Scott Rolen "understands how to establish a productive atmosphere?"

What, you don't think a never-ending feud with your manager is productive?

TSN: Fraley: Releasing Frank Thomas makes the Blue Jays better

TSN: Fraley: Desperately Seeking Web Page Hits

"That the Chicago White Sox won the World Series in 2005 when he was not around did not speak well of Thomas. "

That the writer misses obvious facts does not speak well of him.

White Sox 2005, F Thomas parttime player, win 99 games.
White Sox 2006, F Thomas not there, miss playoffs.

A's 2005, no F thomas, finish 2nd.
A'2 2006, with F Thomas, win division.

Oh, and Big Papi shows no signs of coming out of his slump either, and he clogs the bases. Ortiz is the last to realize he is finished. The Red Sox should cut him.

There's some impressive Freely Available Talent at DH this season. The 'replacement' DH are quite possibly better than the bottom third of the actual DH/PH.

Frank Thomas
Barry Bonds
Mike Piazza
Sammy Sosa
Ryan Klesko
Kenny Lofton

That doesn't even include the AAAA types stuck in the minors.

Thomas shows no signs of breaking out of his slump. Why? Because he's in a slump, duh!

Thomas' recent starts

2006: .167/.231/.400 (60 AB)
2007: .197/.329/.328 (61 AB)
2008: .167/.306/.333 (60 AB)

Thomas' recent finishes

2006: .286/.401/.567
2007: .287/.383/.500
2008: ??????????????

Is this comedy on the part of Fraley?

Pointing to a 35-AB stretch?

Talking about "clogging the bases"?

Talking about "replacing" someone "in the clubhouse"? With a guy who was run out of town last year? (I like Rolen and I didn't follow the St. Louis situation closely enough to confirm my suspicion that LaRussa was more to blame, but one thing is clear: Rolen didn't exactly blend into the woodwork either in St. Louis or in Philly.)

Declaring someone who hit for a 140 and 125 OPS+ the last two years to be "finished," in light of 35 at bats, is flat idiocy.

Nothing indicated that Thomas, five weeks from his 40th birthday, was going to break out of the slump. In his last 35 at-bats with Toronto, he had only four hits—all singles—and one RBI.

Is there historical precedent for a hitter of Thomas' skills losing it IMMEDIATELY as Fraley seems to suggest?

Is there historical precedent for a hitter of Thomas' skills losing it IMMEDIATELY as Fraley seems to suggest?

Willie Mays in 1973? I would guess it's usually injury related, which doesn't seem to be an issue with Thomas.

Thomas didn't lose it imediately silly, he lost it last April. And then he found it later in the season, but now he's lost it again. Ah well, it comes back when thew weather heats up.

Willie Mays in 1973? I would guess it's usually injury related, which doesn't seem to be an issue with Thomas.

The Mays situation doesn't really help much as a precedent. At that point Mays was, as you say, extremely brittle. He'd done well through most of 1972, but then was hurt/ineffectual in September. He was hurt and terrible through the early part of '73, but then actually did all right through June/July/August, only to get hurt again in September. The Mays we so painfully saw stumbling through the WS that October had already lost it and gained it somewhat back and lost it again.

Mays's final breakdown was agonizingly iterative; there wasn't anything sudden about it.

this ship is sinking.

Thomas deserved to lose playing time. He was the weakest link in the lineup. He deserved to get part time play to work his way out of it, and I'm sure he would have had it...

Except he decided to make public accusations against ownership. The Jays have had those issues before and I think it was a good idea to end them quickly.


Players are not OWED playing time. The best performers should be on the field on any given day.

Players are not OWED playing time. The best performers should be on the field on any given day.

Right - Rod Barajas is a stud.

It isn't supposed to be...or going to be...Barajas. It is going to be Adam Lind. Apparently he got a stiff neck right at the wrong time.

Frank Thomas is a great hitter, and a first ballot HOFer. That said, in the last two seasons, Frank Thomas has reached base via non-HR hit, walk, or HBP 383 times. He has scored only 75 times. That's a rate of 19.6 percent. In contrast, Jose Reyes has scored 43.2 percent of the time he has been a baserunner the last two seasons. If anyone "Clogs the bases" it's Thomas these days. The man's on-base percentage is not as valuable as almost any other player, since he just doesn't move too well anymore.

Is he better than Jose Vidro at DH? Absolutely, and the Mariners need to pick him up.

That said, in the last two seasons, Frank Thomas has reached base via non-HR hit, walk, or HBP 383 times. He has scored only 75 times. That's a rate of 19.6 percent.

Isn't that an indictment more of his teammates than it is of him?

I remember somebody did a study of all the times Thomas reached base a year or two ago and found he'd cost the Blue Jays or A's something like three runs compared to an average runner who would have reached base the same amount.

He has scored only 75 times. That's a rate of 19.6 percent. In contrast, Jose Reyes has scored 43.2 percent of the time he has been a baserunner the last two seasons.

Reyes is arguably the best baserunner in baseball and a leadoff hitter. That's not really a fair comparison. That said, Thomas' lack of mobility is something that takes away from his value as a player.

I remember somebody did a study of all the times Thomas reached base a year or two ago and found he'd cost the Blue Jays or A's something like three runs compared to an average runner who would have reached base the same amount.

That might be a little low but I wouldn't be surprised if it's something like that. It's hard to add/lose a ton of value on the basepaths.

Frank Thomas is a great hitter, and a first ballot HOFer. That said, in the last two seasons, Frank Thomas has reached base via non-HR hit, walk, or HBP 383 times. He has scored only 75 times. That's a rate of 19.6 percent. In contrast, Jose Reyes has scored 43.2 percent of the time he has been a baserunner the last two seasons.

There's no question that Jose Reyes is a much better baserunner than Frank Thomas. That said, your comparison is incredibly biased by context.

1) Reyes had much better hitters (Castillo/Wright/Beltran) behind him than Thomas (Chavez/Payton and Hill/Overbay).
2) Reyes was much more likely to bat and get on base with none out than Thomas.
3) Reyes hit a lot more doubles and triples than Thomas; Thomas usually started on 1B when he didn't homer.
4) Reyes stole a ton of bases. The stolen bases have value in themselves; they don't make his OBP more valuable.

On the other hand, Thomas' SLG is more valuable Reyes'. Reyes hits infield singles that don't advance runners from first to third or second to home; Thomas doesn't. Reyes is speedy enough to stretch singles into doubles, but the runner on 1B doesn't always have time to make it home. When Thomas hits a double, the bases clear.

Frank Thomas and Mark Teixeira were nearly identical hitters from 2006-2007. Teixeira has more value because of his fielding and age, but Thomas' bat has been extremely productive over the past couple years.

Isn't that an indictment more of his teammates than it is of him?

Not if you watched him play... i'm generally not one for these clogging the bases guys... but well... he is slow as anything.;

#5, I think that may be understating it. Looks like freely available dh is as good as the median, and possibly as good as the top 3rd.

Not if you watched him play... i'm generally not one for these clogging the bases guys... but well... he is slow as anything.;

Heh ... I remember the deep doggie doo-doo I got into last year when I wrote on THT that Frank Thomas's OBP is blunted because he clogs the bases.

Folks focused on the "clogs the bases" phrase to the exclusion of everything else. What I said was that his lack of speed made his OBP less effective than it otherwise could be due to that (and the hitters behind him).

I wasn't dissing OBP ... I was stating that Thomas's OBP wasn't really all that useful to the Jays last year. When I wrote that, I think Thomas had scored six times over the 46 times he reached base via the walk (and was passing on hittable pitches early in the count with men on base looking to walk rather than hit).

Good times.

Best Regards

John

That said, in the last two seasons, Frank Thomas has reached base via non-HR hit, walk, or HBP 383 times. He has scored only 75 times. That's a rate of 19.6 percent. In contrast, Jose Reyes has scored 43.2 percent of the time he has been a baserunner the last two seasons.

This is meaningless without considering factors such as who hit behind the respective players, and (as Danny pointed out) that as the leadoff hitter, Reyes will reach base with 0 outs a lot.

Reyes is of course the better baserunner, but the comparison you've presented is absurd.

Heh ... I remember the deep doggie doo-doo I got into last year when I wrote on THT that Frank Thomas's OBP is blunted because he clogs the bases.

It seemed that this article convinced you otherwise:

Never eat the calamari at a bris Posted: November 14, 2007 at 04:38 PM (#2614864)
The problem wasn't Thomas, it was the guys hitting behind him. After Aaron Hill it got scary ... usually a bunch of low OBP/SLG guys.

Yes, it takes a lot to get him around the bases so it's incumbent that John Gibbons puts guys behind him who can do that.

Best Regards

John

I see no contradiction--what am I missing?

Best Regards

John

In a foot race from home to 1B, who wins?

a) Frank Thomas
b) Bengie Molina
c) Jason Giambi

I see no contradiction--what am I missing?

Perhaps I'm reading it wrong, but I see one saying it's mostly Thomas' fault and the other saying it's mostly not his fault.

The article Danny linked to is the one I was thinking of in post 18.

d)Home Plate

Perhaps I'm reading it wrong, but I see one saying it's mostly Thomas' fault and the other saying it's mostly not his fault.

Actually, it is both parties "fault" in that Thomas's fault was a lack of speed (and passing on hittable pitches) and it was Gibby's fault for not recognizing that he needed enough bats behind him to get him around the bases.

The main points were walk + notable lack of speed + poor hitters behind him = OBP not resulting in runs as often as it should.

Best Regards

John

I can't imagine that Thomas and Giambi are as slow as Molina.

I think the most pertinent numbers here are:

- $10mm
- 379 PA

The Jays simply didn't want to have his '09 option kick in.

Also, I don't think Bonds is "Freely Available." I think he's gonna want a lot of $$ to play.

and was passing on hittable pitches early in the count with men on base looking to walk rather than hit

"passing on hittable pitches" -- by whose judgment? Yours? Or the guy with two MVPs?

"looking to walk" -- so now you read his mind, as well?

"passing on hittable pitches" -- by whose judgment? Yours? Or the guy with two MVPs?

Indeed. We may be better than Frank Thomas at assessing the value of a hitter's performance; but we're not better than him at knowing how to hit major league pitching.

Players are not OWED playing time. The best performers should be on the field on any given day.

Right - Rod Barajas is a stud.

Don't forget Shannon Stewart, Joe Inglett, Matt Stairs, and Marcus Scutaro. Geez, Lind couldn't make this team and Reed Johnson and Thomas have been cut. Really, why is Toronto considered a team that can challenge Boston and New York? And, why the hell are they just giving away talent?

There's a note in the Bill James Gold Mine pointing out that Bengie Molina never once took an extra base on a hit last year. He never went from first to third on a single, never scored from first on a double, never even scored from second on a single. That's slow.

Srul, Ray--that was Thomas's self-assessment on a Blue Jays' pre game radio show. He said he had to change his mindset from looking for balls to drive than passing on hittable pitches hoping to walk.

Thomas's numbers when I first wrote that (approximate considering when my column ran Friday, I tried to have it finished Tues/Wed. due to other commitments)... .226/.370/.392.

After I wrote it... .310/.381/.539.

He made the adjustment that he said on the show about that time.

Best Regards

John

He said he had to change his mindset from looking for balls to drive than passing on hittable pitches hoping to walk.

Can you re-type this sentence? I am having a hard time understanding what you are trying to say here.

That the Chicago White Sox won the World Series in 2005 when he was not around did not speak well of Thomas.

I have seen this point made very often, and every time it gets stupider. Big Frank played in 34 games in '05, and collected 105 ABs (with 16 walks and 3 sac flies). Through those at bats, he slugged .590, including 12 HRs. He OPS+'ed 131. And although obviously many other factors played a part, the White Sox were 24-10 in those games.

Compare that to the next best DH option in '05: Carl Everett. In 135 games, Carl put up an OPS+ of 94, with 23 HR. From Fangraphs, he had a WPA that year of .55. Frank had a WPA of .54, in 100 less games. I feel like it's pretty safe to assume that Big Frank would have outperformed Jurassic Carl significantly had he been in the lineup all year, and would have freed up Carl to be more of a 4th outfielder type. This would have actually made the team better (even if he didn't keep up his 28.6% HR/FB ratio, which is redic), as guys like this fail to see.

I think the fact that the Sox won speaks well of pitching, not badly of a great player. Not like that's been beaten to death already.

Except he decided to make public accusations against ownership. The Jays have had those issues before and I think it was a good idea to end them quickly.

The Jays have had these issues before, because frankly, they are second rate organization that uses option years as bait to bring in free agents and then tries to find loopholes to avoid allowing those players to use them.

And in this case Frank didn't really make "accusations". The team told him, in not so many words, that he would not be allowed to earn his option. They could have "rested" him, but instead told him he wouldn't be getting much playing time for the remainder of the season.

There's a note in the Bill James Gold Mine pointing out that Bengie Molina never once took an extra base on a hit last year. He never went from first to third on a single, never scored from first on a double, never even scored from second on a single. That's slow.

But Molina did score from second on a single in the third inning Sunday! I didn't see it, but it was the talk of the radio crew in the postgame. Alas, even though they talked about it a lot, nobody described the circumstances that made it possible. Single to center by Rowand is all I know.

they are second rate organization that uses option years as bait to bring in free agents and then tries to find loopholes to avoid allowing those players to use them.

I'm just curious - what other players have the Blue Jays done this to?

Also, and these are some general questions for the thread: What is the threshold below which Frank Thomas would have to hit for the rest of the year for people to say that the Jays organization did the right thing by cutting Frank Thomas? In other words, what would his performance have to drop to for it to be a good idea for the Jays to act to avoid having to pick up his option? Or have people just determined that no level of performance, no matter how low, justifies cutting a player to avoid paying him far more than he's likely to be worth?

I feel like it's pretty safe to assume that Big Frank would have outperformed Jurassic Carl significantly had he been in the lineup all year, and would have freed up Carl to be more of a 4th outfielder type. This would have actually made the team better (even if he didn't keep up his 28.6% HR/FB ratio, which is redic), as guys like this fail to see.

A-yup. Thomas' presence made Everett a whole lot more useful, because he wasn't as exposed. Check out Everett's lines:

With Thomas: .314/.324/.578
W/o Thomas: .234/.318/.397

I think Bud Selig should establish a new rule that from now on, Frank Thomas can skip second base and run directly across the middle of the diamond when he so desires. It'll be a reward for not taking steroids.

Except that's an AWFUL long way, 127.27 feet! That seems more like a punishment than a reward for someone of Thomas's footspeed.

I'm just curious - what other players have the Blue Jays done this to?

One of the ways that J.P. Ricciardi has always seemed to sweeten his free agent offers through the years to combat the disadvantage of luring players to Canada is by handing outrageous dollar figures on an option year, with no intention of ever picking it up (See Bengie Molina: ’06 contract of $3 million + $1.5 million bonus, plus an option year for $7.5 million which J.P. bought out for a half-million). Alex Rios has a $13.5 million club option in 2015. He may never see it. But the question is whether the method with the Big Hurt was a wrong way to hedge a bet. Consider that at the same time as the Jays gave Thomas his contract, they gave one to catcher Gregg Zaun with a vested option for ’09 that he had little or no chance of reaching (i.e. 270 games played in ’07-’08).
http://thestar.blogs.com/baseball/2008/04/mailbag-frank-t.html

The Koskie contract was handled similarly, and Burnett and Wells have opt-outs which act like optoins.

He said he had to change his mindset from looking for balls to drive than passing on hittable pitches hoping to walk.

Thomas said when he was batting, he was looking to walk and not to hit.

Best Regards

John

The Jays have had these issues before, because frankly, they are second rate organization that uses option years as bait to bring in free agents and then tries to find loopholes to avoid allowing those players to use them

.

That's disingenuous and you shouldn't get your talking points from Richard Griffin. Gregg Zaun was a free agent who was given an option that he was incredibly unlikely to reach. Zaun and his agent were well aware of that during negotiations, especially considering he didn't get full-time playing time in 2006 (the year before he signed the contract). Zaun couldn't have had any reasonable expectations he would reach that option. His career high in games in 133 and his second-highest total at the time he signed the contract was 107 (it is since 110). To reach that option he would have had to set a career-high in games played in two consecutive years when he was 36 and 37. If he had a better offer during his free agency that was for more money than the guaranteed amount the Jays would pay him, but less than the total including the option, he should have taken it. I would have advised him to if I was his agent (assuming his only consideration was money). Would you have advised differently? The Jays didn't give Zaun an option that they used a loophole to avoid triggering. They gave him an option in the same way Ramon Ortiz would get a bonus for winning the Cy Young Award.

Bengie Molina was given a straight club option. The Jays chose not to exercise it. That's part of baseball, unless you want to declare that all club options are used as loopholes. That's the case on Rios' contract, as well. Plus, Rios will be well worth that money in 2015 if he continues a normal career trajectory. If not, he's already made $50 million or so over the previous years of the contract.

AJ Burnett was given a player opt-out option, which he will likely use, and that's likely going to wind up being detrimental to the Jays.

Sure, Thomas can claim he was cut in large part to avoid him reaching the PA option. But to claim that's a pattern in Toronto is wrong.

And in this case Frank didn't really make "accusations". The team told him, in not so many words, that he would not be allowed to earn his option. They could have "rested" him, but instead told him he wouldn't be getting much playing time for the remainder of the season.

Except, of course, that they said nothing of the sort. He told he was losing playing time due to lack of production.


Look, it seems like everyone thinks that you either have to be a J.P. fanboy or treat him like he is an idiot. The reality is never so clear cut. Benching Thomas was the right thing to do. Cutting him (once he decided to vent) was the right thing to do. Whenever you try to add different arguments in, you muddy the waters. Some people bring up cutting Reed Johnson to show that cutting Thomas was wrong. That makes no sense. Releasing Johnson in favour of Stewart was always a bad idea.

Sometimes they can make the right decisions and sometimes they can make the wrong ones.

Rusty,
Except that JP is like a little kid with ADD- he brings players in, puts them on a pedestal, and then gets sick of them prematurely. He did this with Koskie, insisting he needed Glaus to replace him. Then he got sick of Glaus and got Rolen, who is more in the Koskie mold (Koskie's concussion was not forseeable- he rebounded after leaving Toronto and before being injured). In the process, he wasted a lot of money. JP has spent a good deal of his tenure getting out from under his mistakes, and the mistakes wouldn't look so bad if he didn't sour on guys so quickly. It's laughable. I'm expecting to see Overbay dealt very soon. The Thomas move was premature. Joe Sheehan pointed this out on BPro yesterday, and it's hard to argue with his logic:

Whether motivated by baseball or money, the Jays released their DH and #5 hitter based on a 10-game slump. Thomas was unquestionably awful over the last two weeks. If only there were evidence of him emerging from similar early-season stretches to be productive over the course of a season. It’s not like he hit .097/.243/.129 in a stretch of 37 PA last April, then went on to hit .285/.382/.500 afterwards. No, wait, that happened. Of course, that’s another small sample size. It’d be something else if, in 72 PA, he hit .154/.236/.323. That would be meaningful. He could never come back from that and hit .289/.403/.575 the rest of the way. What? He did that in 2006? Boy, I don’t know. Keep reading things like this, and you’d think that stretches of ineffectiveness weren’t all that meaningful when put up against Thomas’ career. But that would mean the Blue Jays had made a bad baseball decision, and that doesn’t seem…. No, wait.

JP's just kind of a dick when it comes to dealing with players. It would be OK if it didn't involve wasting resources, but often that's the consequence of his style. This was a dumb move, especially considering it in the string of other moves made leading up to it. Thomas (and his salary) were resources, and JP squandered them. That's it. He could have worked with Thomas to get him out of this short slump, he could have cut Shannon Stewart instead (who I like, but he doesn't have Thomas's record of success and can only play LF), he could have never cut Reed Johnson in the first place, ect.

In a foot race from home to 1B, who wins?

a) Frank Thomas
b) Bengie Molina
c) Jason Giambi

Molina comes in last and it's not even close. He's the only player in MLB who literally looks like he's running in slow motion. It's actually jarring watching him on TV... makes you think they cut to a slo-mo replay when you weren't paying attention.

"passing on hittable pitches" -- by whose judgment? Yours? Or the guy with two MVPs?

"looking to walk" -- so now you read his mind, as well?

If you watched his seven pitch AB vs. Phil Hughes back in the first week of the season this year, it completely appeared his only goal was to walk. He took seven pitches, all of which were around the plate, the bat never left his shoulder, got called out on strikes, and went batshitcarzy on the ump, and was ejected.

So wait, a hitter looks bad at the plate when he's slumping? Cut the SOB!! Could it be that a player who has a career .420 OB% knows when he's slumping to just try to work a walk against a pitcher he's having a hard time reading/hitting? Thomas is precisely the guy you trust to be the judge of his own abilities and limits, not Rod Barrajas, Adam Lind or even the Mighty Matt Stairs. JP treated him like Dusty Baker treated Hee Seop Choi and Corey Patterson.

Except that JP is like a little kid with ADD- he brings players in, puts them on a pedestal, and then gets sick of them prematurely. He did this with Koskie, insisting he needed Glaus to replace him. Then he got sick of Glaus and got Rolen, who is more in the Koskie mold (Koskie's concussion was not forseeable- he rebounded after leaving Toronto and before being injured). In the process, he wasted a lot of money. JP has spent a good deal of his tenure getting out from under his mistakes, and the mistakes wouldn't look so bad if he didn't sour on guys so quickly. It's laughable. I'm expecting to see Overbay dealt very soon. The Thomas move was premature. Joe Sheehan pointed this out on BPro yesterday, and it's hard to argue with his logic:

While I disagree with you regarding the wisdom of releasing Thomas, you're bang on in your assessment of Mr. Ricciardi.

Best Regards

John

But Molina did score from second on a single in the third inning Sunday! I didn't see it, but it was the talk of the radio crew in the postgame. Alas, even though they talked about it a lot, nobody described the circumstances that made it possible. Single to center by Rowand is all I know.

Ground ball to the shortstop side of second with the center fielder shading to right-center, followed by an off-line throw that bounced short of the mound and was cut off.

If you watched his seven pitch AB vs. Phil Hughes back in the first week of the season this year, it completely appeared his only goal was to walk. He took seven pitches, all of which were around the plate, the bat never left his shoulder, got called out on strikes, and went batshitcarzy on the ump, and was ejected.

How does one take 7 pitches in an AB?

ZIPS had Thomas at .248/.352/.456 before the season and the average DH in Toronto at .277/.355/.489. If ZIPS was right (and the early season struggles might provide some evidence of that), Thomas is at this stage of his career a significantly below average player, bearing in mind his lack of speed.

The problem is not that, but how you get him to accept the reduced role that his performance might merit. This will presumably be some other team's issue.

By not biting on the 4-2 slider that just caught the corner?

How does one take 7 pitches in an AB?

Maybe he was right to get upset at the ump for having to hit in a 4-2 count.

EDIT: Damn you, Kyle S! Damn you and your faster typing skills!

Yeah, if it ended in a strikeout it could have been only 6 pitches, without him hitting at least one foul ball. Unless one of the pitches was disallowed because the catcher called time or something.

Can you say he "took the pitch" if he tried to foul it off and succeeded? Is that something people say?

Can you say he "took the pitch" if he tried to foul it off and succeeded? Is that something people say?

Maybe Hughes threw at his head and mistakenly hit the bat.

He took seven pitches, all of which were around the plate, the bat never left his shoulder, got called out on strikes, and went batshitcarzy on the ump, and was ejected.

To be fair to Thomas, the pitch he was called out on was worse than the previous pitch, which he took for a ball. It looked that way to me and the on-screen graphic showed this was true. You can argue that the pitch was too close to be taking on a full count anyway, but if this was the basis of Thomas' argument he had a legitimate point.

"Is that something people say?"

I don't know about people as a whole, but it's not something I'd say.

The 4/3/08 box score shows 7 pitches ending in a strikeout looking. He fouled off the 6th pitch (which Gameday shows as a hanging curve) and watched an inside fastball for strike 3.

Well, either way, that one AB that some of us vaguely remember sure proves the point at hand, doesn't it.

Ya, I didn't remember him fouling off a pitch and obviously mistyped seven, when i meant six. The point remains for me anyway, that the AB was telling to watch.

Well, either way, that one AB that some of us vaguely remember sure proves the point at hand, doesn't it.

Bringing the AB up wasn't trying to prove the point athand in of itself. It was one very recent AB that followed what was being said. No need to be a d!ckhead about it.

I remember that AB vividly. Thomas had a legit beef, the ump knew he was wrong, but because Thomas showed him up and made a scene about the mistake, he had to be thrown out. What else could he do? announce he was changing his mind?

In a foot race from home to 1B, who wins?

a) Frank Thomas
b) Bengie Molina
c) Jason Giambi

THE SPECTATORS!