Vegas Watch: Handicapping the AL MVP Race

Well tilt my unburnished Bristol Stool Scale...Miguel Cabrera?

For the most part, it looks like a two horse race. If the White Sox win the Central, Quentin’s 40+ homers and 120+ RBIs will be enough. If the Twins somehow continue to rake with runners in scoring position and make the playoffs, Morneau should win his second MVP.

There are a few other possible scenarios, none of which seem particularly likely. If the Tigers wake up from their 4.5 month slumber and make a run into October, Miguel Cabrera may have the numbers and late support to win it. Youkilis is a possibility, although it’s hard to imagine him hitting much better than he currently is, and he may not have the national name recognition anyway.

Hamilton has finally fallen off his 170-RBI pace, and that’s hurt his chances. If the Rangers were to make the playoffs, he’d be the obvious choice (at 124.9), but that’s not going to happen. Not being on a playoff team is almost impossible to overcome for a guy whose candidacy relies on RBIs; if his line was more HR-heavy, like A-Rod in ‘03, he’d be right in the mix.

Speaking of Rodriguez, he could theoretically still sneak into the race; the Yankees would obviously have to make the playoffs, and he’d probably need at least a couple walk-off homers to retain the “clutch” reputation he briefly had 11 months ago. He is really hurt here by the time he missed; if plays every game the rest of the way, and keeps up his current per game pace, he projects to 64.7. Not that it’s relevant to this discussion, but A-Rod has also taken over the AL VORP lead.