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Apparently Smith was obsessed with getting Santana out of the American League.
Of course, that's a sweet ####### trade for them.
Objectively ( or as much of that I can scrape up ),
Gomez is a toolsy OF type that the Twins really like, so they may value him higher than Fernando. I am personally not sold on Gomez. Someone said Endy Chavez earlier, and really, thats about right as lowside mean for him.
Guerra : meh. High A pitcher who has been nursed through. His success dependent on adding more velocity and a third pitch? pass
Mulvey : control artist in the minors, whose best attribute is that he doesn't give up HRs, while not generating enormous amounts of GBs. ZiPS likes him, but it is rare for a pitcher of his type to have significant success in the majors
Humber : High 80s RH junk thrower now.
that sounds pretty yucky to me.
If Santana cannot agree on an extension, is there any chance he decides to play for the Mets anyway?
He might rather play out his contract with the favorite for best NL team than with a probable 3rd place team in the AL central. Would the Mets be happy with giving up those 4 on a 1 year rental?
...
for the Rochester Red Wings.
This is the worst baseball trade I've seen since... I don't know. Kearns and Lopez for a bunch of relievers, I guess, but even then, Kearns and Lopez turned out not to be much to worry about. The Astros trading Dan Wheeler for Ty Wigginton and then releasing Morgan Ensberg comes to mind, but there wasn't nearly as much at stake; the Astros were already doomed to suck for the rest of the decade.
This trade is horrible.
Yes, it depletes the system, yes, it's going to be a lot of cash, but the incremental value to the team should be tremendous, particularly over the course of the next couple of years. Plus they still have F-Mart, Pelfrey, and, um, lots of minor league relievers.
Can't wait to see Johan at Shea.
Even if he wanted to do that, would the Mets still want to make the trade without the extension?
Good move by the Mets. But that's crazy talk. Gomez is 6-4 and has a frame that can add at least 20 pounds while still running as fast as Jose Reyes.
If this is true, I think the Mets gave up significant talent for Santana. Gomez and Guerra are legitimate high ceiling prospects. I think Gomez is much better than most around here believe. I wouldn't have given up any more in the deal if I were the Mets. Nevertheless, if this happens, I think this is an outstanding move by Minaya. Almost outstanding enough to forgive him for giving Milledge away.
Five Years is pushing it, especially if Liriano comes back well.
Gomez I think will be a very good player in CF, but that wasn't his destiny for the Mets. Martinez is still a long ways away, and may wind up at 1B long-term anyway. They need a 2B, C and at least one player at 1b/RF/LF, and they're going to have to throw money at Perez and Maine to have any kind of rotation, but for '08/'09 this will be a great team to watch...
The Twins have blown it all up before, and come back. That may be what they are attempting with their off-season deals. This conceivably could have a played a role in Ryan's departure.
I remember Keith Law repeatedly saying that you are trading for a window, not a guarantee, to negotiate a longer deal. The article says the deal is pending an extension so I guess the mets can back if an extension can't be reached.
Hey, I'm a Mets fan who lives in Northern California and roots for the A's as my 2nd team, and I like the deal, too.
Even if I still can't get a decent bagel...
How many 6'4 guys retain their speed as they add weight? And thats irrelevant to a certain extent. The big question is whether he is going to learn to hit, and then hit for power.
Even if he learns to hti decently, he is a singles hitting, fast and good defensive OF. Which is what Endy Chavez is. I don't see how this is crazy talk unless you have blue-orange colour glasses on.
Winners:
Mets
...
Santana
Yankees
Red Sox
Losers:
Twins
Pirates (just because)
Twins
Phillies
Braves
Anyhow, attaboy Omar. You listen to me more often, you'll go places and see things.
My conclusion is that general managers aren't very smart and that all talk of a "market" in the sense of a rational evaluation of commodities is completely off base. The fact that the same guy could get so little in return for Milledge and then turn around and get so much in return for not even a single top 50 prospect and likely not a single meaningful contributor to a major league team boggles the mind.
Anyway the world of baseball is crazy and the Twins organization apparently breads morons.
Corey Hart is 6'6 and has retained his speed while adding weight so far.
If you can't negotiate a long term deal, you won't actually have to give up anything, so I'm not sure that is really an accurate way to describe the situation. It's sort of the like the posting fee - it only vests if you get what you came for.
It's their own damn fault. The Mariners would have traded Adam Jones for him straight up. That would have been an infinitely better deal.
This is a great deal for the Mets, at the very least for the next couple of years - kudos to Omar - they should be the NL frontrunners for the next 2-3 years. The upgrade from Pelfrey and friends to Santana is huge.
I'll celebrate when the deal is announced, so long as F-Mart truly is not involved. The Mets will get the contract done.
They are going to win, the league, park, and defense will make him look even better, he'll get all the attention in the world being a Met. Call it a good investment (with some risk of course) that should pay off in a huge free agent contract.
I can see it being worth it to the Mets as well, he improves the team tremendously.
I don't know if either party sees it that way.
(remembers that Steinbrenner the Second has claimed that the Yankees were in/out of the race every other day since November)
That's what i'm guessing as well. I wonder if the Mets and Twins have a back up package if the Mets can't reach an extension.
Well, Santana has a robust one year left on his contract, and the Twins had zero chance of signing him to more years. He instantly becomes more valuable now that he's on a team that has more like a 70% chance of signing him to more years. It's situations like this where you see the difference in leverage between a big-budget team and one of the rest.
if the Mets deduct anything from this package, the Twins are better off keeping Santana for a year, and taking the 2 draft picks. This package itself aint much better than that...
They're less irrelevant in years 2 through 5 than they would be if they let Santana go as a free agent. Maybe they could have gotten more talent in return in a trade, but I have a strong suspicion that Santana really wanted to go to the Mets, and the Mets are the team most likely to pay what he wants. That means if he's paying attention at all, Santana can tell the Twins to trade him to the Mets or no one. If that's the case, what else could the Twins do....build a time machine and trade him last year?
I'm not sold on the Mets package here, but there's talent there and the Twins have built enough of a good track record in some of their other trades that I'm willing to let it play out a little bit before I jump on them for this.
Good luck Mets....enjoy having Santana.
As a Yankee fan this was the second best outcome (after Santana becoming an '09 FA).
Back to lurking...
Bedard has as much value as Santana, so no. The Mariners offer is much better than the Twins IMO. And Tillman is not "filler." He's the Mariners' version of Brandon Erbe.
I think I would still want the M's package because I like Jones over Gomez and the pieces after Gomez don't make up for that difference especially when considering the rumored parts of the M's package.
Something tells me that if this goes through, it'll push what Tom Brady had for breakfast this morning to page 2.
Pat Zachary > Phil Humber
Mulvey > Flynn (an historically awful hitter, rare player to actually have negative value)
Guerra => Norman (Guerra is a young guy who may pan out, might never make AAA, Norman was a guy- at the time of the trade might have panned out never really developed AAAA guy in the end)
Trades can go in all directions but I think the odds favor the Mets on this one, I'm also not a Gomez fan- the RedSox and Yankees both offered a lot more than this.
I think it's a good gamble. Let's see them fill with low-cost productivity at those positions next.
You would think that, but I understand that while he was having breakfast, he dropped a cheerio on his bad leg....
The flaw in this thinking is that Santana has much more value to the Mets. Who'd you rather have starting Game 1, Santana or Bedard?
When I said "filler", I meant "Sherrill and some loser prosect."
Why? You recently got Mark Kotsay!
After Santana turned down the Twin's latest offer for an extension, it was take the best deal mode, preferably to the NL. Bill Smith woefully underplayed his hand.
Congrats to Mets fans. Your team looks really tough next year.
It's a toss-up to me. I understand that Santana has a far better track record, but I think Bedard will be as good or better than Santana over the next couple years.
(though i still wish he would have gotten milledge from the mets).
Yeah but you can sign them long-term crazy cheap if you time their PT right. That's the secret to the game- have your players hit arb before they've gotten great, then sign them to 7 year deals with 3 year options for $10-15 million. And always draft very young pitchers with high ceilings for trade fodder. You're not playing baseball, you're playing an algorithm...
I kind of like Santana's established ceiling and level of production.
Where is this mythical all star replacement at 2B?
and Ryan Church is actually a pretty good player (not worth Milledge though)-
What they need now is some form of insurance if Delgado vaporizes.
Not even close. Hernandez for Neil Allen??? Piazza for Preston Wilson??? David Cone for Ed Hearn???
This trade is just fine, but it comes at a high price. It is great for the 2008 Mets, but starting in 2009 they have significant holes to fill and VERY limited ability now to fill them, because they have an amazing dearth of tradeable assets now that the farm system is pretty much crippled. I mean, who can the Mets now really trade who has any value? Their players are either too old, untouchable, or worthless. So for this particular organization, the price is actually quite high to fill one, short-term need.
But they certainly are getting quality back -- no doubt about that.
What prospect? The rumor right now is Jones, Tillman, Butler, Sherrill and some relief prospect. That's a top OF prospect, two good pitching prospects, Sherrill, and some other guy. It's too pitching heavy for my taste, but it's a fair exchange of talent.
Fixed that for you.
I hear that. I'm in like 2028 with the Giants and every time a guy hits arbitration he costs $6-9M, it's annoying.
As you should. You neatly didn't quote the next sentence of my post, which more or less said that exactly.
Flags fly forever bs, and ofcourse, thanks to Glavine, the Mets have a nice collection of early picks this year.
"just fine"? Come on. And sure the Mets will have some holes to fill, but how likely is it that these four guys are going to fill them (or bring back other guys who will)?
In Baltimore. Not that I support keeping what Minaya just shipped off to try and land Roberts instead of getting Santana, but there is a real All-Star 2nd baseman on the market.
These four? Not that likely. But the presence of these four players could possibly buy the necessary filler later.
Again, I'd make this deal too; it's a very good one. But I see that the Mets are going to war with these players over the next few years, rather than counting on system-based turnover.
Go Omar Go Omar Go Omar Go!
Unfortunately, I do expect the contract to be on the large side. Johan clearly has the negotiating power. What would Mets fans do to Omar Minaya if this deal fell through?
That's not the point. Those four guys could have filled them (rotation, LF) OR been used in trades to fill them (1B). Now, the Mets have very little room to maneuver. My point is that teams with much deeper systems than the Mets have could have afforded to pay this price much more readily; for the Mets, it is really a big deal, because they are virtually frozen in terms with only one major chip to use or trade in the next couple of years (F-Mart). It will take them a long time, and a major reinvestment of $$$, to rebuild the farm system.
The same thing Twins fans are going to do to Bill Smith if this deal doesn't fall through.
shhh, don't tell angelos.
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