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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, November 28, 2007Vince Gennaro: A-Rod’s dollars make sense for Yankees
I can’t wait for Steve Phillips to publish his calculations on the tragic financial losses expected from this “1 star, 24 scrubs” business model. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP
Posted: November 28, 2007 at 04:01 AM | 11 comment(s)
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YES figures are already locked in, so the near-term isn't where the value is at. All R-Rod's value has to come with getting them into the playoffs (or, a WS championship, for that matter), and his value when he comes up on those homerun milestones.
It would be good for Vince to give up exactly how he derived the $100 million.
Tying any one player's value to an RSN is a drop in the bucket. YES' deal with operators are locked in, and therefore, any value would be assigned when renewal came up. At that point, it's a matter of wins and losses that is critical. The value of all RSNs have increased over the last 4 years, not just YES. RSN values are tied to team brand, not players. Most all the streams associated with YES are locked in for another 7 years.
In other words, I think that Vince is doing some speculating here.
Marquee draw is grossly overvalued. There is value, but it is not nearly at the levels (however Vince is deriving them, something we are never explained) expressed in this article. Star pitchers may draw more attention on days they pitch, but over the course of a season, the soft dollar value of an individual player gets overshadowed by team performance.As a clarification, he gets nonguarenteed bonuses based on the following:
$6 million when he reaches each of five milestones: the career home run totals of Willie Mays (660), Babe Ruth (714), Henry Aaron (755) and Barry Bonds (762), and when he breaks the record.
I think you have to buy his book for that. ;)
I would have liked to see more on the calculations surrounding the return on investment in A-Rod versus investing in Treasurys at 4.25% a year, or in junk bonds at 12.5% a year (and by the way, given the credit markets these days, you have to figure that some of those junk bonds would default, lessening the 12.5% return). If A-Rod is worth $450M, that suggests A-Rod gives the Yankees a very robust 11% return over the contract's 10-year life. To me, that seems high, especially given the risks involved.
This analysis makes sense if you agree with Gennaro's valuation assumptions. First, will A-Rod's "marquee value" really approach $20M per year in 2014, etc.? Like Maury, I have my doubts. The biggest "marquee" value in recent years had to have been Barry Bonds in 2001-2002. Admittedly, that was a lower-revenue environment, but was Bonds in those years even worth $10M in "marquee value"? The Giants actually saw attendance per game decline from 2000 to 2001 to 2002 -- even though the team was winning and Bonds was setting records (and not yet tagged as a monstrous steroidal villain). I don't doubt that A-Rod has and will have marquee value, but I don't know how high that'll be.
Secondly, will A-Rod be worth $20M in "performance value" in 2016-17? I know inflation continues to rise and MLB salaries should continue to rise, but will a LF/1B (A-Rod's position by then) who bats .270 and hits 20 or 22 HR really be worth $20M in pure performance then? That seems high to me.
Don't get me wrong: As a Yankees fan, I'm glad the team re-signed A-Rod. And heck, it's not my money that's being spent on him; for those who'll say the Yankees will boost ticket prices to help offset A-Rod's contract I say that the Yankees would be boosting ticket prices regardless. I just find it easier to believe that the Yankees are going to break even or lose money on A-Rod's contract.
Someone tell me how much Wade Boggs was worth in marquee value to the D-Rays. Know what I mean?
It's not that there isn't some form of marquee value to consider. It's that it gets blown out of proportion based on the variables in play (locked in television rates, as one example).
So, Alex could presumably make $12,000,000 in one 2 HR game?
Plus the $170K or so he will be getting per game.
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