Just wanted to add that this is all assuming that he makes 34 starts. If you figure in the chances of injury, there's wasn't a 45% chance he would win 20 prior to the season.

I can't see how he has an 89% chance to win 20 games. Even if he has a 100% chance to reach 34 starts, which he's done twice in his 4 full seasons, he needs to win 12 of those 26 remaining starts. Winning 12 of 26 starts is actually a pretty good ratio, equivalent to winning 16 of 34 -- the number of wins Webb had in '06, when he led the league.

Six other guys since 1956 won their first 8 starts of the season. Only one won 20 games (Dave Stewart in '88). (Valenzuela '81 had the strike to contend with, and was only on pace to come close.) '08 Webb and '08 Arizona may be a better pitcher/team combo than some of the others, but I wouldn't put his chances for 20 wins much above 50%.

30 wins? Hell, what are the odds he gets 30 decisions? Only one man did in 2007. Only one did it in 2006. By year for the last decade (in parathesis, everyone with more than 30 in a year):

1998 - 3
1999 - 3 (Jose Lima 31)
2000 - 2
2001 - 2 (Mark Buehrle 31)
2002 - 2
2003 - 2
2004 - 3
2005 - 5 (Roy Oswalt, 32; Dontrelle Willis 32)
2006 - 1
2007 - 1 (Carlos Zambrano, 31)

Gotta say, I don't like anyone's chances of getting 30 wins.

In case anyone's curious -- last time anyone had X number of decisions in a year:

33: 1990 (Bob Welch, Dave Stewart, Jack Morris)
34: 1984 (Joaquin Andujar)
35: 1979 (Phil Niekro, who had 41)

Yeah, I really don't like the odds of anyone getting 30 wins a year.

12 of 26 starts is actually a pretty good ratio, equivalent to winning 16 of 34

Somebody forgot/failed middle school math.


Not that the percentages are all that much different as the second is only slightly harder. This would put him at a needed win rate of around 47 percent, certainly easily attainable if he actually makes every start.

Of course, I don't know what the probability of exceeding a 47% win rate is since we don't know the distribution of expected wins (or even expected wins given a certain performance level.) I doubt 89% assuming no injury is reasonable though since my guess is that the win distribution has a high variance even without injuries. Even if his mean win rate were as high as 65%(76% winning percentage with 85% of games ending in decision), I'm not sure I can imagine that it is that unlikely he has a run below 47. But I could easily imagine it being as high as 75% chance of getting there, provided that he actually stays healthy all year.

So, where would you set the over/under on his final win total? The possibility of an injury (and likelihood that he would be shut down with a very minor injury if the team remains in the lead) has to drag down the total somewhat.

For his career, Webb has won 42.7% of his starts. If he makes 34, that would put him at 19 wins.

Throwing out 2004, where he was 7-16 with a 129 ERA+ (I know it happened, but the team was so bad that I don't blame him for his win percentage in the least), his career WP/Start is 48.5%. That rate would put him at 12.6 more wins, or 20 1/2 for the year.

Since he made a great leap forward in terms of his HR rate and some other peripherals in 2006, we can look at his WP from 06-08, which is 51.8%, his win total is pushed to 21 1/2.

Last year, he won 52.9% of his starts, which would give him almost 22 by year's end, but since his team's offense has improved by 25.3%, we could consider an upside of 66.2% for winning, which would give him 25 wins. And since his ERA+ is 19% better than last year, maybe his WP will be bumped by that margin to 78.9% and he will win 28 games. Since that is an absurdly optimistic interpretation of his abilities, I don't think there is any way he wins more than 25 games.

Taking these factors into consideration, I think you could get action from the average baseball fan at about 24 wins, maybe 23.5. For primates, I think the action would come around 22 wins, which is what I would project for him.

He would have to continue to seriously outperform his SNWL to get to 30. However, if he continues his real performance (i.e., his SNWL remains at its current level) and he gets 34 starts, he should be a lock to get 20.

BTW, Edinson Volquez currently has the best ML SNWL.

If anyone in a 5-man rotation ever wins 30 games, I'll eat John Kruk's jock.

I'll eat John Kruk's jock.

Half a sac lunch?

If anyone in a 5-man rotation ever wins 30 games, I'll eat John Kruk's jock
As a naturally cautious person, I would never, ever, make such a statement, even if the odds were 1 in a million. The mind can't even conceive...

Another win tonight. I would have put the O/U at around 21.5 and probably be OK with either side, now I'll put it at 22.5 and probably be OK with either side. Even 30 is possible, though extremely unlikely-maybe 2-5%.

Nick Piecoro recap

For Webb, it doesn't seem to matter whom he faces. He went 7 1/3 innings to improve to 9-0, becoming the first pitcher to win his first nine starts to open a season since Andy Hawkins started 10-0 for San Diego in 1985.