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Sunday, February 07, 2010

TYU: Robinson Cano and false perceptions of speed

Bad running? Mike de la Hoziery looks on.

While Keith Law is discussing Orlando Hudson here – the “Slow-Dawg” – he might as well be referring to Robinson Cano. Though Cano is not viwed as a “low-power middle infielder,” he is often mistakenly perceived as having “good speed,” although, as Law says, such a characterization just does not “bear out in reality.” I remember Joe Buck referencing Cano in this way throughout the World Series and wondered how, exactly, Buck came to that conclusion given Cano’s poor stolen base numbers – 17 steals in 38 attempts – and decidedly low speed score (3.6). To be fair to Buck, even I admit that I was surprised at how sluggish Cano was on the bases when he first arrived on the scene in 2005.

Perhaps stereotypes regarding infielders as well as stereotypes pertaining to appearance are to blame. While Cano is a powerful middle infielder, he is, still, a middle infielder. Thus, we assume that he is faster, for whatever reason, because middle infielders just are that way inherently. Plus, Cano is slim and “looks” athletic, so perhaps that visual is what makes many people think he is faster than he really is (conversely, when we look at Prince Fielder, we do not consider him to be fast, so, assuming the opposite – thin equals fast – is often the case). In addition, though I am hesitant to say this in fear of a backlash, there are longstanding ethnic and racial stereotypes which distinguish minorities as “fast runners,” so I wonder if this is also implicitly at play with guys like Robinson Cano and Orlando Hudson. This is a difficult issue to discuss, but, as many academics have noted, it is a characterization that exists.

It is a mixture of these things – sometimes one or the other, sometimes all three – that likely influence our perceptions of speed in baseball. Orlando Hudson and Robinson Cano are just two examples of players that are “surprisingly slow” because of these preconceived thoughts. It is an interesting issue to consider the next time we watch a game.

Repoz Posted: February 07, 2010 at 10:25 PM | 32 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Cyril Morong Posted: February 07, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3455797)
I have my own pet theory on speed measures. It is the triple-to-double ratio. If you can turn a well-hit ball to the OF into a triple instead of just a double, you are fast (or at least know how to run the bases and know something about the OFers). Slow guys stop at 2nd or get thrown out at 3rd (in which case they are credited with a double). I doubt it is a perfect correlation. Cano has a career ratio of .085. In that same time, the AL average, excluding pithcers, is .095. So he is below average. The position average is .109. Simply looking at triples might miss this since a very fast runner might have a low triple total just because they don't hit the ball hard enough or often enough. Otis Nixon only hit 27 triples in his career while the league average was 32. But his triple-to-double ratio was .19 while the league average was .125. Not sure if there is anyway to turn this stat into anything operational, but it is fun to look at.

Cano also seems to ground into alot of DPs for a lefty. That could always be a function of having alot of opportunities. But his RBI/GDP ratio is 4.19 while the league average is 5.57. And that includes right-handed batters, too. He should be driving in alot of runs with a batting AVG above the league average (.306 vs. .270). His ISO or isolated power is also high compared to the league, .173 vs. .157. So he should have alot of RBIs to offset his GDPs. Now it is possible that he has had bad luck and had a disproportionate number of his times at-bat with a runner on first only and less than two outs, which are not good RBI situations. But that seems unlikely.
   2. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 12:17 AM (#3455816)
I don't know that I'd call Cano "slim". He's got big, broad shoulders and kinda little chicken ankles, which is not really a body type I associate with speed. I suspect the issue is mostly that he's a high-average 2B who isn't white. People assume that kind of player is always fast.
   3. Eugene Freedman Posted: February 08, 2010 at 12:19 AM (#3455819)
To quote Leo Getz, played by Joe Pesci, in Lethal Weapon II paraphrasing someone at the South African Consulate, "But, but, but, you're blick."
   4. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: February 08, 2010 at 12:56 AM (#3455821)
Cyril,

3B/(2B+3B)

is a standard stat formulation in the projections I used to do. You are correct in that it's probably the best way to use triples as an indicator of speed.

However lefties do have a bit of an advantage in this stat so that should be taken into account (another debit in Cano's column).
   5. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 12:58 AM (#3455823)
I think of Cano as the Anti-Jeter, in that he is quick enough reactions to be a pretty good 2B, but is not that fast when sprinting.
   6. Cyril Morong Posted: February 08, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3455824)
Right, good point about him being a lefty. Last year, righties had a 3B/2B = .134. Righties had .089. So yes, another debit! I think someone mentioned 3B/(2B+3B) to me before (might have been you). Sounds like a better way to do it. Like batting average, the percent of times successful divided by the opportunities.
   7. willcarrollsux Posted: February 08, 2010 at 01:22 AM (#3455828)
I would guess that the short right field porch in his home ballpark(s) would cut down on triples, relative to doubles. I don't know, though.
   8. JoeHova Posted: February 08, 2010 at 02:16 AM (#3455835)
JJ Hardy is another extremely slow middle infielder. It's kind of funny that the Twins have both Hudson and Hardy now. On the other hand, it's not like the Twins stole a ton of bases last year.
   9. bobm Posted: February 08, 2010 at 02:24 AM (#3455837)
The use of the 3B/(2B+3B) ratio reminded me of the "96 Families of Hitters" article in Bill James Gold Mine 2009. He grouped hitters' careers into families by the ratio of 2B:3B:HR, where each is rounded to a single-digit and the remainder assigned to the lesser hit, and OPS (letter code for various levels).

If I've calculated correctly, Cano is a 703C, a family which includes second basemen such as Craig Biggio and Jose Vidro. It also includes corner infielders such as Olerud, Mattingly, Youkilis, and Ryan Zimmerman. These players also seem to have in common low speed and good fielding reputations.
   10. Cyril Morong Posted: February 08, 2010 at 02:40 AM (#3455840)
Cano's ratio in career road games is .072
   11. RollingWave Posted: February 08, 2010 at 03:54 AM (#3455856)
Cano was god awful with RISP last year. an unfathomable 207/.242/.332 . for some unknown reason he just seem to struggle badly in that situation in his career so far, despite no apparent change of batted ball data or SO/BB .

It was hilarious last year how if Cano comes up with no one one someone good is almost guarenteed to happen (no on . 376/.407/.609 , men on first 336/.365/.555 , but if guys are on 2nd or 3rd? game over.)

Watching Cano run, he looks like he's just fast jogging almost all the time. he also seem to get terrible read on pitchers and have poor jumps. which adds to his horrific SB/CS totals.
   12. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: February 08, 2010 at 03:56 AM (#3455858)
Cano also has kind of a fat ass.
   13. Cyril Morong Posted: February 08, 2010 at 04:12 AM (#3455860)
It wasn't just last year, but Cano has a .256 AVG with RISP for his whole career while his bases empty AVG is .331. His SLG with runners on is .425 while with bases empty it is .528. I guess this explains his bad RBI to GDP ratio. He is not doing well when there are RBI opportunities.
   14. Tripon Posted: February 08, 2010 at 04:25 AM (#3455861)
Shouldn't that mean that Cano should bat leadoff for the Yanks then? :)
   15. MM1f Posted: February 08, 2010 at 04:39 AM (#3455864)
I don't know that I'd call Cano "slim". He's got big, broad shoulders and kinda little chicken ankles, which is not really a body type I associate with speed. I suspect the issue is mostly that he's a high-average 2B who isn't white. People assume that kind of player is always fast.


Thank you.
I read that line and just went, huh?

First I've ever seen anyone call Cano slim. Then again, I've never heard anyone call him speedy either. The knock on him in the minors was that he had a bad body, lacked range and was already a lil chubby and might get even chubbier, lose range and not be able to play 2b, though his strong arm would have let him play 3b.
Hes a stocky middle infielder. As someone else mentioned, Jose Vidro (when he was an Expo) is a good top-of-the-head comp. Stocky 2b-men with high averages and gap power.
   16. RollingWave Posted: February 08, 2010 at 06:57 AM (#3455877)
Yeah, the Vidro comp seems most realistic at this point, though Robbies' generally shown better power. and on the one hand, Vidro gives you hope that maybe Robbie can learn to walk a little going foward. and on the other, it gives you worry if he'd fall off a cliff in a few more year.
   17. jyjjy Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:39 AM (#3455891)
Cano's GDP numbers aren't helped any by batting behind high OBP/slow as molasses Posada.
   18. NJ is feeling better Posted: February 08, 2010 at 04:59 PM (#3456037)
Jose Vidro does not strike me as a good physical comp for Robinson Cano.

EDIT: The Cano is fat/overweight thing has always bothered me. If Cano is a stocky IF what does the average IF look like?
   19. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 05:24 PM (#3456057)
If Cano is a stocky IF what does the average IF look like?


This, maybe?

EDIT: More seriously, Cano is not really chubby, but he is sort of broad compared to a lot of old-school middle IF. That said, he does fall in line with a tradition of bigger-bodied, power-hitting 2B, like Chase Utley, Jeff Kent, and maybe Ryne Sandberg. Then again, I haven't heard anybody call Cano "overweight" in years. "Lazy", yes, but "overweight" -- which, by the way, strikes me as coded language for "black/Hispanic but not fast" as much as "speedy" is coded language for "black middle infielder" -- not in a while.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3456066)
And sometimes fast guys are just poor baserunners. I remember that always being the knock on Chet Lemon. He was one fo the fastest guys in the league going first to third, but never was a big basestealer. Being fast is an important element in stealing bases, but not the only element.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: February 08, 2010 at 06:12 PM (#3456092)
Cano also has kind of a fat ass.


Seriously, years ago I tuned in and mistook him for Ruben Sierra.

Soon after he made 3 ghastly errors in one game and I was beginning to believe that he WAS in fact Ruben Sierra.
   22. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3456102)
I have my own pet theory on speed measures. It is the triple-to-double ratio. If you can turn a well-hit ball to the OF into a triple instead of just a double, you are fast (or at least know how to run the bases and know something about the OFers). Slow guys stop at 2nd or get thrown out at 3rd (in which case they are credited with a double). I doubt it is a perfect correlation.
The problem is, triples are <u>extremely</u> park dependent.
   23. aleskel Posted: February 08, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3456107)
And sometimes fast guys are just poor baserunners. I remember that always being the knock on Chet Lemon

That was the knock on Bernie Williams too - in the OF he was as fast as anyone, but he never had quick first step or, I dunno, daring to steal bases.
   24. Cyril Morong Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:37 PM (#3456319)
#22

David

Yes, you're right. But his road ratio is .072. That is below his overall rate.

Cy
   25. JPWF13 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:24 PM (#3456366)
Cano was god awful with RISP last year. an unfathomable 207/.242/.332 . for some unknown reason he just seem to struggle badly in that situation in his career so far, despite no apparent change of batted ball data or SO/BB .


Prior to 2008 Frenchy was the reverse

he was so dramatically better (150+ points in OPS), every year with RISP that it was starting to look like a skill, then in 2008 his OPS with RISP 112 points worse than without RISP, and in 2009 it was 172 points worse. For his career he's now 36 points better with RISP than not...

For his career to date Cano has been dramatically worse with RISP than all other situations, I wouldn't assume that will continue. He's got over 700 PAs with RISP, so maybe it's a real "skill" (anti-skill?), but I wouldn't be at all surprised if his split stats even out or even reverse next year- happens all the time to all types of players, the guy who hits .350 with RISP one year seems just as likely to hit .225 the next
   26. Anthony Giacalone Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:33 PM (#3456374)
Why is TYU so reticent to point out that many people tend to use ethnic and racial stereotypes when categorizing players? It's not like this is breaking news. I mean, have you ever heard anyone say that a white player reminds them of a black player (Baseball America, with their prospect comparisons, is particularly bad at this)? Generally, you see things like David Wright is similar to a Matt Williams. You never see things like "Wright reminds me of Carmelo Martinez," even though there swings are two of the more similar that I can remember.

And why is it so strange that someone like O-Dawg isn't fast? Can't thin, shortish people are be slow?
   27. JPWF13 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:45 PM (#3456384)
(Baseball America, with their prospect comparisons, is particularly bad at this)? Generally, you see things like David Wright is similar to a Matt Williams.


I never saw Wright get compared to Williams, what I generally saw were: comparisons of Wright to Rolen, and then someone objecting to that comparison because Wright is physically so dissimilar to Rolen...

My favorite rookie comparisons were made by Joe Torre- he compared Alphonso Soriano to Hank Aaron and Robbie Cano to Rod Carew, the reaction the MSM, statheads, and scouting communities was a universal WTF... but in hindsight he did see SOMETHING
   28. JoeHova Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3456394)
And why is it so strange that someone like O-Dawg isn't fast? Can't thin, shortish people are be slow?

I don't think it's a racial thing in this case. It's more that people expect defensive players whose responsibility it is to cover a lot of ground (SS, 2B, CF) to be fast.
   29. PreservedFish Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3456400)
he compared Alphonso Soriano to Hank Aaron


You heard this a lot from a variety of sources: specifically regarding the speed of his wrists.
   30. JPWF13 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:03 PM (#3456402)
I think of Cano as the Anti-Jeter, in that he is quick enough reactions to be a pretty good 2B, but is not that fast when sprinting.


The guy with the greatest dissonance between his "quickness" and his running speed that I can recall was Graig Nettles (who was a 2B in the minors), I can't recall anyone who reached his max lateral speed so quickly- but that was it, it was like he had one gear, he could get into 1st gear faster than anyone else, but there was no 2nd gear after that...
   31. Anthony Giacalone Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:19 PM (#3456409)
I never saw Wright get compared to Williams, what I generally saw were: comparisons of Wright to Rolen, and then someone objecting to that comparison because Wright is physically so dissimilar to Rolen...


Right. I didn't mean that Wright was compared to Williams, specifically, only to another white third baseman.

My favorite rookie comparisons were made by Joe Torre- he compared Alphonso Soriano to Hank Aaron and Robbie Cano to Rod Carew, the reaction the MSM, statheads, and scouting communities was a universal WTF... but in hindsight he did see SOMETHING


I forgot about these. And, while they are comparisons to players of similar ethnicity/race these comparisons actually make sense. Neither of these are great comparisons, although there are some similar features in their swings. Cano's swing looks an awful lot like someone else's (something in the way that he coils up in his stance and then unwinds into his swing), but I can't remember who right now. Does anyone currently look like Carew? I mean, obviously, Cecil Cooper was nearly a carbon copy but doesn't anyone recent use that wide open, spread stance and a wristy swing? You know's old swing I love to watch (since I don't remember him)? Tony Oliva. As a kid, I always confused him with Rico Carty (which was surely about confusing their names as a kid or something), but his swing looks remarkably like Tony Gwynn's to me.

I don't think it's a racial thing in this case. It's more that people expect defensive players whose responsibility it is to cover a lot of ground (SS, 2B, CF) to be fast.


Yeah. I meant this as a separate observation than the one I made about race and comparison. I think you are right too about it being about defensive position. Although there is this tendency by many of us (myself included when I look at historical players) to think, "Well, he has no power and he's kind of small, he must run well."
   32. RollingWave Posted: February 09, 2010 at 10:37 AM (#3456665)
Prior to 2008 Frenchy was the reverse

he was so dramatically better (150+ points in OPS), every year with RISP that it was starting to look like a skill, then in 2008 his OPS with RISP 112 points worse than without RISP, and in 2009 it was 172 points worse. For his career he's now 36 points better with RISP than not...

For his career to date Cano has been dramatically worse with RISP than all other situations, I wouldn't assume that will continue. He's got over 700 PAs with RISP, so maybe it's a real "skill" (anti-skill?), but I wouldn't be at all surprised if his split stats even out or even reverse next year- happens all the time to all types of players, the guy who hits .350 with RISP one year seems just as likely to hit .225 the next


I'm very aware of that RISP and even H/R L/R splits are often not a repetitive skill, but that doesn't change the amusing disparity of difference for Cano last year.


My favorite rookie comparisons were made by Joe Torre- he compared Alphonso Soriano to Hank Aaron and Robbie Cano to Rod Carew, the reaction the MSM, statheads, and scouting communities was a universal WTF... but in hindsight he did see SOMETHING
I think he's more specifically referring to a certain aspect of their ability than the whole package (Soriano's power and Cano's line drive skills) in that sense those aren't really far fetched comparasons.
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