Nevermind. Apparently, *nobody* can be bothered to get it right.

While it's not perfect (It's a model, just like IS=LM or Y=C+I+G+X is in macroeconomics), I've been curious as to how James stumbled upon it. Earnshaw Cook had his formula (which escapes me at the moment) and Pete Palmer basically divided the run differential by 10 to get wins above/below .500. I think someone once explained to me how James came up with it, but I've forgotten over the years. IIRC, it wasn't anything fancy, it may've been trial and error.

Gary:

I believe it was just trial and error. Bill was on a call-in radio show over a decade ago and somebody asked him and he said he was just fussing with pencil and paper over different ways, tried that, noticed that it came pretty close and then looked at it in macro and found it generated pretty reasonable outcomes.

But then Bill has typically understated his efforts when discussing work.

That sounds like the story that I heard, Harveys. I'm more impressed in some ways by someone who is able to come up with stuff like that on their own without an advanced degree or computing power than a guy like Pete Palmer (who is impressive in his own right.)

By the way, I think "Bamberger Helper" is my favorite of your nicknames so far.

Bamberger.

So you guys are saying that Pythagoras didn't come up with the Pythagorian Theorem?

Mathematicians is scammers. I now understand why Nobel didn't care for them.

Gary:

I thought Bill had a Phd in math from the University of Kansas?

Which is why he was working as a security guy on night shift............

Thanks, Matt. That's my niche: funny handles. I can't discuss race relations or delve into hardcore stats at the level some here can do, but I found something that I'm good at.

Harveys: he had a dual major of English and Econ, but I think that it was at the undergrad level.

According to the omniscient Wiki, James has degrees in econ, English, and education, but none in math and likely no post-grad.

Ya'know I am old as dirt so maybe my memory is going south. I could have sworn I read that way back in one of the abstracts.

Now Bill DID take advantage of computers early on to run his simualations of seasons, leagues, etc. THAT I am sure of.

As I wrote in a comment against my front page article here, there have been only three teams prior to 2007 who posted winning percentages of .550 or greater while being outscored. All three teams - the 1932 Pirates, 1984 Mets, and 1997 Giants - maintained similar winning percentages in the following season, and except for a fallback by the Pirates in 1934, all three teams maintained similar or better winning percentages for a number of years after the season in question.

I sent this information to Mr. Wright and invited him to comment here.

-- MWE

Better dead German mathematician says "you never know".
Almost none of the people posting baseball probability theorems know anything about probability.

Better dead German mathematician says "you never know".

A Dominican mathematician translated that from "sienieverstehen."

Yet another article on AZ's "Overachievers" and their Crash Test Dummy in left field...

Dbacks not playing numbers game

"We certainly have heard a lot about run differential," Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes said in an e-mail after Thursday's 8-4 Arizona win, "but some of our other indicators are positive: Winning record in all six months; improving offense in the second half, especially September; many of the formula-schewing runs were allowed in blowout situations. Pythag still is an important tool, but we are happy to be an exception to the rule. After all, we had a plus differential and losing record after the All-Star break last year. Nobody seemed to put much stock in that."

Of course it should be noted that Byrnes responded from a Blackberry, so it should be of some relief to the stat heads that the men in charge at least haven't surrendered all their number-crunching tools.

The horror, the horror...

Mathematical Derivation of Pyth formula, baseball version: http://www.math.brown.edu/~sjmiller/math/papers/PythagWonLoss_Paper.pdf

Credit where it's due...

Sports statisticians have developed an equation based on the Pythagorean theorem... to predict the number of games a team should win based on point or run differential.

Pensacola News Journal headlines throughout history:

550 B.C.
ANONYMOUS MATHEMATICIANS DEVELOP EQUATION TO PREDICT LENGTH OF "HYPOTENUSE"
Has Something To Do With "Numbers," Says Nerd

April 16, 1865
IMPORTANT MAN FATALLY SHOT DURING PLAY
Slain Dignitary May Have Fought To Preserve Something-or-other

Sept. 2, 1939
POLAND INVADED BY UNKNOWN COUNTRY
Experts Predict Hostile Act Could Be Beginning of Something

July 21, 1969
SOME DUDE WALKS ON MOON
Spaceship Took Years to Build, Says Gov't Agency

October 30, 2007
TEAM WINS WORLD SERIES
Credit Talent, Perseverance With Victory

Gary,

The story I hear about the formula is that he started from a mistaken premise: He thought he remembered the formula from one of his courses. Then as he started to play around with it, damned if it didn't work pretty well.

Byrnes better be careful not to drive his car into a lake...

By the way, I think "Bamberger Helper" is my favorite of your nicknames so far.

Yeah, it is good. I also like "Successfully Evading Natural Selection Since 1965" but Brattain is clearly on a different level than most of us.

Why a dead Greek mathematician says the D-Backs won’t win it all

But Bob Melvin has an Archimedes death ray. And Archimedes kicks ass on all other kinds of dead Greek mathmeticians.

But Bob Melvin has an Archimedes death ray. And Archimedes kicks ass on all other kinds of dead Greek mathmeticians.

Yeah, but knowing the volume ratio of spheres and cylinders is hardly useful in baseball.

Yeah, but knowing the volume ratio of spheres and cylinders is hardly useful in baseball.

Depends on what you do with those spheres and cylinders. I hear Bob Melvin has a lever that causes the entire batters box to drop or rise 6 inches whenever an opposing hitter swings at a plate. And if you want proof, you clearly didn't see Alfonso Soriano last night.

Besides, I don't see Mythbusters doing experiments revolving around gemotry boy. Nor can I spell geometry. Oh, I think I can then.

Billy Beane never should have written that book whose text does not survive.

October 30, 2007
TEAM WINS WORLD SERIES
Credit Talent, Perseverance With Victory

Did a player from this team state that everybody counted them out, but they kept believing in themselves?

Byrnes better be careful not to let his car drive him into a lake...

And Archimedes never should have written that baseball abstract...