I was actually a bit surprised when Beane threw in the towel, I didn't think the A's were that far behind the Angels. I thought if the A's caught some breaks (other than bones) they could have competed for the division this year.

The A's had the same pythag record as the Mariners last year, although they finished 12 back of the Ms in the actual standings.

Wasn't this linked to the other day?

I think the A's have the talent to win the west but it would take some real longshots like Harden and Chavez both being healthy and highly productive to beat the Angels and M's. Escobar (or Vlad) out for awhile wouldn't hurt...

Yes, it was, and we were all just as confused then.

FWIW, only ZiPS sees the A's as the AL West favorites in my early sims.

Chris, the original article was linked to here on BBTF, but the 93-win team article is new. It basically explains how DMZ human-managed the 2008 projected Mariners to success, as opposed to the sim's more straightforward/stupid computer-managing algorithm.

Might as well link to your THT roundtable thread on the trade. How come not one of you used "sabermetrically illiterate b-----s"? I was waiting for it.

Comparing CHONE OPS to ZIPs

c suzuki 689 694
1b barton 765 809
2b ellis 763 753
ss crosby 689 658
3b chavez 782 794
rf buck 788 818
cf linden 694 712
lf brown 721 698
dh cust 814 864

average 745 755

Thats what, a 15 run difference? I didn't have a projection for Denorfia (zips 788), I used the best outfielders we both had projections for. Still, assume Denorfia can hit his ZIPs line fora full year we're still talking maybe 30 runs tops.

pitching: Chone/Zips:
blanton 3.98/4.32
braden 4.30/5.01
gaudin 4.31/4.55
harden 3.83/2.74 (9 starts/15 starts)
eveland 4.43/4.50
dinardo 4.88/4.62

simple avg 4.28/4.29

No difference, even giving equal weight to a 2.74 ERA from Harden. I've got the A's as about a 73 win team. Hard to see how they are winning more than 77 or so with the slightly more favorable ZIPS projections. I wonder how the team lineup was set up in the sim - Dan's pitcher projections likely assume a pretty good defense, if the sims are being run with say, Jack Cust in the outfield and both Johnson and Barton in the field, that should hurt the pitchers a bit. Still seems weird. Not worth worrying about though.

No difference, even giving equal weight to a 2.74 ERA from Harden. I've got the A's as about a 73 win team. Hard to see how they are winning more than 77 or so with the slightly more favorable ZIPS projections.

Does DMB account well for the injury proneness of Harden/Chavez/Crosby etc.? Someone in another thread said it didn't.

If that's true, I could see Oakland looking pretty good.

Does DMB account well for the injury proneness of Harden/Chavez/Crosby etc.? Someone in another thread said it didn't.

DMB plays guys as often as you tell it to. I am restricting Harden to 19-20 starts a year, Chavez to about 450 AB, Crosby to about 350 AB. More importantly, I'm using the same playing time assumptions for the different projection systems.
Expecting Harden to take the post 19-20 times is probably wildly optimistic. I can cut that down to 10.

I searched before I submitted this article and didn't find it. But after I submitted it, I found it. I was hoping they wouldn't post it. In any case, how about the follow-up? :)

A's will win 75 games. There, next topic.

Angels without Vlad = meaningful September games for Fremont and Washington State. Otherwise, nope.