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Monday, December 03, 2007

WaPo blog: Elijah Dukes to Nationals? (RR)

Dave Sheinin just confirmed what I’ve been trying to for the last couple hours—that troubled Tampa Bay outfielder Elijah Dukes has been dealt to the Washington Nationals.

We do not yet know who was dealt in return.

AP: Rays trade outfielder Elijah Dukes to Nationals

The Tampa Bay Rays traded another troubled outfielder Monday, sending Elijah Dukes to the Washington Nationals for minor league pitcher Glenn Gibson.

NTNgod Posted: December 03, 2007 at 03:11 PM | 102 comment(s)
Related News: General, Tampa Bay, Washington

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1. Miss Remember Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:14 PM (#2632643)

Milledge and Dukes oh my.

2. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:14 PM (#2632644)

We do not yet know who was dealt in return.

Ike Turner?

3. npurcell Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2632648)

Its probably not much. Nats system is pretty barren except for their recent draftees and those guys can't be traded yet anyways.

4. Better Schafer than Sorry Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2632653)

As I opined in the Dugout, probably going to be a reliever. Someone like Saul Rivera

5. Raskolnikov Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:20 PM (#2632655)

Milledge and Dukes are not similar personality wise. Maybe if Bowden had gotten Dukes a few days earlier, the disaster could have been avoided.

6. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2632659)

If that's all he gave up, then WOW. Bowden has easily had the best winter so far of any GM. He's added two young, talented outfielders with tremendous upside while giving up nothing significant of value. Very impressive.

7. NJ likes the people, the books, hates the format. Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:23 PM (#2632660)

Milledge and Dukes oh my.

This has come up in two threads already, but please stop this. I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic, if so, my apologies.

8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:27 PM (#2632669)

"Ike Turner?"

That could work. Do they have an organ at the Trop?

9. The Essex Snead Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:27 PM (#2632670)

I can't wait until Don Imus gets his dentures around this.

10. Chris Needham Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:33 PM (#2632674)

New post on the Post blog says it's a PTBNL-type deal.

Apparently nobody of consequence -- not that the Nats have many of those anyway.

11. Esoteric can feel Strasburg slowly slipping away Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:33 PM (#2632676)

Well, on pure talent terms this is a good acquisition, I suppose. Can't fault Jimbo for biting on Dukes if the only thing he had to give up was a PTBNL.

But dammit, Dukes is rotten, rotten to the core. He can't be saved, can't be rehabilitated. And yeah, I know that's pretty judgmental of me...but this guy ain't exactly Dmitri Young (a decent guy who did one terrible thing and who has openly acknowledged that he'll do penance for it for a long time to come). This guy is poison. He's everything Milledge was wrongly characterized as being, and worse.

Additionally, our outfield looks pretty much set for next year, with Pena/Milledge/Kearns.

If Dukes is a trading chip, then okay. But I seriously can't see him becoming a good teammate any time in the near future. And parents in the DC Metro area better start locking their teenage daughters up.

12. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:39 PM (#2632685)

And parents in the DC Metro area better start locking their teenage daughters up.

If they're living anywhere near DC, my guess is that they already do so.

As for your other points... Dukes is has world of talent and they're giving up nothing (apparently) to get him. IMHO, he's well worth the risk for almost any ballclub, but certainly one that is a few years away from seriously contending.

13. Prostetnic Vogon Steve Jeltz (Dan Lee) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:39 PM (#2632686)

parents in the DC Metro area better start locking their teenage daughters up.

You aren't kidding. And if Albert Dukes somehow ends up catching on with the Redskins, they may need to think about locking up their preteen daughters too.

I've never met them, I have no first-hand knowledge of their behavior, but it sure looks like these two Dukes boys ain't exactly Bo and Luke. Or even Coy and Vance.

14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2632689)

But dammit, Dukes is rotten, rotten to the core. He can't be saved, can't be rehabilitated. And yeah, I know that's pretty judgmental of me.

I don't really feel like debating morality, but I think the base issue here isn't whether you're being judgmental, but whether your judgment is correct. Bowden has clearly decided that it's worth the risk to see whether Dukes can be rehabilitated. I don't know whether he's right, but I just wanted to say that clearly someone, who surely has better information on Dukes than you do, thinks you're wrong about Dukes.

And I want to add my voice to the chorus that the linking of Milledge to Dukes is both meritless and clearly caused by their shared race rather than any shared character or history.

15. Miss Remember Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:51 PM (#2632700)

has come up in two threads already, but please stop this. I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic, if so, my apologies.

I am. Milledge isn't in the same league as Dukes. Really the only guy off the top of my head that is out of Dukes league is OJ.

16. Chris Needham Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:52 PM (#2632708)

The PTBNL would seem to indicate it's someone from the Nats 40-man, right? Else, they'd just finish the damn thing today. I guess TB really wants to make that Rule 5 pick!

17. galaxieboi Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:53 PM (#2632710)

And I want to add my voice to the chorus that the linking of Milledge to Dukes is both meritless and clearly caused by their shared race rather than any shared character or history.

I agree. Lastings gets enough warrentless s*** from sports writers without being linked to Dukes too. Just because they're both black American ballplayers doesn't make them cut from the same cloth.

18. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:53 PM (#2632713)

inking of Milledge to Dukes is both meritless and clearly caused by their shared race

say it ain't so ..
Racism in baseball .. no effing way.

19. Craig in MN Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2632717)

And yeah, I know that's pretty judgmental of me...but this guy ain't exactly Dmitri Young (a decent guy who did one terrible thing and who has openly acknowledged that he'll do penance for it for a long time to come).

I thought Dmitri was a good guy who did a couple of stupid things. It's hard to keep track of everyone's flaws so I can properly judge them. Either way, though, he seems to have bitten the bullet and straightened things around. He might be the best role model around for Dukes....he seems like a warm and genuine guy who has been through his problems and seemingly overcame them. Bowden might just be onto something here. I don't see any real attitude problem with Milledge, but if there is any problem there, I would imagine that Young could serve as a good mentor to him as well.

20. Better Schafer than Sorry Posted: December 03, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2632722)

The PTBNL would seem to indicate it's someone from the Nats 40-man, right? Else, they'd just finish the damn thing today. I guess TB really wants to make that Rule 5 pick!

How soon must the PTBNL be named? Might be someone from this year's draft, though highly unlikely.

21. haven Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:01 PM (#2632725)

It's hard to keep track of everyone's flaws so I can properly judge them.

I was thinking about using an excel spreadsheet.

22. jmurph Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:01 PM (#2632726)

Great move for the Nats. They need more of these moves this year- picking up guys that are undervalued, for whatever reason. Milledge at what appears to be a low point in his value, same for Dukes (though for a much more obvious reason with the latter). Here's to hoping Bowden can work some magic with the rotation, now.

23. NJ likes the people, the books, hates the format. Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:01 PM (#2632729)

How soon must the PTBNL be named? Might be someone from this year's draft, though highly unlikely.

I think the maximum time to name a PTBNL is 1 year, however, I also seem to remember that there can be limits under 1 year, but the teams would have to negotiate what the time limit is. I'm not sure.

24. Chris Needham Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:02 PM (#2632730)

How soon must the PTBNL be named? Might be someone from this year's draft, though highly unlikely.

If it is, I hope you guys chip in for bail money for me.

Here's to hoping Bowden can work some magic with the rotation, now.

Spoken like someone who's not seen the great Mike Bacsik pitch.

25. Jimmy P Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:09 PM (#2632739)

Where are the Nats going to play all these OF? They have Kearns, Dukes, Wily Mo, and Lastings.

26. Esoteric can feel Strasburg slowly slipping away Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:12 PM (#2632743)

Bowden is lobbying MLB to create a fourth OF position.

Given his recent run, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him pulling it off.

27. Chris Needham Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:12 PM (#2632746)

Where are the Nats going to play all these OF? They have Kearns, Dukes, Wily Mo, and Lastings.

With the way Guzman plays short, I think they're switching to a rover.

I still think that them re-flipping Milledge isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

28. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:14 PM (#2632749)

Where are the Nats going to play all these OF? They have Kearns, Dukes, Wily Mo, and Lastings.

Is Dukes MLB ready? He only hit .190 in the big leagues last year. I guess maybe that translates to .300 in the NL. But maybe he starts the year in the minors until WMP is traded?

29. Craig in MN Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2632751)

I was thinking about using an excel spreadsheet.

Yes, but you can't judge character on a spreadsheet.....all the old time baseball men say so.

30. Joey B. Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2632754)

Ugh. Milledge at least has never done anything that horrible, but I don't want to root for a lowlife dirtbag like this guy.

31. danup Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2632755)

I'll say this for Jim Bowden: he's the kind of GM almost every baseball fan would be. I'll also say this: he has some giant testicles.

Does he flip Kearns for a pitcher or is Pena/Milledge/Dukes one (three) too many question marks?

32. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2632757)

Well, the connection between Milledge and Dukes (other than race) is that they are both promising young players who were traded in part (in large part, in the case of Dukes) due to real (again Dukes) or perceived (Milledge) characters issues. IMO, Milledge seems to be a stand up guy (based on what I've seen so far, he like many players may well be a jerk) and Dukes has some very serious anger issues so I don't think it makes much sense to group them together. But, I think the Nats are exploiting the same strategy (to some extent) with both acquisitions so in that sense they can be grouped together.

More to the point though, to reiterate Jimmy P, where are these guys going to play?

They already have Dmitri Young and (possibly at some point) Nick Johnson at first so that's out. Then you have 4 guys eahc of whom really deserved the chance to play. I'm going to be ticked if Milledge and Wily Mo don't get full playing time b/c I think that they are guys who really only need playing time to develop at this poing in their careers. I realize that Wily Mo is getting up there in years but he's never really gotten the shot he deserves.

33. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2632759)

Dukes only had a .191 BABIP last season. He hit 10 homers and walked 33 times in 184 AB. He'd hit anywhere if he stays out of trouble.

34. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2632761)

How soon must the PTBNL be named? Might be someone from this year's draft, though highly unlikely.

35. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2632765)

While Dukes only hit .190 his PrOPS #'s were: .250/.365/.475 (slightly better than BJ Upton's .263/.354/.486, actually) so, IMO, he is very much ready for MLB.

36. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:25 PM (#2632766)

It's customary for trades for Rule 5 eligible players not on the 40-man at this time of year to be PTBNL deals ... he's then named shortly after Thursday's draft.

37. NJ likes the people, the books, hates the format. Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2632775)

Milledge at least has never done anything ~~that~~ horrible, but I don't want to root for a lowlife dirtbag like this guy.

Fixed.

38. Vander Wal Generator (Juan V) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:33 PM (#2632777)

I can see the Nats keeping all four outfielders at least for a while, with them telling Dukes to get his #### together or else he won't play.

39. bibigon Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2632787)

Kearns has gotta be the odd-man out, not Pena, right?

Who needs a right fielder?

40. Better Schafer than Sorry Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:40 PM (#2632789)

Players in any draft cannot be traded until one year after they sign their contract. PTBNL has to be completed within 6 months, and quite often a team takes cash instead of a player to settle the trade

What I was getting at was that if the time frame is long enough, they can wait for statutory 1 yr from the signing passes, and then trade that player. As I said, unlikely in this case, but I was wondering regarding the specifics.

Where are the Nats going to play all these OF? They have Kearns, Dukes, Wily Mo, and Lastings.

Logan, the oft injured Alex Escobar, Maxwell, Casto..

41. Belfry Bob Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2632793)

Here's to hoping Bowden can work some magic with the rotation, now.

Is Denny McLain available?

42. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:43 PM (#2632799)

More to the point though, to reiterate Jimmy P, where are these guys going to play?

Given that none of them has yet put up a full major league season that makes them an obvious must-start over the others, what's wrong with having 4 OF options? It's not like there's a ton of salary on the bench. Or

Couldn't this be akin to the approach that had Theo grabbing Giambi, Ortiz, Millar, etc. for the 2003 season, and then seeing who panned out?

43. jmurph Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:45 PM (#2632800)

Why not keep all 4, at least until July? You've got two young guys, one somewhat fragile guy, and one guy who could probably use a day off every now and then, since he's never really played a full season (Pena). What's great is that these guys can all play at multiple spots, too (though Pena should probably just be stuck in LF for good, he can play the other two in a pinch).

Furthermore, the return on OFers this fall/winter is not looking good, so there's no hurry to deal one of them off.

44. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2632804)

What's wrong is that each of these guys needs to play every day to develop. Days off is the last thing Wily Mo Pena needs.

45. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2632809)

I was thinking about using an excel spreadsheet.

Yes, but you can't judge character on a spreadsheet.....all the old time baseball men say so.

That's why you need to go a step further, to a database, to accurately capture the many-to-many relationships between "bad_character_events" and person. If you really want to go crazy, you may have to abstract person to person-role, so you can cover people like Pete Rose who commit "bad_character_events" both as player and as manager. That way you can ignore "bad_character_events" by MLB management, as the Mitchell committee will do, by filtering on the role.

46. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2632814)

Here's to hoping Bowden can work some magic with the rotation, now.

Is Denny McLain available?

Brett Myers? Bobby Chouinard? Eric Cyr?

47. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2632816)

If I were racist, I'd say something like, "Why doesn't Bowden sign Milton Bradley and complete the trifecta?"

48. aleskel Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2632819)

Elijah Dukes = Albert Belle
Lastings Milledge = Reggie Jackson

does that seem fair?

49. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:01 PM (#2632822)

If I were racist, I'd say something like, "Why doesn't Bowden sign Milton Bradley and complete the trifecta?"

The funny thing is that it would be a good cheap outfield acquired for next to nothing.

50. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2632826)

Elijah Dukes = Albert Belle
Lastings Milledge = Reggie Jackson

does that seem fair?

At least you're using legitimate math, MLB scouts would have had you arrested if you compared either guy to a white or Latino player.

51. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2632827)

If I had a team, I'd try to get every player who was widely thought to be a head case or worse. I'd love to win and rub it in with such a team. I loved last year's Tiger team, for example, with Rogers and Sheffield on it, even though it didn't work out too well.

52. NJ likes the people, the books, hates the format. Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:04 PM (#2632829)

What's wrong is that each of these guys needs to play every day to develop. Days off is the last thing Wily Mo Pena needs.

162 games*3 positions=486 games. 486 games/4 players=122games a piece. Add a few for interleague= about 125 games each. Each guy should be good for roughly 125 games in the field and 500 PAs. I think that's ample time to develop. This is without taking into consideration that Milledge and Kearns tend to get nicked up and Dukes tends to get suspended. Wily Mo will get plenty of playing time.

53. jmurph Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:07 PM (#2632837)

162 games*3 positions=486 games. 486 games/4 players=122games a piece. Add a few for interleague= about 125 games each. Each guy should be good for roughly 125 games in the field and 500 PAs. I think that's ample time to develop. This is without taking into consideration that Milledge and Kearns tend to get nicked up and Dukes tends to get suspended. Wily Mo will get plenty of playing time.

I agree with most of that. Considering the Nats have no intention to compete next year, I'd lean towards giving Pena as much time as possible to see how good he can really be, but there should still be enough room to play all 4 guys a reasonable amount, especially considering Kearns is one of the 4. And then trade Kearns in July.

54. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2632839)

Agreed with NJ. I think there are two risks here. 1) Having too many good, healthy outfielders and possibly delaying someone's development, and 2) Not having enough good, healthy outfielders. I think that (2) is far, far worse than (1), and much more likely to occur, to boot. Manny Acta is supposed to be this great manager - if he can't handle some job sharing among young players, likely only for a small portion of the season, he isn't what he's cracked up to be.

55. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2632842)

What's wrong is that each of these guys needs to play every day to develop.

I don't think that's true of Austin Kearns any more. The other three, I agree.

56. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2632843)

I would tend to think that the PTBNL is a PTBNL because Tampa's primary choice is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This way, if he's chosen by someone that way, they can take someone else instead.

57. Jim Wisinski endorses Ben Zobrist's MVP candidacy Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:11 PM (#2632846)

*fist pump*

58. Jim Wisinski endorses Ben Zobrist's MVP candidacy Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:13 PM (#2632849)

Glenn Gibson is the player.

59. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2632853)

Glenn Gibson is the player.

Gibson wouldn't be a bad get for Dukes, if Gibson's healthy.

-- MWE

60. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2632855)

2) Not having enough good, healthy outfielders. I think that (2) is far, far worse than (1), and much more likely to occur, to boot.

For a team trying to develop players you could say that #1 is worse. So what if someone's injured for a while and you have to play Langerhans or Nook Logan for a while? Hell, they're playing Dmitri Young and Felipe Lopez on the infield. IMO, if you can find an upgrade at SS or for the starting staff (or to replace Cordero who'd I'd also deal), you deal Kearns.

61. Swedish Chef Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2632860)

Milledge at least has never done anything ~~that~~ horrible, but I don't want to root for a lowlife dirtbag like this guy.

Fixed.

Remember that time when he high-fived after a HR and nearly brought down western civilization?

62. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2632861)

Link Jim? Well, at least that would make more sense than Vlad's and my conjecture - Dukes' value shouldn't have fallen *that* much.

63. Jimmy P Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2632862)

IMO, he is very much ready for MLB.

Dukes is ready. Plus, you are asking your AAA manager to quit if you send Dukes down. He wasn't well liked in Durham.

Bowden isn't flipping Lastings. First, Gammo wrote a huge piece on how Bowden is obsessed with him (much like he's obsessed with Wily Mo). Second, Lastings is the kind of guy the Nats should be keeping. Young, good, cheap. if anything, they should dump Kearns.

64. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2632865)

For a team trying to develop players you could say that #1 is worse.

Why would a team trying to develop players want to have three players with good upside instead of four?

Given the high likelihood that Dukes doesn't finish the season, given the moderate to large downside risk of Pena and moderate downside risk of Milledge, I think the chances that the Nats will have a surplus of good, healthy outfielders in June are quite low. One of them will fall off or get hurt, or Dukes could do something insane.

65. Jim Wisinski endorses Ben Zobrist's MVP candidacy Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2632866)

http://blogs.tampabay.com/rays/2007/12/dukes-to-nation.html

Both local papers reporting it on their blogs now.

66. Gaelan Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2632874)

Kearns has gotta be the odd-man out, not Pena, right?

That's crazy. Kearns is easily the best player of the four.

67. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2632875)

Why would a team trying to develop players want to have three players with good upside instead of four?

1) Kearns isn't really a "good upside" guy at this point is he? He's a good enough player but I think you know what he is as much as you do with most guys.

2) The more AB's you give to Dukes, Wily Mo and Milledge the more you find out about them and the more they develop.

Player's don't just develop magically, they have to play. Wily Mo's development has already been severely damaged, IMO, due to lost playing time over the last few years. Milledge has spent more time on the bench than a player of his age and talent ought to as well. Do they really want to see what these guys can do with every day jobs or do they want to dick around, rotate them, play the hot hand and stunt everyone's development?

68. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2632877)

"He wasn't well liked in Durham."

Ah, the fine art of understatement.

69. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2632880)

That's crazy. Kearns is easily the best player of the four.

IMO, Milledge is easily the best player of the 4. FWIW, here are their Pecota EQA projections for 2008-2011 (from before this season):

Milledge: .287, .292, 299, .294
Dukes: . 288, .287, .289, .286
Kearns: .290, .289, .291, .293
Pena: .289, .291, .290, .297

Milledge and Dukes have the most defense value, I assume and Pena has the least. Still, Pena has a lot of upside. I think Kearns has the least potential. Then again, Pena is a free agent after another season so they get the least out of developing him.

In my mind, it's pretty clear that Milledge and Dukes should play (basically) every day that they're available to play.

70. Rocco's Not-so Malfunctioning Mitochondria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:39 PM (#2632882)

Dukes is ready. Plus, you are asking your AAA manager to quit if you send Dukes down. He wasn't well liked in Durham.

More specifically, Durham publicly threatened to pull their PDA if the Rays ever let him go back to Durham again. So yea, I'd say he wasn't well liked by brass there.

He does still have two options remaining, however.

71. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2632885)

Player's don't just develop magically, they have to play. Wily Mo's development has already been severely damaged, IMO, due to lost playing time over the last few years. Milledge has spent more time on the bench than a player of his age and talent ought to as well. Do they really want to see what these guys can do with every day jobs or do they want to dick around, rotate them, play the hot hand and stunt everyone's development?

I don't disagree with this, I just think that you're overvaluing by a large amount both how risky this is and how likely it is. Players share jobs all the time, as they're breaking in to the league. It is not at all uncommon for a very good player to spend part of a season early in his career in a job-sharing arrangement. One good way of evaluating a manager is how good he is at both running a job-sharing situation and at recognizing hte superior talent and getting him in the lineup everyday. Acta can surely pull that off.

In all likelihood, he won't have to do it for long, because players get hurt, and Dukes regularly misses playing time for less conventional reasons. I think that running a four-man outfield has a much lower level of risk than you suggest.

And a 27-year-old with Kearns' tools definitely has real upside. Power continues to develop throughout a player's 20s, and Kearns was supposed to have a lot more power than he's shown so far.

72. Chris Needham Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2632886)

Milledge and Dukes have the most defense value,

Are you sure? Kearns is one of the 2 or 3 best RFers in the league. Is that more or less valuable than an average CFer?

Anyone know how Dukes is in CF?

73. Jim Wisinski endorses Ben Zobrist's MVP candidacy Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2632887)

I guess Milledge plays CF for the Nationals? I know he's viewed as having more of a future in a corner but he's the only real option for them next year.

74. Jim Wisinski endorses Ben Zobrist's MVP candidacy Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:45 PM (#2632891)

Anyone know how Dukes is in CF?

He was absolutely horrible there for the Rays. He wasn't even close to looking marginally adequate out there at any point and the stats back it up. By ESPN ZR he was -6 in only 332 defensive innings there.

75. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2632893)

Are you sure? Kearns is one of the 2 or 3 best RFers in the league. Is that more or less valuable than an average CFer?

Anyone know how Dukes is in CF?

hmmm... I didn't know that. If true, I take that back as it makes Kearns more valuable than I thought.

76. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2632895)

I guess Milledge plays CF for the Nationals? I know he's viewed as having more of a future in a corner but he's the only real option for them next year.

Milledge has spent most of his minor league career in CF and looked better there in his brief CF time with the Mets. I think it's yet to be determined whether Milledge can be solid in CF.

77. J. Cross Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2632900)

and a 27-year-old with Kearns' tools definitely has real upside. Power continues to develop throughout a player's 20s, and Kearns was supposed to have a lot more power than he's shown so far.

I'm not saying that he won't get better like any player might, I'm just saying that he's not a big upside guy for them like Milledge and Upton are, in part b/c he has two years left on his contract and would have to be resigned to be on the Nationals next winning team. I'm not saying that you throw him away for nothing and if the market for him just isn't there for him right now you could wait BUT I think that if you get fair value for him now, you take it.

78. retro-shiite Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:06 PM (#2632904)

Kearns has gotta be the odd-man out, not Pena, right?

Who needs a right fielder?

The Cubs, though they seem obsessed with getting one who hits lefthanded.

79. JoeHova Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:21 PM (#2632920)

I hate to bring this up, but wasn't Milledge accused of rape or something around the time he was drafted? I thought that's why he lasted till the Mets picked, but maybe I'm thinking of someone else.

80. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2632924)

It was only rape in the ultra-conservative context of America in the 2000s. By the way, what was the girl's genetic makeup? That could go a long way toward explaining the situation.

81. bibigon Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2632934)

Oh god, the "anytime a black player is disparaged, it's racism" police are out in force again...

82. Raskolnikov Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2632938)

I can't believe most of the BTFers are discussing Dukes as a comparable to Milledge, Kearns, and Wily Mo. Dukes is one of the least likeable players I've read about in a long time. IMHO, he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a MLB baseball field until he shows an extended period of good behavior.

This practically makes up for the Nats robbing us of Flores and Milledge. I still like the ex-Mets on that team, but the Nats have sunk to "team I would actively root against" if Dukes were to start for them.

83. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:56 PM (#2632940)

I hate to bring this up, but wasn't Milledge accused of rape or something around the time he was drafted?

Statutory rape. As best as I can remember - I can't find a clear story online - his girlfriend was 15 and her mom called the cops. There are also stories about him dating a 13-year-old when he was 16 or 17. There are no allegations of any non-consensual activity.

84. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:59 PM (#2632945)

Oh god, the "anytime a black player is disparaged, it's racism" police are out in force again...

And, the "anytime..." police police are out, as usual making no arguments whatsoever and completely misconstruing the actual claims being made. If you want to defend the comparison between Milledge and Dukes, go right ahead.

85. Crispix Attacks Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:59 PM (#2632946)

HELP! HELP! I'M BEING REPRESSED! HOW IRONIC, YOU CLAIM TO BE TOLERANT, BUT YOU'RE INTOLERANT OF MY INTOLERANCE?!

This appears to still be the truth on the Milledge accusations of statutory rape. I read elsewhere that the case was brought against him by his two-years-younger girlfriend's mother. I don't know if the girlfriend was white, though. Vaux do you have any evidence for that?

86. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2632965)

If the Nats want to part with Kearns, I'd love to see him end up with the Cubs. He'd be an upgrade defensively and offensively. He's got power, but also gets on base. He can't play second base, though, so I doubt they try to pursue him should he be put on the block.

87. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:27 PM (#2632969)

Or even Coy and Vance.

Who?

HELP! HELP! I'M BEING REPRESSED! HOW IRONIC, YOU CLAIM TO BE TOLERANT, BUT YOU'RE INTOLERANT OF MY INTOLERANCE?!

For such an intelligent poster, this is remarkably unintelligent. My sincere apologies should I have read this as mere joking. I equate that to letting an eight-grade class vote to set their exam questions in the spirit of democracy.

88. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:29 PM (#2632970)

Actually, Cripis (or -x, have I really not read something about the Boston Massacre for this long?),

I re-read your post, and your intent to amuse is pretty clear. I leave my having taken it seriously here in this thread as a monument to my stupidity.

89. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:29 PM (#2632973)

Crispix was making fun of #81.

90. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2632977)

Oh, yes, let it be known that I got that at 7:29. A long day of being overworked, driving home in a snow storm, shovelling my drive way, and getting two crying kids under 3 to bed will reduce Tuttle to stupidity. Short trip.

At least I caught my mistake, giving a long term poster the respect he deserved in the end.

I should actually comment on the trade. What does Bowden have to lose here? Go for the high-ceiling commodities, swing for the fences with every pickup. I don't understand why this doesn't happen more frequently as a tactic for the downtrodden teams of any league. I don't think Bowden failed to notice Hamilton's 2007 for the Reds. Plus, Bowden loves himself some toolsy OFs; we all know that.

Now, as for playing time for 2008, I would be sorely disappointed if Pena didn't play every day. He really just needs defensive innings and ABs to see what kind of player he is and to be able to hit his genoptype at all. Kearns should start over Dukes, and Dukes should get enough starts to keep only Pena as a 140+ games started player. Millidge would be OK with one year of say 100 starts + more playing time, I'd think, after being somewhat buried with the Mets.

91. RMc is the President of the United States Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2632995)

Or even Coy and Vance.

Dukes a hazard?

92. Gaelan Posted: December 03, 2007 at 09:19 PM (#2633022)

As to Kearns defense diamondmind consistently gives him an EX rating in RF. I think he was the only RF to get an EX rating after both the 2005 and 2006 seasons. This is what Tom Tippett had to say about him.

It should come as no surprise to regular readers that Austin Kearns is the third
right fielder to stand out this year. From the beginning, we pointed to him as
a defensive star in part-time duty, and he was one of my outfield picks last
year despite lacking a little on the playing time front. He split the 2006
season between two teams, making a total of 139 starts, and continued to perform
at the highest level.

Dukes was dreadful in CF last year both to the naked eye and according to the numbers. Now some of that could be the transition from the minors (call it the MWE effect) but considering he is enormous and not particularly nimble I say he has average corner outfielder written all over him.

I'm also not in the camp that believes Milledge can play CF. Everybody plays CF in the minors. That, in itself, does not prove they can play CF in the majors.

93. thetailor Posted: December 03, 2007 at 09:58 PM (#2633072)

162 games*3 positions=486 games

None of you guys are thinking outside the box here. See, what Bowden is going to do is play with four outfielders and four infielders. Considering how crappy the pitching staff is, and how large the stadium is, it makes perfect sense. I'm not sure which infielder won't be there, but since the immortal Brian Schneider was traded, I think they'll just put the wall really close behind home plate. It won't matter anyway, since no strikes thrown by Nats pitchers even make it past the batter.

I'm also not in the camp that believes Milledge can play CF. Everybody plays CF in the minors. That, in itself, does not prove they can play CF in the majors.

Yeah uh... if you don't think Milledge can play centerfield, you're just kidding yourself. He played a great defensive CF in the minor leagues and we good in his brief time playing it up here. There is NO reason to think otherwise.

94. HowardMegdal Posted: December 03, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2633081)

FWIW, I had the pleasure of seeing Gibson pitch when I did a story on Dellin Betances. I was very impressed. Did he get hurt?

95. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: December 03, 2007 at 10:17 PM (#2633097)

A long day of being overworked, driving home in a snow storm, shovelling my drive way, and getting two crying kids under 3 to bed will reduce Tuttle to stupidity. Short trip.

IF that's all it takes to get JT to post stupid posts, then maybe he should have his ch... Nah, won't go there. :)

96. mattb Posted: December 03, 2007 at 11:20 PM (#2633175)

FWIW, I had the pleasure of seeing Gibson pitch when I did a story on Dellin Betances. I was very impressed. Did he get hurt?

He had Mono his last couple starts of the year and lost something like 20 lbs. Seriously. Be careful who you kiss. (I guess Lastings learned that lesson already).

Also, this trade is awesome and the Nats just got a lot more fun to watch.

97. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 03, 2007 at 11:48 PM (#2633207)

It's hard to keep track of everyone's flaws so I can properly judge them.

I was thinking about using an excel spreadsheet.

I find it much easier to just keep an enemies list.

98. Rafael Bellylard is in the worst shape of his life Posted: December 03, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2633211)

Elijah Dukes = Albert Belle
Lastings Milledge = Reggie Jackson

Lastings Milledge = perception
Elijah Dukes = reality

99. MSI Posted: December 03, 2007 at 11:52 PM (#2633215)

Felipe Lopez for Josh Towers? Nationals would be good with some pitching now, and Towers could be a good NL pitcher...

100. Chris Needham Posted: December 04, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2633230)

If the Blue Jays offered that, I'm sure we'd be able to get an entire caravan of Nats fans to escort him to the border.

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