i like this part:

we said here's a final take-it-or-leave-it offer of $3 million, which we later moved to $3.3 million. And then verbally at the last minute, we went to $3.5 million.


please, don't do take it or leave it unless you really mean it! it's nice (from a gossip point of view) to go into the details, but i wouldn't want a professional doing this in near real-time (as opposed to a retrospective, long-after-the incident has happened)

disappointing for nats fans that they could afford to sign ramirez or crow, but not both.

and he's in favor of a "hard slotting system". maybe there should be one for gms...

Baseball America had Ramirez pegged as the 155th best prospect going into the draft, so I think Bowden is stretching to claim Ramirez as a first-round talent. It also means they overpaid for him. And the news that it was either Ramirez or Crow is extremely disappointing, especially when you consider how much other teams spent on this draft and how much the organization has emphasized player development to the media and the fans.

If Bowden is telling the truth, sounds like crow didn't fancy washington and the hendricks brothers were just playing around.

I mean how can it be a serious negotiation with just emails?

What happens now? Does crow have to wait til next year's draft or can he just be signed by an MLB team as an independent free agent?

nope, he's back in the draft for next year, and nats get a first round comp pick.

i don't know what happens if he doesn't sign *next* year...

Crow has to wait until next year's draft. I expect he'll get his $4 million at that point.

keith - i mentioned this on another thread, hope you're still around and might be able to answer...

do (have?) any of the top draft picks got an insurance policy, especially those who go back to college? that is, we'll (player/family) pay X amount of dollars for Y amount of coverage ensuring that they are a first round pick, or something similar to that?

i'd put a high premium on pitchers for that if i were the insurance company...

Looking at this with over 30 years experience as a professional contracts negotiator, I can tell you from experience that I've had to walk away from a (much much much larger) deal on a couple of occasions. If the numbers in the article are correct (big if, I know) then the market number for Crow was in the $3.25 - $3.5 million range. It's "what the number wanted to be", so to speak.

$3.5 million now has a future value of about $3.7 million a year from now. Plus, Crow is a year further away from free agency, I believe, even if he signs a major league deal next year. The impact of a free agency alone has got to be more than $300K. The insurance premiums for such a high risk have to amount to something as well.

If an agent's duty is to sign their client to the highest amount the market will bear, it appears that (again, if the numbers are accurate), Crow's agents did him a disservice, bordering on malpractice.

While I am a Nats fan, I'm no admirer of Bowden. However, the history of the last two draft here is that the team has gone above slot and shown some creativity in signing "unsignable" players.

I love Jasper Fforde.

Bob, I have heard anecdotally that some amateur players have done that, but I don't believe it's common. I imagine the EV on the premiums would be negative, although I suppose there's value in peace of mind.

Just know JB contradicts himself a few times in the article (in my opinion anyway, bouncing from "just email" to no logs of conversations and such) but I think he's comes off as pretty transparent. They wanted the player, they were given some non dollar parameters to satisfy and they did so. Until the day before the deadline, the agents were asking for a $9 million dollar deal, with a major league contract.

That just seems insane.

In Hendricks is carping that the Nats walked away from the deal over $500k, he just just retire. The Nats will be fine, they'll get another pick, another kick at the can. The player, however, may never get another offer like this, and I'm sure will be in an even weaker negotiating position next year. I agree with 7, it's bordering on criminal.

And I'm a Jay fan, and no Bowden apologist.

They wanted the player, they were given some non dollar parameters to satisfy and they did so. Until the day before the deadline, the agents were asking for a $9 million dollar deal, with a major league contract.

That just seems insane.

This is just Bowden's side, so we are (extremely) likely not getting all the facts- but players/agents in the past have totally misread the market- the most extreme case possibly being Matt Harrington.

Judging by other reputed bonuses and where Crow was ranked pre-draft, if he really was demanding $9mm and never came down- he or his agent either really were insane- or just didn't want to sign with the Nats and wanted to take his chances next year with someone else.

It failed spectacularly for Harrington, failed less spectacularly for Townsend (who was likely low-balled by the Orioles to boot- so he was screwed either way) (and Varitek back in the day) and worked for Hochevar (largely because KC overdrafted him the next year)

largely because KC overdrafted him the next year

you can say that again

I read the heading in the sidebar as having something to do with "Jim Crow," as the two words appear on top of each other.

It's easy to sling mud at Bowden over his desire for a slotting system, but I found myself nodding my head frequently during this paragraph:

The system doesn't work. And, you know, I think it would be in the best interest of the players and the clubs and the fans if there was a hard slotting system, whatever the numbers end up being -- let's take the numbers out. The player has to sign into the draft. They have to say they're going to sign, and sign into the draft. The clubs then are allowed to take the best player, and wherever you're drafted, the slotting system will pay you whatever that value is. ... It should be a system where you don't have small markets trying to do pre-cut deals or small markets not taking the best player because they can't afford him. It should be a system where everybody gets to take the best player when it's their turn to draft, and the player should sign and go. We shouldn't sit all summer. Aaron Crow shouldn't have to go home right now and play for the Fort Worth Cats and sit out and wait 'til next year's June draft and then maybe until August 14 before he signs again. I don't think that's fair to him, I don't think it's good for baseball, it's not good for the club, it's not good for anybody.

The problem I have with hard slotting is that all drafts are not created equal. Why should LeBron James get the same contract as Andrea Effin' Bargnani? That said, they're all going to be millionaires anyway, and hard slotting at least eliminates the argument that some late-rounder "would have been a first round pick" but for his college commitment. If it's good enough for the NBA...

He seems adamant that there's an email trail for the $9million figure, so much so that they contacted the family directly.

That said, Hendricks could have indicated a willingness to drop over the phone at some point without doing a formal counter offer.

It should be a system where you don't have small markets trying to do pre-cut deals or small markets not taking the best player because they can't afford him.

Another down side is there may be no player you consider worth the slot's money, but you'd have to draft one anyway.

It's not ideal, but I think the free market is better. Can't blame a GM for wanting cost certainty, though.

thanks keith...yeah, peace of mind is a big deal, but also, the first million has a much greater value to the person who doesn't have millions than the third, which is greater than the fifth, etc.

so, yeah, if i was the agent, i'd blink a bunch. but i'd also be pressing for the major league contract, figuring IF this guy can break through, get him on the arb/free agency clock as soon as possible.

Fascinating interview. I think both parties are at fault, but I put more fault on the Hendricks brothers. I think this "let's wait til August to negotiate" tactic is unwise. Crow coulda been in the big leagues for good next year. It was pennywise, but pound foolish to risk beginning his MLB career for some extra money now.

i don't know what happens if he doesn't sign *next* year...

Wasn't Matt Harrington drafted three times?

I mean how can it be a serious negotiation with just emails?

As a person who negotiates for a living, I can say it's more common than you would think.

Wasn't Matt Harrington drafted three times?

Five times

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Matt-Harrington.shtml

Drafted: Selected by Colorado Rockies in 1st Round (7th overall) of 2000 amateur entry draft (June-Reg) ... Selected by San Diego Padres in 2nd Round (58th overall) of 2001 amateur entry draft (June-Reg) ... Selected by Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 13rd Round (374th overall) of 2002 amateur entry draft (June-Reg) ... Selected by Cincinnati Reds in 24th Round (711st overall) of 2003 amateur entry draft (June-Reg) ... Selected by New York Yankees in 36th Round (1089th overall) of 2004 amateur entry draft (June-Reg)

I can understand not signing with the Rockies. Maybe even not signing with the Padres. But not signing by year three is just certifiably insane.

I mean how can it be a serious negotiation with just emails?


As a person who negotiates for a living, I can say it's more common than you would think.

Agree completely. Emails are are a written and date-stamped record.

All I can say is I keep glancing at this headline in the sidebar and reading something about "Jim Crow".

The problem I have with the system is that, if we assume for the sake of argument that there is a problematic disparity between small and large markets in the draft, a hard slotting system essentially shifts the entire burden of this problem onto high school and college kids.

As with the way revenue-sharing is designed, any increased "fairness" is simply incidental - the primary goal is to lower the percentage a player is paid of his value on a free, open market.

It should be a system where you don't have small markets trying to do pre-cut deals or small markets not taking the best player because they can't afford him.

However, given metropolitan Washington's size and affluence, it is decidedly not a small market. OK, so it isn't New York, Los Angeles or Chicago, but conversely it isn't Cincinnati, Kansas City or Milwaukee. Crow certainly was given terrible advice, but the Nationals are equally at fault for drafting someone they weren't 100% assured of signing. Yes, they may be getting a second top 10 draft pick in 2009 -- a year that looks to have a deep, talented pool of eligible players -- but the public relations wound from this fiasco isn't going to heal easily, especially in a community where the Nats need all the goodwill they can get.

Had we known that Aaron Crow's number was $9 million, we would have passed on the player.

Is it common for teams to draft a first round pick and not know what's the player's estimated price is?

Is it common for teams to draft a first round pick and not know what's the player's estimated price is?

Good question

But then again, if you're a GM and you know that a specific player's asking price is, quite frankly, insane, do you:

1: Assume he's posturing?
2: Assume he's trying to ward off certain teams (like those that won't go over slot)?
3: Assume that when he's drafted and is staring at real $, and see's that no one else is getting a bazillion dollars, reality will sink in...?

Some people simply need a reality check, but if I'm a GM, do I want to run the risk that reality won't sink in until after the deadline?

I have no doubt that some players think they are better, AND think they are regarded as being better*, than they really are- and many such players will pick an agent who will confirm that opinion for them. If a player thinks he's top 10 material, and 2 agents tell him he's late 1st round material, 2 tell him maybe supplemental round, but one guy says, yep, you are a definite top ten pick- he's gonna hire the guy who blew smoke up his a$$

I have no doubt that the vast majority of players think they are better than they really are (just like everyone else)- but tend to have a much better grasp of where others slot them so to speak. Player A may think he should have been taken from 5 to 10, but if BA and others have him at 20-30 and he's taken #25- Player A will likely accept $25 money while thinking he's worth more. The guy who thinks he's a 5-10 pick, and thinks that everyone else thinks the same thing, will simply assume that the team that picked him at 25 thinks so as well, and that he only dropped because the cheapskate teams were scared off.

Crow has to wait until next year's draft. I expect he'll get his $4 million at that point.

Can you say that for sure, though? The guy was pretty good the year before this one, but really good this one. What if he goes back to his previous level of play? What if he blows out his arm? I think these guys should fight for the money, too, but at the end of the day, someone gives you that golden ticket, you have to take it. Maybe that's just me. They're talking about more money in signing one piece of paper than I may make in my entire career, so what the hell do I know?

Wasn't Matt Harrington drafted three times?

I can understand not signing with the Rockies. Maybe even not signing with the Padres. But not signing by year three is just certifiably insane.

Yeah, Matt Harrington really showed them! Not signing in year one was pretty stupid. He cost himself, what, 5 million dollars? I get mad at myself when I make a stupid decision and it costs me $100, I can't imagine what I'd do if I cost myself $5 million.

But then again, if you're a GM and you know that a specific player's asking price is, quite frankly, insane, do you:

1: Assume he's posturing?

Bowden did mention that Porcello's pre-draft asking price scared them off last year. It's possible that Boras possesses the credibility to back up his high demands while the Hendricks brothers do not possess the same type of intimidation... yet.

Now, what does this do for the Nationals next year? They're going to have two top 10 picks. In an outside, idealistic view, that's awesome. It isn't often you can pull in that much talent in one year. But, we know baseball GMs and owners don't think like that. They're going to be worried about the money from the get-go. And, with one of the picks, they'll have almost no leverage. The pick that they get from this failure they have to sign, or they get nothing. So, it's almost assured that the player they choose there will be a signability pick unless a new GM comes in and convinces ownership to pay for talent twice.

Bowden really wants MLB to change the rules just make his job that much easier. Both he and Crow's advisers messed this up, but Bowden's whining is inexcusable. He knows the rules of the game, and it's him and his organization's job to do their homework on all the different ins and outs of a particular pick.

Hey, Jim: your job isn't hard because you work for a "small market" team, your job is hard because you're a moron.

#28: Porcello could've gone to college, and Boras has a history of taking HSers to college if his price isn't met.

#29: The real downside is that next year's draft class doesn't look as good as this year's. OTOH if the Nats want to neutralize the leverage they should use the comp pick on Crow if he's there.

#29: The real downside is that next year's draft class doesn't look as good as this year's. OTOH if the Nats want to neutralize the leverage they should use the comp pick on Crow if he's there.

it's way too early to tell if the draft class isn't as good. It's probably not going to be, but you never know. Still, two top 10 picks even in a bad class is pretty good.

#29: The real downside is that next year's draft class doesn't look as good as this year's. OTOH if the Nats want to neutralize the leverage they should use the comp pick on Crow if he's there.

I didn't think you could draft the same player two years in a row if you failed to sign them the first time. Wasn't that the case with JD Drew?

Unless they changed the rule, I think the player has to give permission to be drafted again by the same team.

"I didn't think you could draft the same player two years in a row if you failed to sign them the first time. Wasn't that the case with JD Drew?"

You have to have their permission in order to re-draft them.

Is it common for teams to draft a first round pick and not know what's the player's estimated price is?

Yes, and Bowden's statement is BS. There were all sorts of reports that Crow was asking for $7-8 million before the draft. Maybe what Bowden meant was that "if they had known Hendricks wouldn't budge from $9 million until August 15, they wouldn't have drafted him." But it was well known prior to the draft that Crow may have signability issues and was asking for a ridiculous amount.

Still, two top 10 picks even in a bad class is pretty good.

If the Nats are going to quibble over $500K for one high draft pick, what makes you think they could handle signing two? Maybe they'll just keep accumulating picks until they have 30 or so first-rounders and then screw over 29 players every year.

I don't think you can accumulate picks.
If the Nats don't sign pick 10A next year (or whatever it is), they lose it in the 2010 draft

If the Nats don't sign pick 10A next year (or whatever it is), they lose it in the 2010 draft

Exactly. That's why they have no leverage next year. If they don't sign 10A next year, they've thrown away a first round pick.

Yes, and Bowden's statement is BS. There were all sorts of reports that Crow was asking for $7-8 million before the draft. Maybe what Bowden meant was that "if they had known Hendricks wouldn't budge from $9 million until August 15, they wouldn't have drafted him." But it was well known prior to the draft that Crow may have signability issues and was asking for a ridiculous amount.

I guess if Bowden said, "I knew Crow's pre-draft $9M figure was BS, but I wrongly calculated that I could get Crow to come down to my price," in an interview, it wouldn't sound so good. Bowden deserves a lot of the blame, he took a gamble and lost.

Also, does Crow have any leverage left to ask for more than $4M next year?

I guess if Bowden said, "I knew Crow's pre-draft $9M figure was BS, but I wrongly calculated that I could get Crow to come down to my price," in an interview, it wouldn't sound so good. Bowden deserves a lot of the blame, he took a gamble and lost.

Bowden is having a tough couple of months. The Cordero non-tender bungling, the Latin America kickback scandal and now this. Is ownership that committed to him?

Bowden is having a tough couple of months. The Cordero non-tender bungling, the Latin America kickback scandal and now this.

...and the team has lost ten games in a row, and has the worst record in baseball.

But he does have that sweet Segway.

...and the team has lost ten games in a row, and has the worst record in baseball.

If they keep that up, they'll get Strasburg

...and the team has lost ten games in a row, and has the worst record in baseball.

but Milledge is now at .261/.323/.407, giving him a 100 point OPS edge on Carlos Gomez .250/.286/.338 , which, if it holds up, will let me win a bet with a Carlos Gomez fanboy.

seriously, how badly did this year go for Bowden?

Felipe Lopez has been sub-replacement since the day he put on a Nats uniform
Austin Kearns is hitting .217/.307/.308

so much for that trade.

Milledge leads the team with 12 homers and is second with 45 ribbies.

Christian Guzman or Ronnie Belliard might be the team's MVP (them or Jesus Flores- gee thanks Omar)

Nick Johnson is out for the year after barely 100 Abs
Zimmerman was hurt and hasn't played well
Wily Mo came into the year with a career OPS+ of 102... and just completely vaporized.

Willie Freakin Harris might have had the best year of all their OFs

Elijah Dukes stayed out of jail and actually began to rake... and got hurt....

If they keep that up, they'll get Strasburg

Well, they'll get to draft him...

Does the compensation pick extend to the first overall? Meaning, could the Rays opted not to have signed Beckham in order to get the #1 pick overall the next year.

I guess it would be 1A (meaning 2 overall), but if there were 2 A++ prospects on the horizon in a weak year, could a team just draft someone #1 overall whom they had no intention of paying?

guess it would be 1A (meaning 2 overall), but if there were 2 A++ prospects on the horizon in a weak year, could a team just draft someone #1 overall whom they had no intention of paying?

Sure, but (a) there's no guarantee the two players considered the best will still be the best a year from now; and (b) with the window of success for many GMs being only a few years, few GMs are going to have the balls to forego a top pick this year for a top pick next year when they need to build the farm system now.

For the record: I didn't mean by saying I nodded my head to what Bowden said above that I sympathize with Bowden in this instance. The Nats are not a big-market team, Bowden knew the rules going in, and Crow had already made clear before the draft that he wanted a big number.

That said, as someone selfishly interested in 1) seeing the best players play baseball, and 2) small-market teams drafting based on talent rather than price, I'd like to see a slotting system in place. I don't care much if such a system transfers wealth on net to owners from prospective players - if properly designed, that affect would be small except for extreme cases (e.g. the LeBron Jameses of baseball). If a team doesn't want to draft any available player in the slot they're assigned, they could pass and receive a compensation pick at the end of that round.

The current system isn't broken enough that I'm really upset with it (other than free agent draft pick compensation, which is the stupidest thing ever), but I would like to see slotting so long as it achieves the goals I mention above. If the only slotting system the powers-that-be could design wouldn't meet those goals, screw it.

Since coming back from the DL on July 25 Milledge has hit .315/.365/.539.

Check out Milledge's Gamelog. Follow the OPS as it peaks in mid-April, goes down until mid-May, up until mid-June, down until the end of July (a week after his return from the DL)...and now since the beginning of August, his OPS has gone from .651 to .730.

I wonder if all these peaks and valleys correlate with injuries.