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Friday, May 30, 2008

USA Today: Drop-off in home runs not so deep

Wait…what happened to the game-changing, wart removing, vein emulsifrying FEAR OF TESTING theory!

While the names have changed, the number of home runs being hit is virtually the same as a year ago, varying little from Mark McGwire’s record-setting season in 1998.

There have been 1.85 home runs per game this season, down 3% from the same time last year, when 1.91 homers a game were being hit, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. There are almost as many home runs and runs scored per game (9.00) this year as 2002 (1.95 homers and 9.09 runs) — two years before baseball began testing for steroids.

“That really surprises me because it seems like far less homers are being hit,” says Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon. “But then you’ve got guys like (Chicago White Sox outfielder) Carlos Quentin. He’s looks like a mini-Jose Canseco out there.”

...“What might be confusing people is that the home run rate normally goes up in warmer weather,” says Steve Hirdt, Elias executive vice president. “So people might be concluding that there’s a big drop, when there’s not. It’s no different than last year when we ended up at 2.04 (per game).”

Repoz Posted: May 30, 2008 at 11:50 AM | 11 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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1. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: May 30, 2008 at 12:05 PM (#2799468)

“But then you’ve got guys like (Chicago White Sox outfielder) Carlos Quentin. He’s looks like a mini-Jose Canseco out there.”

How does this effect Quentin's Hall of Fame chances?

2. Dizzypaco Posted: May 30, 2008 at 12:14 PM (#2799474)

I've seen similar things reported here and elsewhere, people dismissing that there's anything different this year. Its seems blatantly obvious to me that there has been a significant and substantial change - in the American League only. Run scoring and home runs are off by a lot, in the American League, although I don't have the foggiest idea why. I suppose its possible that hitting will increase as the weather changes, but there's certainly been a big change so far.

3. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: May 30, 2008 at 01:01 PM (#2799498)

I think one factor is that almost every single American League DH started off really cold.

Also, I think a lot of it has to do with Robinson Cano.

4. villageidiom Posted: May 30, 2008 at 01:39 PM (#2799539)

Its seems blatantly obvious to me that there has been a significant and substantial change - in the American League only. Run scoring and home runs are off by a lot, in the American League, although I don't have the foggiest idea why.

Through May 29
AL: 729 HR in 2007, 660 in 2008
Difference: 69 HR.

A-Rod: 19 HR in 2007, 7 in 2008
Difference: 12 HR.

More than 17% of the dropoff has been A-Rod.

I think the over/under on someone in the MSM blaming A-Rod for the league's HR drought is 4 days.

5. T.J. Posted: May 30, 2008 at 01:47 PM (#2799545)

“But then you’ve got guys like (Chicago White Sox outfielder) Carlos Quentin. He’s (sic) looks like a mini-Jose Canseco out there.”

So's your mom.

6. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: May 30, 2008 at 02:03 PM (#2799562)

Is Joe Maddon accusing Carlos Quentin of being a steroid user?

7. Sparkles Peterson Posted: May 30, 2008 at 02:19 PM (#2799583)

It's not too hard to figure out why the NL has turned things around from looking at the ages of starting position players. By some quick calculations, the average AL starter at any given position is like 3.5 years older than his NL counterpart. I'm not sure how much power someone is expected to lose around 29.5, but I suspect that's about the decrease the AL will have seen by the end of the season.

8. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: May 30, 2008 at 02:22 PM (#2799589)

It's not too hard to figure out why the NL has turned things around from looking at the ages of starting position players.

How has the NL "turned things around"? Why does "more offense" = better quality?

9. Sparkles Peterson Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:49 PM (#2799884)

When the "more offense" is largely the result of higher rates of extra-base hits, which appear to be controlled by the batter more than the pitcher, more offense = better quality.

10. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: May 30, 2008 at 06:01 PM (#2799912)

When the "more offense" is largely the result of higher rates of extra-base hits, which appear to be controlled by the batter more than the pitcher, more offense = better quality.

Or more offense = poor defense, or different ballparks.

Or the Colorado Rockies.

11. Walt Davis Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:22 PM (#2800329)

I'm not sure how much power someone is expected to lose around 29.5, but I suspect that's about the decrease the AL will have seen by the end of the season.

Well ... generally you trade average for power as you age ... but then a lot of guys fall off cliffs around age 30-32.

I got my first look at Quentin the other day (hey, I live in New Zealand, give me a break) and I swear I thought I was looking at Canseco (before knowing who I was looking at).

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Friday, May 30, 2008

USA Today: Drop-off in home runs not so deep

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