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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Patriot: The Audacity of OPS

I should also make it clear before I start: OPS is not a bad statistic. It certainly beats the pants off of looking at the triple crown stats, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with using OPS for quick comparisons or for studies involving large groups of players, or any such thing. But I do believe it is important to keep in mind what OPS is and is not--it is a decent, quick way to evaluate a hitter. But it is not a stat denoted in any sort of useful unit or estimated unit; it is not a stat that was constructed based on a theory about how runs are scored; and it is not a stat that you should go out of your way to use if you have other alternatives available.

Which means...Marcus Hayes was right all along!

Repoz Posted: August 21, 2007 at 03:12 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetrics

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   1. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: August 21, 2007 at 03:40 AM (#2493193)
Let’s call OPS/LgOPS “SOPS+” for “straight OPS” plus. People think that OPS+ is SOPS+, and it is not.
...
To me, it is a parody of sabermetrics when people complain about OPS+ not being SOPS+, for any reason other then the confusion caused by its name.


Are there people complaining about that somewhere? I'm sure Patriot has someone in mind, but I've never seen that complaint, which sounds pretty silly to me, for the reasons he states.
   2. Srul Itza At Home Posted: August 21, 2007 at 04:37 AM (#2493204)
Are there people complaining about that somewhere?

I have never heard anyone complain about it. There may be some surprise, but for the kind of people who use OPS+ in the first place, the fact that it is more accurate by giving greater weight to OBP is a benefit, not a detriment.'

I also disagree that slugging percentage is not a fundamental baseball measurement. It is not as good as Isolated Power -- but then again, Branch Rickey knew that as far back as 1954, but it is a useful measure.

I also liked this comment by him: " If somebody asks you, “How do you know that just adding them together weights them properly?”, how do you respond?" We all respond the same way: We know for a fact that it does not weigh them properly. OBA should have greater weight. But it is sufficient for the purpose.
   3. Sam Hutcheson Posted: August 21, 2007 at 05:37 AM (#2493208)
And the mad dash over the cliffs of false precision continues apace.
   4. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: August 21, 2007 at 07:28 AM (#2493221)
Some people are really shocked to learn that OPS+ is calculated as OBA/LgOBA + SLG/LgSLG - 1

I'm having a lot of trouble dealing with that, yes. I may head straight to the bar today and not check in at the office at all.
   5. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: August 21, 2007 at 08:18 AM (#2493235)
Give me Total Average or give me death!
   6. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: August 21, 2007 at 08:24 AM (#2493239)
Some people are really shocked to learn that OPS+ is calculated as OBA/LgOBA + SLG/LgSLG - 1.

I was way more shocked when I heard Elvis died, but maybe that was just me.
   7. Neil Kinnock...Lord Palmerston! (Orinoco) Posted: August 21, 2007 at 08:43 AM (#2493253)
Why don't we use SLOP+?

When I first read on baseball it took me a long time to understand why people add SLG and OBA together. Turns out there was very little logic behind it. It's convenient because it was easier to do addition between two rate stats, something you can do in your head. In comparision SLGxOBA is more logical, albeit complicated (multiplication), method.

However, when it comes to OPS+, we are already presuming division, which you can't do in your head. Since we have to use a calculator or a computer, why don't we use , say, SLOP/league SLOP for total offensive evaluation. Does such a stat exist?
   8. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: August 21, 2007 at 09:19 AM (#2493283)
It's SLOB, not SLOP. The one thing that I like about OPS is that you can divide it by 3 and get a quick and dirty EQA, which has the same benchmarks as batting average.
   9. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 21, 2007 at 11:14 AM (#2493374)
Are there people complaining about that somewhere?

There are complaints that an 80 OPS+ is not "20% worse" than a 100 OPS+.

The one thing that I like about OPS is that you can divide it by 3 and get a quick and dirty EQA, which has the same benchmarks as batting average.

I don't see the point of trying to align it to give similar "benchmarks" as BA.
   10. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: August 21, 2007 at 11:19 AM (#2493379)
I don't see the point of trying to align it to give similar "benchmarks" as BA.


Because I'm old and I remember "knowing" that a .300 BA was a sign of a good season, .250 or .260 was average, and .200 was Mario Mendoza territory.
   11. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: August 21, 2007 at 11:25 AM (#2493383)
Now if you asked me what the benchmarks for VORP and WARP are, I'd be lost.
   12. Toolsy McClutch Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:07 PM (#2493418)
I don't see the point of trying to align it to give similar "benchmarks" as BA.


EWK is really Gleeman in disguise! Random multipliers!
   13. McCoy Posted: August 21, 2007 at 01:11 PM (#2493495)
Are there people complaining about that somewhere?

there is actually people complaining about that. It is usually stat newbies or people who have little or no intention of learning about stats beyond HR, AVG, and RBI.

Patriot ran into them the other day in this thread, causing him to probably write this "rant".
   14. rdfc Posted: August 21, 2007 at 04:02 PM (#2493729)
Yes, there are unfortunately a few people complaining about this; half of this year's SABR statistical committee was wasted by dealing with such a complaint (while the other half was wasted by someone's new statistic that counts bases). We really need to get past this rather pointless discussion, however.

And SLOB (or whatever you want to call it) is not really better than OPS on an individual level; it's just much better on a team level. If you want to compare teams, I'm sure Adjusted SLOB would be better than Adjusted OPS, but I doubt there's much of a difference when it comes to rating individual players.

Plus, Adjusted OPS was invented by Pete Palmer in the 1970s, so it's been around for 30 years.
   15. Principal Blackman Posted: August 21, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2494519)
Audacity! Hubris! Overweening pride!
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