What would Mets fans do to Omar Minaya if this deal fell through?

I think their wrath would go higher up the org. chart than Omar...

This Braves fan doesn't really know anything about the prospects the Mets gave up

Gomez- overrated tools goof, probably will be better than Endy Chavez, not as good as Carl Crawford.

Humber: former 1 round pick who didn't regain all his velocity after TJ, pitched decently in New Orleans, looked terrible in his sole MLB star last year- no stuff- but may have been rusty.

Mulvey: former 2nd rounder, pitched well in AA, peripherals so so- except for apparent remarkable ability to keep the ball in the park. He loses that ability and he's nothing.

Guerra: really young guy, they "project" top throw harder in the future, if he doesn't he's really going no where, if he does? who knows- lottery ticket

Best trade in Mets history

Better than getting Mike Piazza for Preston Wilson, Ed Yarnall, and Geoff Goetz?

This trade is awful for the Twins. Atrocious. The Orioles would be doing better than this for Erik Bedard if their owner wasn't an ego-crazed idiot.

Apparently Smith was obsessed with getting Santana out of the American League.

Why is it awful for the Twins? This is a scouting trade and in a few years, we will see what 1 year of Santana yields. I bet it is a lot more than you think.

As hyped as Gomez has been, you'd think he would have at least managed a .780 OPS in the minor leagues once, but he hasn't yet. But he sure is fast!

Another fun thing about this trade is I don't have to worry about hearing anymore Livan Hernandez rumors or Levski snark about Livan signing with the Mets.

Omar has two high draft picks in next year's draft. He really does needs to turn them into significant prospects.

My point is that teams with much deeper systems than the Mets have could have afforded to pay this price much more readily; for the Mets, it is really a big deal, because they are virtually frozen in terms with only one major chip to use or trade in the next couple of years (F-Mart).

I don't see why you wouldn't consider John Maine a trade chip, he's good (although I don't think he's nearly as good as some), he's cheap, his performance is hardly irreplaceable on the free agent market, especially with the Mets defense, and now the Mets have a great rotation and can deal from that strength. Do you want to deal him? No. But he shouldn't be untouchable.

Will this help the Mets? Sure, but they also run the risk of having no depth in their farm system should things go awry.

Nevertheless, it's a gamble you take.

Another fun thing about this trade is I don't have to worry about hearing anymore Livan Hernandez rumors or Levski snark about Livan signing with the Mets.

Welcome back to D.C., Livo!

Heyman says the two teams "discussed" the possibility of including Jorge Sosa in the deal instead of Humber.

If you can't negotiate a long term deal, you won't actually have to give up anything,

If Vegas set odds on the Mets and Santana NOT agreeing to an extension (assuming the elbow checks out), they'd be about 999-1 right now.

As hyped as Gomez has been, you'd think he would have at least managed a .780 OPS in the minor leagues once, but he hasn't yet. But he sure is fast!

But he is 6'4!! And he might add 20 lbs!! He would look so good posting that speedy 750 ops

I don't like the return, but I'm going to give the Twins scouting department the benefit of the doubt in finding out how these guys develop relative to the supposed offers left on the table earlier this winter from NYY and Bos.

I think this is a very good deal for the Twins, with Guerra in it. Guerra is a *much* better prospect than people are crediting him for being here. He isn't even 19 yet, and held his own in the FSL. Yes, the Mets have babied him to some extent - but at his age that's a GOOD thing. Guerra's not going to be Santana, but he has front-of-the-rotation upside.

Out of this, the Twins have a reasonable chance of getting an above-average regular outfielder, a front-of-the-rotation starter, and at least one other average starter. That's about all you can ask.

-- MWE

#### you, Carl Pohlad. #### you. If you offered me the choice right now of getting Pohlad or Bud Selig out of baseball forever, I'm not sure I could bring myself to pick Selig.

The Twins have discovered a new revenue stream: renting out their players as blue jeans models.

Better than getting Mike Piazza for Preston Wilson, Ed Yarnall, and Geoff Goetz?

Yes because Wilson is/was better than Gomez
At the time he was traded Yarnell was/looked as good or better than Mulvey or Humber do
and Goetz was roughly equivalent to Guerra.

Of course the fact that Yarnell and Goetz didn't pan out doesn't mean than none of Humber/Mulvey/Guerra won't either.

What a joke. Absolute joke. As much as I didn't want Santana on the Yankees, how do you take this crap over Hughes + anything?

Out of this, the Twins have a reasonable chance of getting an above-average regular outfielder, a front-of-the-rotation starter, and at least one other average starter. That's about all you can ask.

Mike, you've forgotten more about baseball than I know, but you really think there's a "reasonable chance" that three of these four guys pan out to that extent? A reasonable chance of one of them, maybe, but three?

Next year's rotation is going to be fun to watch if they are healthy.

Johan: Arguably the best pitcher in baseball, 95 MPH fastball with a great changeup.
Pedro: Still has that incredible change up and excellent curve. One of the most cerebral pitchers ever.
Maine: Hardthrowing righty that has shown quality offspeed stuff at times.
Perez: Better stuff than results but still pretty good. Can dominate a single start when he is one his game as well as anyone.
Duque: Beautiful windup, throws the kitchen up there to get a hitter out.

As hyped as Gomez has been, you'd think he would have at least managed a .780 OPS in the minor leagues once, but he hasn't yet. But he sure is fast!

He's also been very young at each level, played excellent defense (in CF), and . . . and yes, he's awfully fast. Look, the Twins like tools, and they apparently like Gomez. Same with Guerra.

The Twins were NEVER going to get "full" value for a pitcher with just one year left on his contract. Santana was going to get a lot of the value for Santana, because the Mets have to pay it to HIM in good, old-fashioned greenbacks. Every dollar the Mets pay him in that extension has to be seen as value the Twins are NOT getting in talent in this trade. Gomez isn't as good as you think the Twins should get for Santana? The Twins extracted that value in performance in 2007. Guerra is too much of a question mark? The Twins got that value in 2006. The A's, on the other hand, decided NOT to use up that value in the case of Dan Haren, but to trade it to the Diamondbacks -- so they got a better return. The Diamondbacks paid in talent (to the A's); the Mets paid less in talent (to the Twins), and more in dollars (to Santana).

Mrs. Met will have a good time tonight.

(sorry, I gotta a million of these. And they all suck)

The deal looks good when you count the secret returns the Red Sox and Yankees paid the Twins to keep them off the other team's roster.

But I see that the Mets are going to war with these players over the next few years, rather than counting on system-based turnover.

That die was cast a long time ago. When they dealt Jacobs for Delgado, and traded for LoDuca, and lost Flores, it was clear this was not a team that was going to be rebuilding from within. I don't disagree with any of those deals (except not protecting Flores), but it's kind of foolish to pretend this is what emptied out the Met farm system. Jacobs could've been Delgado-light, Flores could've been the catcher of 2009, and all those pitchers they dealt away would've lessened what is now a very pressing need to extend one/both of Maine/Perez long-term.

And it goes without saying that Milledge/Flores will outperform Church/Schnieder in '08-'09...

There's no real albatross contract on this team the way there has been for the Yankees the last few years, unless I'm missing something. They'll have to pay Delgado to be mediocre, but he's had off years before and rebounded, and we all know that it's very easy to mistake an injury-related decline for an age-related decline. Other than that, there are no huge contracts where they're paying for past performance that'll keep them from buying what they need. As long as they do it with Alou-style deals rather than Giambi-style ones, they should be OK until they/if can deftly restock the farm.

Not even close. Hernandez for Neil Allen??? Piazza for Preston Wilson??? David Cone for Ed Hearn???

This trade is just fine, but it comes at a high price. It is great for the 2008 Mets, but starting in 2009 they have significant holes to fill and VERY limited ability now to fill them, because they have an amazing dearth of tradeable assets now that the farm system is pretty much crippled. I mean, who can the Mets now really trade who has any value? Their players are either too old, untouchable, or worthless. So for this particular organization, the price is actually quite high to fill one, short-term need.

Totally, utterly wrong.

Filling "one, short-term need"? That's like saying Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux were quick-fixes for the Red Sox and Braves. The Mets haven't had a pitcher of this quality for 15 years, and Mulvey/Humber/Guerra weren't going to turn into one.

The best thing the Mets could have possibly done was get value for that trio before one, two or all three implode. They did that, in spades.

but he has front-of-the-rotation upside.

How many pitchers with a good fastball and change in the low minors can this be said about? And his fastball is still high 80s and low 90s on occasion right? Even the velocity is being projected to come ?

As much as I didn't want Santana on the Yankees, how do you take this crap over Hughes + anything?

Hank's willingness to include Hughes shifted like Matthew Perry's weight on Friends.

That's not the point. Those four guys could have filled them (rotation, LF) OR been used in trades to fill them (1B). Now, the Mets have very little room to maneuver.

You're too quick for me...I immediately edited my post to add that I don't think these guys aren't necessarily going to bring back a lot in the future. In any event, why is filling a hole in the future more important than filling a hole now? The Mets need a starter, and those 4 prospects brought back maybe the best one on the market. I can't imagine that those 4 will bring back significantly more in the future.

Also, the mets can restock their system fairly quickly with a few decent trade chits if they draft reasonably well. It's not like the system is going to remain static. Santana almost guarantees them a playoff spot this year (and maybe in 2009 and 2010) -- that's worth far more than those 4 prospects IMO.

Out of this, the Twins have a reasonable chance of getting an above-average regular outfielder, a front-of-the-rotation starter, and at least one other average starter. That's about all you can ask.

Maybe this is just semantics, but I see the Twins as having a reasonable chance of getting an above-average regular outfielder, a front-of-the-rotation starter, or at least one average starter. The likelihood that Gomez becomes an above average player and one of the pitchers becoming an average or above starter seems fairly remote.

I can't get over this. How do you not get one surefire prospect in return for Johan Santana?

####### A, Mets!

When they dealt Jacobs for Delgado, and traded for LoDuca, and lost Flores, it was clear this was not a team that was going to be rebuilding from within. I don't disagree with any of those deals (except not protecting Flores), but it's kind of foolish to pretend this is what emptied out the Met farm system.

Oh, come on. Those losses were NOT system-killers. Four-for-one deals . . . THOSE can be organization killers, especially when they come on top of deals you have already made that have sacrificed the guys you mentioned. Until this off-season, with the exiling of Lastings Milledge and now today's trade, the Mets were still in a position to mix in the young outfielders with the Reyes/Wright infield and have a mix of home-grown and acquired players in the team that moves into Citifield. Now, they are almost certainly locked into a mercenary approach, unless F-Mart somehow survives to tell the tale and take his place in the outfield someday (and even then it'll be as the rare exception).

As I said, I favor this deal. But it is THIS off-season -- not what came before -- that seals the deal on the Mets having compromised any claim to having even a partial commitment to their farm system.

but he has front-of-the-rotation upside.

How many pitchers with a good fastball and change in the low minors can this be said about? And his fastball is still high 80s and low 90s on occasion right? Even the velocity is being projected to come ?

Obviously all pitching prospects are gamble, but young, low minors, pitching prospects seem like especially volatile assets. For that reason, I'm not thrilled with Tillman (or Guera) as an important piece in a Bedard deal.

So for this particular organization, the price is actually quite high to fill one, short-term need.

Well, I'm not sure I'd call a #1 SP a "short-term" need. Pedro is not getting any younger, Maine will never be that good, Perez will never be that reliable, and Guerra is years away. The Mets do have the $ to rebuild their farm system (Omar, it's time to start going above-slot for draft picks), and this gives them an incredible core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana for the next several years.

Johan makes sense for the Mets because he allows them to maximize their current championship window. You trade for prospects when you are rebuilding, but when you are on the cusp of winning, you have to be aggressive. The Mets' core, plus the influx of $ from Citi Field next season (to sign a 1B and RF?), should give them a 5 year window in which a winning a championship is possible.

One more thing. A Bill Smith apologist would retell the story this way. The Yankees were the early front-runner for Johan, offering Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. Boston, worried about this, jumped in with a pair of sham offers in an attempt to drive up the price. The Twins, low on Hughes for some inexplicable reason, don't jump on the Yankee offer. Then Mike Cameron signs with the Brewers, and the Yankees pull their trade off the table because Melky is their only reasonable CF option for 2008. Boston has achieved its goal and withdraws as well. Bill Smith is left talking only with the Mets, who would be one of two front-runners to sign Johan next off-season anyway, so he has no bargaining power. So then it comes down to: accept the Mets' package, keep Johan and hope to make some noise in 2008, or offer Johan for Hughes near straight-up. No great options there, but it looks like Bill Smith trusted Jim McIlvane and accepted the Mets offer (sucker!).

It seems like the most plausible reading here is that the Twins really, really like Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra, much more than the BTF consensus.

I don't know if they're right, but the Twins scouting bureau has a pretty solid record in trading for minor leaguers, so I wouldn't immediately count them out.

That said, the BTF consensus is based on the consensus of pretty much everyone in the media who's paid to watch and grade prospects. The Twins are bucking pretty much everyone. So there's reason to be skeptical.

Gomez has been one of the youngest players at each level at which he has played. He has been an above average hitter at his minor league level over the past two seasons. He plays an excellent defensive CF. And he is very fast. He's not Jay Bruce. We get it. But he's an excellent prospect.

That die was cast a long time ago. When they dealt Jacobs for Delgado, and traded for LoDuca, and lost Flores, it was clear this was not a team that was going to be rebuilding from within. I don't disagree with any of those deals (except not protecting Flores), but it's kind of foolish to pretend this is what emptied out the Met farm system.

Yes, it would be. If anyone was stubbornly trying to intimate that the Mets started this emptying this offseason.

There's no real albatross contract on this team the way there has been for the Yankees the last few years, unless I'm missing something.

Few contracts look like albatross deals right away, or even in the first few years. But a sudden drop in productivity, Bernie Williams-style from CF, 3B, SS, or from the expensive rotation members would create a system in which lots of dollars (and maybe years) go towards very little production.

Filling "one, short-term need"? That's like saying Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux were quick-fixes for the Red Sox and Braves. The Mets haven't had a pitcher of this quality for 15 years, and Mulvey/Humber/Guerra weren't going to turn into one.

Who disagrees? Except that Santana isn't as good as they were at their peaks. He's still awfully great. (But he's not as great as Mike Piazza was, by the way.) All I am saying is that the Mets -- with an already-weak farm system, and with multiple emerging needs to fill -- were not in a great position to use so many prospects to acquire ANY one player, and that this will make it quite difficult for them to make the deals they need to make to fill their holes down the road. It is an observation about a downside of an otherwise good deal, not a criticism or a statement that I wouldn't have made the deal. To acquire the players the Mets are definitely going to need, and soon, they will have only one really viable option, and that's free agency, and that is a tenuous position to be in.

BTW:
Carlos Gomez
Phil Humber
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey

But he is 6'4!! And he might add 20 lbs!! He would look so good posting that speedy 750 ops

And he's been young for his league. And he plays gold glove caliber D in CF. And he's faster than Reyes.

Edit: I was too slow.

Another fun thing about this trade is I don't have to worry about hearing anymore Livan Hernandez rumors or Levski snark about Livan signing with the Mets.

You underestimate Levski.

Yeah, Minn really screwed up by not taking the Yanks' offer of Hughes and Melky and assorted sundries.

Why is it awful for the Twins? This is a scouting trade and in a few years, we will see what 1 year of Santana yields.

Hey, no doubt, the Twins' scouting staff had done a great job the last several years. But it seems like every year in the draft they (a) reach for a toolsy OF that they love, and he flops (well, we'll see on Revere), and (b) invariably end up with 2 or 3 really nice but limited arms that profile as third or fourth starters.

Given that, (a) how much benefit of the doubt do they get for tabbing Gomez as the key piece, and (b) why the hell do they need three more nice young arms with limited upsides?

He could have called the Mariners and gotten Adam Jones and filler; that would be better than this. And I have to think the Angels and Dodgers could beat what the Twins wound up getting from the Mets. This trade is inexplicable.

But he is 6'4!! And he might add 20 lbs!! He would look so good posting that speedy 750 ops

If he'd played football at Notre Dame, he'd be the complete package.

Incidentally, have the New York Mets changed their franchise's name to Real Madrid?

It is an observation about a downside of an otherwise good deal, not a criticism or a statement that I wouldn't have made the deal.

That's fair, but I'd say it's not the downside of the deal, it's the downside of the farm system (or of the farm system minus Milledge.)

The Mets weren't going to get anyone who really filled a need - at star level or above - without trading at least this much talent. They actually managed to get a lot more for the talent they gave up than anyone could reasonably expect.

As such, it's hard for me to blame the downside on the trade. The problem was that they traded away Milledge and then had very little left. That Omar has now managed to get a ridiculously great return on what little he had left doesn't seem like the problem, it seems like making the best of a bad situation.

Are the Mets close to the Giants as the oldest average age of the roster? Might even be ahead with all the young pitching the Giants have

He could have called the Mariners and gotten Adam Jones and filler; that would be better than this. And I have to think the Angels and Dodgers could beat what the Twins wound up getting from the Mets. This trade is inexplicable.

Would Santana accept a trade to the Mariners? Were the Mariners willing to give Santana the contract extension?

Next year's rotation is going to be fun to watch if they are healthy.

Feel better about the Mets not getting Big Z now, Russlan? :-)

Seattle's a big market with a dedicated fanbase, so I have a hard time seeing how the answer to either question could be "no." And trading him straight-up for Matt Kemp--something I have a hard time believing Uncle Ned wouldn't do--is probably better than what they got from the Mets.

He could have called the Mariners and gotten Adam Jones and filler; that would be better than this.

No, he couldn't have. There is absolutely no indication that Johan Santana would have approved a trade to the Mariners. People just have to recognize that the Twins did NOT have full control, and thus full leverage, to make the best deal they could with every other team in baseball in play.

I'm sorry -- you have some indication Santana refused a trade to the Mariners? I must have missed all the articles where Santana told reporters he was going to New York or he was going nowhere.

Anyhow, I'll play along -- let's imagine this really WAS the very best Bill Smith could do. If that's true, the Twins should have kept Santana.

Winning the Cy last year, I believe, vested his no-trade clause. And he had only publicly waived this for NY (either) and BOS.

You underestimate Levski.

For some reason, I found this really, really funny.

And I have to think the Angels and Dodgers could beat what the Twins wound up getting from the Mets. This trade is inexplicable.

Teams aren't always comfortable offering so much money for a pitcher. When you add in the value of the prospects that a team would have to give up to trade for him, Santana's very, very expensive. Again, even though the consensus here is that the Mets "won" the trade, this is a huge risk.

To acquire the players the Mets are definitely going to need, and soon, they will have only one really viable option, and that's free agency, and that is a tenuous position to be in.

I think this trade shows that the Mets don't mind upping their payroll to the levels that Boston and the Yankees are at currently. There really is no reason why the Mets can't or shouldn't be spending as much as the Red Sox especially when you remember that the Mets are opening a new stadium in 2009.

Feel better about the Mets not getting Big Z now, Russlan? :-)

A little bit but don't get me wrong, I like me some Big Z. He's not as good as Santana but I like him more.

Woo! Great trade by the Mets and it welcomes in one of my favorite pitchers to watch. Sweet!

I must have missed all the articles where Santana told reporters he was going to New York or he was going nowhere.

There were LOTS of articles that said specifically that he had approved a trade to the Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox. I took that as at least implying that those were the only teams he had approved. Now, maybe if another team had gotten into it with some enthusiasm, he would have considered it . . . but doesn't that tell you something: no other team got into it. No other team was willing to trump what the Mets were offering, because a monster-talent package is just not "fair value" when you also have to sign the player to a monster extension.

Everyone dreams of playing for (and only for) the Mets in Sam's world :)

Everyone dreams of playing for (and only for) the Mets in Sam's world

David Ortiz: Pedro ain't gonna sign with no Mets.

Hah!

I see what you're saying about filling holes, Sam, and I really do like teams built from the farm best but I think there's another way to see it.

With a core of stars (Santana, Wright, Reyes and Beltran) the players that the Mets will need to fill in (1b, closer? 2b? RF?) won't need to be as great. Minaya's job now will just be to find average players for those positions, some of them on the cheap. That's easier, in some ways, than getting the stars.

This trade is just fine, but it comes at a high price.

Sam, you're insane. Certifiably crazy.

that seals the deal on the Mets having compromised any claim to having even a partial commitment to their farm system.

Humber wasn't getting a shot this year, and from everything we've seen was drawing very little interest (when you can be swapped for Jorge Sosa in a trade offer...). Guerra's young and still a bit of a ways away. Mulvey would likely need some adjustment time in the majors. With young pitchers (TNSTAAPP or whatever) you really need a few of them thrown against the wall to stick. You can have a difference of opinion if you want, but IMO, they'd already gone down this road. I hate the Milledge trade as much as anyone, but these are two distinct events, and position players are much more projectable than pitchers. If any one of these guys was a Homer Bailey, Hughes, or another guy poised to become a #1/#2 starter in the near future, I might feel differently, but all of these guys have more value to the Twins than they do to the Mets. Guerra could blow his arm out, Mulvey could get shelled. Let's not forget when they traded Petit and Jacobs both looked like very solid prospects, closer to the majors than Mulvey and arguably Gomez. And Santana's the better player. I was far more upset about the loss of Milledge/Flores than about anyone else the team has dealt because they're very projectable players set to fill very definite holes that the organization has/will have.

I agree with the thrust of your comments, but it seems like the Mets are in a state where they're not going to be patient with young pitchers who struggle. That didn't start this offseason. As long as that's the case, they can't throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks, which is precisely the approach you need to take with mid/back rotation starters. Or else you pay $10 million+ a year for them after someone else has developed them. The Mets have been committed to the second approach since they signed Beltran. They were set to throw money at mediocrity to fill out the rotation this year rather than give Humber/Pelfrey a shot.

Remember when Anderson Hernandez was the second baseman of the future? That was a fun few weeks...

Congratulations Mets fans.

Yes.

Your team is back to being the NL front runner.

No. Their team is now back to being a contender in the NL East.

In 2014:

I'm 25% sure that Mets fans will be very happy, because Santana is still performing to his salary
I'm 10% sure that Santana flamed out very quickly and this trade is looked upon as a franchise killer
I'm 40% sure that Santana will no longer be performing, but it was worth it because he took the Mets to the promised land
I'm 25% sure that he will be playing for another team after it all went sour in Queens for some reason

Baseball Mogul IS unrealistic,

Is there a better GM-type sim out there? I've seen some discussion of Out of Park Baseball Game...but I've been looking for something like this for sometime, and stumbled across the chatter on this thread. I've never played any baseball GM sims before...but I'm sure I can do better than Ken Williams. =P Thanks in advance.

Sam, you're insane. Certifiably crazy.

Being called certifiable by Levski is like. . . .

being called "conservative" by Rush Limbaugh.

being called "dead" by Generalissimo Francisco Franco.

being called "cunning" by Machiavelli.

being called "red-nosed" by Rudolph.

being called "hung" by John Holmes.

I am not as pessmistic about the farm system as you guys. The Mets did keep their best hitting prospect (Fernando) and their best pitching prospect (Pelfrey). There's not that much depth anymore but you can't expect to acquire Santana without at least getting hurt a little bit.

That reminds me: Am I the only Baseball Mogul player that simply goes in and manually edits arbitration contracts to reflect more realistic amounts?

But then, I'm like that; I take control of the whole league in the offseason and stop the crazy arb contracts and the Yankees from signing all of the top 6 starting pitchers.

So, maybe this was said on the first page, but are NYY and Boston fans relieved by this?

I speak for no one but myself, JC, but I'm relieved.

So, maybe this was said on the first page, but are NYY and Boston fans relieved by this?

I imagine they're simultaneously relieved and furious. Both sides.

Ah, Sam, you're a riot. You shouldn't underestimate me, you know :)

So, how about a three year deal to Livan to shore up the back of the rotation?

Yeah, that's the other thing. Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and some filler would have been better than what the Mets gave up; but then, it isn't clear that the Yankees were still serious about trying to acquire Santana, once it became clear the Red Sox were not.

I imagine they're simultaneously relieved and furious. Both sides.

Well done. I was wondering how to express how they were feeling but this is just perfect.

So, how about a three year deal to Livan to shore up the back of the rotation?
You know the funny part, the Mets might have to sign Lohse or Livan ( not to a 3 yr deal, mind you ). It would be really ironic if they had this awesome rotation, and yet had to trot Lima Time out there when some midseason DLs happen.

Is there a better GM-type sim out there? I've seen some discussion of Out of Park Baseball Game

Out of the Park is more realistic, but also much, much more involved. There's a lot of minor-league depth-chart-setting type stuff. Mogul still has some quick "pick up and play" attitude (although IMHO, they got too complicated for my tastes a few years ago).

#### you, Carl Pohlad. #### you. If you offered me the choice right now of getting Pohlad or Bud Selig out of baseball forever, I'm not sure I could bring myself to pick Selig.

They gave $104M to Morneau and Cuddyer. Blame Bill Smith.

You know the funny part, the Mets might have to sign Lohse or Livan ( not to a 3 yr deal, mind you ). It would be really ironic if they had this awesome rotation, and yet had to trot Lima Time out there when some midseason DLs happen.

The Mets still have Pelfrey and Sosa who are acceptable 6th and 7th starters. I could see them signing Garcia and letting him rehab until he's ready.

But a sudden drop in productivity, Bernie Williams-style from CF, 3B, SS, or from the expensive rotation members would create a system in which lots of dollars (and maybe years) go towards very little production.

Pedro's off the books soon. Delgado too. Unless Beltran or Wright or Reyes suddenly tanks (or Santana), there's no big contract long-term that has the potential to handcuff the team's payroll, especially considering a revenue bump. The Yankees FWIW had several of these and still survived, but they're the Yankees and until recently have had seemingly limitless funds. The biggest danger is of a player being completely worthless is Castillo, who seems like he's one bad slide away from being a worthless hitter. But he's getting $6 million a year, which doesn't break the bank. I think the Mets have been fairly smart about not committing a lot of years to guys on the wrong side of 30 since Omar took over.

A Gomez/Beltran/Milledge OF would've been fun to watch for a few years...

So, maybe this was said on the first page, but are NYY and Boston fans relieved by this?

Very relieved. Gives me a chance to watch Hughes develop w/o the risk of having to watch Johan dominate as a redsox.

Slightly annoyed though that it seems like another example of teams asking for more from the Yankees than other teams though.

Slightly annoyed though that it seems like another example of teams asking for more from the Yankees than other teams though.

In this case, it is somewhat justified. It's better for Santana to be in the NL for the Twins.

I am not as pessmistic about the farm system as you guys. The Mets did keep their best hitting prospect (Fernando) and their best pitching prospect (Pelfrey).

Pelfrey was NOT their best pitching prospect any longer -- just their most major league ready (and Humber may well have passed him even on that score). Guerra was their best pitching prospect.

They gave $104M to Morneau and Cuddyer. Blame Bill Smith.

I highly doubt that Smith made this decision. It was ownership, pure and simple.

I am not as pessmistic about the farm system as you guys. The Mets did keep their best hitting prospect (Fernando) and their best pitching prospect (Pelfrey). There's not that much depth anymore but you can't expect to acquire Santana without at least getting hurt a little bit.

Yes, this is one thing I forgot to mention in my earlier response to sam. The mets still have their best prospect -- a guy who's one of the top 25 or so prospects in baseball, and who could be an elite hitter. That, to me, is exactly why this trade is so great. I thought they'd end up trading Martinez and Gomez and a couple pitchers. To get him without giving up Martinez is outstanding.

And, speaking as a fan of Johan, I'm glad he didn't end up in BOS or NYY.

Pelfrey was NOT their best pitching prospect any longer -- just their most major league ready (and Humber may well have passed him even on that score). Guerra was their best pitching prospect.

Guerra's got the bigger upside no doubt but he's really far away. Humber's more ready but might not have the upside. Pelfrey was their best combo of upside and readiness, IMO.

Anyhow, I'll play along -- let's imagine this really WAS the very best Bill Smith could do. If that's true, the Twins should have kept Santana.

So, in your opinion, 2 picks, neither of which is a top 15 pick would result in better players than Humber, Mulvey, Gomez and Guerra. Humber was a 1st round pick. Mulvey, 2nd round.

Anyhow, I'll play along -- let's imagine this really WAS the very best Bill Smith could do. If that's true, the Twins should have kept Santana.


unless he means "kept Santana going into the 2008 season, and wait and see if the Mets get desperate at the trading deadline"

So, in your opinion, 2 picks, neither of which is a top 15 pick would result in better players than Humber, Mulvey, Gomez and Guerra.

Having Santana on your team in 2008 has some value, too.

But what everyone REALLY wants to know: WDDWT???

(What does David Wright think???)

Is there a better GM-type sim out there? I've seen some discussion of Out of Park Baseball Game...but I've been looking for something like this for sometime, and stumbled across the chatter on this thread. I've never played any baseball GM sims before...but I'm sure I can do better than Ken Williams. =P Thanks in advance.

OOTP is MUCH better than Baseball Mogul.

As a Red Sox fan, I'm frustrated, because every reported Red Sox package was better than this junk.

Baron von Awesome, you again disappoint. Clearly in #148 Sam said "There is no evidence the Twins could have traded him to the Mariners." Now you say "There is no evidence the Twins could not have traded him to the Mariners." There's no evidence for either!

But the Twins had a lot less leverage here than the Orioles do. Perhaps the Orioles' habitual ineptitude will lead to them making a similarly bad trade, but that will require quite a lot of ineptitude to make up for the increased leverage.

Santana/Pedro/Maine/Perez/Hernandez

Wagner/Heilman/Feliciano/Sanchez/Schoenesu...er Schoeneweis/Sosa or Wise

Reyes/Castillo/Wright/Beltran/Alou/Delgado/Church/Schneider

Chavez/Anderson/Easley/Castro/Gotay or Pagan

The Mets are lacking an outfielder when Alou is out of the lineup and the middle relief could be better although I guess Sanchez might bounce back and be a reliable setup man. Hopefully, Joe Smith or Burgos can help.

As a Red Sox fan, I'm frustrated, because every reported Red Sox package was better than this junk.

Do we know that the Red Sox were even serious, though?

Would they have been willing to give Santana the five, six year extension that he wanted? If not, they can offer whatever they wanted - it wouldn't matter, a deal wasn't happening.

As a Red Sox fan, I'm frustrated, because every reported Red Sox package was better than this junk.

According to Gammons, the Sox package was off the table, as was the Yankees' deal. And hey -- you don't lose ANY of Lowrie and Lester and Ellsbury. And the Yankees don't have Johan Santana. Be happy.

Btw, I agree with Gaelan's comment: it's amazing the same GM could pull off the stupidest and the smartest trade, all in the same offseason. Omar is an enigma wrapped in an a street spanish dictionary.

I assume the other owners will veto this trade. That's the way it would work in my OOTP league.

I don't know who Bill Smith is but do we know why he hates the Braves and Phillies so much?

I tried OOTP a couple of years ago, but after years of BBM, found it way too complicated. What makes it better? I may have given up on it way too soon.

They gave $104M to Morneau and Cuddyer. Blame Bill Smith.

Don't think I absolve Bill Smith of responsibility, but getting rid of Bill Smith won't really change anything as long as Pohlad is in the driver's seat.

As an aside, the Mets really need Pelfrey to be capable of taking over a spot in the rotation in 2009 because their rotation is going to be expensive. Santana is going to be making big bucks and Pedro, Perez, and Duque are all free agents after the 2008 season which means only Maine is signed for cheap for 2009.

Pedro is making $11M in 2008, Delgado $16M, Alou $7.5M, El Duque is making $6.5M. Perez will make either a hair under $5M or $6.5M. That's over $45M coming off the books. So they'll have some money to spend.

Yes, Castillo is making $6M per, Wright and Reyes will be a little more expensive, Maine will be a little more expensive, and they added some small contracts like Endy and Castro.

It's all going to depend on what the Mets project the 2009 payroll to be. If they get up to the $150M range, they'll have the cash to spend filling those holes with reasonable players. If they get into the $160-170M, they can fill with all-stars.

I expect the 2008-2009 offseason to have some serious Texiera bidding by Minaya.

Yes, this is one thing I forgot to mention in my earlier response to sam. The mets still have their best prospect -- a guy who's one of the top 25 or so prospects in baseball, and who could be an elite hitter. That, to me, is exactly why this trade is so great. I thought they'd end up trading Martinez and Gomez and a couple pitchers. To get him without giving up Martinez is outstanding.

And this is why I think the Mets took Smith to the cleaners. According to the AJC, Smith called all the teams last weekend, asked for their best offers, and then picked the Mets' proposal. If it's me, and I don't even get back the team's best prospect in return for one of the best 3 players in baseball, I tell them thanks but no thanks.

But i'm an idiot. The last time I was this upset was when the Braves traded Andy Marte. Be very afraid, Mets fans!

So, maybe this was said on the first page, but are NYY and Boston fans relieved by this?

Very relieved. Gives me a chance to watch Hughes develop w/o the risk of having to watch Johan dominate as a redsox.

Slightly annoyed though that it seems like another example of teams asking for more from the Yankees than other teams though.

I'm mostly relieved. I love Johan and would have loved to have seen him in pinstripes, but I dreaded giving up Hughes so early and still having to pay full rate for Johan. It also was such a stereotypical Yankees move that it would have been a little unpalatable. That he's not going to Boston is huge and the fact that I get to see him play here is also great. So for me, I'm perfectly content with this result. Whether I feel that way in October is a different question.

The obvious question now is, what'll we get for Nathan?

I may be speaking for the vast minority here, but I don't think we have any reason to believe that Bill Smith could have found a better alternative deal. Santana's no-trade clause and long-term demands make him a much less valuable asset in a trade than Haren or even Bedard, so expecting a sure-fire position prospect like Adam Jones in return for Johan was unrealistic all along. Even the Yankees offers for Santana seemed to be centered around one young arm and a bunch of complementary pieces at best.

Granted, Gomez and Guerra are unproven and projectable more than anything else, while Humber has yet to show the same type of stuff that made him a top overall pick. But a team of modest means like Minnesota needs to use opportunities like these to find potential frontline talent that it cannot find in free agency. Betting on Guerra to become a front of the rotation horse, Humber to bounce back or Gomez to translate his natural athleticism into plus power may be extremely risky, but these are the types of gambles that Minnesota cannot avoid. If given a choice between this package and a safer, lower ceiling group of prospects (the Lowrie, Masterson types eg), I think that Bill Smith is well advised to take the former. He may catch more criticism, but his farm system is already stuffed with the likes of Jeff Manship. Betting on Gomez, Guerra and Humber to get somewhere near their ceilings, though perhaps highly unlikely, is the type of strategy that may result in a championship if the Minnesota scouting staff proves correct. Obviously that end result is a huge longshot, but the safer route would all but guarantee mediocrity for the foreseeable future.