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Dunn is a free agent as well. Ideally, Delgado has a good enough year that you pick up his option and trade him and try to get one of Teixeira or Dunn. It won't be easy because the Yankees are looking for a firstbaseman as well and people have been talking about Dunn going to Texas or Houston for a long time.
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Chase Utley
You really think Santana is one of the best three players in baseball???
Anyway, the Twins might have been able to get F-Mart, but then they would have been criticized for getting even less immediate return than they are already getting, since he is further away and more of a question mark than Gomez. The problem was they weren't getting both.
The issue here -- to me -- is not whether Smith took the right offer at this point. It's whether he blew it by not acting sooner. It seems pretty clear that (for whatever reason) both the Yankees and Sox cooled off, and he was left pretty much with the Mets. Should Smith have anticipated that was going to happen? Maybe, but I certainly didn't think he was going to be left holding the bag, and thus that he should have jumped a month ago while Hughes/Melky or the Sox offers were on the table.
OK, granted, after the McGriff deal I shouldn't be throwing any stones, but man...this one is frustrating.
It seems to me that of contending teams (or would-be contenders) the Cubs have a back-of-the-bullpen need and some prospects Minny might want. They don't really want to try to win their first in a century with Dumpster closing, do they? Or do they think Carlos Marmol can close?
The Twins had a hughes package from the Yankees, not to mentioned a rumor Lester or Ellsbury package. Not only was it realistic to expect a high end prospect, it happened. Smith overplayed his hand.
Remember when Ken Griffey said he would only be traded to the Reds? Maybe this is like that.
(of course, the Mariners were trying to reload and keep winning games, so they were looking for people ready to contribute immediately...and getting Mike Cameron probably made that a good trade, despite the rest of the return being duds)
The Twins had a hughes package from the Yankees, not to mentioned a rumor Lester or Ellsbury package. Not only was it realistic to expect a high end prospect, it happened.
Did the Twins say no to those? Or did Santana invoke the no-trade clause, and the Twins kept it quiet in order to make it seem like they had more leverage?
The Twins wanted Fernando more Gomez anyway.
Seriously, I don't remember...
I wonder where Lohse goes now. The Phils and Braves could both use him.
Oh, I thought they wanted both, but the Mets would only give up one and the Twins wanted Gomez due to their immediate lack of a CF. Makes a lot more sense that they'd rather have Martinez.
Since you refer to rumored packages, I'm not exactly sure what you're claiming "happened". When (or if) packages from teams like the Red Sox or Yankees were ever on the table is a matter of conjecture and debate, so I find it difficult to say with any certainty how Smith overplayed his hand. Given what I do know (that Santana had a complete no-trade and only six months left on his current deal), I think that a package of high upside, high risk players was probably the best that we could have expected from the eventual trade for Minnesota.
I'm also glad for the NL. The NL needs the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mets to spend money (wisely) so the other teams in the league aren't content with being mediocre.
From what was reported, they wanted Kennedy as well.
Since you refer to rumored packages, I'm not exactly sure what you're claiming "happened".
Of course, we can only go by what we hear in the papers. If you're looking for a formal statement on what they're offering in trade negotiations, then your statement (the Twins got the best package they could) is a tautology.
Santana has said that he would veto any trade during the season. Wasn't really an option.
By the time that happened -- IF it happened -- the trading deadline almost certainly would have past. The odds the Indians and Tigers would be so far ahead of both the Red Sox and Yankees, who would then be locked in mortal combat and thus have maximum incentive to bid up the price for Johan, are tiny. Smith would more likely have been left with the option of sending Santana to a division rival than in the catbird seat.
I'm all for building with prospects, but I think the Yankees may have underestimated their need. I get the sense that the Yankees are having a bit of an identity crisis. The Red Sox just won the World Series and look to have a very good rotation without Santana. They could play this coy, as they did. The Yankees lost in the first round again and have a rotation that is highly dependent on prospects and veterans that are injury risks. Santana would have been just as big of an asset to the Yankees as he would be to the Mets. I think Hughes is a fantastic prospect and I can understand the desire to take him off the table, but it seems as if the Yankees didn't even try to counter with a Tabata/Jackson/Horne/Karstens package or something similar. That doesn't make sense to me.
Then again, he couldn't seem to learn from Pedro and Tom Glavine . . . .
Sigh.
Will there ever be a point when Mulvey/Humber/Gomez/Guerra contribute more on the field than Johan Santana? I say no.
Of course, we can only go by what we hear in the papers.
Agreed. What I read in the papers was often contradictory and portrayed the Red Sox and Yankees as conflicted pursuers of Santana. Thus, I don't believe that Smith necessarily overplayed his hand. He was dealing with some very serious obstacles and moving targets, and he ended up with a group of projectable, high upside players, which I felt was a must for any Santana deal. I guess that's why I seem to disagree with the vast majority of people here, in believing that the Twins did pretty well, all things considered.
No, the best part about this trade is that it makes Wallace F'ing Matthews look like a total idiot. That is always the best part of anything good the Mets do.
I repeat: you will have to look at the ways in which the Mets go about dealing with replacing Moises Alou, El Duque, and Carlos Delgado (and perhaps Pedro) starting in 2009 before you can tell me that this trade wasn't a "future for now" trade. They may also need to replace their closer, and their catcher and second baseman (depending on other things). Even if you don't particularly like the players themselves, they did represent possible assets the Mets could have used to go about filling SOME of those holes that will need to be filled. Now, they have fewer options to deal with their future needs. In a meaningful sense, they have restricted their ability to deal with their future in order to deal with their now.
Was it worth it? Yes. But will it affect how easily they can meet future needs? Absolutely.
And the over/under for no-hitters should probably be around 5, perfect games about 3.
Oh yeah, the Mets will go 127-35...
Sounds like soemthing Buster Olney would say. I remember he said that Beltran should sign with the Yankees because the Mets were not likely to make the playoffs in year 1 of the deal. A 7-year deal can only be valued by the first year!
What really interests me is how highly the Twins value Gomez. Would they have been so much worse off taking Austin Jackson, Jeff Marquez, Ross Ohlendorf and Alan Horne? It seems they were insistent on making the Yankees and Red Sox pay through the nose. Any you guys think Gomez is clear-cut better than Jackson, or has a higher upside?
Either that, or the Yankees and Red Sox weren't really that interested in the first place.
Maybe he meant a combined top 10 list. I could see an argument for that.
I certainly believed the Yanks and RS were conflicted pursuers but a Hughes or Lester or Ellsbury centered package were all widely reported. Sure, they were moving targets in that each package was pulled or put back but that those package were offered. You either beieve those reports or you don't. And if you do, Smith overplayed his hand.
While I bet there will be such a point, you're right, that there's a very strong chance the answer is "no", is a pretty good indication of how good a deal this is.
Personally, I'm just happy for Johan to leave Minnesota. I got so bloody tired of watching him lose games like this last season.
In 2007, Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, and Duque combined to strike out 749 batters in 762.2 IP. That's good for a k/9 of 8.84.
Crazy athlete money is turning the market for elite talent in such twisted ways. The Miami Dolphins probably won't be able to achieve their dream of trading away the #1 pick in the NFL draft. The Twins get a package of wishes and dreams for the best pitcher available in at least two years?
YES!
If no one at all is willing to give the Dolphins anything for the #1 pick, they could simply pass. That's allowed in the NFL draft.
He could run circles around them though. But he couldn't out-crack the new Rangers CF.
Last month, I even harbored thoughts about making the Mets a lower priority in my life than watch Omar shred my heart trade by trade.
Today, Omar redeemed himself and much, much more.
After watching that video, I think David Wright is an enormously boring human being.
Sorry Sam!
Only problem is - I got none except to say @#@$@@!!@# is that all it takes to land Santana?
I mean seriously-- of all the teams that could afford Johan -- you're telling me none of them could or would be that pile of overrated drek?
How so? Because they could trade him during the season? BEcause 2 picks are better? Because 2 picks and a good chance at the playoffs are better?
You think he CAN'T? Guy's feckin' nasty.
Dempster notwithstanding, the Cubs are as deep in hard-throwing righthanded relievers as any team in baseball. They're about the last team that'd trade much for Nathan.
Mets: Well we've got 2 paperclips, a nail and a button in our pocket.
auctioneer: yep, that'll do!
If they would, why didn't we hear a rumor about ANY other team stepping forward with an offer? I can think of only two reasons. They weren't interested in paying the combined freight (in talent to the Twins and dollars to Santana) it would cost, or they knew that Santana wouldn't approve a trade to them (perhaps some teams even approached the Twins and were told as much -- we don't know that).
The fact that so much money has to change hands makes a lot of teams say they just won't ALSO hand over a bushel-basket of talent, and that is, frankly, NOT an unreasonable position.
Is Colon still available?
When my friend told me about the deal - my heart sank because I was sure we gave up the Franchise.
Me too, I saw the headline on the hot topics list and thought "oh no".
Yeah, but I heard he wants 4-8 million guaranteed and he hasn't been pitching well in the Dominican.
You know who is still available?
Kris Benson.
Is Colon still available?
Good God, people. We're about to get Johan Santana, and you're still out there macking on starting pitchers? Can you give it a rest for one day, at least???
#152, Russlan.
Maybe they think the deal is "just fine," and are looking for a little more?
Look toward the future, isn't that what you always say?
It better be, the supplies of liquid of feces are running low.
Barring injuries, we have to be a 90+ win team now, no?
If Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia are how you "look toward the future," I think you've heard my words, but missed my point! ;-)
first shot at AA: Ellsbury slightly better than Gomez
second shot at AA: Ellsbury dominated, Gomez N/A
AAA: Gomez slightly better than Ellsbury
MLB: Ellsbury dominated, Gomez sucked.
So, aside from 200 ABs at the end of 2007, they seem pretty comparable. Oh, and Gomez was/is two years younger than Ellsbury at each of those levels.
Is everyone just so blinded by Ellsbury's post-season heroics?
I'm not saying that Ellsbury isn't better than Gomez, just that when scouts compare Gomez to Carl Crawford (whose MiLB stats are very similar to Gomez's), we may want to acknowledge that the gap isn't nearly as large as the mass media hype machine would lead you to believe.
Yes.
Also, people don't realize he's 24 already.
I'm surprised the Red Sox haven't traded him. He seems to be very likely at the top of his perceived value, and it's not like the team doesn't have 15 other "fan favorites" to make people quickly forget he existed.
1. Because keeping him makes it easier to sell tickets; without him, it's more likely they'll fall 10 games out by June and play before sparse crowds all year. There IS a financial impact here.
2. Because they have the flexibility to either get a better offer sometime in the next couple weeks, or use him through the season and then trade him at the deadline for probably not much less, if at all less, than the Mets gave up just now.
3. Because they COULD sign him to an extension. Personally, I don't think it's crazy for the Twins to spend 6/120 on him, if they can convince him to sign for that. The Twins have money; Pohlad just doesn't like to spend it. And they have a new park coming. They could afford to re-sign him, if they really wanted to.
4. Because, while making the playoffs even with Santana is a long shot--they'd need a lot to go right AND a lot to go wrong with the Indians and Tigers--making the playoffs without him is a near impossibility. They COULD contend with him in 2008.
5. Because, even in the worst-case scenario that they don't make the postseason and Santana walks after the year, they still get two first-round picks, which isn't as good as what they got from the Mets... but it isn't far enough behind to justify bypassing items 1-4 above.
If the Twins couldn't get a serious, MLB ready prospect for Santana, they should have kept him.
"Minnesota called the Yankees today, hoping to get some sort of offer. Brian Cashman didn’t budge.
Boston reportedly took Jon Lester off the table and was offering a package led by Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie."
IMO, Sabathia and Teixeira are the biggest winners from this Santana trade, because they immediately become THE most atractive commodities in the 2008-2009 off-season - and both the Mets and Yankees have over $45MM coming off the books and a desire to upgrade at pitcher and 1B.
Long term, the Indians and Braves both stand to lose, because unless Sabathia and/or Teixeira fall in love with the cities they're playing in, they have a big payout waiting for them at the end of this year.
1. Probably true. But not enough to make a big difference in the long run.
2. False. If in all this time, and with Smith having issued a call for "best offers," no other team stepped forward, it should be obvious by now that the interest in paying a huge price in prospects and $120M+ for Santana just isn't there. There is not a market for the product Smith was selling. If a full year of Santana isn't worth more than the Mets paid, then two months of Santana at the deadline isn't, either. Bottom line: you believe in what the market tells you, or you don't. I do. The market of offers -- or their lack -- for Santana tells you what you need to know about his value.
3. They could, but they weren't. You can't blame Smith for taking the deal when he knew Pohlad isn't willing to pay the market price for extension.
4. We just differ here. The Twins with Santana were no contender in 2008. Not in that league, not in that division.
5. So that leaves only # 1 with some validity, and that's not enough to just hold on to him and take the draft picks instead of the Mets' package.
Given Giuliani's defeat, the renaming of "America" to "9/11" has been permanently put on hold.
No way. Ellsbury's value is artificially inflated by public perception, and Crisp's value is currently at a low. Crisp is likely to outperform Ellsbury in the short run, and so whatever value Lester can provide is a bonus.
In light of that, I'd say they blew it. In a vacuum, I'd say 4 B to B+ prospects is a reasonably good haul for 1 year of Santana (+ picks).
If Masterson or some other decent prospect was included, that sounds better than the Mets' package.
I think the Twins put quite a lot of value on getting Santan out of the league. In NY (AL) or Bos, he was a major barrier to them ever competing for the wildcard.
I would take those two alone over the Mets' package. What an awful trade for the Twins.
The Phils make a late move and get Feliz; the Mets, Santana. Hmm... (Not that the Phils really had anything to offer)
At least the Mets' farm system isn't any deeper than the Phils any more. :(
Yeah, I'm a little down.
I am so glad Furtado banned idiotic hyperbole at BTF, otherwise I'd be liable to take this tripe seriously.
As a Red Sox fan I'm not quite ready to throw a Santana-departure party, but I'm definitely more than "relieved". I know there are so many logical arguments why trading a handful of pretty-good prospects for an ace pitcher makes sense, but I was never all that excited about the idea in the first place. Mostly stupid, sentimental reasons. Beckett is our "ace" and doesn't deserve to be upstaged by somebody making literally twice as much. Ellsbury is fun to watch. Lester has been our "future" for so long, and after coming back from surgery seems to be on the verge of real success (at least viewed through these rose-colored goggles).
The Red Sox are still the best team in the AL, if not by an overwhelming margin.
Not only is Santana a pitcher who plays only 1 in 5 games, he's also not the "face of the franchise" in Minnesota -- Mauer and Morneau have been just as popular among fans as well as in the team's marketing. I doubt that this trade impacts ticket sales too severely as long as they can hang near .500, especially not with "new ballpark priority" already in play.
#### Bill Smith. Those two and anything is better than the Mets offers.
I know this wasn't directed at me, but I'll bite: [1] hit for power.
Play CF defense in Fenway? I mean, if you're going to stick to your hyperbolic "twice as good" line it's not going to be that hard. Jacoby might get to be as good as Crisp was in CF with a bit of work, but he's not there yet.
There were a lot of reports that came out yesterday that the rumor that the Sox had pulled Lester (which came from Olney) simply wasn't true. A Twins beat writer (Neal III) did say that the names at the back had changed, although Lowrie was still in it (so Masterson was out).
I think I may owe an apology to the legions of people I've held in contempt for thinking that the Sox were only in it to block the Yankees.
Sorry about that...
Last year with Santana the Twins ranked 9th in AL attendance at just under 2.3M. The bottom 5 teams:
9. Minn 2.30M
10. Cle 2.27
11. Bal 2.2
12. Oak 1.9
13. KC 1.6
14. TB 1.4
How far do think the Twins will fall in attendance in 2008? Can they draw about the same as a hapless Balt organization? Will they fall below Oak at 1.9M? All the way down to the dregs of the AL at ~1.5M?
I have no idea, but it doesn't seem to be a stretch that they'll top 2M. If the attendance loss is in the ballpark of 300k, I'd rather have the prospects than the picks.
Your points #2 and 3 are issues that the Twins have clearly explored. That they haven't explored them to your satisfaction isn't compelling to me.
I don't know about #4. I'd be curious about the BP odds report with and without Santana. Is it 2% vs 10%? 1% vs 20%? 5% vs 10%?
If attendance drops by 300k and the playoff odds only drop by a handful of percentage points, then I'd rather have the prospects. That's not a slam dunk - and let me say I think the Mets offer was the 3rd best - but it's not improbable either.
Logical paradox logical paradox BRAIN EXPLODE!
The Indians are in much better shape than the Twins, and should legitimately compete in '08 (so if they keep talk about keeping C.C. it's not an empty threat). At the same time it looks less likely that he'll sign another discounted deal, so you're looking at draft picks if he leaves, and Santana will likely set the benchmark he'll be looking at for an extension (which I have hard time seeing Cleveland giving to him).
Throw into the mix that Bill James was gushing about CC earlier in the offseason, and the Indians decided that the pitcher with the best stuff they faced (after Beckett) in the post season was Lester, is there a match to be found?
I think their intent is to compete in 2010, maybe 2009.
They probably expect the Tigers to decline quickly due to age at key positions (Ordonez, Sheffield, IRod, etc.) and a completely gutted farm system.
If Cleveland stays good they need to beat Cle or one of NY and Bos.
I would bet they think sending Santana to either NY or Bos would cause the other to react with even more spending in an AL East "superpower" arms race, and making it much harder for Minn. to compete with them.
Just my 2 cents.
Well, at least you're backing off the "twice as good" part. That's something.
To my eye Jacoby has a real problem with walls, which is going to causes a problem when playing half his games in Fenway if it's not corrected. I think June might be a tad optomistic, but overall I do think Ellsbury will outplay Crisp. But this is mostly due to my feeling that Coco needs a change of scenery. I don't think it's going to happen for him in Boston.
Crisp has 2827 MLB PAs and has a career OPS+ of 94 (.280/.329/.409)
Ellsbury's career minor league numbers are .314/.390/.426 (low offense environments) and he hit .353/.394/.509 in 127 MLB PAs
I would be quite surprised if Ellsbury can't handily top Crisp's career averages in 2008
While I agree, that isn't a fair comparison. I think there might very well be a time when those 4 plus a player on the Twins that costs the difference between Santana's salary and the 4 of them is higher than Santana's value. Although there's a decent chance that even that never happens.
He gonna suck
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