"All this has done is put the Tigers in a better position to contend with us."

Remember when Kenny Williams was mocked around here for that statement? The Sox have some excellent pitching but their offense is still questionable but more can be expected from Thome, Swisher, and Konerko. They are looking like the best team in the AL Central.

The White Sox are playing about as well as can be expected of them.

The real surprise is how much the Tigers and Indians are crapping it up.

I traded Quentin, Derek Lee, Ross Detwiler and Tyler Clippard for Ryan Howard in my Strat-O-Matic league this spring.

Oops.

The White Sox are playing about as well as can be expected of them.

As who expected, though? You were one of the people that thought they should've traded everyone on the team. So, I know you didn't expect them to play this well.

I didn't expect them to, no. They're playing at the very outer limits of what is realistically possible for this team, IMHO.

The offense is doing about what I expected - it's league-average. I didn't expect this much from Quentin, Pierzynski or Crede, but I expected more from Thome, Konerko, and Swisher, so that balances out.

The defense and pitching is much, much better than I ever hoped for. I thought that of Danks, Contreras, and Floyd, one would be good, one mediocre, and one terrible (it didn't matter which was which). Instead, all three have been great, and that's only slightly offset by Buehrle's disappointing performance to date.

The key is staying healthy. They have no minor-league depth, nor do they have the pieces to really improve via trade. The regulars need to keep playing.

If all continues to go well, they'll approach 90 wins. Normally that would be a "close but no cigar" season - a solid second- or third-place finish. But the Indians and Tigers are both giving away the division, so I'm starting to think that a team with 88 wins might just have a shot.

The White Sox are playing about as well as can be expected of them.

Not true. Not with Cabrera, Konerko, Swisher and Thome all well below their established career norms. There will likely be some Quentin, Danks, Floyd regression but there still is a reasonable expectation for improvement here.

There will likely be some Quentin, Danks, Floyd regression

As well as regression from Crede and Pierzynski, maybe Dye, and most of the bullpen.

Konerko's been playing with a hand injury that's completely messed up his ability to hit the ball with authority. I don't know why he's not on the DL.

As well as regression from Crede and Pierzynski, maybe Dye, and most of the bullpen.

No, Crede's at a level he was about at before his back problems. Since he's seemed to clear those up, this level is probably not a bad approximation of his skills.

AJ's above his head, but he may be having a fluke year. He was almost this good two years ago.

I know you hate Dye, but looking at his last 5 years, this isn't far out of line - nor would it be the best year of the five. Plus, he absolutely killed the ball in the 2nd half last season.

Bullpens are fluky, trying to make predictions on what guys do 60 innings a year is beyond me.

Konerko's been playing with a hand injury that's completely messed up his ability to hit the ball with authority. I don't know why he's not on the DL.

Luckily, Ozzie has rediscovered Brian Anderson, so they've been playing Swisher at first lately. They should also bring up Fields and have him play first.

Considering that they've gotten absolutely nothing from second base, and minimal contributions from center field, short stop, and first base, I'd say the offense can improve enough to more than make up for any regression the starters have.

Buehrle and Wasserman are the only two Sox with an ERA+ under 120 this year.

As well as regression from Crede and Pierzynski, maybe Dye, and most of the bullpen.

Dye is right at his career OPS and in between his 2006 and 2007 - a reasonable place to expect him to be. Crede has been better but not spectular. I just don't think the give back exceeds what they will pick up over the next four months - at least offensively. As for the bullpen, you are probably right. But, Cotts, Politte and Hermanson didn't return to sucking until 2006 - maybe Dotel and Linebrink can repeat the trick.

No, Crede's at a level he was about at before his back problems. Since he's seemed to clear those up, this level is probably not a bad approximation of his skills.

The 116 OPS+ he's putting up right now is a career high. I don't know if he's in for a huge fall, but he's playing a bit over his head.

I know you hate Dye

I don't hate Dye - I just question his ability to stay healthy. I also question his ability to handle the outfield defensively at this point.

I loved that signing when Williams did it a few years ago. I didn't like the expensive extension they gave him, though.

AJ's above his head, but he may be having a fluke year. He was almost this good two years ago.

I don't know what this means. Are you saying he's having a fluke year where his true talent is way above his head, and so he should be expected to continue?

I don't know what this means. Are you saying he's having a fluke year where his true talent is way above his head, and so he should be expected to continue?

I think he's having a fluke year. I don't think he'll stay this good. But, I don't think he's going to crumble to uselessness either. Probably something close to what he did just two years ago is a good guess at this point. I guess the two years ago comment points out that while this is a fluke, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

I don't hate Dye - I just question his ability to stay healthy. I also question his ability to handle the outfield defensively at this point.

He's played in 135+ games each of the last 4 seasons, and he's on pace for that again.

His bat plays D well.

$11 million a season is probably a bit much, but it was only two years, and the Sox and Reinsdorf aren't struggling for money. They aren't using this contract (or any) as a reason not to sign someone.

He's played in 135+ games each of the last 4 seasons, and he's on pace for that again.

His bat plays D well.

Well, this is why I added a "maybe" to my estimation of Dye. Of the guys currently hitting well, he's the one I'm least worried about.

other surprises boost the White Sox

I'm with JRE. "Other surprises" are most notably the extent to which the Indians and Tigers both suck so far.

I'm with JRE. "Other surprises" are most notably the extent to which the Indians and Tigers both suck so far.

Agreed. I thought the Sox would win about 87 games and finish ten games out. They're on pace for about 90 wins.

I thought the Sox would win about 87 games and finish ten games out. They're on pace for about 90 wins.

And the White Sox are 11-4 against the Indians and Tigers, 18-19 against everyone else.

I'd say that the lion's share of the surprising season of the White Sox has to do with how bad the Indians and Tigers have been.

AJ is at 114, his career high is 115, but he's been between 83 and 94 the least 4 years, could he maintain a 114 for the whole year? Not likely, but yes.
Konerko has been terrible and likely injured, I'm guessing he either improves, or goes on the DL, and his replacement plays better than Konerko has played.
Uribe- a little worse than usual
Crede- as noted above 116 would be a career high, he did manage a 107 in 150 games in 2006, so 116, while unlikely is certainly possible
Cabrera- a little worse than expected, but having an 86 OPS+ career hitter post a 72 is not unusual
Quentin- likely playing over his head, his career .313/.413/.527 minor league line was compiled in extremely favorable offensive environments, but he's 25 and healthy, his career line is now: .251/ .345/.475- quick guesstimate: .275/.370/.500
Swisher- playing poorly, if not injured will likely hit something like .255/.375/.475 the rest of the way
Dye- hitting right at his 3 year average
Thome- playing poorly, for someone with his narrowness of skills, poor contact rate he's already lasted longer than most of his comps, but he did OPS+ 150 in 2006 and 2007, I don't think he'll hit any worse and he certainly could improve.
I don't think the Sox offensive will be much better or worse the rest of the way, OPS+ of 98? I think they'll finish at 96-100

Pitching: ERA+ of 124-
Uh no, no way jose.
1: Floyd: ERA+ of 147, 25/27 k/bb ratio, .240 BABIP ain't gonna happen.
2: Danks: ERA+ of 144, 4 homers in 57 ip, low (but possibly sustainable) BABIP, expect some regression, very homer prone majors and minors previously, K/bb and BABIP might remain good,
3: Contreras: ERA+ of 141, 3 homers in 68 IP, he'll regress to the 111/125 ERA+ pitcher he was in 2005/06
4: Javy: ERA+ of 122. He can maintain that.
5: Buehrle: ERA+ 82. Someone at BPRo is rejoicing, why is his BABIP spiking and Floyd's sinking? I never could figure out how he pitched well in the past, but given his track record I will adobt ny Glavine mode: "he's a magician, ignore the unimpressive peripherals, he'll make some adjustments and post a 130 ERA+ the rest of the way".

Floyd: Down a lot
Danks: Down a decent amount
Contreras: down a little
Javy: Same:
Buehrle: improve a lot.

A little worse overall.
My guess, the Sox are playing .549 ball now, and will play .520 or so the rest of the way, end up 86-76 (pre-season on Predictatron I had them for a 72-90 record...)

And the White Sox are 11-4 against the Indians and Tigers, 18-19 against everyone else.

I'd say that the lion's share of the surprising season of the White Sox has to do with how bad the Indians and Tigers have been.

I gotta hand it to you, Jerry. Only you could turn the White Sox's excellent play against these two teams into a negative.

On the other hand, if you are like me, and choose to view the Sox glass as half-full, then you might look at these two facts as positives:

1. Kansas City (with its -54 run differential) looks like the worst team in the division. The White Sox haven't played them yet.

2. The White Sox have played only 22 games at home thus far, fewest of any AL team (the Indians have played 32 home games). Presumably they will play better at home than on the road (so far they are winning 59% of home games and 53% of road games).

The key is staying healthy. They have no minor-league depth, nor do they have the pieces to really improve via trade. The regulars need to keep playing.

Again, I'll disagree (somewhat). The White Sox have some options, mainly because of the versatility of Nick Swisher.

-If Thome goes down, Konerko moves to DH, Swisher moves to 1B, and Anderson or Owens moves to CF
-If Konerko goes down, Swisher moves to 1B, and Anderson or Owens moves to CF (or they bring up Fields and try him at 1B)
-If Crede goes down, they insert Fields

The bigger problem created by the decimation of the farm system is that they don't have any chips to use in order to trade for a better 2B. Uribe still sucks (and is hurt), Richar is hurt, and Alexei Ramirez looks clueless a lot of the time and needs to be in AAA.

The bigger problem created by the decimation of the farm system is that they don't have any chips to use in order to trade for a better 2B. Uribe still sucks (and is hurt), Richar is hurt, and Alexei Ramirez looks clueless a lot of the time and needs to be in AAA

They do have Chris Getz down in AAA hitting pretty well. Since Uribe sucks, and Ramirez swings at everything, it may not be a bad idea to give him a shot. Right now, replacement level may actually be a step up from the contributions they've gotten from 2B.

They do have Chris Getz down in AAA hitting pretty well.

Interestingly, Getz has been getting some time in at shortstop recently. He played left field yesterday, and tonight he's the DH. The organization has been making every effort to keep him in the lineup in Charlotte.

And the White Sox are 11-4 against the Indians and Tigers, 18-19 against everyone else.

But break down that 18-19...

Home games, not against the Tigers or Indians: 8-8
Road games, on artificial surfaces: 2-7
Road games, on grass not against the Tigers or Indians: 8-4

Home schedule: Oakland (1-1), Minnesota (3-2), Yankees (1-2), Baltimore (2-1), Angels (1-2),
who are collectively 16 games above .500...

They are poorly built to compete on turf, which explains the poor record there.

Their home schedule has been slightly tough, too.

Can someone explain to me what DeWayne Wise is doing on the team? I realize he was hitting well at AAA, but if DeWayne Wise is the answer, then that must be some really strange question.

Also, Konerko shouldn't be out there AT ALL right now. He was fine in April (801 OPS), and has been horrible in May (503 OPS). He needs to be put on the DL, doesn't he? Per my previous post, I'd go with Swisher at first and Anderson in center. And, if Konerko is going to be out long and you don't trust Anderson, I'd inquire about Scott Hatteberg or (gulp) Corey Patterson.

Danks: Down a decent amount

The addition of a cutter has transformed Danks from a flyball pitcher into a groundball pitcher. He got 3GB for every 4 FB last season, but has swapped that to be 3 GB for every 2 FB. He's essentially cut his FB rate in half. The HR/FB rate is at 7% and will likely go up, but with half the FB, he should, in theory, allow half the HR.

Almost the same can be said for Contreras. He's throwing a cutter, though it might be a harder slider that he's ever thrown before, and has a lot more movement (and zip) on his fastball this season, resulting in a career outlier GB rate.

Can someone explain to me what DeWayne Wise is doing on the team? I realize he was hitting well at AAA, but if DeWayne Wise is the answer, then that must be some really strange question.

I once had a dream that DeWayne Wise won the AL Rookie of the Year with the Blue Jays.

I have no idea why I remembered it.

Also, Konerko shouldn't be out there AT ALL right now. He was fine in April (801 OPS), and has been horrible in May (503 OPS). He needs to be put on the DL, doesn't he? Per my previous post, I'd go with Swisher at first and Anderson in center. And, if Konerko is going to be out long and you don't trust Anderson, I'd inquire about Scott Hatteberg or (gulp) Corey Patterson.

Why not Lofton?

I figured the White Sox would probably be a .500 team and if everything went right, could win the division. So far everything has gone right. But it's still May.

The real problem, as mentioned, is that the White Sox farm system (already weak) was officially gutted in the offseason and their best Minor Leaguers right now are of the Ken Phelps All-Star (though not really that good) variety. Obviously it's a better spot to be in right now if you're the D'Backs or the Rays right now: be in first place AND have a bunch of young talent.

So far everything has gone right.

Thome: .204/.332/.419

Konerko: .206/.322/.329

Cabrera: .242/.302/.322

Swisher: .206/.333/.314

White Sox second basemen: .219/.265/.333

Buehrle: 5.27 ERA

Obviously it's a better spot to be in right now if you're the D'Backs or the Rays right now: be in first place AND have a bunch of young talent.

The Rays remind me a lot of the Pittsburgh Penguins... a team that was really, really bad for a stretch and loaded up on early round picks. Sometimes the improvement is synergistic and everything sort of hits at once. The Rays seem to have a lot of guys on their roster now who they drafted in the first 3 rounds (all Top 80 or so picks).

Don't be greedy, SPBM. 8-)

People's analysis of the White Sox has been too complicated, IMO. As has been said, their offense has been about average, and their pitching/defense has been outstanding. In terms of predicting for the rest of the year, its pretty simple: Do you think their offense is going to be above average, average, or below average? Do you think their pitching/defense is genuinely outstanding? It seems obvious to me that their offense is probably about average, but could play better if things break right, and their pitching is most likely going to regress. All of this adds up to a team that can be expected to play about .500 ball for the rest of the year, but certainly has the potential to be better than that, especially if the hitting improves.

And, if Konerko is going to be out long and you don't trust Anderson, I'd inquire about Scott Hatteberg or (gulp) Corey Patterson.


Or Josh Fields.

Danks: Down a decent amount

Maybe. But, he is only 23, with a real good track record in the minors. Improvement from last year should be expected.

I like John Danks quite a bit. Last year his problem was control, and he seems to have fixed that problem.

I'm rooting for Gavin Floyd, but regression is going to hit that guy hard.

I'm rooting for Gavin Floyd, but regression is going to hit that guy hard.

Floyd has pitched 134-1/3 innings in the majors, and another 106-2/3 innings at AAA, since being acquired by the White Sox. Here's how those innings break down:

AAA: 3.12 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

MLB: 4.29 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

I don't believe that Floyd is going to be a great pitcher, but he can certainly be a capable fifth or even fourth starter (say 95 ERA+).

he can certainly be a capable fifth or even fourth starter (say 95 ERA+).

Which is a considerable step down from the 133 he's posting right now.

Like I said, I'm rooting for him, but he's getting it done with smoke and mirrors.

I think Buehrle needs to turn things around, and quickly, if the Sox want to continue to prevent runs at an above-average pace.

Which is a considerable step down from the 133 he's posting right now.

But let me be clear -- I mean that I can see him posting a 95 ERA+ for the rest of the year, not that "regression is going to hit that guy hard" such that he ends the '08 season with a 95 ERA+.

6IP 6H 1R 1BB 8K for Danks tonight...

6IP 6H 1R 1BB 8K for Danks tonight...

2.87 ERA. This guy just might be a star.