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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

USA Today: Hershey & Shandler: Is it possible to predict postseason MVPs?

I have zippo interest in this. You might. Ok...back to Pilooski’s sultry-as-a-clarkii bar re-edit of Elvis’ “Crawfish”.

We looked at the last 20 postseasons and included the LCS and World Series, for 60 award winners in all. It is important to note that postseason play accumulates small sample sizes. Some of the following numbers were amassed in as few as four or five games — less than a week’s worth of regular-season play.

Though this is the nature of a postseason series, one needs to exercise caution in drawing definitive conclusions about player value. Any player can get hot in a handful of games, and a well-timed streak can significantly raise exposure with little historical backbone.

Certainly, Eddie Perez’s 1999 National League Championship Series MVP and Pat Borders’ 1992 World Series MVP were weak indicators of past or future success. And make no mistake — almost all of the award winners had hot streaks.

Repoz Posted: October 15, 2008 at 12:46 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetrics

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   1. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 15, 2008 at 02:04 PM (#2982939)
I was just thinking this morning on how the length of the series can have a great effect on the MVP. If it goes 4, then a starting pitcher almost certainly can't win. If it goes 7, then of course one might.
   2. JPWF13 Posted: October 15, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2982975)
And make no mistake — almost all of the award winners had hot streaks.


really?
amazing!
I would never have guessed
   3. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: October 15, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2982985)
I couldn't have predicted the 2005 ALCS and World Series MVPs until they were named, even after watching every pitch.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: October 15, 2008 at 03:16 PM (#2982989)
Ummm...there's not even an attempt at prediction there. Really all it say is "after the series is over, it will usually be obvious who's going to win MVP."

Basically the conclusion is this: using just the current season's numbers, when "good" players get hot, they'll win the award; when "bad" players get hot, they'll win the award. Because of the nature of the series set-up, that hitters outnumber pitchers 8-4 (for all intents and purposes) and maybe something actually repeatable, you're more likely to have "surprises" among the hitters.
   5. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: October 15, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2982996)
This article was mighty odd in one respect, that it doesn't even address whether the MVP has to come from the team that wins the series. I was wondering if that was always the case, since it certainly seems like Manny Ramirez, with 6 hits and 6 walks in 18 plate appearances, including two doubles and a homer, should be the NLCS MVP.

He even mentions that Jeffrey Leonard won in a losing cause in 1987. But was he the only one in the whole time period to do so?

Ok...back to Pilooski’s sultry-as-a-clarkii bar re-edit of Elvis’ “Crawfish”.

Ha, I downloaded that yesterday too. The voice did not sound like Elvis's at all. And I failed to see the appeal.
   6. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: October 15, 2008 at 03:53 PM (#2983018)
If it goes 4, then a starting pitcher almost certainly can't win

Still, Jose Rijo did. I can't remember any others offhand, though.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: October 15, 2008 at 04:08 PM (#2983033)
Still, Jose Rijo did. I can't remember any others offhand, though.


Barring rainouts, it won't happen again. What modern manager is going to bring a guy back on short rest when his team has a 3-0 lead in a series?
   8. JPWF13 Posted: October 15, 2008 at 04:11 PM (#2983039)
Still, Jose Rijo did. I can't remember any others offhand, though.


Well, he started game 1, and won 7-0
started game 4 and won 2-1

the Reds pen in that series:
13 ip
0 er
12/3 k/bb
7 hits

pretty good performance
   9. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 15, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2983040)
I couldn't have predicted the 2005 ALCS and World Series MVPs until they were named, even after watching every pitch.

How about that 2001 World Series. Co MVPs? The big dude won 3 games, the other guy gave up the would be series losing homer.
   10. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 15, 2008 at 04:14 PM (#2983044)
Still, Jose Rijo did.

I figured there might be one who did, so I weaseled "almost" in there. Whew!
   11. PepTech Posted: October 15, 2008 at 07:05 PM (#2983182)
It's POSSIBLE to predict any damn thing. I predict Pete Rose is elected president in November.

Yes, my nitpicker boots are on, why?
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