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Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Wall Street Journal: Sultan of Stats

Steroids and Scouts v. Statheads with Bill James. Get your flame-retardant suit ready!

“People think they understand how to win in baseball much more than they really do,” Mr. James says. This is true of the statisticians as much as it is of traditional scouts. While “Moneyball” treats scouts and analysts as at odds, Mr. James says he learns from the scouts all the time. “The scouts see a lot of things that I can’t see. And some of the things they see I have learned to see. But some of the things they see I can’t see at all. And I’m not suggesting it’s not real, it’s just that I can’t see it,” he says. “There is no reason for there to be a conflict. The conflict exists only when people think they know more than they do.”

Chris Needham Posted: June 20, 2007 at 10:51 AM | 6 comment(s)
Related News: General, Boston

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1. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: June 20, 2007 at 11:56 AM (#2410787)

There's nothing especially exciting in the article but I thought the drawing of James at the bottom of the page made reading it worthwhile.

2. villageidiom Posted: June 20, 2007 at 12:14 PM (#2410823)

"I see it as being my job to ensure as much as I can that we act on the basis of actual evidence."

I've paraphrased Bill James many times, but this is the first time I think he's paraphrased me.

3. scotto Posted: June 20, 2007 at 12:16 PM (#2410827)

I submitted this link as well, and went with that quote. I almost went with the paragraph before it.

His theory on baseball and steroids may or may not be odd, but it is certainly not in vogue. "I don't know," he says, when asked if steroids account for the surge in home runs in the late 1990s. "Speaking globally . . . the reality is that there are many changes in the game which could cause batting numbers to jump. And no one really knows to what extent the increase is a consequence of steroids. I strongly suspect that the influence of steroids on hitting numbers is greatly overstated by the public." Other factors include ballpark dimensions and bat design. "I've never understood why nobody writes about it, but the bats are very different now than they were 20 years ago," Mr. James says, with different woods and finishes. "[Barry] Bonds's bats are still different from everybody else's," he notes.

4. JPWF13 Posted: June 20, 2007 at 12:38 PM (#2410851)

"I've never understood why nobody writes about it, but the bats are very different now than they were 20 years ago,"

Because that's not a scandal.
If the Bonds haters Maris/Aaron lovers) didn't have the steroid issue to bring up they'd certainly be complaining about the switch from ash baseball bats to hickory and maple, expansion and Coors Field...

5. Toolsy McClutch Posted: June 20, 2007 at 03:06 PM (#2410994)

Personally, having met the man briefly for a couple times at the SABR conference in T., I would not want to #### with that man. He looks gentle, he could dunk on me. Repeatedly. Easily.

That and the fact that he signed a baseball for my son makes him cool in my book.

6. Squash Posted: June 20, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2410995)

The conflict exists only when people think they know more than they do.

Actually, the conflict only exists when you have thousands of people chasing hundreds of jobs in baseball.

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Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Wall Street Journal: Sultan of Stats

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