Young is an enticing player due to his age, but man are his flaws large. Has a terrible OBP because he doesn't walk and swings at anything within a zip code of the strike zone, doesn't steal bases, plays terrible defense. He's got a great arm but all his throws are 10 feet up the line. He will get better, I'm sure, since he's only 21 and probably should have been in AAA this year, but he's very, very raw.

Good points. Remember, the Twins teach baseball better than just about anyone, anywhere. Interested to see what they can do with this clown.

I don't think the Twins have actually improved themselves. These could all turn out to be marginal players. Which is another way of saying that they also haven't gotten any worse. The Twins success still lies with the big offensive guns really being big. The pitching will be at least league average even without Santana. This just makes them a little bit better balanced which probably has the effect of opening up more options in further player moves, rather than really having a big impact on the field. We won't know until the other shoe drops.

How silly would it be for the Twins to try Harris out @ 3B?

Not at all, especially if the option's Nick Punto. Harris is more a natural 3B than a SS.

I don't think the Twins have actually improved themselves.

Even if Young is avg.....remember the Twins have utter garbage in 3-4 spots in that offense. He will make their offense a bit better, at worst.

Good points. Remember, the Twins teach baseball better than just about anyone, anywhere. Interested to see what they can do with this clown.

Sure. After all they told David Ortiz to "hit like a little #####."

More seriously, if the Twins are planning on putting Young in a corner OF spot then the trade makes sense. If they're planning on putting him in CF then I think the deal makes no sense at all.

Is Baldelli or Crawford or Iwamura really going to get that much better?

I find it fascinating that Carl Crawford's career OPS+ in order, from his first cup of coffee go: 77, 81, 105, 111, 113, 117. I'm going to predict 120 for this year.

I think their offense will continue to be about average

They were well above average this year. Pena might drop off a bit, and I don't think Upton's offence is going to improve. His on-contact numbers ( refer Mr.Walt Davis. Hey, someone reads your posts! ) were staggering. But they can expect improvement from Navarro. Longoria/Iwamura/Dukes fulltime should be an improvement too. Thats why I think 2008 might not be the year. Their pitching and defence will improve, but their offence might take a step back. 2009 is when they should make a serious run. But 08 should be used for consolidation, and building the proverbial "winning" attitude.

They were well above average this year.

They scored 4.83 runs per game last year. The league average was 4.90. The park was relatively neutral. That's way above average?

What is it that the Devil Rays are going to be so good at in 2009? Is their hitting going to be competitive with the Yankees or Red Sox or Cleveland? Is their pitching going to be competitive with LA? How many things have to go right for these things to happen?

I'll go out on a limb and predict at least 71 wins for the Rays in 2008.

Twin fans, was there any talk about a Garza for Carlos Gomez deal in Minnesota papers?

They scored 4.83 runs per game last year. The league average was 4.90. The park was relatively neutral. That's way above average?

They still had a team OPS+ of 103. Probably not as much above average as I thought. But irrelevant as it leads to...

What is it that the Devil Rays are going to be so good at in 2009? Is their hitting going to be competitive with the Yankees or Red Sox or Cleveland? Is their pitching going to be competitive with LA? How many things have to go right for these things to happen?

Not as many things as you might think. They need Longoria not to be a bust. They need defensive stability. They need 2 out of Jackson/Sonnanstine/Price/Mcgee/Niemann to step up. And they have another pitcher I quite like in Hellickson in the low minors.
But most importantly, they need their pen to step up. Which is the biggest X factor. They have good core of offence and pitching. Which is the staple of any contending team. If they get the right complimentary parts, they are in for the ride. IMO, they have a bigger chance of being competitive in 09 and beyond than the Yankees. Esp given the ownership assurances that the payroll will be raised.

Sure. After all they told David Ortiz to "hit like a little #####."

They also taught Santana and Liriano pretty good changeups.

Sure. After all they told David Ortiz to "hit like a little #####."

Don't remind me. I attended many games during the 1998 season and I was a huge fan. I was convinced then, 1998, that Ortiz was going to be a star. All he did was drive balls into the gaps. He was 22 and he was bound to get better and develop power by age 25 like most hitters do.

People forget that Tom Kelly used to have a lot of clout in that organization (possibly still does), it was Kelly that personally didn't like Ortiz. Kelly was the reason that Ortiz spend almost all of 1999 in AAA, wasting away. The Twins had it in for Ortiz, they were horribly mistaken.

I believe they had holes at both 1b and DH (scott stahoviak/ron coomer?), at the time, yet still never figured out Ortiz was the answer.

Had I been a scout at that time, Ortiz would have made my career.

**EDIT...Still not a scout.

They also taught Santana and Liriano pretty good changeups.

Not to pick on you, but I think Liriano's out pitch is a "slider from hell". And really, he is a product of the Giants system.

Good points. Remember, the Twins teach baseball better than just about anyone, anywhere. Interested to see what they can do with this clown.

Well, if they teach Young as well as they taught Hunter, then I guess we can expect a 290/320/450 line just about every year. Very superstar-like.

They still had a team OPS+ of 103. Probably not as much above average as I thought.

Which ranked them 5th in the AL (as I've said twice before). As far as their park, the 3-year park factor was basically neutral, except the Rays' offense didn't have the benefit of facing their god-awful pitching/defense, which gave them a Batting Park factor of 98. Their park also had a 1-year park factor of 93. I don't know why that would be the case (don't they play in a dome? so it's not like the weather changes year-to-year) but if you used that instead, their OPS+ would have been third in the AL last year.

Not to pick on you, but I think Liriano's out pitch is a "slider from hell". And really, he is a product of the Giants system.

Yes, his first 3 years in the Giants org, 2 years in Minnesota. You can't say he was a "Giants" or "Twins" product. Part of the magic of that deal was the Twins org determining Liriano had talent underneath it all. While the Giants yawned.

Of course the Twins admitted that he blossomed to levels they never expected.

One day, I'll be proven wrong and the DRays will be competitive. The same is true of Pittsburgh, and Kansas City, and Washington. Until then, I'll keep predicting each of these teams is going to stink, and I'll be right more often than not.

That's pretty boring.

What the Rays have is obvious strengths and obvious holes. They don't have a bunch of 90 OPS+/ERA+ and a few scattered 105s, they have a bunch of 60-75 OPS+/ERA+ guys dragging a few 125 OPS+/ERA+ guys down. I don't think there is a team in baseball that could be improved as easily as the 2007 Rays, simply by swapping out 2-3 sub-replacement stinkers with simply average players- well except maybe Minnesota.

If there is any team in baseball that potentially fits Bill James' miracle team recipe to a TEE it is TB.

The Devil Rays COULD (not necessarily will) get very good very quickly, I really can't see that happening in KC or Pitt or Washington based upon what is in their organizations right now.

Garza's 2007 BABIP was terrible, but no one is truly that bad, not even Glendon Rusch, and Garza's BABIPs in prior years (minor league) were actually good. I think it's far more likely he puts up a league average BABIP in 2008 than a repeat of .345- and with his peripherals he's a good pitcher.

I guess what you think of this trade comes down to what you think of Young v. Garza
I don't think Young is an elite prospect (not any more) and I think Garza is going to be very good. I think Young will be good (he wasn't in 2007) but I don't think he'll be a real star-

What do Delmon Young's BBREF comps all have in common with each other? They were all better through age 21 than Delmon (the closest was Baldelli). What do probably 90% of all players allowed to play 150 games in their age 21 season have in common- they were better than Delmon Young at age 21. That's the problem with basing a projection of Young on that criteria - how many 1st round draft picks played 150 games at age 21?

I'm a Rays fan. I'm not a huge fan of the trade, but I don't think it's awful either. A pretty significant number of Rays diehards absolutely hate this trade, seeing it as Young for Garza with spare parts, and see Garza as a #3/#4 in a few years while Young turns the corner that people expected him to turn. Who knows though. You can get a good idea of intelligent Rays fans' views here: http://www.raysbb.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=8597&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

I'm a Rays fan.

wow...
Maybe one of these days I'll spot an Ivory Billed Woodpecker now...

"One day, I'll be proven wrong and the DRays will be competitive. The same is true of Pittsburgh..."

Oh, I'm not too sure about that latter part.

This is a very interesting trade. One thing for the Twins - Young is a lot safer than Garza. Garza is more likely to have an injury that keeps him out an entire season. Overall it is a reshuffling of organizational talent that helps both ballclubs. Young for Garza is a push as far as I can tell, you'd have to be better at predicting the future than 99% to say otherwise.

Bartlett for Harris helps both teams fill holes. Punto is actually above replacement as a SS, he has a nifty glove. Bartlett has range but the Metrodome turf made Guzman look like a star fielder in the metrics. I also believe Bartlett has maxed out his ceiling but Harris probably has as well. The Twins will platoon Harris with Buscher at 3B, slide Punto or Casilla to SS and use the other at 2B while auditioning the group of utility guys they have at AAA for the bench (Macri, Tolbert, Watkins, Basak). I'd love to see the Twins follow this up with an Eckstein signing though. If any free agent is a Twins kind of player, it is Eckstein. I doubt he'd be truly expensive and the Twins have $$ to spend. They need a stopgap for 2-3 seasons because Plouffe looks like he'll be able to nail down a spot when the ballpark opens.

I think the Twins get the better end of Rincon for Pridie. Rincon has been declining and is not the reliable setup guy of 2005. Don't expect him to be a workhorse. His numbers in 2007 are better than his current talent because he was well leveraged by Gardenhire (one of the best in baseball at managing a bullpen). Getting any kind of talent for Rincon is a steal along the lines of Romero for Casilla and Buchanan for Bartlett.

I find it fascinating that Carl Crawford's career OPS+ in order, from his first cup of coffee go: 77, 81, 105, 111, 113, 117. I'm going to predict 120 for this year.

I would go with an odd number based on that pattern.

DL- I couldn't agree with you more about Rincon. I remember him being in much bigger rumors last year, and I couldn't wait for them to trade him because of his declining K rate and the fact than anyone who watched him pitch could see him tiring faster and faster.

But I'm not sure Punto will actually be an everyday player. They have caught a lot of hell for putting him in the lineup so much last year, and I have seen various news outlets paying lip service to Tolbert as a potential starter at 2B. I agree with the part about having some sort of stopgap, but I think Casilla at short, Tolbert at second, and Harris at third, or Mark Loretta at second, Casilla at short, Harris at third, or Lamb at third, Harris at second, Casilla at short. Any of these would probably produce comparably to Eckstein and would be much cheaper.

Also, I'm going to bring the Reds up again for Santana. I mentioned this on a thread last week, and now MLBTradeRumors.com has brought up, "How about a wild card like the Reds? They've got Homer Bailey and Edwin Encarnacion. And I imagine the Twins would find a way to work Jay Bruce in if they could get him." With Cuerto, Hamilton, and Stubbs in the system, there's potential to expand it.

And with Dusty as the manager, Harang Arroyo and Santana could all potentially pitch 250+ innings and then have their arms fall off at the end of the year.

Here's what I really like about the trade. By including Bartlett, that just means that Delmon Young ultimately comes from the Chuck Knoblauch tree. It's fun to see that thing keep growing and growing. The two draft picks the Twins will receive for Torii Hunter trace all the way back to Gary Ward (and include, among others, Jeff Reardon, John Smiley, Denny Neagle and Neal Heaton).

Fun stuff!

How about Delmon in CF?

He played 29 games there for Tampa in 2007 when BJ Upton was on the DL and did not embarrass himself. He's got the speed and the arm for it, and his bat is a lot more valuable there than it is in RF. Besides, the Twins already have a pretty decent RF in Michael Cuddyer.

He embarrassed himself.

Metrodome (and the new ballpark) have a big LF and Metrodome has the nasty lighting in LF. You need a pseudo-CF there.

Damn. Damn. Damn. Damn.
As a Red Sox fan I much preferred the Chuck "Hedley" LaMarr regime. This is a good trade for Tampa.

He embarrassed himself.

Yeah, -5 by one zone rating measure, -8 by the other, and he did that in only 242 innings. I don't know what Pinto, MGL, or Dewan have him at in center. That's Griffey-like.

Yeah, -5 by one zone rating measure, -8 by the other, and he did that in only 242 innings. I don't know what Pinto, MGL, or Dewan have him at in center. That's Griffey-like.

I watched a few of those innings. He looked like a WR that ran the wrong route as the pass flew by 15 feet over his head.

I think that tgis is a great trade for both teams, if only because oth teams are taking bold moves and addressing weaknesses. Especially seeing the Rays make this move, warms my cockles.

True of false: Delmon Young is the next Jose Guillen.

Being a semi-DRays fan I like this trade. I think I'll watch them more often this year.

Spefically, they're about 500 miles from contending.

There ought to be an AL Northeast division so Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Toronto get a shot at the postseason.

Let's be fair to Delmon's 2007 here - he was playing full time in the majors, on a bad team. He also had some very good months. His splits were interesting.

He had a month where he hit very well for average... .343 .377 .429, 0 HR in July
He was better at getting on base after the break.... .325 obp versus .308 obp.
He was also better away from home. Home: .276/.307/.406 versus Away: .300/.324/.409.

Does anyone know how to do an MLE backwards? Like, can we project his MLB numbers to see how he would have done if he was 21 and still toiling around in AA and AAA? I have the feeling this kid is still going to be very, very good.

Twin fans, was there any talk about a Garza for Carlos Gomez deal in Minnesota papers?

Jesus, I wish.

In a freakin' heartbeat.

I understand this trade from the viewpoint of the Rays, but I think Young clearly has the most talent of the players in this deal by a wide margin. So I like the deal from the Twins perspective. A lot.

I have to apologize to everyone. My earlier posts completely missed the point. The Devil Rays have almost no chance of being competitive in 2009, but not for the reasons I mentioned in my earlier posts. A well run organization, given the talent the Devil Rays currently have, might very well be competitive. The Devil Rays, however, are not a well run organization. They make huge mistakes, every single year, which kills any chance they might have to be decent.

Well run organizations, when they have a problem, find solutions that don't kill the team. They don't keep running guys out to the mound with no chance of success. They find pitchers that are likely to have an ERA below 6. They put players at defensive positions where they are likely to succeed. They pick up players to handle a position for a few weeks that won't kill the team. This is especially true of teams with limited resources - they find ways to fill holes.

Not the Devil Rays. They put players at positions where they are destined to fail. They wreck their defense, when there is no good reason for it. They don't bother to find a bullpen. They shuttle their young players around from position to position so they don't get settled. They throw batting practice pitchers to get killed every fifth day, and don't bother to try replacements. And on, and on. You might quibble with one or two of the characterizations, but in general, they fail because they are the Devil Rays, and they don't know what they are doing. They might make a good trade from time to time, but it doesn't matter because they make such huge mistakes they lose anyway.

In 2007, they had a fast, young team, that was reasonably healthy. They had one of the best starting pitchers in the AL, and a second starter that had a very good year. Their first baseman played out of his mind. And they lost 96 games. Because they are the Devil Rays. There was no excuse for them to have that kind of defense, given that roster. There was no excuse for them to lose 96 games last year, with that roster.

I'm not talking about stigmas, or curses, or magic. I'm talking about a team that doesn't know what its doing.

So in 2009, when some of their young players develop, and Garza has a good year, or whatever, it won't matter, becuase they are still going to give 30 starts to pitchers with a 6 ERA, and half their bullpen will be awful, and they will continue to shuttle players around, and when a player gets hurt, they'll move someone there who can't handle the position, which wrecks the defense. Its what they did last year, and the year before that. 2007 matters a lot, because it provides it shows you how they operate when the inevitable goes wrong.

Its no use analyzing their roster, because until they learn how to run a baseball team, they aren't going to win anything.

This is a very interesting trade. The Twins come out way ahead on the upside front. Delmon has a long way to go, but everyone agrees he still has Hall of Fame upside. I think for '08, the Rays come out well ahead. Normally, if you told me that Tampa Bay was trading away upside for a little certainty, I'd say it was stupid to misread their own situation that badly. But face it, they have to deal from their outfield depth to address other holes eventually, so if the trade they want is there now, you can't fault them for it. They're still not on the verge of the playoffs even under a best-reasonable-case scenario, but they could be in a year or two. And this is just another indication that the Twins are looking to do a quick reload in '08 and come back in '09 with a new crop of talent. If any Twins fans are still holding out hope that Johan and Nathan will be around through '08, this is another strike against that.

Its no use analyzing their roster, because until they learn how to run a baseball team, they aren't going to win anything.

What is your point? You can only use the players you have, and their players have always sucked. I don't know why you hate the Devil Rays so much, but this is the most talent they have ever had. They certainly have a chance to improve.

A little late to the party, but I don't think this has been addressed.

He is also the first rookie to lead the league in Outs.

Untrue. Ken Hubbs led the NL in 1962. There may have been others, or maybe not, but I thought of him immediately.

The Rays had a decent offense last year and at least some talented pitchers. Their greatest weaknesses:

(1) Defense. Absolutely horrid team defense, especially up the middle.
(2) Bullpen. Finished with 34 losses, second only to the Orioles in the AL.

I don't know if this trade truly answers both problems, but it is a step in the right direction. Bartlett is perhaps two wins better than Harris defensively?

I bet this trade doesn't even happen.

Its no use analyzing their roster, because until they learn how to run a baseball team, they aren't going to win anything.

Failing to learn how to run a baseball team hasn't stopped Kenny Williams from winning a World Championship.

The Twins come out way ahead on the upside front. Delmon has a long way to go, but everyone agrees he still has Hall of Fame upside.

We do? I don't. I think he has all-star upside. I think he'd be farther along in his age 21 season if he HOF upside.

Who is the best player in the trade? Delmon.
Who's getting him? Minnesota.
Ergo, who wins? Minnesota.

I understand why Tampa's making this deal - it addresses their three biggest needs (infield defense, starting pitching depth, and bullpen help). I have a great deal of respect for their current management team. But I think they're pulling the trigger on Delmon too soon.

-- MWE

You can only use the players you have, and their players have always sucked.

The 2007 Devil Rays had decent front line talent. The reason their half their players sucked is that they don't know what they are doing.

don't know why you hate the Devil Rays so much, but this is the most talent they have ever had. They certainly have a chance to improve.

I don't hate the Devil Rays - I just don't think they are going to be very good, for the reasons I explained. I hate the Yankees. They had talent last year, and it got them 96 losses.

(1) Defense. Absolutely horrid team defense, especially up the middle.

There was no reason for their defense to be this bad, not with the roster they had. It wasn't just the shortstop. It was their mistakes that led it to be this bad.

(2) Bullpen. Finished with 34 losses, second only to the Orioles in the AL.

I agree - but I think its because they have a front office that doesn't know how to put together a halfway decent bullpen, and a general attitude of the front office that they just let problems continue rather than trying to address them. I expect them to continue to have a bad bullpen.

I think this is going to be a good trade for the Twins. TINSTAAP.

I bet this trade doesn't even happen.

I was just thing that.....

I am giving up on baseball/the internet at this point anyway. Eric Clapton's Crossroads Guitar Festival is on Great Performances on PBS.

Obviously a cool trade to generate all these comments for Twins-DRays. Some thoughts on points made:

are the DRays dealing from strength? Crawford's excellent. I suspect he's at his peak but that's fine and no reason to expect decline. Most importantly, he's got a more than affordable contract through 2010 (including options). #107 (bless you! :-) hit on my feelings about Upton -- the K-rate has to come down. Baldelli -- he's entering his age 26 season, has one good half-season to his name, and has had tons of injuries. Gomes -- simply not a good hitter and it's past time people claimed that he is. Dukes -- I'm surprised to see it will be his age 24 season already. Will the Rays overlook his personal problems and given him a spot? Will he perform if they do? As to any prospects, I've got no idea.

That's solid but it's not like Young was an easily replaceable spare part. If Upton blossoms, then they're well set; otherwise, it will be a team in need of the sort of OF Young is supposed to become.

More on Gomes OPS+s of 95 and 105 the last two years. 1 K per 3 AB. Presumably poor defense in a corner. BTF's most over-rated player? :-) OK, not including various prospects and Hee Seop Choi. :-)

The DRays are young OK, obviously they're not old. But several key players (Crawford, Pena, Iwamura, Bartlett, Baldelli, Gomes, even Ruggiano) are already in their prime. Upton's young enough to improve yet there's almost no way he'll duplicate those numbers. Longoria and Dukes are the real wild cards here. I just don't see that much potential for improvement on the offensive side. Admittedly, I may be under-rating Crawford's growth potential as he strikes me as "steady" -- he's been pretty much the same hitter for 4 straight years -- rather than a guy who's about to add 50-100 points of ISO.

The starting pitching is young -- but that's not necessarily what you want. We all know the injury history of young pitchers with high innings though they have been reasonably cautious with Kazmir. Alas, Kazmir will start getting expensive soon -- he's arb-eligible this year isn't he?

So put me down with whichever poster that was on the previous page who was saying he'll believe the Rays can contend when he sees it. I'd like to be wrong, but their upside the next couple years looks more like the 2007 Blue Jays.

Oh yeah, the trade Nothing wrong with this trade for the Rays. Young's no sure bet and Bartlett is a nice player -- I wouldn't be that surprised if he ended up being the most valuable player in this deal for either team. And the Twins did get a player with a lot of upside so good for them.

Santana I'm torn. On the one hand, this may make it more likely he's dealt. A lot of the rumours we've heard for Santana revolve around the Twins receiving pitching in return, not top position players. So it may mean the Twins decided to deal Garza for position upgrades and will trade Santana for (mostly) young pitching. Alternatively, having picked up a "corner bat" and a "3B", they've filled two of their major holes and no longer "need" to deal Santana.

Anyway, an unfortunate consequence would seem to be that, if he's traded, the most sensible trading partners now appear to be the Yanks (pitching plus Melky) and the Red Sox (Ellsbury/Buchholz) as those would fill the CF hole. Certainly, LaRoche & Kemp as centerpieces would seem a non-starter now. The Angels don't seem to have a CF to deal (well, they have one to deal, but he's not young and cost-controlled) and aren't offering the quality of young pitching the Twins would seem to be able to get elsewhere so they'll have to at least include Kendrick.

My guess is Santana stays where he is, at least until the AS break.

Just trying to fix the formatting.</i>

hmmmm

... Now?

I understand why Tampa's making this deal - it addresses their three biggest needs (infield defense, starting pitching depth, and bullpen help). I have a great deal of respect for their current management team. But I think they're pulling the trigger on Delmon too soon.

That's my first impression as well.

Delmon has a long way to go, but everyone agrees he still has Hall of Fame upside.

HOF? I'd say a scant few people think that at this point. He would have to learn CF, hit for high avg make a "clutch" playoff catch and get beaned in the face and die Young.

(trying to fix a problem that had already been fixed)

HOF? I'd say a scant few people think that at this point. He would have to learn CF, hit for high avg make a "clutch" playoff catch and get beaned in the face and die Young.
For some reason I broke into laughter reading that.

I like the deal on Tampa's side if it goes down as presented in the article. I do not understand why Delmon Young is hyped so much. He's talented, for sure, but his plate discipline is terrible and he's had attitude issues. And his routes in the outfield are Mannyesque at times. I think the Rays traded him at the right moment. Garza, as a young pitcher, is risky true, but the Rays have to come up with pitching and it isn't going to come via free agency. They have Price and others in the system, but I think its a good idea on their part to add Garza to the mix in the hopes that one or two of their young pitchers pan out to go with Kazmir and Shields. Shortstop was a gaping wound for the Rays last year, Bartlett will do nicely. As for Rincon, he's probably toast. Which means he would likely be the Rays second best bullpen arm. On the Twins side, at least they recognize what a problem offense has been. If not for Guzrivpunto the Magnificent maybe they would have won a world series in the past few years.

I don't know if there was some fire to go with the smoke about a Crawford/Lincicum deal, but if there was, I think this is a much better option. They fill shortstop, and pick up a slightly less risky young pitcher (if not as talented). They also keep Crawford, one of the best young players in baseball who is signed to a ridiculously favorable contract.

I dunno. Emeigh and Gaelen like the deal for the Twins. That's quite the dynamic duo.

...

What an awesome deal for Minnesota!!!

his plate discipline is terrible

No, it is not. He doesn't draw a lot of walks, but he doesn't swing at a lot of bad pitches, either, and he connects solidly with many of the ones at which he does swing.

-- MWE

I do not understand why Delmon Young is hyped so much. He's talented, for sure, but his plate discipline is terrible and he's had attitude issues.

Its not just that he's talented. Its that he has performed, at a very young age, at a Major league level. There's a very good reason to get excited about a player who can play every day in the Majors at age 21, hit about .290, with relatively high numbers of doubles. I don't think he was a real good baseball player last year, and he may not be next year, but there is a real chance that he could hit .320 with 30 home runs on a regular basis, while ending up with 3000+ hits and 500+ homeruns. Its not every young player you can say that about. Its also not unheard of for a player to not draw a lot of walks in his rookie year, but increase those totals as he gets older.

I like the trade for both teams..for the Twins losing Rincon is not a huge deal as they have plenty of arms to take his spot. It also frees up a couple million to put towards either a 2B,3B, or CF as a free agent. Unless they get a big return for Johan before the season I'd let the season play out until the trade deadline and see where they stand then. The return probably won't be a whole lot less then since the deadline makes some teams do strange things. Rumors are the Twins could use the Rincon, Silva and Torii money to go after Rowand which would be a good sign in my opinion. So the Twins enter the season with Johan, Baker, Bonser, Slowey, Liriano and maybe a cheap FA guy or 2 (Clement, Colon, Wolf) something like that although I'm not sure what these guys will command in salary.

For a guy with his power, I just find it odd that Young doesn't walk more. He walked 26 times this year. He walked 15 times in 370 PA's at Durham last year, and once in 131 plate appearances in Tampa. He walked 4 times in 234 PA's at Durham in 2005, 25 times in 370 PA's in double A that year. He doesn't strike out a ton, but still, mixed in with the suspension and other factors, I do not think it is by any means certain that he turns into a star player. I realize walks are not the be all and end all, and he IS still exceptionally young, and he hasn't had a lot of pro experience, but still... I can understand why the Rays chose to trade him above Upton and Crawford. I'd much rather have either of those guys. Crawford and Upton do a number of things well, Young has to hit. I don't doubt that he'll be a good player, but I do think he has some serious warts.

That said, I concede to Emeigh, "terrible" was certainly an overstatement.

For a guy with his power, I just find it odd that Young doesn't walk more.

I don't think Young has much power at all. His power will not likely be more than avg for a corner OF in his career.

According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Delmon Young-to-Minnesota is done, though it may no longer be a six-player trade.

Juan Rincon may be out of the trade because of his elbow, which might result in the Twins getting a different package. Either way, it seems likely that the Rays will still get Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.

But I think they're pulling the trigger on Delmon too soon.

Seems like a Branch Rickey trade, which is kinda weird for a 22-year old.

I just don't see that much potential for improvement on the offensive side.

To re-iterate, because I've found a new stat to make the point, the Rays really don't need to improve much, if at all, on the offensive side.

In 2007, the Red Sox were 3rd in the AL in runs scored and OPS+. According to THT, they earned 125.1 offensive Win Shares. The Rays earned 125.9 offensive Win Shares.

Young's K/BB is scary and has been at a few levels now. Garza's is very nice and has been at a few levels. Although it's risky to bet on pitchers, I think the Rays made out better in this deal. I think they dealt from a strength whereas Minnesota dealt from an area where they're merely deep enough. I like them getting Bartlett to because that sures up another weakness. If they can sign a good starter and a good reliever, they might be something next year.

Who is the best player in the trade? Delmon.

Long term, yes, but last year Bartlett was the much better player. If I'm the Devil Rays I'm only concerned with what Young does in the next 5 years.

I don't like this trade for Rays at all, really. I feel like they are giving up too much future for present, when there present leaves something to be desired.

I feel they have internal options who can fill the roles Garza and Bartlett will play, while they have no assets that give them the upside they are trading in Delmon.

While, the trade can certainly work out OK and isn't a disaster, I don't think it shows a lot of patience...

Then again the other side is they only have Kazmir and Crawford for so long, so they need to establish some revenues and get a fanbase excited as well as gain a better understanding of what a better team can do in terms of business in that area. So it makes sense.

Sorry, I've seen the same thing twice in this thread. The phrase is "shore up," though I'm not really sure why.

Fun with similarity scores!
age 21, Delmon Young's 10 most similar:

1. Tris Speaker (970) *
2. Rocco Baldelli (966)
3. Roberto Clemente (963) *
4. Joe Kelley (959) *
5. Mike Tiernan (957)
6. Whitey Lockman (955)
7. Greg Luzinski (951)
8. Terry Puhl (949)
9. Jimmy Sebring (949)
10. Buttercup Dickerson (948)

Three Hall of Famers, boys--
& any list with Luzinsky AND Buttercup Dickerson's all right by me....

We do? I don't. I think he has all-star upside. I think he'd be farther along in his age 21 season if he HOF upside.

His age-21 season was as good, offensively, as Clemente's 22, 23 or 24. (Though not Clemente's age-21.)

And yes, I know about Clemente's defense.

It was also roughly comparable (by OPS+) to Yount, Yaz, and Molitor in their Age-21 years.

Sorry, I've seen the same thing twice in this thread. The phrase is "shore up," though I'm not really sure why.

At least no one is calling Young a "shoe-in" for the Hall...

Rincon is out, Eduardo Morlan is in.

Deal just got better for the Rays, worse for the Twins.

His age-21 season was as good, offensively, as Clemente's 22, 23 or 24. (Though not Clemente's age-21.)

You do realize that Clemente was a pretty lousy hitter at those ages. He didn't become CLEMENTE! until age 26. Many guys are comparable to a young Clemente. Few of them become HOFers.

Then again the other side is they only have Kazmir and Crawford for so long, so they need to establish some revenues and get a fanbase excited as well as gain a better understanding of what a better team can do in terms of business in that area.

I think this is a great point. There seems to be an assumption by most people here that the Rays "can't afford" to keep their young talent. And certainly, their attendance has been abysmal since their second season. But this is also a team that's never won more than 70 games and finished out of last place only one time in its 10-year history. I do wonder how much of their attendance/revenue woes are just the result of being a bad team as opposed to Tampa being a bad market. Maybe if they can have a couple of good seasons before Crawford and Kazmir hit free agency, they might find that they can actually afford to keep their stars as they get more expensive.

You do realize that Clemente was a pretty lousy hitter at those ages

Something similar can be said for Molitor in his age-21 season, and probably Yaz too.

I'm sure there are HOFers whose career began slowly, I should have rephrased what I said. But I just don't see Young's tools as remarkable enough to project HOF potential. I see him as an above average, very good outfielder for a good portion of his career. Maybe a 2-3 time all-star. But HOF is really a stretch, IMO.

We do? I don't. I think he has all-star upside. I think he'd be farther along in his age 21 season if he HOF upside.

I don't believe anyone thinks he's actually on a Hall of Fame track right now. But scouts still believe that he's going to continue hitting for average as his power develops, and while they may have downgraded his power potential from the days he was talked about as the prospect most likely to be a perennial 50 HR hitter, it's still considered enormous. If he makes good, he's going to make a lot of All Star teams and quite likely have a Hall of Fame-quality run in him.

Its also not unheard of for a player to not draw a lot of walks in his rookie year, but increase those totals as he gets older.

It's not unsual for a a selective player (as evidenced by minor league stats) to not walk in his first MLB season- and then draw walks after that- Delmon has never walked at a decent clip-

No, it is not. He doesn't draw a lot of walks, but he doesn't swing at a lot of bad pitches, either, and he connects solidly with many of the ones at which he does swing

and yet he K'd 120 times and his K/bb is and has been bad.

The more I look at his minor league and MLB stats the more I'm beginning to think he's been seriously overrated. I'm leaning towards the likelihood that he won't quite be as good a hitter as his brother (will have more defensive value though)

I think The Rays win because I think Garza will have more value over the next 3-5 years- and that's the time frame that most trades nowadays are going to be judged anyway- especially considering the teams involved.

Whoever mentioned Jose Guillen was dead on- look at Guillen's #s as teenager, Avg- power- K/BB look at his age 21 season in the majors

You do realize that Clemente was a pretty lousy hitter at those ages. He didn't become CLEMENTE! until age 26. Many guys are comparable to a young Clemente. Few of them become HOFers.

Something similar can be said for Molitor in his age-21 season, and probably Yaz too.

Umm, yeah, I know that an OPS+ in the 90s isn't an "A" grade. :)

Point is, a blanket statement that he doesn't have Hall of Fame talent *because he wasn't better at 21* is demonstrably false, and not just via a single example. I'm not saying he does have that upside, I just don't see any reason to extrapolate that he doesn't based on what he did at 21.

Rincon is out, Eduardo Morlan is in.

Deal just got better for the Rays, worse for the Twins.

One of the Twins beat reporters says that the revised deal is official.....Morlan, Bartlett and Garza for Young, Pridie and Harris.

If Kenny Williams were the TB GM, they would make the playoffs this year. He's bad at a number of things, but finding average players to fill OPS+ sinks for cheap is something he's extremely good at.

Three Hall of Famers, boys

And Terry Puhl???

It was also roughly comparable (by OPS+) to Yount, Yaz, and Molitor in their Age-21 years.

And Alfredo Griffin, Mike Caruso, and Joe Cassidy .

And not as good as Sonny Jackson, Geene Freese, or Elmer Valo.

And not nearly as good as Bob Collucio, Dick Kokos, or Joe Vosmik.

But HOF is really a stretch, IMO.

HOF is a stretch for any 21 year old that doesn't start off like Albert Pujols or Ted Williams. Many Hall of Famers start out like Delmon Young, and the ones who don't aren't even good enough to play in the majors at age 21.

I don't think anyone is saying that a HOF career is a lock, but rather you can't rule out the possibility yet.

Point is, a blanket statement that he doesn't have Hall of Fame talent *because he wasn't better at 21* is demonstrably false, and not just via a single example.

I don't think anyone intends a blank statement expressing a universal truth. This is a probability issue, and what Young's done since about mid-2005 isn't something that suggests he's got a high likelihood of being a HoFer.

The Rays, if they have any intention of contending in the near future (which they probably do, at least temporarily, if for nothing else to help procure a new park), have to fix the defense and the starting pitching. I think they stand a better chance of contending into the future with Bartlett, Garza, +, than they do with Young, +. I'm admittedly biased towards Upton and Crawford, but the one glaring area of strength the Rays could afford to deal from was the outfield, and if you are going to deal from among Upton, Crawford, and Young, Young would be the guy I would choose to deal. Baldelli and Dukes should be able to hold down the fort alright between the two of them.

I can see an argument that the Rays should have gotten more for Young, but you have to find a dance partner. Garza and Bartlett are a nice fit. They help fix what needs to be fixed. If Garza pitches 150 innings with a 90 ERA+ next year and Bartlett fields his position, thats a massive upgrade.

Deal not as good for Twins with Morlan included over Rincon..but not sure holding up the deal to get Delmon Young. Pretty even trade overall maybe slight edge to Rays with Morlan in the deal over Rincon. Morlan is a good relief pitcher prospect but he's that a relief pitcher prospect. Just wondering what the next step for the Twins is, dealing Johan and Nathan or sticking with them and filling the gaps they still have, should be interesting next few weeks.

I don't think anyone is saying that a HOF career is a lock, but rather you can't rule out the possibility yet.

How about this? I'm ruling it out. If I end up being wrong on that I'll take the L.

HOF? I'd say a scant few people think that at this point. He would have to learn CF, hit for high avg make a "clutch" playoff catch and get beaned in the face and die Young.

Worth repeating myself. HOF! What?

But I just don't see Young's tools as remarkable enough to project HOF potential. I see him as an above average, very good outfielder for a good portion of his career. Maybe a 2-3 time all-star. But HOF is really a stretch, IMO.

Isn't it a stretch to say any 21 year old will make the Hall of Fame is a stretch? I'll say this, I think Del Young has remarkable tools, among the best in the league. At worst I think he will be a multitime allstar if he is healthy. I woulnd't be remotly suprised if he was among the best players in the American League a number of times during his career.

Isn't it a stretch to say any 21 year old will make the Hall of Fame is a stretch?

Someone said something to the effect that "We all believe he has HOF potential." I disagreed. I stand by that. We'll have to agree to disagree on the tools. He looks like he could be a good player, but I don't see anything remarkable about his tools when I watch him. I would say they're above average.

Point is, a blanket statement that he doesn't have Hall of Fame talent *because he wasn't better at 21* is demonstrably false, and not just via a single example. I'm not saying he does have that upside, I just don't see any reason to extrapolate that he doesn't based on what he did at 21.

There are 102 players who have had 600 or more PA at age 21 or before. Among them, Young ranks in a tie for 80th in OPS+ with Yaz. HOFers below him are 19 and 20 year old Yount, and 21 year old Rabbit Maranville. HOFers within 10 points ahead of him are 21 year old Yount and Bill Mazeroski. HOFers 10-20 points ahead of him are Travis Jackson and Lloyd Waner, and (should he get in like he should), 2 seasons of Robbie Alomar.

Many Hall of Famers start out like Delmon Young, and the ones who don't aren't even good enough to play in the majors at age 21.

Not many, and of those, most are middle infielders or catchers.

If Delmon Young was 24, he wouldn't be that impressive. Putting up the minor league numbers he did at ages 21 and 22 and 23, followed by an age 24 season in the majors where you hit. 290 with 38 doubles and 13 homeruns would not be very impressive.

But he's not. He's 21. He was ripping up the minor leagues at age 18. I think a lot of people are underappreciating how hard that is to do, and how often people who can handle MLB pitching at age 21 end up being stars at age 27.

Garza, IMO, is the overrated one. His numbers to date are good, but not really distinguishable from a couple of dozen other pitchers, both at the minor and major league levels. I know some scouts are drooling, but they drool over lots of pitchers. For every pitcher that starts out like Garza, a pretty large number will either get hurt or be ineffective. That's why you stock up on pitching prospects - you just don't know who will be the effective, durable ones. My guess is that Young will be substantially better than Garza within three to four years.

i bet there are a lot of hofers on that list simply because the only guys who get 600 pas at age 21 are very well regarded (even if they haven't shown it in terms of performance, like yount).

how often people who can handle MLB pitching at age 21 end up being stars at age 27.

But the Twins aren't acquiring 27-year-old Delmon Young. He'll be a free agent at age 26. If he follows, say, the Sammy Sosa career arc (Sosa put up an OPS+ of 92 in 579 PA at age 21), he won't be putting up his Hall-of-Fame case until he's in his 3rd year of his first free-agent contract.