If Boras does this, it would destroy NPB. No Japanese team will touch this kid.

If Boras does this, it would destroy NPB. No Japanese team will touch this kid.

That's true, Larry, but then there's this alternative scenario, described at the end of the article:

Whiting mentioned an additional option for Boras and Strasburg that would avoid the acrimony from the NPB: industrial-league professional baseball, called "Shakai Yakyu." According to Whiting, there is "not an inconsiderable amount of interest in these leagues," and the annual tournament is a well-attended affair at the Tokyo Dome.

"Strikes me as a variation of the J.D. Drew-St. Paul adventure," Whiting said.

Even if Boras were to succeed in getting Strasburg a job in Japan, getting him to the promised land of free agency likely would require a challenge to baseball's residency rules. And because Strasburg is not a member of the union, it is a fight that would occur in court, as opposed to arbitration.

"I wouldn't be shocked if that's the route," said one baseball executive who has butted heads with Boras in the past. "The one place where he might stand a chance is in antitrust law."

Ultimately, though, Boras's undoing could come from the very document he is hoping will guide him to a big payday: the Major League Rules. Rule 4, which governs the draft, ends with subsection (k), which says this:

"Official interpretations of this Rule 4 may be made from time to time by the Commissioner or the Commissioner's designee."

And while MLB and Boras have their to-do, the hopes and dreams of Washington fans are being trampled on like Belgium during wartime. But then, hasn't that been the case for three-quarters of a century?

The worst-case scanario from a Nationals' perspective would be to have the draft ruled illegal. That would further boost the importance of scouting -- an area where this franchise has sorely been lacking since Loria's rape of the organization -- and without a draft, the Nats might never catch up to the rest of MLB..

I'm going to assume that the Nats have made an offer in the ballpark of $15mil. If so, then I say this with all due respect to Mr. Strasburg:


Sign the damned contract already.

I'm sorry, but if Strasburg would rather play in Japan for marginally more money than playing Major League Baseball, I don't think he has the necessary character to enjoy a long career. What No. 1 pick out of college wants to start his career in Japan? Nothing against Japan, but that would be like John Tavares saying, sorry Islanders, I've decided to go play for Dynamo Riga.

that would be like John Tavares saying, sorry Islanders, I've decided to go play for Dynamo Riga.

Have the watched the Islanders play lately? (I have, as it happens: I was at
this game...)

If he signs in Japan, he's got a much longer road to free agency than if he signs here. Boras is bluffing.

I don't understand--it's where you're born that matters, right? If he overturns the antitrust deal, then he doesn't have to move anyone to Japan or anywhere else.

@7--If I were representing a young pitcher, I wouldn't be making any decisions based on his earning potential 6-7 years down the road. I'd get him the best deal I could get him right now.

He's probably bluffing, but I don't blame him. This the only big money Strasburg is going to get for several years. Since he's a pitcher, he has a pretty high risk of busting or getting injured which could impact his future earnings severely. He'd be insane not to try and get as much as possible right now and its Boras's job to get it for him. If he thinks that threatening to go to Japan can get more leverage, then he should do it. I am skeptical that it will get him much leverage, but the Nats as an organization need to sign this kid at least as bad as he needs to sign with them, so he already has quite a bit of leverage to start with.

@7--If I were representing a young pitcher, I wouldn't be making any decisions based on his earning potential 6-7 years down the road. I'd get him the best deal I could get him right now.

Exactly.

Strasburgh will then proceed to kill a guy on a HBP in Japan, then the son of the dead baseball player will turn out to be a total stud SP prospect .

Or I watch too much Japanese comics.

It's an interesting bluff, but it seems like a huge risk. Between now and his payday he'd have to go through a huge culture shock, which seems like it could turn into a big obstacle. On top of that, isn't there a history of Boras pitching clients suffering drops in performance when they're under the private coaching for a while? Just seems like there's a good chance he'd end up with drops in velocity and control between now and when he could get paid.

I agree that it's a bluff, but it's a rather obvious bluff. An effective bluff needs to have at least the threat of turning into reality. If we're playing cards and I tell you I have three 8s, maybe I do. If I tell you I have 4 aces and a flush, then, well, I'm clearly bluffing.


(Obviously, if I'm telling you what I have, I'm not much of a card player).

With any other agent I'd say it's an obvious bluff, but I could see Boras pushing Strasburg to do it to see if he can crack the draft for later years.

Scott Boras doesn't bluff.

Scott Boras doesn't bluff.

Of course he does; any good agent bluffs. Unless you want to call it a negotiating position, but that's just semantics. I agree with bunyon, this is too obviously a bluff to be effective. Unless Strasburg's willing to sacrifice his career in order to be the test case that kills the MLB draft, it doesn't make sense for him to go play in the Japanese industrial league. And based on the Clarett case and the fact that every professional sports league in America has a draft, I find it highly unlikely that Boras/Strasburg are going to be able to get the American court system to rule that the MLB draft is illegal/unconstitutional (but I'm no lawyer, so I'd be willing to defer to others on this point).

By far the most likely solution is that Strasburg signs a major-league contract with the Nationals, probably in the $20-$30 million range. In fact, I'd say it's more likely than not that Strasburg makes his major-league debut during the 2009 season.

Scott Boras doesn't bluff.

Why don't we have a sweet Chuck Norris-ism website dedicated to the efficiency/evil of Scott Boras? Premiere talent seeking the most possible money is foolish to sign with another agent.

Of course he bluffs... but he doesn't bluff.

Sorry; it's just my poker background coming out. One of the thing's that great about a great poker player is you just have a hell of a time calling his bluffs, because there's no way to figure out when he's bluffing, and also because he doesn't actually bluff nearly as much as is generally presumed.

What's the last major bluff you remember Boras making and getting caught making? I can't remember anything besides insisting Matsuzaka wouldn't sign for less than $100 million, myself.

I still don't think Strasburg will sign for a dime less than $30 million, and I still don't think he will sign.

This is semantics, but he did claim to have 5/75 (or something) for Millwood before he signed a 1-year deal.

-If I were representing a young pitcher, I wouldn't be making any decisions based on his earning potential 6-7 years down the road.

But the whole argument for paying Strasburg $50 million is his earning potential 4-5 years down the road. So what Boras is effectively saying is "Strasburg is a sure bet. So, um, can we have all the money up front?"

What's the last major bluff you remember Boras making and getting caught making? I can't remember anything besides insisting Matsuzaka wouldn't sign for less than $100 million, myself.

What "major bluffs" has he made since then? That was less than three years ago.

How about the claim that Kevin Millwood had an offer for 5 years/$75 million? He wound up accepting arbitration.

I still don't think Strasburg will sign for a dime less than $30 million, and I still don't think he will sign.

Well, unless he's nothing but a stereotypical greedy dumb jock, it'll be a great learning experience for him to pitch in the Japanese industrial leagues. He might be advised, however, not to injure that zillion dollar arm of his while grabbing for that last piece of sushi on the buffet tray---for that would truly be a shame.

But the whole argument for paying Strasburg $50 million is his earning potential 4-5 years down the road. So what Boras is effectively saying is "Strasburg is a sure bet. So, um, can we have all the money up front?"

A couple things. First, that's what every long term contract boils down to, though. The player/agent argues that they are supervaluable and will be for a long time, so they want a lot of guaranteed money.

Second, the whole argument for Strasburg getting $50 mil is based on him being ready right now. If he were like other draftees, there'd be no talk of him getting $50 mil.

How about the claim that Kevin Millwood had an offer for 5 years/$75 million? He wound up accepting arbitration.

So he's made two major bluffs that were called in the last three years. That's really not that impressive a record, is it? Take the other side - in the same time frame, what things has Boras said that seemed ridiculous at the time and turned out to happen?

Don't get me wrong, Boras is a good agent. But this blather isn't about Steven Strasburg seriously considering the merits of playing baseball in Japan. This blather is about getting Strasburg another $5 million from the Nationals.

Didn't Boras claim that there were at least two offers for Manny Ramirez higher than the Dodgers' last winter?

Manny won't sign for less than 5/100. That bluff didn't go so well.

This article is testament to one of SB's greatest skills- getting media people to write about ridiculous scenarios and pretend they have some validity.

Boras has shown the willingness to put an individual's playing career on the line for the long term war against MLB. I'm not sure I'd like to sign up for that with my one shot at life.

Millwood was before he went to Cleveland in 05 and Matsuzaka was prior to 07. For Manny, the story was that he told Manny 4/100 but I don't think there's confirmation on that. But we should also be careful not to confuse cases of productive spin with bluffs that didn't work. In Manny case, for instance, he got him 2 years for more the $40 mil when he had only one bidder in a down market. In Matsuzaka's case, he really had no leverage at all. He had only 1 team to negotiate with and a client who did not want to go back to Japan. Millwood had to go with a 1-year deal, but got a very nice one the following year. Overall, he does an amazing job for his clients.

I admit I don't follow the draft as closely as others, but it seems to me the Nationals hold the stronger cards here.

If I were them, I'd make a very public announcement about the offer I make to Strasburg (say it comes in at $18 million), making damned sure to keep hammering that it's the richest signing contract in baseball history. If Boras turns down the offer and continues to try to negotiate for the $40-50 million he's been arguing for, I'd not only keep mentioning this contract is the richest ever, I'd give an unsigned copy of the contract to any media outlets that want to print it. I'd then tell Boras he has zero negotiating room; this is what the Nats will sign for...not one penny more and here's the date the offer is good until...and stick to it.

Sorry, I just don't see where Strasburg is the guaranteed franchise-savior his agent is making him out to be. Even if he's Sandy Koufax-incarnate, the Nats become maybe a 75-win team. He doesn't want to sign a contract that should set him up for the rest of his life, #### 'em.

This article is testament to one of SB's greatest skills- getting media people to write about ridiculous scenarios and pretend they have some validity.

That's certainly not the case here, as the article makes the obstacles in going this route quite clear.

it seems to me the Nationals hold the stronger cards here.

The Nationals are under quite a bit of pressure to sign this guy. The Washington sports media has been writing about Strasburg like he's the baseball messiah come to save baseball in our nation's capitol. If he goes unsigned, the Nationals fans will be very pissed.

The Washington sports media has been writing about Strasburg like he's the baseball messiah come to save baseball in our nation's capitol. If he goes unsigned, the Nationals fans will be very pissed.

If the Nationals signed Strasburg tomorrow, the local media would find something new to rip them for by early next week. As far as the fans go, printing a copy of the contract would deflect a lot of criticism the Nats would receive from the fans. In this economy, the Nationals wouldn't be the bad guys if they offer Strasburg that kind of money and he (through his agent) turns it down.

I don't think that printing his contract offer in the paper will make Strasburg more likely to sign. It will likely just piss Boras off.

That's certainly not the case here, as the article makes the obstacles in going this route quite clear.

I disagree a bit. This scenario should have been met with laughter. I appreciate that in this case the Post's general professionalism precluded that exact result but the effort to treat this as a credible threat is silly IMO.

In either case, I don't recall seeing a query on this issue presented to Mr. Strasburg- wouldn't that be appropriate in this instance? I'd be interested to hear from the people with a journalism background but it would seem that a "would you be willing to go" question presented to Strasburg should have found its way into the article. I recognize that they almost certainly wouldn't get an answer but my thought is that in an article of this nature don't they generally indicate that a subject was asked for a response but refused to give one?

I don't think that printing his contract offer in the paper will make Strasburg more likely to sign. It will likely just piss Boras off.

You're not really negotiating with Boras, you're negotiating with Strasburg (and his family) through the media.

This kid has a chance to be set for the rest of his life, and be in the bigs by next year. You want him to think long and hard about pissing that away to play for Mitsubishi in order to further Boras' grand schemes.

Boras may be tough, but Stan Kasten is a ball-breaker in his own right; this isn't some puscator push-over Boras is dealing with here.

By far the most likely solution is that Strasburg signs a major-league contract with the Nationals, probably in the $20-$30 million range. In fact, I'd say it's more likely than not that Strasburg makes his major-league debut during the 2009 season.

I've always maintained that Boras would make a major-league contract a requirement of the deal, if only to get Strasburg's free agency clock to begin early. If the Nats are going to risk losing Strasburg over that, then they're being pennywise and pound-foolish.

Boras may be tough, but Stan Kasten is a ball-breaker in his own right; this isn't some puscator push-over Boras is dealing with here.

Kasten was negotiating from strength in Atlanta, due to the Braves' string of division titles. Here, he's dealing with a disillusioned fan base who believe his actions have proven that Schuerholz, not Kasten, was the architect of the Braves' success (no matter how much Tom Boswell may shill for Stan), and that Kasten is more concerned with the presidents' races than the won-loss record. Kasten could leave the organization tomorrow and few in this town would mourn his departure.

Bos, you're a little older than I am (53), and if either of us want to see significant pennant-race baseball in D.C. in our lifetimes, much less postseason play, Kasten needs to be replaced ASAP as part of a complete organizational makeover.

I disagree a bit. This scenario should have been met with laughter. I appreciate that in this case the Post's general professionalism precluded that exact result but the effort to treat this as a credible threat is silly IMO.

Or maybe Boras paid the Post $250,000!

I think a likely, plan is for Boras to try and get Washington to make a procedural error that sets Strasburg free. To make that happen, he has to cause some chaos while also negoiating (as a primary track) with the Nats to get a really large deal.

So, (say) signing with a Japanese team of some affiliation is one way to do that; he can then argue this impacts the Nats rights, perhaps after the signing deadline.

Playing the game played with the Alvarez signing is another one, though the Nats likely are ready for that.

I'm sure he has another gambit or two up his sleeve.

While doing all this he also pursues the regular negotiation, because if he can get $20+ mil from the Nats it's not worth screwing around with the other stuff, likely.

No reason not to explore the wacky options if you are Boras, you really are mostly killing time for the next six weeks, seems to me, since his leverage is likely greatest right around the deadline.

I've always maintained that Boras would make a major-league contract a requirement of the deal, if only to get Strasburg's free agency clock to begin early.

Does a ML contract do this? From what I understand, it puts you on the 40-man, and starts using your option years earlier. But you don't start accruing service time until you're on the active roster, like everyone else.

Or maybe you were talking about Strasburg specifically, but I wouldn't think he was going to spend 3 yrs in the minors anyway.

I'm not really sure how many procedural loopholes there are left for Boras to exploit. Following the Travis Lee, et al fiasco 10+ years ago, the rules were revised to make it all but impossible for a prospect to be granted free agency as any sort of relief for any procedural mistakes. The "best" outcome would be remaining unsigned and have to enter next year's draft, which is the same that will happen if/when an agreement isn't reached by the deadline.

And I agree: the Alvarez "two minutes after midnight" BS isn't going to fly a second time around.

Does a ML contract do this? From what I understand, it puts you on the 40-man, and starts using your option years earlier. But you don't start accruing service time until you're on the active roster, like everyone else.

You are correct.

The Washington sports media has been writing about Strasburg like he's the baseball messiah come to save baseball in our nation's capitol.

I'm imagining a game in the rotunda now and game chatters suggesting the Lincoln statue has as much range as Jeter.

I wonder how much of Boras's bluster is intended as self-promotion to get new clients and how much is genuine negotiating tactics to get the aforementioned extra $5 million. Stan Kasten knows the Japanese industrial league threat is a joke, but would a high school kid with the proverbial million dollar arm and ten cent head understand this? Or would that kid see Boras as a brilliant tactician who will leave no stone unturned?

would a high school kid with the proverbial million dollar arm and ten cent head understand this? Or would that kid see Boras as a brilliant tactician who will leave no stone unturned?

Well it's not really the high school kid that he has to impress, it's the parents (more specifically, the father).

And yes, I'm sure that this type of BS impresses them.

Boras May Explore Japan for Strasburg

Nats fans wish him the same success as these explorers.

The worst-case scanario from a Nationals' perspective would be to have the draft ruled illegal.

That is unlikely to happen (and I think that's why Boras has never sought to do that); as I have pointed out elsewhere, the precedent of the Clarett case would likely be applicable.

-- MWE

If he goes unsigned, the Nationals fans will be very pissed.

I disagree. I think only one of them will be pissed. The other guy will keep going to the games.

the whole argument for Strasburg getting $50 mil is based on him being ready right now. If he were like other draftees, there'd be no talk of him getting $50 mil.

Do we really have to run through the litany of all of the ready-for-prime-time, super-great pitchers who flamed out? There are no sure thing prospects, and especially pitchers, and none of them is worth $50 million out of the box, or $30 million or even $20 million. Whatever the Nats pay will probably be an overpay.

Its going to be funny if Strasburg future is that of a closer.

Strasburg isn't going to get $50M. Never a realistic figure. However, all the talk probably makes it more likely that he gets closer to $20M than $10M, and that was the purpose from the start.

Strasburg will sign. It's a big risk to play elsewhere and risk injury, and $15M is too much money to pass up on the premise that there will be a better market next year when the overall MLB economy may be even weaker than it is today.

The aspect of this negotiation that hasn't been touched on yet is how much of this will be signing bonus, how much will be longish-term contract.

The $50 M scenario (completely unrealistic I agree) is one in which Strasburg is bought out now for his arb years and maybe a year of FA. That's a risky move but it's not necessarily that much riskier than other long arb buyout contracts for pitchers -- and we see those sorts of contracts all the time. For example, even before the recent extension, Dan Haren's pre-FA years were gonna cost about $20 M plus whatever he got as a signing bonus and that contract was signed when he had slightly less than 2 years of service time. Webb got a short-term buyout after 1 season and then his pre-FA years were finally bought out at $20 M. Way back in 2002 (2001 draft), Prior got an ML-contract for $10.5 M that covered up through his potential 5th season, with escalator clauses and opt-outs. (and you can call Prior a bust, but the Cubs got 660 IP of 123 ERA+ for $12 M ... the last opt-out was exercised ... over the life of that original contract, a perfectly fine outcome.)

It's 8 years later and if the Nats want to buy out some of Strasburg's arb years at a "discount" now, they are gonna have to do something in, at least, the $15-20 range. If they want to make it signing bonus and potentially pay through the nose when he hits arb, Boras will probably settle for less.

I think it comes down more to how good you think Strasburg is right now rather than what his potential is. If you think he's as good as Prior, Haren, Webb were in their early days, then you view it like an arb buyout -- and signing Strasburg for, say, 5/$15 or 6/$20 isn't appreciably riskier than the Webb/Haren/Prior buyouts (all pitchers are injury risks). If you think he's actually better than that (or he's as good as that with an enormous ceiling), you should be willing to go higher. If you're not confident enough in your assessment, then you push towards the big signing bonus approach.

I think a likely, plan is for Boras to try and get Washington to make a procedural error that sets Strasburg free. To make that happen, he has to cause some chaos while also negoiating (as a primary track) with the Nats to get a really large deal.

Agreed.
And, no - it's not where you're born that matters - there have been American-born/Dominican-raised kids signed as 7/2 fa's - and kids from non-draft nations that were drafted (like Curt Smith - he's from Curacao, but played @ Maine). That said, I don't think Boras has much of a leg to stand on here - nor is it worth it to Strasburg to make more than token attempts.
Lastly, IIRC, Strasburg's camp does not want him to debut 'til 2010.

Well it's not really the high school kid that he has to impress, it's the parents (more specifically, the father).

And yes, I'm sure that this type of BS impresses them.

I'm sure it impresses some of them.