Fun trade. I like it for the D-Rays.

1. They sure up SS defense, which was a huge hole for them.
2. They clear up their outfield jam and get rid of their worst outfielder.*
3. They get a #2-3 starter in Garza, who will find a nice place somewhere in between Kazmir-Price-Shields.

*Yea, that outfielder was the top prospect in baseball a few years ago and has tremendous upside, but he was also a malcontent with noticeable holes in his game. He might turn out to be a very good player, but the Rays traded from a strength.

Garza for Young is the type of trade the Twins need to make. There's only so much value in having a 12-man starting rotation in 2010 within the organization.

(copied from the Dugout)

That lets the Twins choose to play young Alexei Casilla at either 2b or SS Harris and Punto fill the other spot. But if he keeps making dumb mental mistakes he may sit behind both of them. After Castillo left last year they tried to give it to him and eventually made Punto the starter out of exasperation.

I like Bartlett better than most people, but I think it's an OK trade simply because I think Rincon has been ridden hard for five years (~350 games) and Garza is not a singular talent in MIN, whereas Young might be the day he arrives. At the very least it shows Smith is more willing than Ryan to make some moves, which offers hope to MN fans.

I think this means Minn. thinks they're getting a SP as a part of the Santana deal. Or, they don't think they will be able to make a deal.

Not to be too dramatic, but great trade for baseball, I think. Glad to see Tampa making an intelligent move, looking to actually put some of those chips into play and make a real run at competing in the next couple of years.

Also, this has repercussions for the Santana trade, right? Maybe the Twins don't place as much emphasis on getting a ML-ready OF back? Or maybe this means they're making an effort to keep Santana.

I agree with Will Young. Even though the Twins never seemed to appreciate what they had in Bartlett, they do need to trade pitching for hitting.

I hope this makes them more likely to retain JS, at least for next season, too.

Cross-post from Dugout: What do people think of Pridie? Could he be the Twins' starting CF, or is he too young/really a corner OF?

Its not bad for the Rays. Garza looks like the real deal. Rincon might have dipping K rates, and a steroid user, but he is still a huge upgrade over anyone in the Rays pen ( Which in itself is a big deal ). Bartlett for SS is good short term move, but I don't know what that means for Brignac. Longoria at 3b and Iwamura at 2B i guess. Any which way, thats a huge defensive upgrade. Also look for Ruggiano to be among the candidates for the RF position.

Twins actually come out better in this IMO. They get Young who is going to be a huge boost for them with just last year's production, and he is just going to get better. Pridie had a very good year last year, and can be a serviceable 4th OF. Kubel to DH as a platoon or by himself. If they sign a good CF, this Twins club has improved a lot by plugging some gaping holes.

EDIT : Grammar. And oh, Rincon is the most expensive player in the deal at the moment.

I think the Twins are getting the better deal here. You normally don't trade #1 overall picks who are decent major leaguers at the age of 21. It's not too hard to imagine this being comparable to the Mariners trading Danny Tartabull, or the Brewers trading Gary Sheffield.

All that said, I can see why Tampa would do it. They do need pitching and have a zillion OF, Garza's really promising himself, and maybe Delmon is more of a pain than we know. (Of course, the latter just strengthens a Tartabull/Sheffield analogy.) It could work out well for them, but it's risky.

Are the Twins gonna play Harris at SS? I thought the consensus was that he was completely overmatched there, and was only playing there because Zobrist flopped and because Tampa wanted to see how Harris' bat played. It doesn't seem like anyone should really be planning to play him there, much less one as defensively obsessed as the Twins normally are. I guess the Twins could just as easily play him at 2B or 3B. Wow, they still have some issues, huh.

I really like this trade for the Rays. Gives you a solid young pitcher, a guy that can bolster your bullpen and a starting shortstop you sorely need. Young is a good hitter, but they have a wealth of outfielders, and Pridie and Harris seem like throw ins.

Still, when was the last time a player in his second year with the kind of season Young had got traded after one season?

Great trade for both teams. I'm happy to see a prospects for prospects deal work. Most GMs would probably be afraid to do it.

Looks like a trade that helps both sides out, tho I'm thinking the D-Rays are clear-cut winners (assuming Garza doesn't spontaneously combust). How silly would it be for the Twins to try Harris out @ 3B?

How silly would it be for the Twins to try Harris out @ 3B?

Isn't that his natural position?

Could someone answer exactly what Garza and Bartletts's status is re being cost-controlled please?
Still, at first glance I much prefer it from the Rays' perspective.

These two have looked like obvious trading partners for a few years, so it's great to see them get together. Having lots of folks disagreeing who won the trade is a sign that it was probably pretty fair for both sides.

"Bartlett for SS is good short term move, but I don't know what that means for Brignac."

Bartlett is good enough that they probably wouldn't have trouble re-flipping him in a year, if they wanted to do so.

Very interesting trade.

I think people are underestimating Delmon based on this year. drafted in 03. has spent just 2+ seasons in the minors ( missed half of 1 with the suspension ), and more than held his own in the big leagues without missing a game. He is on the path to being a All Star in cpl of years IMO.

1. Who takes over RF for the Rays? Dukes?

2. That's an impressive young rotation they've got.

Could someone answer exactly what Garza and Bartletts's status is re being cost-controlled please?

Garza doesn't even have a complete year of service and Bartlett has 4 more years of control left.

#14

Bartlett will have 2 years of service time. For a player who's league average or above at SS, that's a pretty good contract.

1. Who takes over RF for the Rays? Dukes?

Dukes if he's around. Maybe Ruggiano otherwise.

1. Who takes over RF for the Rays? Dukes?

Shootout between Dukes, Gomes and Ruggiano.
Put the gun down, Dukes. Not that kind of shootout!

I have a different take on this than most people. I'm not sure that this is a good move for the D-Rays. Tampa is miles away from contending. The only chance of them being competitive in the next few years is for some of their young players to become true superstars. Its not a matter of filling a few holes, its a matter of finding players with the potential to be truly great within a few years.

I'm not completely sold on Young - There is no guarantee that Delmon Young will be a superstar, but at least there's a chance. If I'm Tampa, I do everything I can to keep players with this kind of potential, not trade them away.

Having said all of this, I'm not familiar enough with Bartlett or Garza to estimate their potential for true stardom. But unless its fairly high, I don't make the trade.

How about this scenario for the Twins: Cuddyer moves back to third, Young takes over in right, Pridie starts in center, Kubel in left, and Monroe platoons with a lefty to be determined at DH. Harris can play second and Casilla at short. That might (just might) be a league average offense with Mauer and Morneau anchoring it and Young making progress at the dish.

yowza! I love it. It could be a boon for both teams or regrettable for either, there'll be no way to tell for at least a year or more. Either way it'll be fun to see how Delmon and Garza develop; it's good to see FO's have the courage to make this kind of deal.

How silly would it be for the Twins to try Harris out @ 3B?

Isn't that his natural position?

Hey, the Internet! Looking @ Harris' Baseball Cube page, he seems to have bounced around between 3B and the middle of the diamond throughout his minor & major league career. I think he had a rep for tin glovework @ SS last year, tho - his bat could work @ 3B (which is a position MIN does not have sorted out in the slightest), & maybe sticking him in the corner hides some of his defensive shortcomings. Also, the market's flush w/ semi-competent plug-and-play MI types - maybe they swap some autographed Greg Gagne glossies w/ the Cubs for one of their 383 infielders, or make a modest stab @ signing Matsui?

I love the wrinkle that Pridie adds to this deal - grabbed from the Twins as a Rule 5 pick-up, traded back 2 years later.

I like the trade for both teams. The Twins get a power RH bat and a guy who'll probably be average at 2nd or 3rd. They give up a starter, but they have enough of those. Bartlett's an underrated player, but he's not someone who should hold back the deal.

The Rays get an above average third starter and a good defensive shortstop. They also don't lose that much in their lineup downgrading from Young to Ruggiano. They are losing Young at a low point in his value, but this is a team that has needed to make some kind of big trade for years.

How about this scenario for the Twins: Cuddyer moves back to third, Young takes over in right, Pridie starts in center, Kubel in left, and Monroe platoons with a lefty to be determined at DH. Harris can play second and Casilla at short. That might (just might) be a league average offense with Mauer and Morneau anchoring it and Young making progress at the dish.

Where will Tyner and Punto play? They have to be in the lineup, its a Gardenhire Rule.

Tampa is miles away from contending.

Spefically, they're about 500 miles from contending. If they could somehow move to New Orleans and switch places with Cleveland to get into the AL Central, they could contend in the next few years. But as long as they're with the Yankees and Red Sox, they aren't contending anytime soon.

For some reason, given the Twins love of scrappy and crappy players, I think they are going to bite on Rowand. Whatever happens, they have all the pieces in place to piece together an atleast average offence with good defence. It will be interesting to see how they screw it up.

EDIT : Tampa isn't that far from contending. They should be in third place and atleast 500 record by 2009.

With Rondell retiring, the DH job is Tyner's to lose!

with a lefty to be determined at DH.

Ooh, Punto's a lefty. I see a real DH controversy between those two guys.

EDIT : Tampa isn't that far from contending. They should be in third place and atleast 500 record by 2009.

That's what a lot of people said last year. And the year before that. I'll believe it once they conquer the 70 win plateau.

Other than a stigma surrounding them, I see no reason why the RAYS are miles away from contending. They have positional stars, pitching stars, and a deep farm system. I'd say they're two years away from contending. Maybe that's considered "miles," but I don't think it's too far off.

SP1- Kazmir
SP2- Shields
SP3- Price
SP4- Garza
SP5- Davis/Niemann

1B- Pena
2B- Iwamura
SS- Bartlett
3B- Longoria
LF- Crawford
CF- Upton
RF- Baldelli/Dukes/Gomes
DH- Baldelli/Dukes/Gomes

The relief is a big problem, but you figure that can be assuaged by putting your excess starting pitching prospects in the pen.

Get them a closer and they're set.

Delmon Young trivia: he is the youngest player ever to play 162 games in a season. The second-youngest is Dick Allen. Of the fifteen youngest 162-game seasons, five, oddly enough, have come in the last two years: Young, Ryan Zimmerman, Grady Sizemore, and two by Jeff Francoeur.

B-Ref PI is my pilot. I am only the co-pilot.

Still, when was the last time a player in his second year with the kind of season Young had got traded after one season?

An OPS+ of 91????

Snarkiness aside Young's OPS by year:
2004: .923 (A)
2005: .881 (AA/AAA)
2006: .815 (AAA)
2006: .812 (MLB)
2007: .724 (MLB)

He is still very young, BUT, he's not really progressing is he? (Then again Upton seemed to have stalled out a year ago too...)

His production has been very good for his age, but no so good in absolute terms.
His K/BB has deteriorated with every promotion. I really don't think he's as highly regarded (or should be) as he was 1 to 2 years ago.

Personally I think Delmon was rushed, he really was not ready to play FT in the MLB in 2007, he didn't have a particulary good year, yes I know .288 with 93 ribbies, but he wasn't all that good. It probably won't hurt his development, he got to play every day and wasn't overwhelmed- but did the Rays really need to start his service clock so quickly? (No, but than they didn't need to\p start Crawford's either).

I'm actually very high on Garza (and was greatly heartened by the fleeting Garza for Carlos Gomez rumor a while back) and so really like this trade from TB's POV. (and it's not bad from MInny's POV either- they do need young offensive players/prospects).

TB had an OPS+ of 103 and an ERA+ of 82, bad pitching, bad dee and offensive prospects oozing out of cracks everywhere.

After Kazmir and Shields TB's starters put up ERA+s of 78, 77, 74, 60, 59, 56
Yikes. Assuming Kazmir and Shields stay the same, Edwin Jackson's second half 4.48 (roughly 101) is for real, assuming Garza can put up a 100 or so...
That team ERA+ of 82 should go to 92-95- without even fixing that sinkhole of a bullpen

I'm not sure that this is a good move for the D-Rays. Tampa is miles away from contending. The only chance of them being competitive in the next few years is for some of their young players to become true superstars. Its not a matter of filling a few holes, its a matter of finding players with the potential to be truly great within a few years.

I don't think Tampa's as far from contention as you seem to. Offensively, they're already a contender - 5th in the AL in OPS+, 5th in runs scored on the road. Their problems are pitching and defense.

They had two pitchers who started ANY games and had an ERA+ over 78. And they got a grand total of 69 relief innings from relief pitchers who put up ERA+ over 100 (actually over 92). I mean, they didn't even have any random guys who managed to put up a fluke ERA+ of 130 in 8 innings or something.

But what's promising to me is that the 2 starters w/ ERA+ better than 78 that they DID have had a combined W-L record of 25-17. All they need is a good defensive shortstop, one or two more major-league ready starters, and some live arms in the bullpen and they're right there. And they just filled all three of those holes - not completely, of course - with one trade. Nicely done, I'd say.

I don't know anyone that actually claimed the D-Rays could contend anytime recently, regardless of sharing a division with the Payroll Punks. The offensive pieces are definitely there; the problem was the pitching, especially their bullpen & the back-end of their rotation. Garza & Rincon go a long way towards addressing those issues. They're probably in a similar spot that Cleveland was in 2-3 years ago, and could be on their way to realizing their own run of prolonged success.

Other than a stigma surrounding them, I see no reason why the RAYS are miles away from contending.

How about the fact that they had close to the same team last year, and might have been the worst team in baseball?

I know the Rays are young, and that some of their players might develop, but it takes A LOT to turn at 65 win team into a 95 win team, especially with limited financial resources.

Other than a stigma surrounding them, I see no reason why the RAYS are miles away from contending. They have positional stars, pitching stars, and a deep farm system. I'd say they're two years away from contending. Maybe that's considered "miles," but I don't think it's too far off.

Even for next year, they have 3 above average SP in Kazmir/Shields/Garza. And a pick of Sonnanstine, Jackson ( who was starting to show some signs of life ), Howell and Hammel. that pen is a problem. Reyes was fine as closer, but the rest sucked.

I like how I reiterated what the last 4 posts said, but without actual stats to back me up.

This is a classic good-for-both-sides deal, imo. Young was the odd man out in TB and I think Friedman cashed in on his value at the right time (if this is indeed true). Garza can be a good #2-3 starter going forward behind Kazmir and Shields, and the SS swap helps TB immensely just in terms of defensive runs saved. I'm guessing this means Kubel is DH'd, Monroe is nontendered or is the 4th OF, Cuddyer's in right and they still need a CF?

That would be a great trade from the Rays' perspective. Jason Bartlett is your classic under-appreciated talent. One of the top 5 defensive shortstops in the game, according to Rally and the Fielding Bible, and a perfectly adequate hitter. If Iwamura can make the move to second base, the Rays would have themselves a ball club, rather than a collection of talents.

I'm starting up the bandwagon, guys - hop on board! (I'd probably become a full-fledged fan if it weren't for the uni & the stadium.)

All they need is a good defensive shortstop, one or two more major-league ready starters, and some live arms in the bullpen and they're right there.

Their defense was the worst in baseball last year - only the Marlins were close. Their DER was just atrocious. It wasn't just the shortstop. As for the pitching, Garza and Rincon begin to address the issues. They are several quality starters and several good defensive players away from being good at that end. That's not a little, that a lot.

And Bartlett should improve the defense, though he obviously is not as good a hitter as Harris.

How about the fact that they had close to the same team last year, and might have been the worst team in baseball?

Not close. Upton finally has a spot. Their defence is shored up and has a settled look. Everyone is not being yanked all over the place. And for the first time, they have a CHANCE of patching together a average pitching staff.

This is a very risky move for the Rays. Not only have they traded a former #1 pick who was an everyday player in the majors at the age of 21 but they did so for a guy who is very far from a sure thing. While Garza may end up as a good major league pitcher he has been very hittable so far in his major league and AAA career. Last year his BABIP was .345 in the majors and .349 in AAA. Those are very high numbers in a not insignificant sample size. In order to project this to be a good trade for the Rays you have to assume that Garza will be able to post league average numbers in this area. The problem is that there is no good reason to make this assumption.

Big win for the Twins.

Does Garza really project to be an above-average starter in the AL East? What's his upside/ceiling? Me, I'd've asked the price for Mr. Tommy John Francisco Liriano...

Get them a closer and they're set.

and a fan base

and a half-decent stadium

How was Young defensively in CF?

And the fact that they knuckled under to a foaming mob.

I think this is a great move for the Rays. They could be looking at a rotation of Kazmir/Price/Garza/Shields/McGee for 2009. That looks pretty sick on paper. And while Delmon Young certainly has the tools to become a perennial all-star, he has no chance of reaching that status as long as his walk rate is <4%. The rays have no shortage of guys who can play right field either, with Dukes, Gomes, Guzman, and Baldelli all being possibilities. (Baldelli, of course, will play all of 5 games before his hamstring snaps.) Really, another year of growth from Upton, Gomes, and the other young kids, a couple decent pieces in the bullpen, and a slighty better bench should put the Rays in a position to win 85-90 games in a couple years.

Even assuming the D-Rays are "miles away from contending", doesn't Garza have even less service time as Young? This doesn't look like a move a contending team makes, it looks like a smart move by a young team with a glut of outfielders makes. You can never have enough starting pitching prospects. Pitching is the commodity of baseball.

How about the fact that they had close to the same team last year, and might have been the worst team in baseball?

I'd agree with you if all their major pieces were 27-30 years old, but these are young players that are going to improve. The Rays have identified three areas of weakness and addressed all three in one move.

Their defense was the worst in baseball last year - only the Marlins were close.

Au Contraire- the Marlins were much worse, I have never seen a team defense as bad as the 2007 Marlins- literally very single position player was below average (defensively) I've never seen that before.

The rays have no shortage of guys who can play right field either, with Dukes, Gomes, Guzman, and Baldelli all being possibilities.

Yeah, they have "no shortage of guys who can play right field," but the only one of those who seems to have much of a chance to actually be exceptionally good is Dukes, and who the hell knows with him. It's a strange philosophy that you trade a 21-year-old potential superstar off a rebuilding team because you have some ok guys to replace him.

I understand that both Garza and Bartlett help Tampa a lot. But they could both be great, and Tampa could still easily regret this trade. I'd imagine that if you looked at the record of #1 overall picks who were in the majors at 21 and not embarrassing themselves (yes, even if they rarely walked and weren't yet league-average hitters...), you'd conclude that has a pretty good chance to happen.

Delmon Young trivia: he is the youngest player ever to play 162 games in a season.

He is also the first rookie to lead the league in Outs.

How was Young defensively in CF?

To my untrained eye, terrible. I don't know what the stats say specifically, but I'm pretty sure that a large part of the reason that TB had a historically bad defense last year was because when Upton was injured, Young was in CF and Gomes (etc) was in RF.

I'd probably become a full-fledged fan if it weren't for the uni & the stadium.

The Rays changed their unis...they've gotten away from the green and have embraced blue. The uni design I saw looked pretty boring.

And as a ChiSox fan I'm continually amazed at the ability of the Twins to reinvent themselves and remain competitive...I guess you could say I'm jealous as well.

How about the fact that they had close to the same team last year, and might have been the worst team in baseball?

I'd agree with you if all their major pieces were 27-30 years old, but these are young players that are going to improve. The Rays have identified three areas of weakness and addressed all three in one move.

Ditto,
1: Their 3, 4 and 5 rotation spots were just absolutely horrific, Garza would be a huge boost just by being league average.
2: Their 2007 defense was terrible, Upton moving from 2B to the OF and Bartlett replacing Harris are BIG upgrades
3: No Devil Ray RP with more than 40 Ip had an ERA+ above 100- Rincon should be some help there...

DanR, Garza struck out over a batter per inning at all levels in the minor leagues. If you look at his BBRef comparables, you get names like Jim Lonborg and Mark Portugal but neither of these guys had the minor league numbers that Garza did. I'd say that his upside is Mike Mussina, but that doesn't mean that he has a 5% chance of getting there.

The difference between the AL Central and the AL East is not huge. Garza is a good bet to be a modestly above-average pitcher, as Lonborg and Portugal were in their day.

He is also the first rookie to lead the league in Outs.

Surely not. What about the first year of organized baseball?

And as a ChiSox fan I'm continually amazed at the ability of the Twins to reinvent themselves and remain competative...I guess you could say I'm jealous as well.

Of course, in order for the White Sox to do that, they'd have to have a decent farm system. The Twins are just tremendous at player development. The White Sox don't have a Matt Garza or a Jason Bartlett to trade away, even if they wanted to.

On the face of it, I can see this as a win-win trade (assuming it happens), though. Young is clearly the centerpiece, but the Rays are getting some talent back.

At first when I heard about the basic Young for Garza trade, I was pretty worried from the TB side. I still believe that considering his age, Young has superstar potential and I don't know a ton about Garza. However, expanding the trade like this only improves the Rays return. The bullpen and SS were the two biggest weaknesses last year and this addresses both of them. I'm not sure how much of an impact Rincon will really have, but Bartlett is a huge pickup for the Rays. And adding Harris and Pridie is no big loss...Harris had a decent year with the bat, but he's lousy defensively and ideally wouldn't have started next year anyway with Longoria at 3B and Iwamura at 2B.

Where does Andy Sonnanstine fit in? He looks like he coudl turn into a solid inning eater for the Devil Rays.

They could be looking at a rotation of Kazmir/Price/Garza/Shields/McGee for 2009

Its very, very unlikely that Price and Garza and Shields and McGee will all turn out to be both durable and above average.

I'd agree with you if all their major pieces were 27-30 years old, but these are young players that are going to improve. The Rays have identified three areas of weakness and addressed all three in one move.

The Rays problem is that their pitching, almost all of it was really, really, awful, and their defense was really, really, awful. This trade began to address those issues, but its not like they are close to being decent on the defensive end. They have a couple of good young hitters, but they really don't have that many young players who are likely to take major steps forward over the next two years, especially after trading Young.

Au Contraire- the Marlins were much worse, I have never seen a team defense as bad as the 2007 Marlins- literally very single position player was below average (defensively) I've never seen that before.

Take a look at the D Rays DER. I suppose some of that can be blamed on the pitching, but the performance of the DRays in turning batted balls into outs was as bad as the Marlins.

A lot of people in this thread are apparently unfamiliar with the fact that as of last offseason Matt Garza was universally lauded as one of the very best pitching prospects in baseball. Hughes and Bailey were 1A and 1B and Garza and Gallardo were 1C and 1D, in some order.

To my untrained eye, terrible. I don't know what the stats say specifically, but I'm pretty sure that a large part of the reason that TB had a historically bad defense last year was because when Upton was injured, Young was in CF and Gomes (etc) was in RF.

This was my impression as well- I'd love to know what the numbers say.

My point is that I don't think this is a deal to replace Torii Hunter- I still think the Twins are looking to the Santana deal for that.

Garza is a good bet to be a modestly above-average pitcher, as Lonborg and Portugal were in their day.

Which is worth, what - 4 years $48 million in today's market?!?!?

Does this trade change the Twins stance on a Santana trade? As in, are they still looking to trade him and if so, are they now more interested in getting a pitcher back for him?

Harris was awful at short, but I thought CW was that Bartlett was subpar in the field. Sure, he may be an upgrade on Harris, but I don't think he makes much difference in the big picture.

Interesting deal, to be sure. I think TB's defense makes Garza's traditional stats look bad and this one goes down as a win in the books for Minny.

Bartlett had a pinched nerve in his neck/back/shoulder area that messed with his play the first half of the year. Most of his errors happened in a month at the start of the season and after that he really settled in. TB is going to like him.

One other thing. There was a long thread last year about how much better the DRays were about to get. People talked about how they were going to win 80 or more games, and be competitive within a short period of time. We had this exact same conversation last year. And I think the year before that.

This isn't based on an exhaustive study, but it sure seems that teams with pitching and defense this truly awful don't see relatively quick turnarounds.

They have a couple of good young hitters, but they really don't have that many young players who are likely to take major steps forward over the next two years, especially after trading Young.

But offensively, they don't need to get any better - or at least not very much. They were fifth in the AL in OPS+ and runs scored on the road (8th in total runs, 3-year Batting Park Factor of 98 (actually, this is entirely because they didn't get to face their own pitchers/defense as I understand how BB-Ref calculates this), 1-year factor of 93).

The trick, of course, is whether they can improve their defense without weakening their offense - either by replacing good hitters with good fielders or by trading away good hitters. Bartlett's a step down offensively from Harris, but not a big one (and I'm skeptical that Harris will hit that good going forward).

I think this is a very good trade by both teams. I think it probably helps the Rays more, both in terms of the magnitude of the improvement and how quickly they'll see that improvement, but this is also a very nice trade for the Twins.

Its very, very unlikely that Price and Garza and Shields and McGee will all turn out to be both durable and above average.

Can't we cross Shields off this list at this point? Shields and Kazmir are proven commodities and I think we can go out on the limb and say Matt Garza is an average major league starting pitcher, so he could be crossed off too. At this point you're left with Davis, McGee, and Price (all probably amongst the 20 or so best prospects in baseball) to somehow turn into something to shore up the back of your rotation. There's also Neimann. I think the Rays are in an excellent position re: SP.

For those knocking the Rays defense, I think something you have to take into account is that in addition to the HUGE upgrade with Bartlett at SS, there's also the upgrade for Upton in CF having a year under his belt. Those are two, obviously, hugely important defensive positions where the Rays should be making up a few wins.

This is going to be a fun offseason. Lots of good trades to talk about.

He is also the first rookie to lead the league in Outs.

Surely not. What about the first year of organized baseball?

Damn...I forgot about Julio Franco.

Yeah, and just to clarify, I think this is a good deal for both sides as well.

Olney says the Rays are about to sign Percival. I'm not sure how well that'll turn out, but it speaks to where they see themselves in terms of competitiveness.

I thought CW was that Bartlett was subpar in the field

MGL had Bartlett third in the AL in UZR in 2007.

DanR, Garza struck out over a batter per inning at all levels in the minor leagues. If you look at his BBRef comparables, you get names like Jim Lonborg and Mark Portugal but neither of these guys had the minor league numbers that Garza did. I'd say that his upside is Mike Mussina, but that doesn't mean that he has a 5% chance of getting there.

I'd say that Lonborg is Garza's upside and that Mussina is hyperbolic fantasy. In order to be Lonborg Garza would have to drop 1-2 H/9 and at least half a walk. That's not impossible but not necessarily likely. In order for Garza to become Mussina he has to develop hall of fame control at the same time as drastically reducing his hit rate. That's very unlikely

This is Garza's translated career line:
YEAR IP H ER HR BB HBP SO ERA W L SV H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9

Career 161.7 190 87 17 60 4 120 4.84 9 13 0 10.6 .9 3.3 6.7

That's not especially good. And while Garza had a spectacular minor league season in 2006, 2007 was much more ordinary. Garza has enough to like that I would want him on my team however he's not anywhere near the level that most people in this thread are taking as a given.

Wow. I'm not sure if I like this move or not. It's great to bring in some offense, but the Twins pitching depth just vanished. You can certainly tell that Terry Ryan isn't the GM anymore. At least they are bringing in a top-shelf talent in return, but I liked Garza a lot.

After this, the Twins are still looking for a centerfielder I assume....and an infielder of some sort. That might be it though....they should have almost $15 million to spend after filling their DH and other OF holes with Young and Monroe. That's not a bad place to be at this point....they could even surprise some people in the free agent market. Of course they could also blow their money of resigning Silva or some washed up starter to provide depth now that Garza is gone.

It seems like Torii Hunter has some connections with the Youngs....I wonder if his parting with the Twins will effect Young's attitude at all. Of course, he might just be happy to get out of Tampa.

Pridie seems like just the type of guy the Twins like....speedy left handed outfielders who can't hit for much power....if they didn't already have about 6 of them in their system, he'd be a fine addition. He might be the best of the 6, but he doesn't seem like much more than a 4th outfielder to me.

I kind of like the idea of Harris at 3rd. He's not going to knock anyone's socks off, but he shouldn't be an embarrassment....a nice cheap outside-the-box type of upgrade, while still allowing Gardy to play Punto like surely he wants to.

Dizzyp, i think the d-rays terrible DER is likely also a culprit of bad pitching. Their pitchers were serving up a LOT of meatballs, which translates to higher BABIP (unless you think the only determinant of team BABIP is defense - I strongly disagree). Finally, their bad DER is likely due to regress toward the mean anyway.

Line by line, I think it's likely that they'll be significantly better on defense. Here's the current outfield:

LF Crawford
CF Upton
RF Baldelli / Ruggiano

Those guys are all very fast (except maybe Ruggiano, who i don't know) and can throw. They won't have Delmon in CF any more or whoever was out there before Upton moved. The infield is:

1B Pena
2B Iwamura
SS Bartlett
3B Longoria

Pena is probably average, and doesn't make a big difference either way. Iwamura is likely to be below average (although he was a 2B in Japan), but Upton was AWFUL there last year, so this is likely a net upgrade. Bartlett (who is good) replaces Harris (who was bad). And Longoria is reputedly a good fielder, so put him in the 0 to negative five range - not likely to hurt too badly.

Sure, they aren't the Rockies of last year, but that's not even close to the 2007 Marlins. Put some pitchers on the mound who don't get rocked every time out and maybe they can catch a few more balls.

How was Young defensively in CF?

Like a Hall of Famer. Ken Griffey Jr. to be specific. Cincinatti Ken, not Seattle Ken.

If this trade happens then TB vastly improves their defense. Pretty much all of the terrible defenders from last year will either be gone or moved to positions that better suit their talents. If they were -80 or -150 or whatever in fielding last year it has nothing to do with this year.

Above average: LF Crawford, SS Bartlett
At least average: 1B Pena RF Baldelli (assuming he gets the job)
Probably average but unknown: CF Upton, 3B Longoria 2B Iwamura

Upton looked OK in center, he has the tools, he should improve quickly as he gains experience out there. Iwamura and Longoria have good defensive reputations.

The only defensive hole I see is if Gomes or Dukes gets the majority of time in RF, if Iwamura has trouble with the switch to 2B, or Longoria doesn't live up to the hype.

Its very, very unlikely that Price and Garza and Shields and McGee will all turn out to be both durable and above averag

Shields already is durable and above average. Price, Garza, and McGee are wild cards, but so are Davis, Neimann, Townsend, Howell, Sonnanstine, Ryu, Jackson ... there's a lot of depth here, and not all of them have to pan out. The Rays are doing this right. They've got way more talented pitching prospects than they need, and they might end up with enough.

Also, how is this thread much different from Yankees threads where Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy are all assumed to be average or better next year?

Olney says the Rays are about to sign Percival. I'm not sure how well that'll turn out, but it speaks to where they see themselves in terms of competitiveness.

This gives them Reyes, Percival, Rincon and Wheeler at the end of their pen. They can throw 2 of Hammel, Jackson and Howell down there too and still have a good rotation with minor league depth behind that. If they can fix their defense, and a big part of that is already taken care of by stabilizing it and adding Bartlett, I'm going to pick them as a surprise playoff contender next year.

No way the Twins can move Johan now.
Not unless they get two starters back.
they will be giving up 2/5th of their rotation.

I like it. It gives one hope that Smith isn't another obsessively risk-averse jobsworth like Ryan was becoming.

Garza for Young is the type of trade the Twins need to make. There's only so much value in having a 12-man starting rotation in 2010 within the organization.

Classic trade, good points. It will be followed years from now. I like Garza a little more than Young. But overall I think both players will turn out to be just a shade above average. A winning trade for both teams. Provided DY grows up.

Actually that'd be 3/5 of the rotation: Santana, Silva and Garza going leaves Liriano Baker Slowey Bonser Blackburn to start with Perkins in the wings when one inevitably fails.

The Jerry Royster Experience

And as a ChiSox fan I'm continually amazed at the ability of the Twins to reinvent themselves and remain competative...I guess you could say I'm jealous as well.

Of course, in order for the White Sox to do that, they'd have to have a decent farm system. The Twins are just tremendous at player development. The White Sox don't have a Matt Garza or a Jason Bartlett to trade away, even if they wanted to.

On the face of it, I can see this as a win-win trade (assuming it happens), though. Young is clearly the centerpiece, but the Rays are getting some talent back.

I'd say apart from Mauer & Morneau, the Twins aren't that great at position player development, especially in the slugging department. Just because they can claim major-league farm products like Guzman and Rivas doesn't mean they should.

No way the Twins can move Johan now.
Not unless they get two starters back.
they will be giving up 2/5th of their rotation.

I have to agree with this. What it allows the twins to do is play the start of the season out with Santana and Young and see if they can position themselves for the playoffs. Why wash away 2008 now when there is a (outside) chance that Liriano is "back" and you have such great young front-line players. Sneak into the playoffs and the pitching and star power could carry you.

Last year his BABIP was .345 in the majors and .349 in AAA. Those are very high numbers in a not insignificant sample size. In order to project this to be a good trade for the Rays you have to assume that Garza will be able to post league average numbers in this area. The problem is that there is no good reason to make this assumption.

There is a very good reason to make that assumption. All you have to do is look beyond the player's most recent season. His minor league hBIP in 2006 was about .245. Much in the lower minors, but he didn't drop off as he moved up the ladder, in 34 AAA innings he gave up 20 hits.

I would pull the trigger on this deal if I were the Devil Rays and be happy if Garza was anything better than average. Bartlett solidifies the defense. Young has a greater future than the best of Gomes, Baldelli, or Dukes but the difference over the next 5 years shouldn't be that great, and beyond that the D-Rays won't be able to afford him anyway.

Is Sonnanonnanstine any worse as a #4 or #5 starter than most of what is out there?

Just polling this thread. Did any Rays fan respond? Is there a Rays fan on BTF? I remember a poster called Whiz n Ski ( Wisinki really ) and a moonlighting dJF

Is Navarro still the catcher? He's another former top prospect who is only going to be 23 and probably has some upside.

What about Delmon Young for Miguel Cabrera? How much more would it take to pull him in?

#94 -- I'm a Rays fan...also a fan of this trade. But I think it's a nice deal for both sides.

Like a Hall of Famer. Ken Griffey Jr. to be specific. Cincinatti Ken, not Seattle Ken.

Very true. Young fielded .954 in his 30 games in CF in 2007, a distinction which I'm sure must be horrible.

Young is an enticing player due to his age, but man are his flaws large. Has a terrible OBP because he doesn't walk and swings at anything within a zip code of the strike zone, doesn't steal bases, plays terrible defense. He's got a great arm but all his throws are 10 feet up the line. He will get better, I'm sure, since he's only 21 and probably should have been in AAA this year, but he's very, very raw.

I find it fascinating that Young hit .288 and Dukes hit .190 (and his wife), yet Dukes had a higher OBP than Young (318 vs. 316).

Since I'm taking on the world in arguing that the Devil Rays (!) aren't that good, I'll keep going. As I did last year, when I argued against much opposition that the Devil Rays weren't going to be very good in 2007. Bad franchises tend to stay bad.

The offense was okay last year - about middle of the pack. There seems to be an assumption that they will continue to improve. I don't buy it. Other than Upton, who is going to get much better? Can Pena really be expected to repeat last year? Will they get as much production out of shortstop? Is Baldelli or Crawford or Iwamura really going to get that much better?

I think their offense will continue to be about average. And then there's the pitching. Kazmir is really good. Shields had a very good year, although it should be noted that it was his first. And then they have a bunch of pitching prospects, which really isn't as impressive as it first sounds.

So how is this different from the Yankees? Not much - when it comes to pitching. But the Yankees have a great, great offense, and the funds to keep supplying new talent, along with somewhat of a prove bullpen. The DRays don't. If the Yankees end up with an average pitching staff, they will be competitive. If the DRays end up with an average pitching staff, I don't think they'll be competitive. Its asking a lot from a pitching staff that was the worst in baseball to turn it around to the point where they are among the best within two years, and I don't care how many pitching prospects with no track record they wheel out.

One day, I'll be proven wrong and the DRays will be competitive. The same is true of Pittsburgh, and Kansas City, and Washington. Until then, I'll keep predicting each of these teams is going to stink, and I'll be right more often than not.