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Dave Kingman averaged 50 walks a season. Ryan Howard averages 100.
I don't think its that crazy a comparison. Howard make walk more, but otherwise, the combination of all or nothing when they swing, very low batting averages, lots of strikeouts, great power when they do make contact, and no defensive value whatsoever is pretty close to me.
It's pretty clear he is saying they should trade for picks, which, uh, doesn't work so well.
Look for the forlorn San Diego Padres to start dumping veterans soon.
Sandy Alderson has stressed the importance of extra draft picks since he took over as the team's CEO in 2005. Alderson believes the extra picks will help rebuild a depleted farm system.
The Padres will have three extra choices among the first 111 picks overall in the June draft. That will give them 11 extra draft picks in three drafts during Alderson's tenure.
The Padres could dangle righthander Greg Maddux, lefthander Randy Wolf, catcher Michael Barrett, outfielder Brian Giles and first baseman-pinch hitter Tony Clark for potential draft-pick compensation.
Howard has a .281 career average in 1657 ML at-bats.
It's a stupid comparison.
Edit - The Fielder comp is only relevant if you think Howard will take a similar disinterest in staying in shape. Given that he lost weight coming into this year, I highly doubt he follows the Fielder route.
All that being said, I agree with the general point that the Phils would be crazy to do 20 per season.
Its stupid to say he's been Dave Kingman up to now - he's been a lot better. Its not stupid to say that there's some danger that he could become Dave Kingman - its real hard to keep up a decent batting average if you strike out more than 200 times a year.
Best Regards
John
That's just a silly comment to make for a dominant player who has had a bad couple of months. If Howard was "becoming" increasingly like Kingman, it's hard to see from this split:
Edit: 2007 OPS
Pre All Star 933
Pos All Star 1016
disagree, and everything that the front office is saying, is that this is not going to happen. It is not even June yet, and the West race is wide open. Its not like Arizona or LA is running away with this thing.
The Padres are four games behind the Mets in the win column, and you don't hear anybody claiming the Mets are out of it. Peavy is back next week, and the Padres just traded for more pitching help. this division is far from decided.
go padres!
? San Diego is 10.5 games out of first place.
The Mets are 5 and a half games ahead of San Diego. If the Mets were 10.5 games out of first and 10 games out of the Wild Card and were behind every single team in the league people would probably be saying they were out of it.
I think it's relevant. The fall won't be as quick because Howard will stay in shape a little longer, but once just a little of that bat speed goes, he'll start hitting for much lower averages. Striking out 200 times a season catches up with you eventually.
Atta boy. Thats the spirit.
The D Backs may not win the division. If they don't the Dodgers will. Padres have NO shot this year. Sorry.
Howard isn't Kingman, he has much better pitch recognition/ plate discipline.
The comparison between Howard and Fielder shouldn't be dismissed so readily.
Fielder at 26 (BBREF neutralized stats): .290/.392/.617 (54 hr 143 rbi)182/79 K/uiBB
Howard at 26 (BBREF neutralized stats):.302/.413/.636 (55 hr 131 rbi) 181/71 K/uiBB
Fielder at 27 (BBREF neutralized stats): .265/.351/.520 (45 hr 137 rbi)151/66 K/uiBB
Howard at 27 (BBREF neutralized stats):. .259/.381/.565 (45 hr 122 rbi) 199/72 K/uiBB
[note: Howard's OBP and K/bb advantage disappears when you eliminate intentional walks, his pitch recognition/discipline/contact skills are a match for Fielder's - except slightly worse.
Back when he was 26/27, Fielder's "on contact" numbers were phenomenal (Ruthian), and he wasn't able to sustain them at such an unprecedented level.
I see two factors- one positive, one negative
1: Fielder's k/bb numbers are not only like Fielder's, but slightly worse- and trending the wrong way.
2: Howard is in better physical condition than Fielder ever was, and so far does not appear to be following the Cecil Fielder training regime- it's not hard to anticipate that Howard at 32 will be in MUCH better shape than Fielder was at 32.
I think (imho) that Howard's career will resemble Fielder's to some extent, largely because I think his inability to make contact makes duplicating 2006 unreasonable, he won't post another .300 average or 167 OPS+, but since he seems to be in shape and keeping himself in shape he'll probably post a few more productive seasons in the 125 OPS+ range than Fielder was able to do.
Statistically he's not THAT disimilar to Vaughn (Mo not Greg), and I think Szym said his system sees Thome as the best comp. (I think Thome's discipline/ pitch recognition is significantly better than Howard's- and why Thome has been able to maintain his absurd on contact #s for such a long time-)
2. Cecil Fielder
3. Calvin Pickering
4. Mo vaughn
5. Boog Powell
6. Travis Hafner
7. Jim Gentile
8. David Ortiz
9. Carlos Delgado
10. Sam Horn
1 of these is not like the other.
Pickering?
Horn?
If you use BBREF's neutralize function Superjew is a surprisingly good match, not as many Ks, but per at bat a good match otherwise...
I don't think Ortiz is a good match, his batting eye is SO much better than Howard's...
Um, yeah. In what way are they comparable? Even if the comparison is based only on rate stats regardless of PT, they aren't close.
Don't believe in MLEs?
It's not like Horn had much more of a career than Pickering...
Gentile: 1957-1966
Powell: 1961-1977
Epstein: 1966-1974
Everyone else was late 80s to present
Big men, 1Bs, and Pecota uses MLEs in their comps, and Pickering was a very similar hitter to Howard in the minors, but then so is/was this guy
If you add Pickering's MLEs to his 300 MLB PAs, you'd get a statistical profile that was similar to Howard's- tons of homers walks and Ks, only worse...
I think we agree on this. The Fielder comp is really only relevant if Howard does what Fielder does and completely fall apart physically. I mean, the Fielder path - just awesome followed by collapse - is not just some general path, it's a specific path followed by one player for a specific reason. To assume that Howard's similar power/k/bb numbers will somehow lead to a similar disdain for physical fitness is a big leap.
It wasn't awesome followed by collapse
it was awseowm (167 OPS+) followed by very good, 133, followed by several decent 110-125 years, before he ate himself out of the league
What he also had in his awesome year(s) were almost unprecedented on contact (ie when not striking out) numbers, 167 was unsustainable even if he didn't eat himself out of the league.
I fully expect Hpward to outlast Fielder as a productive player, but I don't expect him to be "awesome" for significantly longer than Fielder was.
I obviously disagree. Its not even June yet, and 10 games is nothing. Not in this division.
yeah, 'cus that can't be made up in four months.
You're right, that was a poor choice of words for Fielder's path. I think I was conflating the original Howard -> Kingman with Fielder. But Fielder's weight was not just a late career thing, it kept him from being an elite player for more than one year.
I think comps can work as a general tool (ZiPS, PECOTA), but just picking out one person and a few similar variables seems a bit too speculative.
10 Games is nothing? In your world maybe. How many teams that fall 10 games back at ANY point in the season go on to make the playoffs? It happens. It's not impossible. After all they haven't been eliminated yet. But it's so improbable , as to make your hyperbole quite amusing.
The Race is "Wide Open" ....well yeah....for the Dodgers. But not for the Padres. 10 games is "Nothing"?.
Sheesh...and I thought I was a hopeless fanboy.
The second bit is indeed hyperbole, but then so is your first part. The Pads are 10 games out (of the playoffs) on May 28. Last year the Rockies were 8 games out on July 2, the Cubs 7.5 back on June 23, and the Yankees 8.5 back on May 29. None of those are 10 of course, but all are quite improbable, and I'd argue the Rox were in worse shape.
As for recent divisional winners, the 2007 Phils of course were 7 back on Sep 12, the 2006 Twins were 12.5 back on May 27, both much worse than the pads right now.
But the odds are very stacked against it. Not only that it happens with ANY team in the first place, but also you have to add the probability, (0r lack thereof) that team will be the Padres. I never said it was impossible. There is always a mathematical chance until you are eliminated. But citing this team of that doesn't do ANYTHING to bolster the Padres chances.
Me saying the Padres have NO SHOT is only about 1 % removed from reality. Thats not exactly hyperbole.
The Padres always looked like a team that would have no offense, and issues with age in a few key spots, as well as depth and outfield defense. And something HAS happened to this team....obviously, and SHOULD have changed his mind. Their best pitcher is on the DL with a sore a elbow and hasn't thrown off a mound yet. The offseason CF signing is no longer on the team.
This isn't a D backs vs. Padres thing....The D Backs might do well to play .500 ball the rest of the season and end up 85-77 for all I know. I'm not thumping my chest here. The Padres are not very good, and will struggle just to finish the season at .500 this year.
No, it's saying it's impossible, which as far removed from 1% as possible.
Of course it is.
But, almost any reasonable comp list, whether it be BBREF's or BPRos, for Howard, has a disproportionate number of guys with high, but short peaks and careers that ended in their earlier 30s, and not all these guys ate themselves out of the league like Fielder.
Howard is a 1B/DH, he's a seriously poor defensive 1B, he has to hit at least 120 to be a good regular (last few years the average 1B has a 116 OPS+). He's a career 145 OPS+ hitter- which is terrific in and of itself, but a poor 1B hitting 145 is probably no more valuable to a team than a good defensive CF hitting 115 (average CF hits 101)
He's gotten to 145 with the greatest on contact numbers in THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE GAME, if he hit like Ruth on contact that 145 OPS+ would be more like 130- very good, but he's a poor defensive 1B.
Howard and his agent, by all accounts, really believe that Howard is an all-time great hitter- and so, I suspect that any offer by the Phillies that doesn't offer to make Howard one of the absolute highest paid players in the game will be seen as a great insult. Personally I think if I was a GM there is at least 10 other 1Bs I'd rather have going forward.
you have learned well, grasshopper. :-)
On Howard, the K rate has really gotten out of control. Earlier he was at 1 per 3 AB -- really high but ... well outrageous maybe even but ... it's a lot better than the 40% he's been at the last season plus. His on-contact numbers last year were right in line with his amazing career numbers (and the walk rate a little higher) but his OPS+ dropped 23 points primarily because of all those Ks. This season, the on-contact numbers have cratered (and the walk rate is down some -- maybe all intentional as he's on pace for about half as many as the last two seasons).
I do expect him to hit better from here on out. His "true" on-contact talent probably is in the 400/800 range (Ruth/Thome) and he's way below that this season. In fact, even I was almost starting to believe he'd set the new standard.** But at a K-rate of 2 per 5 AB, even that translates to 240/480 overall BA/SLG and that's just not elite.
** I think he still has a good shot at setting the new career standard. His late start means he didn't have any development years in the majors. Once his ML numbers start to decline, he'll probably be out of the game quickly. So his career numbers will probably be heavily weighted towards his prime and he's got a long way to drop before his career numbers fall below 400/800 (he's currently at about 430/900).
Comparing to Kingman is hard because of era differences I think. Kingman was the big strikeout guy of his day ... and K'd 1 per 3.7 AB. There are lots of guys now with that kind of K-rate. Kingman's on-contact numbers were nothing special by today's standards: 324/656. Grady Sizemore does better than that (363/628).
Fixed.
edit.
1 out, tie game, bottom of the 10th, RHP on the mound, pitcher due up. The Cubs, with Mike Fontenot, Henry Blanco, and Jim Edmonds on the bench, PH with Fontenot.
What's Edmonds doing there again?
So...Lou, enough with parsing words, it's boring. Tell me....how much of a chance do you give the Padres to make the playoffs?
He was a pop up out machine
His BABIP was a paltry .252
Lots and lots of mile high pop ups
high fly balls
and slow weak grounders....
What was funny is how some teams knew you didn't have to play the IF deep on him (no line drives, very few hard hit ground balls), and some looked at him and their infielders played back on the OF grass (If he was struggling near Mendoza when playing one of those teams- he'd bunt...)
That's insane! They have the worst record in baseball, they've been outscored by 70+ runs, their two best pitchers are on the DL, along with the starting catcher, their closer is sporting an ERA just south of five and we're seriously entertaining questions about whether or not they can stage a rally and make the playoffs?
You can't be serious.
It isn't the 10.5 games that really stands out to me so much as the record itself. It will probably take 90 wins or so to make the playoffs in the NL. To win 90 games, the Padres have to go 70-38 for the rest of the season, or play like a 105 win team. I think that's really, really unlikely with their talent.
The Mets and Yankees have had pretty lousy seasons too. The Mets need to go 65-46 or play like an 94 win team for the rest of the season to end up with 90 wins. The Yankees have to play like a 95 win team to end up with 90 wins.
Even if you think these three teams are all very close in talent, it's just a much harder road for the Padres than it is for the Mets or Yankees simply by nature of how much of a hole they've built for themselves.
I don't think the Padres have a significantly better chance of making the playoffs in 2008 than the Nationals or Pirates. Slightly better, perhaps, but things are very, very bleak.
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