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Six other guys since 1956 won their first 8 starts of the season. Only one won 20 games (Dave Stewart in '88). (Valenzuela '81 had the strike to contend with, and was only on pace to come close.) '08 Webb and '08 Arizona may be a better pitcher/team combo than some of the others, but I wouldn't put his chances for 20 wins much above 50%.
1998 - 3
1999 - 3 (Jose Lima 31)
2000 - 2
2001 - 2 (Mark Buehrle 31)
2002 - 2
2003 - 2
2004 - 3
2005 - 5 (Roy Oswalt, 32; Dontrelle Willis 32)
2006 - 1
2007 - 1 (Carlos Zambrano, 31)
Gotta say, I don't like anyone's chances of getting 30 wins.
In case anyone's curious -- last time anyone had X number of decisions in a year:
33: 1990 (Bob Welch, Dave Stewart, Jack Morris)
34: 1984 (Joaquin Andujar)
35: 1979 (Phil Niekro, who had 41)
Yeah, I really don't like the odds of anyone getting 30 wins a year.
Somebody forgot/failed middle school math.
Not that the percentages are all that much different as the second is only slightly harder. This would put him at a needed win rate of around 47 percent, certainly easily attainable if he actually makes every start.
Of course, I don't know what the probability of exceeding a 47% win rate is since we don't know the distribution of expected wins (or even expected wins given a certain performance level.) I doubt 89% assuming no injury is reasonable though since my guess is that the win distribution has a high variance even without injuries. Even if his mean win rate were as high as 65%(76% winning percentage with 85% of games ending in decision), I'm not sure I can imagine that it is that unlikely he has a run below 47. But I could easily imagine it being as high as 75% chance of getting there, provided that he actually stays healthy all year.
For his career, Webb has won 42.7% of his starts. If he makes 34, that would put him at 19 wins.
Throwing out 2004, where he was 7-16 with a 129 ERA+ (I know it happened, but the team was so bad that I don't blame him for his win percentage in the least), his career WP/Start is 48.5%. That rate would put him at 12.6 more wins, or 20 1/2 for the year.
Since he made a great leap forward in terms of his HR rate and some other peripherals in 2006, we can look at his WP from 06-08, which is 51.8%, his win total is pushed to 21 1/2.
Last year, he won 52.9% of his starts, which would give him almost 22 by year's end, but since his team's offense has improved by 25.3%, we could consider an upside of 66.2% for winning, which would give him 25 wins. And since his ERA+ is 19% better than last year, maybe his WP will be bumped by that margin to 78.9% and he will win 28 games. Since that is an absurdly optimistic interpretation of his abilities, I don't think there is any way he wins more than 25 games.
Taking these factors into consideration, I think you could get action from the average baseball fan at about 24 wins, maybe 23.5. For primates, I think the action would come around 22 wins, which is what I would project for him.
BTW, Edinson Volquez currently has the best ML SNWL.
Half a sac lunch?
As a naturally cautious person, I would never, ever, make such a statement, even if the odds were 1 in a million. The mind can't even conceive...
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