Aside from being nowhere near as good a player as Carlos, Cody Ross is a rare Bats-R, Throws-L and those guys always look awkward and wrong to me. So I pick Beltran.

Meanwhile, Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets has just 21 home runs in over 500 at-bats, and while it is clear that Carlos is way more talented than Ross, he sure doesn’t play like it.

yes he does.

also back when Beltran had approximately as much service time as Ross does now he was paid $350,000 and $425,000.

Jesus, really?

Cody Ross?

Beltran.

Even when he's not hitting and drawing walks in droves, his defense is amazing and looks so effortless to the naked eye that I think we forget how good he is out there sometimes. 19/3 stealing bases this year too.

"Cake or death?"
"Cake, please."
"Oh, Okay."

The most insane thing about this article isn't even the comparison between Beltran and Ross, it's the assumption that a couple of “0-4’s” will lead to him sitting out the rest of the season on the bench.

Ross is a CF, who is hitting well above league average (though a bit light on OBP), and is good-to-great defensively. Who exactly are the Marlins going to trot out there that is any better?

it's the assumption that a couple of “0-4’s” will lead to him sitting out the rest of the season on the bench.

That could happen on some teams, just not a Florida Marlins team

Hey guys, I wrote the article.
I know Beltran is WAY more talented than Ross, I just think had he been a regular he could have 25 HR/85 RBI which is not bad for a guy who was sitting on the bench for.....Alfredo Amezaga, believe it or not.

Also, in the beginning of the year Amezaga was a full-time CF while Ross sat on the bench and got his 1 at bat per game.

I know Beltran is WAY more talented than Ross, I just think had he been a regular he could have 25 HR/85 RBI which is not bad for a guy who was sitting on the bench for

I assumed this was about the two having a fist fight or something.

Just reading the quote in the lead-in and not having any idea who Cody Ross is, I am going to guess that he is white.

EDIT: After checking ESPN's player page, it appears that I am correct. Congratulations Alex C, it seems you might have a future as a sportswriter...

Alex C, you must defend yourself against the accusation of racism without making it seem like you are offended by the accusation of racism...or this thread is doomed!

I just think had he been a regular he could have 25 HR/85 RBI which is not bad for a guy who was sitting on the bench for.....Alfredo Amezaga, believe it or not.

well that's not surprising, afterall AA did hit .263/.324/.358 last year and Cody Ross only hit .335/.411/.653 in 66 games...
But more importantly Ross' career line coming into 2008 was only .261/.331/.498 - and so the .263 AA ht in 2007 tops that, of course AA's career line was only .249/.314/.339 coming into 2008... so...

I was born in Venezuela and my all-time favorite player is Cuban.

Also, it is even possible to be a Marlins fan and also be racist?

overpaid, malcontent Carlos Beltran. No matter how terrible Beltran plays, he knows that he is going to get paid one way or another.

I guess this comes with being the signee of a huge contract... but I'm curious what beyond being highly compensated leads the writer of this piece to come to the conclusion that Beltran's a "malcontent" underachiever? The guy is a fantastic ballplayer, and I don't think I've ever seen him "dog" it.

I wasn't accusing you of racism and I don't care where you are from. I was pointing out that you basically called the white guy gritty and a gamer and the Hispanic guy talented but lazy. That's standard sportswriter speak and everyone here knows it. Others had already pointed out the ridiculousness of anyone saying they would take Cody Ross over Carlos Beltran for their team. Also, you called Beltran overpaid, he's not in baseball terms, and a malcontent, has there ever been a story about Beltran complaining? ever?

Also, it is even possible to be a Marlins fan and also be racist?

It is possible to be racist towards white people...

my all-time favorite player is Cuban.

Sure...Fidel Castro!!!! Commie.

I have always felt that it would be better to have a team full of fringe starters than a team full of superstar players. Fringe players know that they are a couple of o-fers away from the bench, so they always try to play like superstars. And superstars always suck, and worse yet, on purpose.

Victory, thy name is Catalanotto.

Also, it is even possible to be a Marlins fan and also be racist?

There's a Jeb Bush joke in there somewhere

has there ever been a story about Beltran complaining? ever?

There were a few months ago- apparently he didn't see eye to eye with Willie and wasn't shy about trying to go behind Willie's back-

but

1: He apparently wasn't alone
2: No Met fan supports Willie anymore.

Guys like Beltran, Andruw Jones, and Manny Ramirez are so damn talented that they can slack, goof off, or just not give a crap

You know this how? I've give you Andruw, given how fat he's gotten, but how do you know how hard Beltran, or Manny, work? During the offseason, before games? Working hard isn't just working hard in games. Someone who runs hard on groundballs, but doesn't do as much as he can to stay in shape, get stronger / faster, watch his diet, get enough rest / rehab, is also a slacker.

rfloh, actually I know that Manny is now working during the off season with Greg Brown, a former player in the Marlins' organization. I know because Brown lives a mile away from me. That still doesn't excuse what he did in his last few months in Boston.

Andruw, Cabrera, there is a lot of them that disappoint me. Still, at least Arod and Hanley don't fall into that category.

Something came up in another thread that I think is relevant. People who see superstars on a regular basis see how easy they can make things look and expect that the player can make every play look that way. That he should smack more HRs, that he should steal more bases, that he should get every tough liner. A little distance is needed.

I'm glad to see Ross finally enjoy some success. I remember when he was a pretty decent Tigers prospect, and between one thing and another he never exactly got a fair shot at a steady gig before now.

you basically called the white guy gritty and a gamer and the Hispanic guy talented but lazy.

Heck, he did more than that: Guys like Beltran, Andruw Jones, and Manny Ramirez are so damn talented that they can slack, goof off, or just not give a crap and Andruw, Cabrera, there is a lot of them that disappoint me

So of four people singled by name out for shame, there are three Hispanics and a black man. But at least Arod and Hanley don't fall into that category, so he has that going for him...

Also, you called Beltran...a malcontent, has there ever been a story about Beltran complaining? ever?

There was a huge blowup between Beltran and Tony Muser/Royals management in 2000, I believe over some injury and the rehab thereof (and perhaps hustling or lack thereof as well). That said, A) it was 8 years ago and B) arguing with the Mickey Mouse Royals of that era almost counts as a positive.

Only 1 season as the best player in the NL and two others in the top 15? Beltran is a slacker.

Beltran seems like a target for derision for some reason. I have an otherwise rational friend who refuses to believe he's anything but an average player, I think because he drafted him in a fantasy pool his first year with the Mets and was sorely disappointed.

I think Sizemore is the only CF I wouldn't straight up flip for him.

I think Sizemore is the only CF I wouldn't straight up flip for him.

Ellsbury?

I know Beltran is WAY more talented than Ross, I just think had he been a regular he could have 25 HR/85 RBI which is not bad for a guy who was sitting on the bench for.....Alfredo Amezaga, believe it or not.

There are approximately 6832 ways to make that perfectly salient point without pointlessly dragging Carlos Beltran into some ill-conceived NO MAS showdown and making it sound like you'd actually prefer Ross' brief spate of success over the established all-around excellence of one of the best CFs in the game (even taking cost into account). And if you want blog traffic, just preface every post with pics of Erin Andrews standing around.

I've never understood why Beltran is considered a 'malcontent' or a 'killjoy.' Why, just because he doesn't show a lot of emotion?

Beltran plays hard, does everything he can do to help the team win (even if it may not be the right strategy i.e. bunting), and by all accounts is a good teammate. Murphy and Evans have both gushed about how much Beltran has helped them with defensive positioning.

Well Sizemore for Ellsbury really wouldn't be a "flip" since they are in fact carbon copies of one another

rfloh, actually I know that Manny is now working during the off season with Greg Brown, a former player in the Marlins' organization. I know because Brown lives a mile away from me.

Do you know how hard he works? I've seen reports, that even today, despite superstardom, he still does running with tires tied to himself, which is a GREAT, but very physically demanding exercise, during the offseason.

Andruw, Cabrera, there is a lot of them that disappoint me. Still, at least Arod and Hanley don't fall into that category.

Does Curt Schilling disappoint you?

I've seen reports, that even today, despite superstardom, he still does running with tires tied to himself, which is a GREAT, but very physically demanding exercise, during the offseason.
What's the big deal? CC Sabathia PLAYS with tires around his waist!

patiently

- the reason beltran sucks is because if he was any good, his batting average would be at least .300
- most people think that every "star" sucks if he doesn't hit .300
last year lance berkman couldn't get his BA over .260 for some reason and the "trade the fat malcontent" comments started flying

oh
forgot - beltran would need to hit 40 homers, steal 60 bases without getting caught AND catch every single fly ball hit

i think that people like watching the "gritty" guys. i would bet that if you did a poll of astros fans and ask - who would you rather have on the team, willy taveras with his bunt/infield hits and his SPEED or beltran that most of em would pick willy in a second.

actually willy taveras would be a real gritmeister if he had a last name like "smith" and a little bit less color

Even bbc is defending Beltran. Wow.

I think people have a hard time separating who they like from who is good

Frank Catalanatto was probably my all-time favourite Jay. But you didn't hear any complaining from me when they let him go. I like the marginal players, Craig Grebeck, Manny Lee, Tomas Perez...were all at various times favourites of mine, but I never let that cloud my eyes to the fact that they weren't in the same league as the Stars I didn't feel as personal an association with.

EDIT: I should add that this is just a general observation, clearly Cody Ross isn't in the class of marginal bench guys like Lee and Grebeck. He's a good player, just no Beltran.

AJM

well i personally HATE the *(%&#%! but i know he's an outstanding baseball player.

- grinning
if he REALLY sucked, i think i'd hate him not so much

and i agree with greg

people DO have a hard time with "good" - just because you like a guy who can run fast enough to beat out high choppers and you'd rather watch him than a guy who always hits singles where they ain't does not mean that he is a good ballplayer

i personally just LUUUUUVVVVV wandy rodriguez but i am not dumb enuf to think he is any johan

I still think Beltran gets a lot of unfair grief today because he looked at strike 3 to end the NLCS in '06. Some Mets fan friends of mine still haven't forgiven him for that.

That may have been the most memorable strikeout I've ever seen, and I'm not even a Mets or Cardinals fan. That was just such a fun series, I was shocked that that was how it ended.

his defense is amazing and looks so effortless to the naked eye that I think we forget how good he is out there sometimes. 19/3 stealing bases this year too.

Has anyone else noticed a trend in mainstream fan analysis in which the better known a player is, the more shallow the analysis?

A young or average player is evaluated honestly ... "he's got some pop," "he runs well," "he's got a great arm," "he makes contact" or whatever. But once a player becomes a fulltime starter, and especially after he becomes an established star, all of that scouting goes out the window. The only criterion for success becomes how well he supposedly hits in the clutch.

A guy like Beltran, who adds massive value in the non-hitting portions of his game, gets really screwed in this type of analysis. But just yesterday I saw a discussion rage on a Mets board about his value versus Carlos Delgado's with nary a comment on Beltran's gargantuan lead in speed and defense. It was all just, "Delgado's more clutch."

It is only when a player has reached a certain level of familiarity that they are subject to this reductive analysis.

I think Sizemore is the only CF I wouldn't straight up flip for him.

I'd much rather have Granderson going forward as well. Upton and Jones would be close I think, but in the Mets situation I think you'd pass.

A month or so back I was at Johan's complete game against the Cardinals and I saw Beltran make the most insane catch I've ever seen in person. Ludwick hit a screaming line drive over the centerfield fence, and Beltran went over the wall and caught it on it's way down a good 2 feet past the fence to haul it in for an out. It was an amazing play, made even more amazing with the fact that Beltran didn't even look like he was trying.

When you're so good that everything looks effortless, you're not going to get the credit you deserve for being that good because everyone thinks you could be better. it's BS.

Clearly the article is actually making the point that once Cody gets a decent contract he'll stop trying and such as much as Beltran.

Ross is a CF....and is good-to-great defensively.

Really? I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. If he is, then he might be the slowest above-average CF in major league history.

BTW - to Cody Ross, if you're reading this thread, Jim Norton called and wants his face back.

Cody Ross is a rare Bats-R, Throws-L and those guys always look awkward and wrong to me.

Rickey says Rickey looks neither awkward nor wrong.

Upton and Jones would be close I think, but in the Mets situation I think you'd pass.

Adam Jones?

It has been said before but Beltran's main problem is that he is not great at one thing. He has plus power (25 homers) but doesn't lead the league. He has decent batting average, but good OBP. He has great speed, almost never gets caught stealing, but doesn't run that much. He is a good defender at a premium position. He is a top 20 player in a down year, top 10 in a good year.

He is a top 20 player in a down year, top 10 in a good year.

Subtly different, but I think defensible.

It has been said before but Beltran's main problem is that he is not great at one thing. He has plus power (25 homers) but doesn't lead the league. He has decent batting average, but good OBP. He has great speed, almost never gets caught stealing, but doesn't run that much. He is a good defender at a premium position. He is a top 20 player in a down year, top 10 in a good year.

I think that is absolutely accurate. The other thing that throws people off is that people expect him to repeat his 2004 or 2006 season every year when those seasons are basically aberations. So every year he doesn't hit 35 homers and steal 30 bases is a disappointment. Oh and his 2005 season got him off to a bad start with the Mets, and I'm not sure his reputation with Mets fans has fully recovered.

Uh, he's the best defense CF in the game and has been over his whole career.

Since Beltran has become a Met, 31 CFs have accumulated 1000+PAs:
Cnt Player OPS+ PA
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+----+
1 Grady Sizemore 128 2835
2 Carlos Beltran 124 2508
3 Curtis Granderson 121 2050
4 Torii Hunter 115 2210
5 Mike Cameron 114 2043
6 Jim Edmonds 113 1746
7 Johnny Damon 112 2501
8 B.J. Upton 112 1317
9 Andruw Jones 108 2234
10 Vernon Wells 108 2362
11 Nate McLouth 105 1378
12 Marlon Byrd 104 1320
13 Aaron Rowand 103 2294
14 Kenny Lofton 103 1487
15 David DeJesus 102 2261
16 Gary Matthews 98 2200
17 Dave Roberts 96 1575
18 Brady Clark 94 1290
19 Coco Crisp 93 2044
20 Mark Kotsay 91 1780
21 Bernie Williams 90 1008
22 Chris Young 88 1304
23 Melky Cabrera 84 1595
24 Jeremy Reed 79 1024
25 Cory Sullivan 79 1044
26 Juan Pierre 78 2565
27 Alfredo Amezaga 76 1117
28 Willy Taveras 74 2121
29 Steve Finley 72 1023
30 Corey Patterson 71 1794
31 Joey Gathright 67 1220
And he's a better defensive CF than most of the players on the list.
As a Met fan I have no complaints

Adam Jones?

Yeah. He actually has been worse than I thought, though. I wouldn't trade him for Beltran if I ran the O's, but the Mets shouldn't consider the deal either right now.

Adam Jones?

Now I like Adam Jones. He might be a great player. But Beltran is still only in his age 31 season. Cost issues aside, would you really trade the rest of Beltran's future for the rest of Adam Jones'? I just don't see it. That's like trading Beltran's future for Milledge's.

Uh, he's the best defense CF in the game and has been over his whole career.

I always thought Andruw Jones rated better, while he was under 300 pounds at least.

I always thought Andruw Jones rated better,

He was excellent up until about 2004 or so, and then he declined.

Here's what Poz had to say about Beltran and I think he is absolutely right.



Watching him play every single day, it's hard not to think how much BETTER he could be. That's because you see him do amazing things on a fairly regular basis. And you wonder why he doesn't do those all the time. You see him run down an impossible-to-reach fly ball and you can start to think that he should catch every fly ball. You see him hit homers righty and lefty and you might think he should be able to hit them on command. You see him steal bases with such ease and success and you think he should steal 100 every year. And because of all that, he goes out and wins a Gold Glove in centerfield, scores 111 runs, drives in 109 runs, cracks 38 doubles, hits 25 homers, steals 23 bases, walks 90 times -- that's what he is on pace to do this year -- and the least impressed person in the house is the one who saw him play the most times.

He was excellent up until about 2004 or so
Are you referring to the year or his weight?

I think Sizemore is the only CF I wouldn't straight up flip for him.

I take it you misspelt Edmonds/Johnson as "Sizemore" there. :-)

just preface every post with pics of Erin Andrews standing around.

Exactly. How about Cody Ross's wife/girlfriend? Is she hot? Work her into this somehow.

I assume that, like the rest of his game, Beltran's wife/girlfriend is just well above-average but not great. :-)

And because of all that, he goes out and wins a Gold Glove in centerfield, scores 111 runs, drives in 109 runs, cracks 38 doubles, hits 25 homers, steals 23 bases, walks 90 times -- that's what he is on pace to do this year -- and the least impressed person in the house is the one who saw him play the most times.

Well, I happen to think he is absolutely wrong; in fact, I think it is one of the most moronic things I've ever read. If the least impressed person in the house is the one who saw him play the most times, it has to be the one who has been watching and paying almost no attention, and instead just got drunk during the game and then listened to Mike and the Mad Dog rant on the radio about how overrated Beltran is and somehow became convinced they know WTF they are talking about.

Which they don't. Anyone who really watches Beltran play the most, and cares to pay attention, is the MOST impressed. Because that fan knows who truly great Beltran is, how those stats were accumulated, and how incredibly valuable he is to the Mets. That fan knows how Beltran is worth every penny, and how deep the shitpile would be in which the Mets would find themselves if they didn't have Carlos Beltran.

He is a victim of those who don't pay attention, who don't see him play, but pretend they do.

He is a victim of those who don't pay attention, who don't see him play, but pretend they do.

Agreed.

He also has this consistent stoic look on his face that, for whatever reason, is never interpreted as fearlessness or maturity but always as apathy. But that has nothing to do with his play on the field.

Poz prefaced that with:

there might also be a little something to be gained from distance

... so I think he is saying Beltran is great, it's just that you appreciate it more when you take it in from afar. That aspect of it of course can be debated, but I think he is trying to compliment Beltran the player, not insult him.

We had this discussion a bit before... I felt that the other Mets fans were being a little sanguine about the idea that we signed Beltran to put up a 120 OPS+ and expecting more than that was somehow misguided from the very beginning. It would have been nice for him to get better for the Mets than he had been for the Royals/Astros. And it was a reasonable expectation that that would happen, given his age and an extremely well-rounded game that seemed to be the definition of one that would age well. He was IMHO paid with that expectation. Except for the one huge year, that hasn't happened. It's still fine. The reasons I don't care are that 1) he's really, really ridiculously good anyway, 2) the team will always have much larger problems than him to solve (see #1), 3) he's not going anywhere in any event (see #1 and 2, plus the size of the contract), and 4) even if we're slightly overpaying him, we're in NY so who cares.

As for TFA, I'm just completely baffled. Whether or not one thinks Andruw or Manny does in fact give less than 100%, at least one could construct the argument if asked to. I have zero clue where this criticism even comes from with respect to Beltran.

Some Mets fan friends of mine still haven't forgiven him for that.

Neither has he...

Beltran's wife/girlfriend is just well above-average but not great

Is that the "Pam Beasley" factor?

I understand what Poz is saying though. Beltran plays such an effortless graceful game that you expect great things from him. I have no doubt that Beltran is trying his hardest and doing his best but it's just how he looks.

The game of baseball isn't easy. Beltran just makes it seem easy.

Maybe he should bash a water cooler or two

Really? I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. If he is, then he might be the slowest above-average CF in major league history.

I don't pretend to watch the Marlins enough to give you an accurate scouting report on him, but all the defensive stats I've looked at love him.

Now I like Adam Jones. He might be a great player. But Beltran is still only in his age 31 season.

Sort of speaking of which, what do y'all think C-Belt needs to do to get into the Hall? I get the feeling, consistent with some things several posters have mentioned, that he's going to be underrated by HOF voters. My guess is he'll need in the neighborhood of 1500 runs and 1500 RBIs to make it.

I would say that he needs much more than that. You have to consider that, today, rare is the "we're watching a HOFer in action" statement made in reference to Beltran. Which makes it an uphill climb. So unless he steps it up a notch or becomes an ultra-beloved NY hero quick, he needs to keep producing through age 40 and rack up some un-ignorable totals.

1,500 RBI territory is McGriff, Dawson, Parker, Baines territory as much as it is Schmidt or McCovey territory. It's a huge number but under the threshhold where the hundreds of writers who just follow their gut say "I can't ignore the numbers." 1,700 is where Beltran needs to be.

1,500 RBI territory is McGriff, Dawson, Parker, Baines territory as much as it is Schmidt or McCovey territory. It's a huge number but under the threshhold where the hundreds of writers who just follow their gut say "I can't ignore the numbers."

While it is impressive that a very good defensive CF has RBI totals compared to corner position players, HOF voters don't seem to differentiate all that much. He'll also get dinged for his batting average, which is currently .280 and most likely will go nowhere but down as he declines. Only 4 all star games at the moment.

1,500 RBI territory is McGriff, Dawson, Parker, Baines territory as much as it is Schmidt or McCovey territory. It's a huge number but under the threshhold where the hundreds of writers who just follow their gut say "I can't ignore the numbers." 1,700 is where Beltran needs to be.

I think Beltran is going to end up being a HOFer. He's been a full time player since he was 22 years old and is going to end up with some huge counting stats as long as he stays healthy and ages well, which I think he will.

Beltran is going to get benefit for being a Gold Glove centerfielder and sticking in center for most of his career.

I could imagine him slow and rickety like Dawson in his mid 30s. If his SB totals dropped below 10 yearly and he moved over to RF, that would just about eliminate his candidacy. He could end his career like Reggie Sanders, a solid .265/25/80 guy for years but nobody's idea of a HOFer.

I could also imagine him as one of those forever young types, still running into the gap like a gazelle at age 40.

No idea really.

I would say that he needs much more than that. You have to consider that, today, rare is the "we're watching a HOFer in action" statement made in reference to Beltran.

This is my impression as well. I just checked his Black Ink total in BBRef. One. Wow. Just one.

1,700 is where Beltran needs to be.

Well, for whatever stock you put in this, 5 of his closest comps by age did knock in 700+ runs from Beltran's age on. 1700's a ##### to get to, though. Hawk, at 1591, is highest on the RBI career list for CFers or sortof CFers without getting in, and The Belt's already got 400 more games played in CF. A quick look tells me the next lowest CFer who didn't make the HOF has less than 1300 RBIs (!)

***

While it is impressive that a very good defensive CF has RBI totals compared to corner position players, HOF voters don't seem to differentiate all that much. He'll also get dinged for his batting average, which is currently .280 and most likely will go nowhere but down as he declines. Only 4 all star games at the moment.

I think you're right, in that CFers seems to get held to a higher standard, one that doesn't adjust as much for position (though my memory could be off on that). 4 AS games isn't a lot, nor is 2GG, the latter which makes me think this...

Beltran is going to get benefit for being a Gold Glove centerfielder and sticking in center for most of his career.

...may be a little optimistic. You and I think he's a GG, but the voters usually find someone they like better. I suspect you're right, that he'll age well, but he does seem to get more than his share of dings, which concerns me some.

You and I think he's a GG, but the voters usually find someone they like better. I suspect you're right, that he'll age well, but he does seem to get more than his share of dings, which concerns me some.

Beltran is winning a GG every year he plays over 100 games until he becomes a lousy hitter. Like Andruw Jones. This is probably the first year Jones doesn't get one.

I'd be nervous if Beltran had only won once, but he's all but certain to get his third in a row this year. The combination of good offense and playing in a large market is going to make him break a lot of ties over his career.

I could imagine him slow and rickety like Dawson in his mid 30s.

No artificial turf for Beltran.

That still doesn't excuse what he did in his last few months in Boston.

I'm having a hard time remembering the times Manny dogged it on the field. There was the bizarro way he got himself traded, but when he was actually on the field he had a near 1000 OPS. But then not knowing what you're talking about seems to be a trend with you.

1,500 RBI territory is McGriff, Dawson, Parker, Baines territory as much as it is Schmidt or McCovey territory.

Well, 1500 RBI territory is different than 1500 RBI and 1500 R territory. Assuming Biggio makes it and not counting Rose and Palmeiro, everyone except a couple deadball guys with 1600+ runs is in the HoF. There are some in the 1500-1600 range who I think may have a tough time -- Raines, Sheffield, and obviously Lofton. Raines and Lofton are under 1000 RBI though. Raines would be a pretty good comp for Beltran though and I don't think he's getting in though Beltran's CF experience may make him more likely in the voters' eyes.

But, barring a significant collapse (which I think is reasonably likely actually), Beltran seems a lock for 1600+ runs and a near-lock for 1500+ RBI. Add in that this will presumably be his 8th season with 100+ RBI (I wouldn't have guessed that) and his chances look pretty good.

But they probably shouldn't. Or at least they probably shouldn't unless you do give him a big boost for defense (which he probably deserves). But right now he's just at a 117 OPS+. Even for a CF, that's pretty light for the HoF and presumably he will decline. His top B-R comps are Dawson and Murphy -- both on clear HoF tracks through age 30 but both were better hitters, especially Murphy. The other guys on his list were much better hitters (but mostly not CF). His 10 comps have a combined OPS+ of 129, so it's not a particularly good list. (It's hilarious that Greg Luzinski shows up on Beltran's sims list -- could you find two more different players?)

So, keep an eye on Raines. I suspect Beltran will need an MVP or some Puckettish postseason glory to make the HoF. I know, that's not the direction I was going at the beginning. But I'll admit to being a bit baffled how a guy with "just" a 115ish OPS+ is on pace for 1700 R and 1700 RBI -- sometimes I'm still surprised how much the game has changed. I'll admit, I don't envy the voters over this next decade having to deal with steroids infamy (well, much of this they created for themsleves) and unprecedented offensive levels.

So, keep an eye on Raines. I suspect Beltran will need an MVP or some Puckettish postseason glory to make the HoF.

Isn't the 2004 playoffs enough of a postseason mark?

I do agree that Beltran is something of an odd case. He is putting up huge counting stats despite a less than stellar OPS+. Edmonds is likely going to have a much more difficult time getting in despite the fact that he'll have arguably the better career by the time both are finished playing.

Better career? No chance.

Better peak? Perhaps. If one ignores a middle-of-the-order hitter's inability to hit with RISP.