I wonder if David Cameron would like the Mariners to make a trade for Robinson Cano, if he were available. After all, .280/.320/.400 hitters aren't a dime a dozen these days.

Petty much?

I'd love to move Ray Durham for Richie Sexson.

In the linked article about Bartolo Colon, David says this:

in the second half of ‘07, Colon’s stuff was quite similar to Batista’s.

The results bear this out - his strikeout rate returned to the ‘04/’05 level and his HR rate dropped significantly as well. The overall package was a guy who threw strikes (2.5 BB/G), missed bats (6.5 K/G), and got enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park at an acceptable level (41.7% GB, 1.28 HR/G). Based on those rates, we’d have expected his ERA to be somewhere between 4.30 and 5.20.

Instead, it was 6.34. Why? He was absolutely terrible at stranding runners (63.4% LOB%) and the balls that were put in play against him turned into a lot of hits (.361 BABIP).

I'd like to know what outings David is including "in the second half". Colon pitched only three times - once in relief - after July 23, with a hBIP of .319 in those three outings. One was against Seattle, and he did pitch well in that start, to be sure, but I wouldn't make a judgment based on just one outing.

I should note that Randy Johnson had a season in 2003 which was in many ways like Colon's 2007, and he did bounce back a year later. Of course (a) Johnson's a better pitcher and (b) Johnson's effectiveness has declined since then. But if Colon IS 100% healthy, a one-year deal might be a good risk.

-- MWE

I'd like to know what outings David is including "in the second half".

I dumped his Pitch F/X numbers into a spreadsheet (it's at home, so I don't have the exact numbers right now), but there was a decent bump in velocity during his July/September performances compared to his April/May/June performances.

One was against Seattle, and he did pitch well in that start, to be sure, but I wouldn't make a judgment based on just one outing.

I'm not. Here's his pitch f/x card. 94.74 MPH initial velocity on his four seam fastball, 91.33 MPH on his two-seamer, and 84.96 MPH on his slider? That's still major league stuff.

I should note that Randy Johnson had a season in 2003 which was in many ways like Colon's 2007, and he did bounce back a year later. Of course (a) Johnson's a better pitcher and (b) Johnson's effectiveness has declined since then. But if Colon IS 100% healthy, a one-year deal might be a good risk.

I still think the Orlando Hernadez circa 2005 comparison works, too. Good stuff, poor results, but solid peripherals, and he's been pretty darn good ever since Arizona dumped him on the Mets for Jorge Julio, although he isn't exactly durable.

I have similar expectations for Colon. I doubt he's a 150+ inning guy anymore, but if you can get 20+ starts out of him and he can run a mid-4's ERA (which his BB/K/GB rates all say is totally reasonable), then he's a good bet to be the best pitcher signed this winter.

The moves make some sense - why sign Jenkins though? Don't you want to hand an OF spot to Adam Jones and/or Wlad Balentien?

Its probably wishful thinking though. With Littlefield and Baird gone, Bill Bavasi seems determined to take the mantle of baseball's worst GM.

Bart's stuff looked great when he came off the DL. The longer he stayed in the rotation, the worse he got. If you could give him about 15 days rest between starts I'm sure he'd be a great pitcher.

I sincerely hope he's healed and avoid breaking down, wherever he goes, but its been two years since he was able to pitch without (obviosus) pain, he's 35, and he's well, big boned. Its a risk.

Leaving aside whether Colon still "has it", I wouldn't think it would take $10M to get him signed. He's got to be seen now as seriously damaged goods and has never been seen as being in good condition.

I think AROM's right. You'll get a good month's worth of starts out of Colon somewhere, but the rest of the time he's throwing meatballs.

Even if it's only a month's worth, that's still an improvement on HoRam last year.

We hope the M's use Adam Jones in the outfield somewhere in '08. But with Johnny Mac showing a bias towards using vets, you never know.

The M's have already said they won't use two rookies in the outfield at the same time. So, this excludes Balentien, who's profile isn't exactly suited to Safeco to begin with.

The moves make some sense - why sign Jenkins though? Don't you want to hand an OF spot to Adam Jones and/or Wlad Balentien?

Adam Jones is handed a OF spot in Dave's plan: RF. Jenkins would take over in LF (w\ Ibañez replacing Sexson) as a one year stopgap until Balentien has proven ready (see galaxieboi's comment), and he would be a LHB in a RHB heavy lineup. The question is how much Jenkins would get and for how many years?

If I were the Mariners, I'd make a run at trading for Jeff Kent. 2B is the easiest position for them to upgrade at and Kent wants out of L.A. The Dodgers probably don't have much use for him either.

Trade Richie Sexson and $4.5 million in cash to San Francisco for Ray Durham

Reason enough to stop reading right there.

I'd love to move Ray Durham for Richie Sexson.

Hmm - if its a salary wash, I make the deal in a heartbeat as a Giants fan (both are FA's at year end, correct?). I think Ray will bounce-back, but its worth finding out if Frandsen is just a poor poor man's Eckstein, or actually Eckstein v2.0.

Reason enough to stop reading right there.

Care to explain why, Maury?

Is any part of this plan "Listen to internet geeks and get fired like Rafael Chaves?"

Care to explain why, Maury?

Sure. He's 36. His value will be in decline (16% attrition rate). And can fully understand the want to get rid of Sexson. Throwing in the cash, as well, is trading bad for bad. Why the love for the overvalued?

#17

So they are both old and declining with similar contracts and would be more valuable on the other team due to their respective replacements?

Sure. He's 36. His value will be in decline (16% attrition rate). And can fully understand the want to get rid of Sexson. Throwing in the cash, as well, is trading bad for bad. Why the love for the overvalued?

Sexson and Durham are both sunk costs, ridiculously overpaid, a shell of their former selves, and a bad fit for the club they're on. Durham wants to play, while the Giants would be better off giving Kevin Frandsen the second base job. Sexson's just part of a ridiculous logjam of 1B/DH types on the Mariners. The Giants need a first baseman and some pop in their line-up. The Mariners need a backup second baseman to challenge Jose Lopez and (as is stated in the article) could use Durham as a super-utility guy, giving him 300-400 ABs even if he doesn't win the second base job.

The Mariners could use Durham a lot more than they could use Sexson. The Giants could use Sexson a lot more than they could use Durham. The cash covers almost the entire difference in salaries.

Durham was really bad in 2007, but that was the first time in ten years that his OPS+ was under 103. Granted, ALL of his rate stats were MUCH, MUCH worse than they ever had been before, so maybe he's chronically injured and will never be good again, but it's not like we're talking about Damion Easley here. Durham was an unheralded star until 2007.

I want the Yankees to go after Sexson, since I really think he's due for a bounce back season. I have no idea how real the chance of that (either the season or the acquisition) happening is, but I'd still like to see it.

The Mariners could use Durham a lot more than they could use Sexson. The Giants could use Sexson a lot more than they could use Durham. The cash covers almost the entire difference in salaries.

I agree with this assessment. I don't know if the Mariners would do it, but it's a trade that makes some sense for both teams.

And I like it as a Giants' fan because Sexson's probably a better bet to bounce back in 2008 than Durham. Almost so that I'd make the trade if I were Sabean without any cash changing hands.

Sexson's BABIP was .217 last year compared to a career average of .297. Considering he's only 32, shouldn't he be expected to bounce back quite a bit? (And before anyone jumps on me, i know BABIP is totally a highly repeatable skill for hitters, I just think such a sudden drop is probably uncommon for a 32 year-old)

Wow, 59 good innings in a career now gets you a 3/$9 contract?

Jeremy Affeldt's career

I don't know - I count '02, '03, and '07 as "good innings", if you're just going by results, and I think its hard to argue that 486 innings with a 101 ERA+ and a .760 OPS allowed is anything other than a pretty decent career. But, since I'm not really into results based analysis, that's not why I like Affeldt.

He's a lefty with a legit 90-94 MPH sinking fastball that gets both strikeouts (career 16% K rate) and groundballs (50% GB rate last four years). He has both a slider and a curve to keep RH and LH hitters honest, allowing him to demonstrate no significant platoon splits, making him more valuable than a generic situational reliever. The combination of groundballs and strikeouts keeps his HR rate low, so the only real problem he's had in his career is command, which is somewhat mitigated in relief work - it's tough to string together a big rally against a guy if all you can do is draw a few walks and hit the ball on the ground.

Even with subpar command, Affeldt's been a useful pitcher for years. His ERA's don't reflect his actual ability, but that's more a problem with ERA than Jeremy Affeldt.

Honestly, $3 million a year for a guy like Affeldt is a bargain.

Affeldt's stuff is still good. I'd like to see whether a pitching coach who's a mechanical guru can get through to him and turn him into a decent starter.