Twinkie Town: Peterson: Runs Batted In: Opportunity vs Execution

Screw Hanley Ramirez…Morneau’s already a top run producer!

Justin Morneau: Elite Run Producer, or lucky to be batting behind Joe Mauer?

Over the past three years, no one on the Minnesota Twins has driven in more runs than the 2006 MVP, Justin Morneau:

2006: 130 RBI

2007: 111 RBI

2008: 129 RBI

That’s a lot of RBIs. Buthow much of this is Morneau the elite run producer, and how much does he take advantage of hitting behind one of the truly elite OBP guys in Joe Mauer? Let’s take a look at the number of RBI opportunities Morneau has had relative to the rest of MLB.

“Expected” Runs Batted In

How do we normalize each batter’s RBI opportunities? First we must create a baseline. I collected data from the entire 2008 and partial 2009 (through 7/1) seasons, counting the total number of RBI for each inning situation (e.g., one out, runner on second base). I used this data to calculate the average number of RBI that one would “expect” a batter to drive in for a given situation. I call this “Expected RBI”, or “eRBI”. Not surprisingly, bases empty, zero or one out (0.028 eRBI) is the least RBI-friendly situation, and one out, bases loaded (0.766 eRBI) is the best situation for driving in runs. I then added up the eRBI for each player across all of his plate appearances during the season. Who were the leaders in expected RBI?