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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

TSN: Pinto: How the heck is the NL outscoring the AL?

So help me...If I see Ted Uhlaender end up in the top 5 in Batting Average, I’ll...I’ll…

Not only is the NL giving more PA to younger players, its younger players tend to be better. Note that at the ages where the NL OPS is higher, it tends to be much higher than it is at the corresponding AL age. Where the AL OPS is higher, the gap is not quite as large. Even in the 31-34 group, the NL is better except at age 34.

This bodes well for the Senior Circuit in the long term. Not only are their hitters producing at a higher rate, but their ages are in the range where we can still expect them to maintain or improve their performances. Meanwhile, AL teams keep signing older players such as Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Torii Hunter to long-term contracts. Over the next few seasons, we may see some AL clubs do what the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies have done recently. Tearing teams down to watch young talent develop resulted in a high scoring National League, even without a designated hitter.

Repoz Posted: May 07, 2008 at 05:37 PM | 10 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetrics

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   1. JJ1986  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 05:08 PM (#2772730)
Since the leagues haven't faced each other yet, a statistical study based just on this year's stats could just mean that the pitching and hitting are more balanced in the American League than in the National League. Simply looking at league stats in a vacuum is the same thing as saying that the PCL has better hitting than the AL because they score more runs per game. There might be other ways to do it, but one way to compare is to look at players who have switched leagues. The premise, though, that more good young position players are coming up in the national league is almost certainly true.
   2. Dinner With Frenchy  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 05:26 PM (#2772746)
Micah. Owings.
   3. Boots Day  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 05:27 PM (#2772747)
It's mostly because Manny Corpas pitches in the National League.
   4. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates)  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 05:30 PM (#2772753)
I like Pinto's work a lot, but I did not buy this article at all.

I particularly do not share his POV, as expressed in his own blog to the effect that:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/026460.php

"I really believe this is the first indication of a seismic shift in the quality of the leagues. It happened twice before. The NL was way ahead of the AL in signing black ballplayers after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and that led to the NL dominating the All-Star game from the 1950s through the early 1980s. Then, the AL was quicker to harvest the talent coming out of Latin America, and AL became the dominant league, taking over the All Star game from the late 1980s through last season. It now appears that the NL discovered that young talent is better talent, and I suspect they will once again return to being the dominant league."

The sample size is too small, and there's too many variables (e.g., AL 3B and C are hitting lower this year to an extent because A-Rod and Posada, who had monster seasons in 2007, are injured/have been injured) that it doesn't take into account.

Furthermore, the AL has 4 of the 5 highest ranked farm systems in baseball (using the below two rankings), so I truly believe that we are not seeing a shift but a blip.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080313&content_id=2423721&vkey=spt2008news&fext;=.jsp&c_id=mlb
http://www.meadowparty.com/blog/?p=160
   5. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 05:38 PM (#2772767)
Since when does higher-scoring = more talented? Why aren't we asking why NL pitchers are more crappy?
   6. Rough Carrigan  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2772836)
How about the weather? Which league has played more games in temperatures under 50 degrees?
   7. scareduck  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 07:15 PM (#2772855)
#4 - perhaps the question is better framed as, why is the AL outpitching the NL?

Also, last time I checked, Colorado is still in the NL.
   8. Rich  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 07:28 PM (#2772868)
I blame the Yankees.
   9. John DiFool2  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 07:28 PM (#2772871)
The more interesting question to me is why the two leagues have tracked each other so closely for as long as the DH has existed. Only from 1994-1997 (and 73-75) did there not appear to be a significant correlation between the two leagues. Why would this happen, when there has been interleague play for only the last ten years (and even then it was/is a small proportion of a team's schedule)? Why couldn't the AL shoot up to 5.3 R/G while the NL drops down to 4.3? Is it tracking a fluctuation in the quality of the balls, or (as in 1989, after Mt. Pinatubo blew its top) is it a function of the weather? Or something else?
   10. ValueArb  Posted: May 07, 2008 at 11:24 PM (#2773300)
Justin. Upton.
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