Would Dawson's movement be the most successful since he is actually in the Hall and Bert isn't?

I think Bagwell makes it in. He's got the Kirby Puckett thing going - full career with one team outside of a major media market. Well respected as a leader. Would have hit 500 homers if he had been healthy enough to play out the string, just like Kirby would have had 3000 hits but nobody held that against him.

If he falls short it will show how many writers think he's an uncaught steroid cheat.

AROM Posted: July 28, 2010 at 09:33 AM (#3601366)


If he falls short it will show how many writers think he's an uncaught steroid cheat.

THIS!!!

because mostly too many people are convinced that a fairly small sized baseball player can't hit home runs in the astrosdome (ignoring jimmy winn, of course) and because of the silliness of how "big" he got (because of the silly lies the teams put down about a player's height and weight)

baggy is the ONLY 1B to ever have a 30/30 seaeson, let alone 2. he wasn't just a mcgwire type, but a genuine 5 tool guy. and he didn't get near as many gold gloves as he should have because the writers were in LUUUUVVVVV with mark effing grace

the good thing about baggy though is that he isn't on any "list" we know of and no one on the astros was a known roider (no one cares about richard hidalgo who also wasn't on any list) AND that he retired before frank thomas, so he MIGHT could have a chance. i HOPE

Bagwell's encyclopedia entry looks like Heilmann or Hornsby or somebody like that escaped from the 1920s and set up shop in the Astrodome. His peak totals are so fabulous, in the context of a respectably long career, that I have to think he's in without too much delay. He's like Larry Walker with another 1,500 plate appearances to the good.

I think Bagwell makes it in.

First try? Or just eventually?

I think he'll get in eventually but I think I'll be a little surprised if he sails in this year. (Even though he should.)

the good thing about baggy though is that he isn't on any "list" we know of and no one on the astros was a known roider (no one cares about richard hidalgo who also wasn't on any list) AND that he retired before frank thomas, so he MIGHT could have a chance. i HOPE

Caminiti was on the Astros for 8 years...

Wasn't Nolan Ryan an Astro too?

I think Bagwell makes it in.

First try? Or just eventually?

I think he'll get in eventually but I think I'll be a little surprised if he sails in this year. (Even though he should.)

I'll be surprised if he sails in this year, but I'd be even more surprised if he's on the ballot for more than 5 years. His peak years are just too good, his prime is long, he stole bases, played good defense, won an MVP (A 0.750 SLG in the AstroDome?), played only for a single franchise, and (possibly most importantly) will always be associated with the winning side in one of most lopsided trades ever, so there's a nice story to go with his stats.

CHB says he'll vote for him, but only if Larry Andersen gets to make the introduction.

5. To some extent, Bagwell is associated with poor post-season performances, compiling a .226/.364/.321 line.

Unfortunato, I've seen this mentioned by a voter or two.

Bagwell has a lot of un-SABR things going for him, even with the relatively short career. 400 HR, 5 postseasons, a fair amount of black ink, 1 MVP award, and in his peak from 1994-2000 he was easily one of the best 3-4 players in the NL.

Probably won't be first ballot (because he doesn't have the 500 HR), but he'll start off with a solid 45-55%.

I can't get a sense of Bagwell. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets 60% of the vote the first time out and I wouldn't be shocked if he comes in at Tim Raines numbers either. I think he clearly belongs but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him have to wait quite awhile.

no one on the astros was a known roider

Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte....

400 HR, 5 postseasons, a fair amount of black ink, 1 MVP award

I don't think this is the positive that it should be for a lot of voters. Thinking like a lot of the voters I think the 400 HR are devlaued for era, the 5 post-seasons lose something to his performance in those post-seasons and the MVP award was in a strike year. I think a lot of folks are going to look at him as a "likely" steroid guy too.

I think the main thing Bags has going for him is it's hard to look at his numbers, from either a SABR or old school perspective, without your first reaction being "wow, that guy was awesome."

The old school type may start to then see things like "well, didn't get 500 HR, only the 4 all star games, I'm not sure if he wasn't on steroids, etc." But I think the first reaction will get him a good nucleus of support from the get go.

I, too, lack confidence that I know where Bags will rate. I would vote for him myself in a heartbeat, and I will vote for him for the HoM if it's still operating. But, are you sure he wasn't just another slugger in a slugging era? In the 'roids era? Even if he didn't do 'roids himself, it seems that some people don't care. It was the 'roids era.

I agree that he is pretty equivalent to Timmie Raines, and if the BWA can boot Raines they can boot Bags.

He's got the Kirby Puckett thing going - full career with one team outside of a major media market.

How's Houston not a major market?

1994-2000 he was easily one of the best 3-4 players in the NL.

In the age of FA, interleague, and interleague trades that distinction means a hell of a lot less than it used too.

But sticking to its parameters:
Barry Bonds
Greg Maddux
Mike Piazza

and then of course some players are hurt because the filter is setup to favor Bagwell the most. Players like Glavine or Sosa or McGwire or Chipper Jones and such.

Near the end of a post on Bert Blyleven yesterday, I wrote that I think Bagwell will be a first-ballot pick.

He has the numbers for Cooperstown and the fact he's becoming eligible the same year as Rafael Palmeiro should help his cause, not hurt it. Bagwell looks like a saint compared to Palmeiro, and the writers are going to need someone to fill the void. I suspect they'll induct Blyleven, but it's hard to believe he'd be the only member of next year's class. They may need a hitter, too.

And just think of the editorials that will be written after Palmeiro debuts with about 30 percent of the BBWAA vote....

His average (162G) season was .297/34/115, he played more than 150 games 11 times, he has a ROY, GG and MVP.

His average peak season was .308/39/129.

He also has single team, buddy-buddy killer b, lopsided trade and catastrophic injury storyline credit.

Even by the dumbest of standards I don't see him having that much trouble getting in.

I suspect they'll induct Blyleven, but it's hard to believe he'd be the only member of next year's class. They may need a hitter, too.

Alomar's going in too.

Whatever brave soul launches this campaign in anticipation of the next vote, I sure hope there's plenty of preemptive outrage.

the good thing about baggy though is that he isn't on any "list" we know of and no one on the astros was a known roider (no one cares about richard hidalgo who also wasn't on any list) AND that he retired before frank thomas, so he MIGHT could have a chance. i HOPE

Let me preface this by saying that Jeff Bagwell is an obvious Hall-of-Famer. Depending on what you think of 19th-century baseball, he has a very strong argument as the best first baseman in National League history (assuming you treat Musial as an outfielder, I guess). Personally, I also don't view PED use as a HOF disqualifier, and even if I did, I would want to have something more definitive than a single random person pointing at somebody and saying, "He did it".

But that said, if the subject is how Bagwell will do in BBWAA voting, it's worth noting that Bagwell has been named as a steroid user by a Houston-area steroid dealer who claimed that he supplied PEDs to Bagwell, Clemens, and Pettitte, while the three of them were teammates on the Astros. This came out after Bagwell was retired and was reported by a NY paper, so I think it flew a little bit under the radar with respect to Bagwell, but it's out there.

Ignoring steroids, I would have guessed that Bagwell would debut somewhere around 50% and be inducted within three years. I think his first-year total will tell us a fair bit about how much his vote is being held down because of steroids.

When I saw the title, I assumed the article would be about Bobby Grich, who has the highest WAR of anyone on this December's VC ballot.

As for Bagwell, no chance for 1st ballot election. No Magic numbers, plus a healthy percentage of voters will take a "wait and see" attitude regarding possible PED use. The BBWAA will get him sometime down the road, barring any heated rumors.

I think Alomar has the best chance of joining Blyleven in the class of 2011.

no one on the astros was a known roider

Does brimstone count as a PED? If so ...

I think the only thing that could keep him out is steroids. I had not heard any accusations until now. In terms of both career value and peak value he seems like a definite Hall of Famer.

Among 1B men, he his 15th in career hits, and 6th in HRs, TB, and RBI.

Here are some Win Shares data. League rank in parantheses

1994-30(1)
1995-20
1996-41(1)
1997-32(5)
1998-29(T10)
1999-37(1)
2000-25
2001-30(T8)

With 20 being an all-star season and 30 being an MVP season, it seems pretty clear to me that this was an outstanding run, especially with 3 1st place finishes in 6 years, with the other 3 years being very good, too.

In batting wins + fielding wins from Retrosheet, he was 1st in 1994 & 1999, 3rd in 1996 and 4th in 1997. Sean Smith has him at 35th all-time in WAR. Here is how he did in offensive winning pct from 1994-99

1994 NL 1ST .853
1995 NL 6TH .708
1996 NL 3RD .796
1997 NL 4TH .774
1998 NL 6TH .734
1999 NL 3RD .753

caminiti's substance problem when he was with the astros was alcohol and lots of it. he didn't start using until he left the team and went to san diego

pettitte and clemens came to houston in 04, baggy's actual last season (yeah, i know he hung around for 05, but he didn't do real too much)

and the report about the gym guy supplying roids has long since been debunked

now mind, i am not saying baggy couldn't have used roids, but he would have had to have started them the winter before he came to houston to explain the - how could he hit homers in the Dome? problem that bugs so many people who refuse to acknowledge the existence of jimmy winn

oh yeah - both he and biggio were TEH SUKC in every postseason they played in - and i refuse to agree that 6 years is a small sample size

IF the writers don't think he's dirty, i think he's got a fair chance of getting in, seeing as how he was a genuine 5 tool guy for years (and has the same team thingy going for him)

forgot that palmeiro is also up for election
hopefully, that MAY help baggy get in

as for accusations, bryant gumbel accused him right out. far as i know, he's the only one who has. and gumbel didn't have any "reporting" by the way, just said that baggy should confessed - based on no evidence except that he is a guy who played between 1990 and 2004 and hit more than a couple of HRs

As for Bagwell, no chance for 1st ballot election. No Magic numbers, plus a healthy percentage of voters will take a "wait and see" attitude regarding possible PED use. The BBWAA will get him sometime down the road, barring any heated rumors.

I think 1500 RBI and 1500 R are pretty close to "magic numbers," and Bagwell has both.

Here is the complete list of eligible players with over 1500 RBI not in the HOF:

Palmeiro
Baines
McGriff

Here is the complete list of eligible players with over 1500 runs not in the HOF:

Palmeiro
Jimmy Ryan
Bill Dahlen
Raines
Tom Brown
Roberto Alomar

The only player on both lists is Palmeiro, and without the PED controversy, he'd have sailed into the HOF.

Would Dawson's movement be the most successful since he is actually in the Hall and Bert isn't?

The reference is actually to the movement for Raines, endorsed by Dawson. Attracting some attention, but not yet as successful as Blyleven's, which hasn't gotten him in but has swayed a number of voters.

I think Bags definitely belongs, but I can see this argument from some of the lesser journalists:

Not only is he a steroid cheat, but he and his buddies are playoff chokers.

Although I would like Bagwell to get in on the first ballot, I would actually prefer his induction to be delayed so he goes in with Frank Thomas. Same birthday and year, same induction year.

The reference is actually to the movement for Raines, endorsed by Dawson. Attracting some attention, but not yet as successful as Blyleven's, which hasn't gotten him in but has swayed a number of voters.

Well, it started later (for obvious reasons). I think it will take Timmy fewer years on the ballot to get in than it took Bert.

The article asks whether Frank Thomas should be denied entry to the HOF because he played in the steroid era. Although it is ordinarily rash to make categorical statements about someone that you have never met, I would be shocked beyond belief if Thomas ever came up dirty. In fact, my enduring image of Thomas is that he felt his accomplishments were demeaned because he was that big and powerful naturally, while others took PEDs to generate their power.

It would be irony of the highest order if Frank Thomas was not a first ballot Hall of Famer because of generalized PED suspicions.

[28]

I think 1500 RBI and 1500 R are pretty close to "magic numbers," and Bagwell has both.

Well, they're numbers but they aren't "magic" in the minds of the voters. People don't put much stock in runs scored, because they're seen mainly as someone else doing the "clutch" work of driving you in.

As for 1500 RBI, it's not as special as it once was. Here are the RBI leaders for players debuting in 1985 or later.

baggy is the ONLY 1B to ever have a 30/30 seaeson, let alone 2.

Joe Carter mainly played first base in his 30/30 season.

I think Bagwell makes it in. He's got the Kirby Puckett thing going

I don't think the injury context is the same, though. Puckett woke up one morning, could not see right, and his career came to a sudden and unexpected end. Walker had a shoulder injury that got worse over time, and he tried to play for a while, and then could not keep going.

I think people extrapolated a lot more for Puckett than they will for Bagwell -- who should go in on his own merits.

I liked Graham's article linked here on Blyleven.

Regarding, Bagwell, I definitely think of him as a HOFer. The numbers/skill have been well covered here, but I would add:
-He was highly recognizable for many reasons, including that he was a good interview, used a unique batting stance, and had a really funny beard for a while.
-He was an absolute monster on every video game on which he appeared.
-He was one the late 90s fantasy gods because he gave you precious SB at a position that didn't offer them.
-As a kid who marveled at baseball cards in the early 90s, his 1994 season was one that jumped off the page. I remember it in the same category as a couple of Frank Thomas' seasons in that era, as well as Greg Maddux.

None of these are reasons he ought to be in the HOF, but I think they could all play in his favor in a potential voter's mind.

Depending on what you think of 19th-century baseball, he has a very strong argument as the best first baseman in National League history

Pujols actually is just above Bagwell in WAR on BB-REF.

Pujols actually is just above Bagwell in WAR on BB-REF.

Yeah, but he hasn't hit his decline phase yet.

"Rich Lederer’s tireless campaign for Bert Blyleven is the most prominent (and successful), and the Tim Raines group of Jonah Keri, Nate Sager, Tango Tiger, and the late John Brattain has put together a website for their now Andre Dawson-endorsed cause."

Has anyone ever lobbied for Bill Dahlen? I presume the rules prohibit the VC from electing him. Although his "peak" is nothing sexy, I don't understand why Dahlen was never enshrined. He had a long career (20 seasons), was a good hitter, and played over 2,000 games at shortstop. Here are the top 15 shortstops at WAR, counting only those shortstops who played 1,100 or more games at that position:

1 Honus Wagner 134.5
2 Alex Rodriguez 101.2
3 George Davis 90.7
4 Cal Ripken 89.9
5 Robin Yount 76.9
6 Bill Dahlen 75.9
7 Arky Vaughan 75.6
8 Derek Jeter 69.9
9 Luke Appling 69.3
10 Barry Larkin 68.9
11 Alan Trammell 66.9
12 Pee Wee Reese 66.7
13 Ernie Banks 64.4
14 Joe Cronin 62.5
15 Bobby Wallace 60.5

Everyone on this list but Dahlen is either enshrined, on the current ballot or not yet eligible.

Pujols actually is just above Bagwell in WAR on BB-REF.


Yeah, but he hasn't hit his decline phase yet.

Ok, but WAR is a counting stat, so unless you think Albert's decline phase is going to include a number of below replacement level years...

double post

I made a case for Dahlen at

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/1/8/20133/13493

There was a period of a few years in which the VC was open to being advised by serious historical researchers about 19th Century players, and inducted a steady stream of well-considered suggestions. Maybe it was one particular Hall of Fame employee who was providing them with the information? Someone remind me of that. The last of the players so considered to make it was George Davis, and then that particular process stopped for whatever institutional reason. To stop there - to draw the line in the infinitesimally narrow space between Davis and Dahlen - seems particularly unfortunate.

CYRIL: "I made a case for Dahlen ..."

As one would say in Cyrillic:

Это был прекрасный колонки, Кирилл.

(In case you don't read Russian, copy this into the Google Translate program and it will come back in English.)

I guess I will have to take that as a compliment since the third word seems to mean beautiful or well done, according to a google search.

Okay, I tried that. Thanks

Two closely matched contemporary pairs of shortstops: in one case, Davis and Dahlen; in the other case, Alan Trammell and Ozzie Smith. In both cases, a better hitter versus a better fielder. In both pairs, the version of WAR that Rich has been quoting tilts pretty strongly towards the hitter (Davis and Trammell); I personally think that both pairs are a lot closer together than that, nearly tied. The Hall of Fame has only one of each pair, splitting in different directions on the offense/defense question. Davis (the hitter) is in, but not Dahlen. Smith (the fielder) is in, but not Trammell. Of course, Smith and Dahlen could hit, too, and Davis and Trammell could field.

All four should be in the Hall of Fame.

Cyril,

I wrote, "That was an excellent column, Cyril." Then, using Google, I translated that into the Cyrillic script (Russian) and now when I translate it back into English I get:

"This was an excellent speaker, Cyril."

No wonder there are wars. Мы начнем сбрасывая бомбы на вас в пять минут, г-н Горбачев.

I think once I put a sentence into a translator, then got the tranlation, had it translate it back to English, then kept going back and forth and it kept chaning all the time. But it turns out we did not need to drop any bombs.

and the report about the gym guy supplying roids has long since been debunked

John Feinstein says Wink wink nudge nudge say no more say no more

@34: Those top-12 RBI players are all legitimate HOFers, with the possible exception of McGriff. Most of them are easy HOFers (or would be without a steroid discount).

baggy is the ONLY 1B to ever have a 30/30 seaeson, let alone 2. he wasn't just a mcgwire type, but a genuine 5 tool guy.

Why would a "genuine five tool guy" be playing first base?

I don't mean this as a slight against Bagwell or against his HoF bid. It just strikes me as a strange concept. Why would a guy who's very fast, an excellent fielder, with a great throwing arm be playing first base? Really, why?

will

because when he came to the astros, he was a 3B and a very good one, but we already had ken caminiti, an excellent 3B and we needed a 1B, so hey presto, baggy is a 1B - and he hit like one in spite of his small size, so there he stayed, even after we traded cammy to SD

You know how you know for sure Jeff Bagwell is a HOFer? How you know Bags was first rate? How you know he ate at the finest restaurants? This. Yeah, sure, she divorced him. But that is clearly Hall of Fame talent. And she is good on Stern.

Why would a guy who's very fast, an excellent fielder, with a great throwing arm be playing first base? Really, why?

Because the NL doesn't have the DH.

I think once I put a sentence into a translator, then got the tranlation, had it translate it back to English, then kept going back and forth and it kept chaning all the time. But it turns out we did not need to drop any bombs.

Looks like we need to revive the Party.

Very funny. That is the kind of thing that happened to me. Are we talking about Kodos the executioner who changed his name and became a Shakespearan actor?