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Tuesday, June 02, 2009

wezen-ball: Predicting the Next “Team of the Decade”

or…Gregg Olson: The heights of career starvation.

The team that he seems to land on is a good team, and one with little room for debate. Some might wonder, for example, about Roger Clemens (he’s as worthy as Pedro, I suspect) and whether Barry played enough in the decade to warrant inclusion, but that’s all pretty minor. When you break it down position-by-position like that, the choices become pretty obvious.

Are the choices as obvious looking forward, though? As you can imagine, these “Team of the Decade” articles are pretty common every ten years (the most amazing thing about Rob’s and Matt’s pieces are that they remind us that it’s already time for us to come up with yet another one… not that I’m complaining!). I remember it happening in 1999 (when we also had the “All Century Team”), and I know for a fact it was happening in 1989-90 and even earlier. We’ve all heard it countless times in reference to Jack Morris and his HOF candidacy, after all.

What’s more rare than the retrospective “All Decade Team”, though, is the predictive “All Decade Team”. In the 1990 Sporting News Baseball Yearbook, the editors do both. After coming up with their own “All 1980s Team”, they take it a step further and try to predict who will be the “All 1990s Team”. The article was published in January/February of 1990, so it’s impossible for them to be spot on. Neither of the two catchers of the decade, Ivan Rodriguez or Mike Piazza, for example, were even in professional baseball yet. Plus, the editors seemed to be a little too impressed by the 1989 rookie class. Still, there’s enough there worth looking at, so here we go:

Repoz Posted: June 02, 2009 at 07:35 PM | 31 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:10 PM (#3203754)
Just for fun:

C Matt Wieters
1B Matt LaPorta
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B David Wright
SS Jimmy Rollins
LF Mike Stanton
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Jason Heyward
SP Tim Lincecum
RP Joba Chamberlain

Probably too prospect-heavy.
   2. bpasinko Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:18 PM (#3203775)
I'd still say Pujols will be 1b.
   3. Al Kaline Trio Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:19 PM (#3203779)
No way Jimmy Rollins. Probably Hanley.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:26 PM (#3203790)
I don't think Hanley will be playing shortstop a few years from now.
   5. Davo the Magnificent Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:32 PM (#3203803)
Rollins turns 31 this year, and very few players with his skill-set have remained productive shortstops through their mid-late 30s (Larkin, Trammell..... anyone?)
I'm with #3.
   6. Kant Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:33 PM (#3203807)
Any respectable list has to have Justin Upton on it.
   7. bpasinko Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:37 PM (#3203813)
Any respectable list has to have Justin Upton on it.

Yea good call, especially considering he's arguably the best RF right now.
   8. Tuque Posted: June 02, 2009 at 08:57 PM (#3203834)
One might argue for Longoria over Wright. It'd be a risky pick, but one I might take.

edit: and Greinke over Lincecum maybe, partially because Lincecum's mechanics are so weird.
   9. Al Kaline Trio Posted: June 02, 2009 at 09:02 PM (#3203843)
I might go Braun in LF.
   10. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: June 02, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3203853)
They really picked Bo Jackson over Bonds? I know Barry didn't become BARRY until 1990, but he was still pretty good, and a far more accomplished baseball player than Bo F Jackson.
   11. Bhaakon Posted: June 02, 2009 at 09:52 PM (#3203887)
I totally thought this would be about predicting the next c. 90's Braves.
   12. Obama Bomaye Posted: June 02, 2009 at 10:12 PM (#3203912)
You mean c. 90s Yankees? ('99 Series decided that title)
   13. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: June 02, 2009 at 10:15 PM (#3203922)
I totally thought this would be about predicting the next c. 90's Braves.


me too
   14. Obama Bomaye Posted: June 02, 2009 at 10:15 PM (#3203923)
RP Joba Chamberlain

I see what you did there. And I don't care for it.
   15. Jeff K. Posted: June 02, 2009 at 10:22 PM (#3203937)
But Misirlou, Bo was just such a freaking specimen. Hell, as the writer points out, even *after* the debilitating hip injury, Bo hit 60 HRs in 294 games over 4 years and put up a 119 OPS+. I can't fault them for just saying "Sky's the limit" with him.
   16. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: June 02, 2009 at 10:40 PM (#3203985)
I can't fault them for just saying "Sky's the limit" with him.


I can. 510 strikeouts/101 walks, sub .300 OBP through age 26 says Juan Samuel is the limit.

Hell, as the writer points out, even *after* the debilitating hip injury, Bo hit 60 HRs in 294 games over 4 years and put up a 119 OPS+.


The writer is wrong. Jackson was injured in Jan 1991. From 1991- 1994, Jackson hit 32 HR in 183 games and put up an OPS+ of 104.
   17. Jeff K. Posted: June 02, 2009 at 10:55 PM (#3204015)
Oh, now that I reread, he notes the proper date for the injury and yet gives 1990-1994 numbers.
   18. Blackadder Posted: June 02, 2009 at 11:21 PM (#3204104)
Sean Smith's numbers have Bonds as a tremendous fielder and baserunner from 1986-1989, so good that he was actually one of the best players in baseball even before he became BONDS.
   19. Hugh Jorgan Posted: June 02, 2009 at 11:28 PM (#3204132)
C Matt Wieters
1B Matt LaPorta
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B David Wright
SS Jimmy Rollins
LF Mike Stanton
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Jason Heyward
SP Tim Lincecum
RP Joba Chamberlain

Probably too prospect-heavy


Gee you reckon? Is Mauer going to retire in the next 4 years? If not, then the catcher's slot will be his.
   20. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: June 02, 2009 at 11:29 PM (#3204137)
Sean Smith's numbers have Bonds as a tremendous fielder and baserunner from 1986-1989, so good that he was actually one of the best players in baseball even before he became BONDS.


Yeah, that's my point. Picking a 26 year old Jackson to outperform a 24 year old Bonds over the next decade was ridiculous, even before taking into account the increased likelihood of injury had Bo continued to play football.
   21. Jeff K. Posted: June 02, 2009 at 11:44 PM (#3204183)
Of course I agree that Bonds was the clear choice, and yep, he was probably inner circle before 73. I'm just cutting some slack for Bo. And I'm nobody's idea of a Bo fan.
   22. Blackadder Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:02 AM (#3204252)
I guess Bo was just so unique people didn't think clearly about him. I still think it was ridiculous.

I wonder who people would have picked for the 2000's. Looking at the list on Neyer's site for the sake of argument, Vlad and ARod look like the only players who would have likely been picked, and possibly Jeter if the predictors get a second shortstop by virtue of ARod's position change. Nomar would have probably finished ahead of Jeter. This sort of thing is very hard.
   23. baudib Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:13 AM (#3204282)
You have to remember what a sensation Bo was. He was seemingly entering the prime of his career, and he was, honestly, making great strides every year. And still there was the excitement of what seemed to be unlimited potential. It seemed like he could steal 80 bases or hit 60 homers. He could run on outfield walls, sideways, and break bats like a twig. Whereas Bonds was merely the third-best player on a mediocre Pirates team who was much more famous for being the son of a former player.
   24. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:24 AM (#3204315)
This sort of thing is very hard.


Sure it is. Sure the best catcher of the teens looks to be Joe Mauer, just like in 1979 the best SS of the 80's looked to be Garry Templeton. Or, the best catcher of the teens may be in low A ball, just like the best catcher of the 90's was in 1989.
   25. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:36 AM (#3204343)
You have to remember what a sensation Bo was.


I remember. It was mostly hype, which I never bought into. In his best year, he struck out 172 times in 561 ABs. That's Ryan Howard bad, but with fewer than half the walks and HR.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:38 AM (#3204347)
Is Mauer going to retire in the next 4 years? If not, then the catcher's slot will be his.

I'm not sure you should count on him being a C 4 years from now. Certainly Wieters has a better chance of being a C 2010-19 than Mauer does. Which isn't to say that I'd put Wieters #1. And if we're going to gamble on Mauer, we have to include McCann in this discussion too.

I'll put Pujols at 1B. I will go with Longoria at 3B for his edge in defense and age over Wright. There's no way Rollins is the next decade's SS, Reyes or Hanley are much better choices and one of the recent stud SS prospects is bound to stick. Elvis Andrus as a longshot choice.

Stanton and Heyward strike me as ridiculous stretches. They might end up being right but it strikes me as kinda nutty to pick them. It's one thing to look at a stud C/2B/SS prospect and predict that they'll out-perform the 2 or 3 good young Cs already in the majors. But to suggest that two corner prospects are going to outperform the dozen or so good, young, established corner guys -- a silly bet.

Of course, no idea who I'd pick other than Francoeur.
   27. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:39 AM (#3204348)
The site guys come up with this:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Dustin Pedroia
3B: Evan Longoria
SS: Hanley Ramirez
LF: Ryan Braun
CF: Grady Sizemore
RF: Nick Markakis
SP: Tim Lincecum
RP: Joakim Soria

I might also stick Wright in there over Longoria, although maybe Longoria plays better D. Hard one to get wrong, which probably means it'll end up being Ramiro Pena or something. I also think you have to find a spot for Justin Upton, I'd put him or Markakis. I don't know about Soria, he's been outstanding but relievers...
   28. Big Train Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:39 AM (#3204349)
In 1989, if someone told me Bo Jackson hit the ball 600 feet, I would not have questioned it. I still haven't seen anyone like Bo Jackson.
   29. Ball Point Pen Guy (Will Young) Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:47 AM (#3204369)
Chairman Mauer scoffs at Matt Weiters. Let's see that Weiters punk hit 12 homeruns in a month.

In 1989, if someone told me Bo Jackson hit the ball 600 feet, I would not have questioned it. I still haven't seen anyone like Bo Jackson.

I was at a game when Bo Jackson hit an upper-deck HR to rightfield in the Metrodome. He's still the only right-handed hitter to ever reach the upper deck in the Dome.
   30. JJ1986 Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:48 AM (#3204370)
I like Miguel Cabrera at first.
   31. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: June 03, 2009 at 12:55 AM (#3204393)
Gee you reckon? Is Mauer going to retire in the next 4 years? If not, then the catcher's slot will be his


*Gasp* Somebody just dissed teh Wieters!
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