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Wednesday, November 07, 2007

TSN: Pinto: Marlins are letting the big one, Cabrera, get away

Just how good is Miguel Cabrera? David Pinto takes a look.

One indicator of whether a hitter will reach the Hall of Fame examines how a player has performed when he reaches 22 years old. Now 24, Cabrera has the numbers to indicate he is a future Hall of Famer—and the Marlins should lock him up.

The statistical indicator is 1,000 plate appearances through seasonal age 22. A player’s seasonal age is the age he will be before July 1 of a given season. The following chart shows the probability of a hitter reaching the Hall of Fame if he comes to the plate at least 1,000 times in his career—and those who reach 1,000 at-bats by age 22.

Hitters with 1,000-plus plate appearances, Hall of Fame eligible (excluding players primarily pitchers)
                  Career   By age 22  
Number of players  3002       205  
Reached HOF        139        51  
Probability of HOF 0.046      0.249

Repoz Posted: November 07, 2007 at 09:14 PM | 10 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Florida, Hall of Fame

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1. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 07, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2608805)

Interesting article, since the predictive indicator is not anything that actually involves performing well, just playing three seasons at an early age. Therefore it seems like each case should be viewed individually.

It's easy to forget just how few players establish themselves as regulars every season.

Hitters with 1,000-plus plate appearances, Hall of Fame eligible (excluding players primarily pitchers)

I'd like to see a pitcher who had 1,000-plus plate appearances before age 22. Joe Nuxhall could have done it if he stayed in the rotation from his debut onward.

2. too fat and ugly to play third Posted: November 07, 2007 at 10:41 PM (#2608806)

I don't know anything about that, but Robin Yount had 2869 PA by the end of his age 22 season. By his 23rd birthday, Yount already had about as many plate appearances as Darrin Jackson, Geronimo Berroa, Willie Aikens, Frenchy Bordagaray, or Mike LaValliere had in their entire careers.

3. Le Comble du Bob Dernier Cri Posted: November 07, 2007 at 11:59 PM (#2608872)

Cabrera didn't just have 1,000 PAs through age 22; he had 1,031 through age 21. The list of 1,000 PAs through age 21 is much smaller: only 57 guys. 17 are in the Hall of Fame, though the list also includes Junior, AROD, Rickey, and little Pudge.

4. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: November 08, 2007 at 12:06 AM (#2608885)

The Cabrera backlash that has occurred over the last two weeks has been awesome. I hope some non-Yankee team makes a killing off this stupid "he's going to eat himself out of the game" bs.

5. jwb Posted: November 08, 2007 at 12:11 AM (#2608896)

Quite frankly, I'm surprised that only 25% of the position players who had earned regular jobs by the age of 20 (and held them for two years) have made the Hall of Fame. I knew for every Mel Ott there was and Ed Kranepool, but I didn't think there were three of them.

6. Eddie Gaedel Posted: November 08, 2007 at 01:45 AM (#2608969)

Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman both miss out on the cut off by a couple hundred plate appearances.

Hrmppph. There's five minutes I'll never get back again.

7. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: November 08, 2007 at 02:13 AM (#2608976)

I knew for every Mel Ott there was and Ed Kranepool, but I didn't think there were three of them.

Well, the Hall of Fame is a pretty high bar.

8. kthejoker Posted: November 08, 2007 at 11:15 AM (#2609192)

What's the latest age a Hall of Fame hitter began his career at? Sam Rice was 25 years, 6 months.

EDIT: Looks like the technical winner is Jackie Robinson, who was 28 years, 3 months.

9. Misirlou hasn't payed the phone bill in 300 years Posted: November 08, 2007 at 12:02 PM (#2609267)

The list of 1,000 PAs through age 21 is much smaller: only 57 guys. 17 are in the Hall of Fame, though the list also includes Junior, AROD, Rickey, and little Pudge.

Also, Gary Sheffield, Edgar Renteria, Andruw Jones, Robby Alomar, Adrian Beltre, and Reuben Sierra. So, that's 17 out of 47 eligible. And some of those eligible but not in absolutely should be, like Santo and Trammell (but also some who are in and shouldn't be like Travis jackson and fred Lindstrom.) Also, a couple of guys who may have made it if not for the war, a guy who may have made it if not for a beaning, and a guy who died at age 22.

Perhaps, cautionary for anyone trading for Miggy, the list also includes a bunch of guys who's best years were behind then at age 24, like Vada Pinson, Cesar Cedeno, Claudell Washington, and Butch Wynegar.

An interesting list.

10. Currey Posted: November 08, 2007 at 12:35 PM (#2609331)

I would guess the technical winner of oldest debut for a Hall of Famer is Satchel Paige at age 41.

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Wednesday, November 07, 2007

TSN: Pinto: Marlins are letting the big one, Cabrera, get away

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