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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Vince Gennaro: A-Rod’s dollars make sense for Yankees

The total revenue and asset value of A-Rod to the Yankees is at least $100 million greater than the value he could have generated for any other team. No other team has a comparable fan base and revenue model. Combining the industry-leading YES Network with the highest priced tickets and New York-sized demand for luxury suites means no team can move the financial needle like the Yankees.

Only the Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels might have justified a contract of this magnitude and only on the condition that they assembled a playoff-bound team without exceeding the luxury-tax threshold. Not only did A-Rod end up in the place where he could generate the most value, but the terms of the deal are a win-win for both A-Rod and the Yankees.

I can’t wait for Steve Phillips to publish his calculations on the tragic financial losses expected from this “1 star, 24 scrubs” business model.

1k5v3L Posted: November 28, 2007 at 04:01 AM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: NY Yankees

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   1. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: November 28, 2007 at 05:52 AM (#2626858)
I read that as Vince Gallaro, Vince Gennero is an impostor , if you ask me....
   2. Maury Brown Posted: November 28, 2007 at 10:26 AM (#2626950)
Not only did A-Rod end up in the place where he could generate the most value...
This is debatable. The Mets probably have more upside given that they have an RSN, a new stadium and a 20 year/$240 million naming rights deal, it would have allowed the Mets to bump the needle, comparatively, more than the Yankees (A-Rod, for all intents and purposes, never left the Yankees).

YES figures are already locked in, so the near-term isn't where the value is at. All R-Rod's value has to come with getting them into the playoffs (or, a WS championship, for that matter), and his value when he comes up on those homerun milestones.

It would be good for Vince to give up exactly how he derived the $100 million.
   3. The District Attorney Posted: November 28, 2007 at 10:46 AM (#2626969)
He would have made less difference to the Mets' won-lost record, though, because he'd be replacing someone better (especially including the defensive costs of moving people around, however they would have worked it.)
   4. Maury Brown Posted: November 28, 2007 at 12:38 PM (#2627088)
The lofty $3 billion valuation experts have placed on the YES network is largely based on the popularity and appeal of the Yankees and the resulting industry high subscriber fees paid by cable and satellite providers. Along with shortstop Derek Jeter, A-Rod is an important asset who adds star power to the network, in addition to contributing to the Yankees winning ways. The potential for celebrating his many milestones, retiring his number, wearing a Yankees cap into the Hall of Fame, and bringing the all-time home run title back to New York can be centerpieces of YES programming for years to come and earn Rodriguez credit for a small piece of the network’s projected future growth.
I like Vince a lot, but he needs to step back and reevaluate most all of this. Note that the Rangers are never mentioned (where was A-Rod's soft-revenue bounce there? TV ratings dropped when arrived in Texas and went up when he left).

Tying any one player's value to an RSN is a drop in the bucket. YES' deal with operators are locked in, and therefore, any value would be assigned when renewal came up. At that point, it's a matter of wins and losses that is critical. The value of all RSNs have increased over the last 4 years, not just YES. RSN values are tied to team brand, not players. Most all the streams associated with YES are locked in for another 7 years.

In other words, I think that Vince is doing some speculating here.

Marquee draw is grossly overvalued. There is value, but it is not nearly at the levels (however Vince is deriving them, something we are never explained) expressed in this article. Star pitchers may draw more attention on days they pitch, but over the course of a season, the soft dollar value of an individual player gets overshadowed by team performance.
We know the details of Rodriguez's contract: $275 million for 10 years, plus another $30 million if he breaks Barry Bonds' all-time home run record
As a clarification, he gets nonguarenteed bonuses based on the following:

$6 million when he reaches each of five milestones: the career home run totals of Willie Mays (660), Babe Ruth (714), Henry Aaron (755) and Barry Bonds (762), and when he breaks the record.
   5. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: November 28, 2007 at 01:36 PM (#2627150)
It would be good for Vince to give up exactly how he derived the $100 million.

I think you have to buy his book for that. ;)

I would have liked to see more on the calculations surrounding the return on investment in A-Rod versus investing in Treasurys at 4.25% a year, or in junk bonds at 12.5% a year (and by the way, given the credit markets these days, you have to figure that some of those junk bonds would default, lessening the 12.5% return). If A-Rod is worth $450M, that suggests A-Rod gives the Yankees a very robust 11% return over the contract's 10-year life. To me, that seems high, especially given the risks involved.

This analysis makes sense if you agree with Gennaro's valuation assumptions. First, will A-Rod's "marquee value" really approach $20M per year in 2014, etc.? Like Maury, I have my doubts. The biggest "marquee" value in recent years had to have been Barry Bonds in 2001-2002. Admittedly, that was a lower-revenue environment, but was Bonds in those years even worth $10M in "marquee value"? The Giants actually saw attendance per game decline from 2000 to 2001 to 2002 -- even though the team was winning and Bonds was setting records (and not yet tagged as a monstrous steroidal villain). I don't doubt that A-Rod has and will have marquee value, but I don't know how high that'll be.

Secondly, will A-Rod be worth $20M in "performance value" in 2016-17? I know inflation continues to rise and MLB salaries should continue to rise, but will a LF/1B (A-Rod's position by then) who bats .270 and hits 20 or 22 HR really be worth $20M in pure performance then? That seems high to me.

Don't get me wrong: As a Yankees fan, I'm glad the team re-signed A-Rod. And heck, it's not my money that's being spent on him; for those who'll say the Yankees will boost ticket prices to help offset A-Rod's contract I say that the Yankees would be boosting ticket prices regardless. I just find it easier to believe that the Yankees are going to break even or lose money on A-Rod's contract.
   6. Maury Brown Posted: November 28, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2627192)
I think you have to buy his book for that. ;)
Nope. Good book that I reference on occasion. But, if there was something critical to say about Vince's work its that there is no methodology presented. We are left to accept Vince's numbers based purely on face value. The only metric presented has been BP's WARP.
   7. Maury Brown Posted: November 28, 2007 at 03:31 PM (#2627260)
The biggest "marquee" value in recent years had to have been Barry Bonds in 2001-2002. Admittedly, that was a lower-revenue environment, but was Bonds in those years even worth $10M in "marquee value"?
We're talking Bonds here, so take that into account... Television ratings were flat for the Giants during the home run chase. Attendance was up, but then attendance has been fairly stable and high at Pacball/AT&T;Park.

Someone tell me how much Wade Boggs was worth in marquee value to the D-Rays. Know what I mean?

It's not that there isn't some form of marquee value to consider. It's that it gets blown out of proportion based on the variables in play (locked in television rates, as one example).
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2007 at 03:47 PM (#2627278)
Attendance by itself doesn't really tell us much anyway - we'd really need to know attendance at a particular ticket price.
   9. Misirlou's fighting force of extordinary magnitude Posted: November 28, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2627280)
$6 million when he reaches each of five milestones: the career home run totals of Willie Mays (660), Babe Ruth (714), Henry Aaron (755) and Barry Bonds (762), and when he breaks the record.


So, Alex could presumably make $12,000,000 in one 2 HR game?
   10. Randy Jones Posted: November 28, 2007 at 03:54 PM (#2627282)
So, Alex could presumably make $12,000,000 in one 2 HR game?

Plus the $170K or so he will be getting per game.
   11. Misirlou's fighting force of extordinary magnitude Posted: November 28, 2007 at 03:57 PM (#2627283)
Also, it's not likely, but it is possible that Griffey could pass Mays before Arod does.
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