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Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Vegas Watch: Evaluating April MLB Predictions

Wicked Cool...Little Steven Phillips the winner!

3. Steve Phillips, Boston Red Sox
Predicted wins: 82
On pace for: 96

This only came out third in my little formula, but that may be generous. Boston was a mess in ‘06, and they still managed 86 wins. Nobody else had the Red Sox winning less than 90 games. Between this and repeatedly predicting the Yankees to miss the playoffs in August, I feel like Phillips just makes predictions for the shock value of them.

...On the other end of the spectrum is, not surprisingly, Mr. Phillips. If you watch Baseball Tonight and SportsCenter (or are a Mets fan...) this probably doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Luckily, Steve Phillips isn’t paid a lot of money to analyze baseball for a living- if he was, his incompetence would be pretty embarassing.

Repoz Posted: September 25, 2007 at 07:09 PM | 9 comment(s)
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1. Shibal Posted: September 25, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2542286)

I can guess what's going to be on the back of next year's Baseball Prospectus. Here's a hint...it won't be their Seattle prediction.

2. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: September 25, 2007 at 07:05 PM (#2542338)

Didn't even mention my prediction that everybody would get a lot of exercise outdoors.

3. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!) Posted: September 25, 2007 at 07:12 PM (#2542353)

Here's a hint...it won't be their Seattle prediction.

Or anyone's, except Stark, I suppose.

4. RayDiPerna Posted: September 25, 2007 at 07:13 PM (#2542356)

I can guess what's going to be on the back of next year's Baseball Prospectus. Here's a hint...it won't be their Seattle prediction.

In fairness, Seattle's run differential suggests a team that is more in line with between 73 and 76 wins (depending on the system used) rather than the 83 wins they currently have. I know run differential isn't the final word on anything, but it does add very useful information.

The Seattle prediction was simply not that horrible. Their starting pitching is pretty bad.

5. Dr Love Posted: September 25, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2542379)

Didn't even mention my prediction that everybody would get a lot of exercise outdoors.

I'm pretty sure David Wells didn't get any exercise.

6. AlouGoodbye Posted: September 25, 2007 at 07:46 PM (#2542470)

I predicted a good time would be had by all. Boy, was I wrong.

7. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 25, 2007 at 09:28 PM (#2542881)

I can guess what's going to be on the back of next year's Baseball Prospectus.

Especially after they took so much heat from the Chicago franchise.
Didn't Kenny Williams or someone in the franchise make some nasty public statements about BP after they saw/read the BP predictions?

8. akrasian Posted: September 25, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2543006)

I believe that was Konerko.

9. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: September 26, 2007 at 02:07 AM (#2543135)

You see his related news book marks on the bottom?

Labels: BP, Dumb People, ESPN, Neyer, PECOTA, Predictions, Steve Phillips

I got a kick out of that!

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Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Vegas Watch: Evaluating April MLB Predictions

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