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From sitting through the entire ASG?
I take this as a semi-planned DL stint for a guy who doesn't really have the physical capability to pitch a full season in the rotation, and a semi-planned roster shuffle to put Clay Buchholz in the big league rotation once they were convinced he was ready to contribute to the big club.
The big news, to me, is that the Red Sox have decided they want Clay Buchholz in the rotation regularly. They must think he's mentally ready for the show again. That's very good news. Plus I love watching Buc do his thing - who was the last big pitching prospect with two plus pitches that weren't his fastball?
Well, the alternative would likely be Bowden. Would that make you feel more comfortable? I didn't think so.
From a side session, per reports. It's a lower back strain that is unrelated to his other back injuries.
Disagree.
I hardly think it's "panic time" for the Sox. They've still got a 5 game lead on Tampa in the loss column (Texas is actually second in the WC, 4 games back) so unless they get swept in Texas (possible but not likely) they're still in good shape. Bay isn't going to his .220 the rest of the year and Youkilis should hit better also. They're 8-7 in July so if this is the slumping version of the Sox I think all is generally OK though I do agree that another bat would be useful.
Another subject - is Matsuzaka going to pitch again this year? I haven't heard anything at all recently.
Doesn't ANYONE care about how this helps my fantasy team? Priorities, people!
Tommy Hanson?
I am assuming that the lack of news is telling. My guess is that they are holding a couple of September starts in front of him like a carrot but I expect the Sox aren't really counting on him for 2009.
I noticed Hanson broke through for 11 K's against SF. And I know everyone will joke about SF's offense, but that's still has to be a nice sign for Braves fans (and fantasy league Hanson owners).
EDIT: I guess the idea is that several members of the team are slumping. Unless there's any reason to regard these slumps as anything other than normal variation, why should they "panic"? Do you think Jason Bay isn't a 370/500 hitter? Would you replace him with Chris Carter or something?
Their DH has an 84 OPS+.
The guy who plays most of the time at SS has a 78 OPS+.
Ellsbury is under 100.
Drew's been dreadful recently.
They just put their All-Star starting pitcher on the DL.
There's problems aplenty; my list is just the beginning. This team, as constructed, is not a championship-level club. They've made bold, successful moves in the recent past; I think they need another one.
1) Is this an injury that will leave Wakefield out for an etended period (say, beyond two more weeks)?
ANSWER: You never know until a player returns, but it sounds like a legit 15-day DL stint, nothing too serious.
2) How much of a dropoff is there between Wakefield and is replacement for the next three starts (in this case, Buchholz)?
ANSWER: Well, Wakefield has been providing about a 4 ERA with an average of about 6.1 IP per start since June 1st (if you go back into his last few starts in May, the ERA would jump up a bit). He's been giving up a lot of hits lately, while avoiding allowing lots of earned runs. For Buchholz to match what Wakefield's been giving, he'd probably have to average 6+ innings and about 3 ER per start. Can he do that? Yeah, probably. Well, how many teams have a guy from AAA they can bring up that is more likely to give that than the Red Sox right now?
3) Any longer-term impact?
ANSWER: In my opinion, as long as Wakefield is healthy at the end of this couple of weeks, and as long as Buchholz isn't a disaster, then the Red Sox are in better shape than they were before. Why?
a) Wakefield gets a couple of weeks to rest - givign him a better chance of being effective in September.
b) The team gets a better chance to accurately evaluate Buchholz's ability to help the team this year.
c) If Buchholz is better than 6 IP/3 ER average per start, the Sox are in a more confident position to replace Penny (because of a trade) or Smoltz (because of ineffectiveness or a move to the bullpen, allowing the Sox to move Saito, for example).
The only way this is bad news is if Wakefield is a lot more hurt than we think, and/or if Buchholz bombs in these next three starts.
You've watched a lot of baseball, as have I. Would you feel good about going into September/October with the Sox as they look today?
We don't have enough data to know, statistically, which of those guys is good and which isn't. The Sox need to evaluate the talent, and make moves based on that evaluation.
This is perfectly normal at the trading deadline. I feel no more or less concern about the club than I do at any normal trading deadline. Last year was about seven times more stressful.
BOS: 3.90
NYY: 4.06
TBR: 4.61
TEAM OPS in July
BOS: .725
NYY: .836
TBR: .702
The Red Sox are playing as poorly as they have at any other time this season, and these are the results they have to show for the month. Whatever. As MCoA said, continue evaluations and make the moves necessary to improve odds of winning a title.
Brett Anderson
Hanson, though, that's right. So it's not that weird.
He's JD Drew.
BP:
BA:
Looking it up, it seems that, at the least, pitch fx is having the same trouble I do with the curve and slider. It thinks Anderson's throwing mostly curves and fastballs too.
Yes, definitely. It fits so perfectly with their way of handling things that I'd be shocked if they didn't do it. Doing it allows them to remind themselves and everyone else how even-handed and calm they are and how little the division means to them.
Why not? Sorry if I missed it but I don't think anyone has raised the possibility that they're showcasing Buchholz for a trade.
Does anyone think we're kicking the tires on an Adrian Gonzalez deal? That would be a massive upgrade on the 1B/3B side, and while I fear Youkilis would not age well at 3B on a permanent basis, Lowell's non-production and the ripple effect that would cause this year and next is of far greater concern to me than the starting pitching. I know the Padres are not keen to trade him because the contract looks so good, but the contract is to me precisely the reason why the Red Sox would be interested--and likely willing to give up a bit more than they normally would.
Going to be an interesting 10 days.
And as for a big-tme trade, if it's not Halladay, there's nobody else they'd seek to acquire for pitching. For a bat, if you made a big trade, who would you sit down? Varitek? Lowell? Ortiz? Ellsbury? You can't send anybody on the team down to AAA, and none of them will be included in the trade, so you'd basically be cutting any position player you'd seek to replace, except for Green/Lowrie...except nobody is talking like we're getting an impact SS or something.
On talk radio, you hear everybody call in wanting Victor Martinez or Adrian Gonzalez, but realistically, who on the roster do you cut/demote to fit them on the roster?
I think this team, which is good enough to win the World Series, is going to stay almost exactly as it is right now, barring a major injury. They are pretty locked into this roster, as much as any team can be in mid-July...
Yes, please says my wish fairy....
IMHO, this FO is kicking tyres on everyone they think is worthwhile. The move to "rest" Wake and put Buchholz on display must have some intent on putting his talent on display for all to see.
Gonzalez to 1B (perhaps with a DH appearance once a week to give Papi a breather)
Youkilis to 3B (1B when Gonzalez either has day off or DHs)
Lowell to bench, to fill in at 3B when Gonzalez rests
Lowrie to SS
Green to bench (SS when needed)
Kotsay DFA
Now, this assumes Baldelli can be a 4th OF and we can go without a 5th OF. I think we can. It's not ideal, but in the grand scheme of things Lowell can't be an everyday 3B anymore (at least this year), and while I'd nominally like Kotsay's bat over Green's in a PH situation, everything else favors Green sticking instead, again, at least for the rest of this year.
Sort out the Lowell thing at the end of the year... I do fear we'll be eating most of Lowell's 2010 salary as well as Lugo's.
Cliff Lee? How about we go after Lee and Martinez and try to package something over to Cleveland?
Hey, I just threw it out there. There are many more clever people on this site who could come up with something. All I know is the offense is rather anemic right now and Johnson or Gonzalez would be helpful.
Also, I know Drew is really struggling right now, but it seems every time they use Ellsbury in the leadoff spot, they lose.
Half the stupid team is in a slump right now and things probably look way worse than they are. But, even knowing that, they need good corner bat or excellent SS.
see, now this is why i love reading this site more than sonsofsamhorn.net. over there, they're doing to talk radio thing, pissing their pants shamelessly, and i don't get it. right now the red sox are deeper than anyone and there's no realistic trade that they can make to drastically improve the team. we can make marginal improvements, but the cost will not be marginal.
also: pants pissers, just remember, look at marc sully's stats above the next time you get worried. this team is ####### good, and is right now a world series contender.
there. fixed it for you.
Well that's a bit extreme. I agree, its a 95 win team as it stands now. I'd love another bat though. Besides the FO is always looking to improve so I'd be surprised if they didn't do anything.
Let me see if I can help you understand, #49.
The Sox just went from a three-game lead to a one-game deficit in the division in less than a week. The team that just overtook them shows signs of dominance - The Yankees are a major league-best 43-22 since Rodriguez came off the disabled list May 8 following hip surgery. The Sox are listlessly losing games, and just put their #3 starter on the DL.
Is it time to panic and run amok? No, it is not. But absent a significant upgrade, I don't see a World Series team here. It's just too many replacement-level hitters and not enough pitching.
I suppose if you count their numbers since the ASG, their 12 runs in 5 games, then sure - they feature "replacement level" hitters up and down the lineup. But be honest for a second. Do they start even one "replacement level" hitter?
not enough pitching
Even as they slump, they out-pitch NYY and TBR.
Who are all these replacement level hitters? In the recent starting nine, I can spot maybe one: Nick Green. And the Sox are kind of stuck with needing to make a decision in the next week and a half as to whether Lowrie can take over the rest of the way, so an upgrade at SS is tricky.
The bench after Baldelli is fairly weak at the moment, but you can say that about pretty much any team. The Yankees bench after Melky and perhaps Hinske is just as poor. The Sox could probably use another bat, but unless it’s someone like Gonzalez (who I think is an unrealistic target), I don’t think that need is worth giving up much to address. Nick Johnson would fit in okay in the short term, but I think the Nats will want more than a surplus bullpen arm and a middling prospect for him. And he could get hurt the day after he’s acquired. The Sox are looking at four or five potential holes to address in the off-season, so I’d rather they save their best chips for the winter.
Lastly, I couldn’t disagree more with your criticism of the pitching. The bullpen is arguably the best in baseball; it’s certainly the deepest Sox pen I can remember. The rotation does fall off a bit after Beckster, but I feel reasonably confident that at least two playoff-caliber starters will emerge from the six-strong troupe of kids (Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson) and old guys (Wakefield, Penny, Smoltz) the Sox have to choose from.
Mike Lowell. The FO was willing to move him over the offseason (and probably eat a large chunk of his contract), and I don't see him contributing much. If there is literally no market for him then his lack of mobility alone should warrant him being stashed on the DL for the rest of the season. Get a stopgap for the rest of the year and you still have him for next year...
This is probably the most important question in this entire thread. I'm going to throw out "brainwashed fanboys" for nomination.
The Yankees look about as good as the Red Sox, as they did at the beginning of the season, as they did at the end of May, as they did at the All-Star break.
The Colostomy Bags. They're pissing their pants too, they just hide it better.
If my team featured a strong bullpen and the holes that the Sox have, I'd want my front office to get on the horn and make it better for the stretch run.
Yes, I think that. My opinion is that Burnett is on the way up, and his overall FIP is about as predictive of future results as is Ortiz's .224.
If you look at Melky/Gardner as one spot, I'm inclined to think that there are zero replacement-level performers offensively for the Yanks. Swisher has on-base skills, and the Yanks have the best offensive infield in the game.
If we're comparing the teams starter-to-starter, I think that Joba is much better than whoever you'd be interested in declaring is the Sox #4.
Varitek, Drew and Lowell all have an OPS over .800 with Varitek having a decent July (.788) and Lowell something like 6 for 14 since coming back. Drew's been horrible for a couple of weeks but I don't think he's suddenly lost it. Ellsbury's around a .730 OPS which seems awfully high for replacement level when you factor in his base running.
I'm optimistic about Lowrie though I'll concede that until he proves otherwise that's a sticking point.
So dumb.
The Red Sox aren't in position to improve their hitting. The one thing they might look into is SS, if Jed Lowrie is in fact unable to recover from wrist surgery this year - but then the upgrade would merely be to get a 90 OPS+ bat in the lineup to replace a 70. That's a real improvement, worth something in a pennant race, but it's, well, not the dramatic thing people seem to be wishing for.
To go at this from a different angle, here's where hte Sox are set:
LF, CF, RF, C, 2B, DH, SP1, SP2, entire bullpen, one of 1B/3B, and they've got a bunch of pitchers to work out for the remaining starting slots
At third base, they need to observe Mike Lowell and see if he can still play on a bum hip. My observation since he's come back is that Mike Lowell is still a good hitter, but he's going to cost the team runs on the bases and in the field that make 3B a spot to upgrade. They could do this either by going after a Scott Rolen, or by looking for a 1B and shifting Youks over to third.
At SS, they need to observe Jed Lowrie and see if he can hit. If he can't, they need to get some passable SS in the OC style.
In the starting rotation, they need to observe Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and Clay Buchholz, and see whether they think these guys are good. Penny and Smoltz both have very good component numbers (4.21 and 3.55 FIP, respectively), but have not been able to translate that into run prevention so far. The Sox need to watch them pitch and figure out what they've got. Same with Buchholz and the MLEs.
The problem for the Red Sox, and the fascinating thing about this deadline, is that stats aren't really going to help much. All of Penny, Smoltz, Lowell, and Lowrie have solid enough projected production, but all of them have been significantly injured and may well be at a qualitatively different level of expected production right now. The Sox need to observe them and make some tough decisions.
I don't know which are the right calls to make. My general observation is that Smoltz is going to be just fine, and even has a very good shot at being the #3 starter in the playoffs. I worry about Penny - he's really just a two-pitch guy, and I think he's going to have trouble getting through the order a third time. I think the Sox should be in the mix for both a third baseman and a shortstop - not great players, because those aren't out there, but I think they need at least one backup plan for Lowell and Lowrie. I like Freddy Sanchez, fwiw.
Obviously it's a well-run organization, but that seems like putting a guy on the DL just to see if injury comebackers and/or young pitchers can handle the load in the middle of a somewhat tight race for the playoffs is, well, stupid. Do people really think that Wakefield could be starting, effectively, today?
Tim Wakefield's age, 2009: old
Wakefield was on pace this year to throw over 200 innings. He needs a couple weeks off, because he's very old and has old man problems. The Red Sox aren't just sitting Wakefield to showcase other players, they're sitting Wakefield because he needs to sit if he's going to help the team down the stretch and, hopefully, in the playoffs.
I'm skeptical that Wakefield's had a brand new injury, but I don't doubt for a second that he needs some time off. I think this happened to be a good time to find some (needed) time off for Wakefield.
I don't know. I suspect it's preventitive as much as anything else. The Sox currently have all five non-Wakefield starters healthy and have two off days between now and Wake's return so this is a pretty good spot for a move of that nature. I'm guessing it's one of those deals where Wake felt something pull and the Sox figured "hey, let's take this as our opportunity to make a move."
This literally means that they could release outright their shortstop, third baseman, designated hitter, right fielder, and center fielder, and their team wouldn't be any worse, right? I am just trying to understand what you really mean by "replacement-level".
Do you expect us to take you seriously after you write this?
i want to say it again, after what matt clement of alexandria said: we can make marginal improvements to the team, but the cost will not be marginal.
call us the 07ers
rejoice, 07ers . . . the offense is fixed!
That is pronounced Aught-Seveners, correct Nate?
It better be. Great work, Nate.
Erik, I usually respect your opinion, but this is ####### retarded.
sounds good to me
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