Verducci: Five Cuts: Here’s why it’s so hard to close out a game in October

The Verducci Efface.

Take all the closers this postseason (Rivera, Brian Fuentes of the Angels, Jonathan Papelbon of the Red Sox, Joe Nathan of the Twins, Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers, Brad Lidge of the Phillies, Ryan Franklin of the Cardinals and Huston Street of the Rockies), look at what they did in their 18 ninth-inning appearances of the Division Series, and compare that to the major league average ninth inning—not just those thrown by closers—for the 2009 season:

Ninth-Inning Performance 	Runs/Game       WHIP
2009 MLB average 	        0.433 	        1.31
2009 postseason closers 	0.667 	        2.11

Whoa. Runs jumped 54 percent from the average ninth inning to the postseason closers’ ninth inning, while the rate of base runners jumped 61 percent.

Why is the ninth inning so much harder for pitchers in October than in the other six months? There is the element of pressure, of course. But there are also so much more detailed scouting reports and so much studying of that information. (Players couldn’t possibly absorb and apply that much information over 162 games without frying their brains, but it works for a five- or seven-game series with off days.) Finally, there is also more intense focus by the batters in the postseason. No one gives away an at-bat in the ninth inning of a postseason game. No one. Yes, it does happen during the regular season.

All of those factors make the closer’s job even more difficult in October than it is from April through September. And that’s why Rivera, doing it year after year, is the greatest ever.