Stuff like this is a sure sign that the offseason is dragging on and everyone is just plain bored.

Jeter helped the Yankees reach the playoffs from 1998-2000 and 2004-2006

Wow Jeter's intangibles must be out of this world if the Yanks needed Jeter on the field instead of an average SS in 1998.

In 1999 the Yanks would have been the Wild Card winner without Jeter

In 2000 they would have had to play their missed game.

Wild Card winner in 2004

Tied for Wild Card in 2005

In 2006 they had a 10 game lead on Boston.

so in the 6 years that he said that Jeter would help it really only boils down to 2 seasons in which he pushes them over a tie. But here is the real funny kicker:

But, here, I think you have to take into account the overall strength of the 1998 Yankees, and, how bad the 2006 Blue Jays and Red Sox were (those seasons). Jeter had strong seasons in 1998 and 2006 - and, it should not be his fault that the Yankees had an easy path to October those years.

Funny. The guy can't even maintain his let the numbers speak for themselves approach in this column. In the end he has to give Jeter extra points just because.

I've always thought Lombardi doesn't dig deep enough when he uses stats, and to me, this is the type of post that proves it.

The 2007 Yanks sucked in April, May and a good chunk of June.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/teams/aleast/

Jeter (.845 OPS in April, .911 OPS in May and .869 OPS in June) and Posada (.873 OPS in April, 1.053 OPS in May and .835 June) were the only two Yankees who consistently hit during the first 3 months of the 2007 season, though A-Rod had MONSTER months in April and June (1.297 OPS in April and 1.269 OPS in June).

Jeter was below his usual output during July and August (.791 and .766), but ironically, that's when most other Yankees (e.g., Cano, Abreu, non-May Matsui, Melky) started hitting and the Yanks got ahead of Detroit and Seattle in the wild card (heck, just having Jose Molina as back-up catcher was an upgrade vs. the extremely poor hitting Will Nieves, especially when Nieves' best game - 2 hits and 1BB - was the May 27 loss to the Angels).

Do the 2007 Yanks make the playoffs with Eckstein-like production during the whole year?

Seeing as how they were 9-14 in April, 13-15 in May and 15-11 in June, I don't think so (the Yanks would have been much farther behind the Tigers and Mariners).

Yanks won the Wild Card by 6 games. you're telling me that in just 77 games Jeter is worth 6 games above average?

No, I'm telling you that Jeter was above average for a SS when he was one of the few Yankees that was actually hitting, and average for a SS when the rest of the team was hitting.

Believe me, I am not a Jeter apologist (I'm more of a Mariano Rivera apologist, but that's for another time), but within the way the Yanks 2007 season played out, an average SS's offensive output would have meant that the Yankees would have been much worse than 22-29 at the end of May 2007.

Could the Yanks have rallied back if they had been (say) 19-32 or 18-33?

Maybe, but I would not have bet on it.

Could Lombardi have actually looked in more detail before writing his post?

Yes, he could have and yes, he should have.

For giggles I checked April, May, and June to see how many of those games in which the Yanks won and Jeter's production helped that win. I found 7 games, in 5 of them without him it probably results in a tie and 2 of them he is the difference between a loss and a win. So with an average SS at least 5 of those games result in a win as well. At best you can say that Jeter's production in those 3 months led to 2 more wins.

Yanks 2007 season played out, an average SS's offensive output would have meant that the Yankees would have been much worse than 22-29 at the end of May 2007.

Could the Yanks have rallied back if they had been (say) 19-32 or 18-33?

Based on their actual record the Yanks without Jeter would have been 22-29 at the end of May. His 2 games in which they might not have won without him happened in June.

Ok, so the Yanks would have been 2 games worst than they were at the end of June (i.e, they would have been 35-42 instead of 37-40).

Do the Yankees beat back the Tigers and Mariners for the Wild Card?

Maybe, but I doubt it (it's quite likely that Torre was fired at that point or that major trades would have been made, be it white flag trades or mortgaging-of-the-future trades to try to get immediate help and save the 2007 season).

The problem that I have with Mr. Lombardi's methodology is that he is making the basic assumption that things even out during the course of a season. This is usually the case (and a good way to look at things sabermetrically), but it's not always the case (sometimes teams go on 20 game winning streaks like the 2002 As or on crazy tears that get them to the WS like the 2007 Rockies or collapse when they were about to win their division like the 2007 Mets). The 2007 Yanks were somewhat like that, since it's not very common for teams to be down 7 games down in the WC at the end of May or 7 1/2 at the end of June ) and come back and win the WC by 6 games.

Clearly one can do as you just did, and tease out more info from the raw data (and give some context to it).

Lombardi usually doesn't do this, and it's why I stopped going to his blog...

Do the Yankees beat back the Tigers and Mariners for the Wild Card?

Maybe, but I doubt it (it's quite likely that Torre was fired at that point or that major trades would have been made, be it white flag trades or mortgaging-of-the-future trades to try to get immediate help and save the 2007 season).

Torre gets fired because of 2 more losses?

The problem that I have with Mr. Lombardi's methodology is that he is making the basic assumption that things even out during the course of a season.

Of course the next question after finding out how many games did Jeter turn into wins is to find out how many games Jeter turned into losses.

Surprisingly in that stretch not a whole lot. Maybe you could say one.

I'm sorry, but I don't follow. Why do you think it's important to show what actual games Jeter turned into losses?

I love the implicit hindsight in all this, as if the Yanks could have known in advance exactly how many wins they were going to need out of Jeter in order to "justify" not using a replacement level SS instead. Not to mention the assumption that once they replace him for one blowout season they'd be able to get him back for a tight race the next year.

But here's the kicker -- Jeter has a crazy expensive contract. If the Yankees spent $19 million per season on a different shortstop or something else, they'd be at least as good as with Jeter. It's really only during his early seasons that he was a positive asset to the Yankees.

I'm sorry, but I don't follow. Why do you think it's important to show what actual games Jeter turned into losses

Well, if your view is that Jeter's performance led to wins above an average SS due to his unsteady splits then we should also compare his bad performances against an average SS.

12.

Next topic.

But here's the kicker -- Jeter has a crazy expensive contract. If the Yankees spent $19 million per season on a different shortstop or something else, they'd be at least as good as with Jeter. It's really only during his early seasons that he was a positive asset to the Yankees.

True enough. Now all you have to do is get a time machine and undo that contract, and then without knowing what we know now, come up with a better shortstop at a similar or lower price. And no fair using any of the money you'd save for bribing any rival team's GM.

Of course since by doing that you'll be combining 20/20 hindsight with 20/20 foresight, you'll easily be able to parlay that double whammy skill into a lifetime ESPN show---but that "SkyKing" bit won't play in the DC market, since around Georgetown, SkyKing was mainly known for leaving his calling card in backyard flower beds.

The answer is a big ZERO times. Jeter hurts the Yankee's chances by my calculations, which put importance on fielding, clutch hitting, and record when injured. Jeter scores a -22. The average is 14.

around Georgetown, SkyKing was mainly known for leaving his calling card in backyard flower beds

One of my HS friends' dad was nicknamed "Sky King" because he was one of the early pioneers of guts Frisbee...was mentioned in the WSJ, in fact, in one of their rare sports articles. Thanks to them I still love Frisbee, but it's hard finding someone my own age to throw with.

For us oldsters, there is only one Sky King.

We are in the doldrums of baseball, that's for sure.

Well, this particular Sky King's signature line when he got caught by those flowerbed owners was, "Hey, man, it kills the ants." They actually had a writeup on him in the Washington Post when he died, but somehow that quote didn't make the cut.

For us oldsters, there is only one Sky King.

Yes I particularly liked his niece Penny getting tied up by baddies in many episodes. Actually there was quite a bit of bondage in the olden days, e.g. Lois Lane, Annie Oakley, etc.