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Sunday, September 07, 2008

Will the 250,000th Home Run be Hit Today?

I know it’s bad form to use the keys to plug your own stuff, but it is the start of the NFL season and a few weeks from the nitty gritty of the pennant race, so I figured baseball fans might need something to do today. And I could really use some help as well. By the best accounting available, there were 249,969 regular season home runs hit from 1876 to the end of play yesterday. Given there are fifteen games today (The Orioles have no Sunday game scheduled?) and the league averages just over two home runs a game we could get to #250,000 sometime late today. There were 40+ hit yesterday. I am hoping to keep a running log on BBTF today so that with some exactness we can determine just who hit #250,000. Thank you for any help you are willing to provide.

Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 12:49 PM | 200 comment(s)
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1. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:12 PM (#2931756)

Baltimore's game was moved to Saturday because of opening day for the RAvens but then it got rained out.

2. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:29 PM (#2931770)

I've set up a little script that downloads a live scoreboard every 30 seconds, and I'm logging that, so we should be in good shape to at least recreate the ordering after the fact.

3. JJ1986 Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2931786)

Lastings Milledge hit the first home run of the day about a minute ago.

4. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2931788)

#249,970 - Milledge (WAS) homered

5. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#2931789)

Soriano just missed being the first to homer today.

6. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:56 PM (#2931790)

2 other games, no homers.

7. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:29 PM (#2931816)

Pujols at 2:29

8. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2931822)

Dusty Ryan a couple of minutes ago.

9. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2931825)

Dusty Ryan (who?)

10. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2931828)

#249,971 - Albert Pujols (STL) homered (2:30)

At this rate we are not going to hit 250,000 today.

11. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2931830)

Mike Jacobs

12. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:35 PM (#2931833)

Dusty Ryan (who?)

2.500 career OPS

13. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:37 PM (#2931837)

#249,972 - Dusty Ryan (DET) (2:37)
#249,973 - Mike Jacobs (FLA) (2:38)

14. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:38 PM (#2931841)

At this rate we are not going to hit 250,000 today.

Be patient. Most games are just getting underway and the starters are in. I expect the homers to start coming later.

Sean do you have a historical breakdown by inning for homers? I seem to recall Vincent having it in his book but I don't have it around. How about just in the last 5 years or so? I know one can do it on a team by team basis but is it possible to do a whole league or era?

15. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#2931851)

Since 1999. You can figure out which innings have the top of the order up most. Sixth is probably due to the relievers coming in.

| Innings | HRs |
+---------+------+
| 1 | 6109 |
| 2 | 5622 |
| 3 | 5846 |
| 4 | 6487 |
| 5 | 5846 |
| 6 | 6546 |
| 7 | 5578 |
| 8 | 5261 |
| 9 | 3907 |
| extra | 836 |
</pre>

16. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:46 PM (#2931853)

Thanks

4th innings looks to be the top order seeing that starter a second time around and the sixth because of relievers and a tiring starter.

17. pthomas Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:57 PM (#2931869)

Somewhere in my archives of books I have what appears to be the "press kit" (or whatever you would like to call it) from a Tootsie Roll promotion for MLB's 1,000,000th run.

It turned out to be quite a day for baseball....

By Alyson Footer / MLB.com

HOUSTON -- He batted .295 over nearly two decades, amassed 1,825 hits, hit 184 homers and drove in 989 runs. But in the book "Who's Who in Baseball History," the first sentence of Bob Watson's bio reads "Scoring Major League Baseball's millionth run in 1976 brought Watson more publicity than his entire career."

Insulting? Nah, said Watson. It's true.

"It doubled my fan mail," he said. "It improved from four pieces a week to eight."

The day he scored that historic millionth run is still vivid in Watson's memory. The Astros were in San Francisco to play the Giants in a doubleheader. When the day started, the countdown to one million was down to 50. With the East Coast contests already in full swing, by the time the first game started, the number was whittled to five.

Watson led off the second inning with a walk. The next batter, Jose Cruz, also walked. Watson checked the Candlestick Park scoreboard and saw the countdown was now at one.

Suddenly, Milt Mays hit a three-run homer. Watson began to trot from second base to third when he heard his teammates in the bullpen yelling "Run! Run! Run!"

"So I took off on a dead sprint," Watson said. Unbeknownst to him, Cincinnati's Dave Concepcion had just hit a homer in Cincinnati and was also running around the bases at a frenetic pace.

"I beat him by one and a half seconds," Watson remembered.

For his accomplishment, Watson collected prizes from the sponsors of a nationwide contest where fans entered their guesses on when and where the run would score. He received a Seiko watch, one million Tootsie Rolls and one million pennies. The pennies were donated to charity. The Tootsie Rolls were donated to the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts.

And against his better wishes, Watson's shoes were donated to the Hall of Fame.

18. JJ1986 Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2931891)

Konerko

19. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:12 PM (#2931899)

249,974 - Paul Konerko (CHW) (3:08)

20. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:17 PM (#2931910)

Chase Heddy, er Headley

21. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:17 PM (#2931915)

249,975 - Chase Headley (SDP) (3:16)

22. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:18 PM (#2931916)

greg Dobbs.

23. JJ1986 Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:19 PM (#2931927)

Alberto Gonzalez

24. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2931931)

See, patience pays off.

25. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:21 PM (#2931937)

#249,976 - Greg Dobbs (PHI)
#249,977 - Alberto Gonzalez (WAS)

26. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:22 PM (#2931941)

Benny Agbayani

27. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:23 PM (#2931942)

Alberto Gonzalez

Second guy today to hit their first career dinger.

28. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:25 PM (#2931949)

Not that it matters much, but Alberto Gonzalez plays for WAS

29. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:25 PM (#2931954)

Toby Hall

30. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2931960)

#249,978 - Toby Hall (CHW)

31. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:43 PM (#2931982)

Kouzmanoff

32. Repoz Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2931984)

Kouz - #249,979

33. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2931985)

Miggy Cabrera

34. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:45 PM (#2931987)

35. David Nieporent Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:46 PM (#2931988)

Not that it matters much, but Alberto Gonzalez plays for WAS

Yes, he plays Attorney General, right?

36. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:46 PM (#2931989)

249,970 - Milledge (WAS) homered
249,971 - Albert Pujols (STL) homered (2:30)
249,972 - Dusty Ryan (DET) (2:37)
249,973 - Mike Jacobs (FLA) (2:38)
249,974 - Paul Konerko (CHW) (3:08)
249,975 - Chase Headley (SDP) (3:16)
249,976 - Greg Dobbs (PHI)
249,977 - Alberto Gonzalez (WAS)
249,978 - Toby Hall (CHW)
249,979 - Kevin Kouzmanoff (SDP)
249,980 - Miguel Cabrera (DET)
249,981 -

37. Repoz Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:46 PM (#2931990)

Miggy Cabs - #249,980

38. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#2932034)

39. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2932040)

Gabe Kapler (MIL) -- 3:18 CT

40. Stevis Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2932041)

Gabe Kapler, breaking up Young's perfecto.

41. Eric J Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#2932053)

Magglio Ordonez.

42. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2932068)

249,984 - Papi

43. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2932073)

44. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2932079)

Xavier Nady (NYY)

45. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:34 PM (#2932082)

That's 2 homers in 1.1 innings for Ryan Feierabend. Maybe he'll push this to 250,000 all by himself.

"Feierabend" means "evening relaxation" or something like that.

46. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:35 PM (#2932083)

47. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:49 PM (#2932108)

Chris Snyder (ARI)

48. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#2932114)

"Feierabend" means "evening relaxation" or something like that.

Means you've finished work for the day...

49. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:00 PM (#2932122)

Brad Hawpe (COL)

50. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2932127)

Jason Bay (BOS)

51. SacBunt Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2932128)

Jason Bay (BOS)

52. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:05 PM (#2932131)

Adrian Beltre (SEA)

53. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:07 PM (#2932134)

249,990 - Adam Dunn (ARI)

54. Repoz Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:08 PM (#2932135)

DUNN

55. Repoz Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:08 PM (#2932137)

56. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:10 PM (#2932138)

249,970 - Milledge (WAS) homered
249,971 - Albert Pujols (STL) homered (2:30)
249,972 - Dusty Ryan (DET) (2:37)
....
249,983 - Gabe Kapler (MIL)
249,984 - David Ortiz (BOS)
249,985 - Xavier Nady (NYY)

249,986 - Chris Snyder (ARI)
249,987 - Brad Hawpe (COL)
249,988 - Jason Bay (BOS)
249,989 - Adrian Beltre (SEA)
249,990

57. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:11 PM (#2932139)

249,970 - Milledge (WAS) homered
249,971 - Albert Pujols (STL) homered (2:30)
249,972 - Dusty Ryan (DET) (2:37)
....
249,989 - Adrian Beltre (SEA)
249,990 - Adam Dunn (ARI)

58. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:13 PM (#2932140)

I'd like to see #250,000 be hit by a pitcher.

59. SacBunt Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:14 PM (#2932141)

I'd love to see 250,000 be inside-the-park!

60. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2932142)

With about 3.5 games worth of innings left, I don't believe we'll hit it tonight (especially with Hamels and Santana going in the last game), but it could still happen. Having it happen on Sunday Night Baseball would be a pretty good way to see it happen.

61. TE Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:17 PM (#2932143)

I'd kill to see 250000 require instant replay.

62. AJM Misses Brodeur Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:17 PM (#2932144)

I'm prediciting a Jose Reyes lead off homer for 250,000.

63. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:20 PM (#2932145)

249,991 - Jose Lopez (SEA)

64. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:23 PM (#2932147)

65. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#2932151)

How about Ryan Howard vs. Anibal Sanchez (2008: 5.54 ERA, 6 HR in 37.333 IP), bottom 1st tomorrow?

66. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2932166)

Taylor Teagarden (TEX)

67. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2932167)

249,992 - Taylor Teagarden (TEX)

68. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:45 PM (#2932169)

69. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:46 PM (#2932170)

OH YEAH MANNY DELCARMEN, WELCOME TO THE TEAGARDEN!

Not as intimidating as "Terrordome", but I like it.

70. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:47 PM (#2932172)

You've obviously never had american tea...

71. OCD SS Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:49 PM (#2932173)

What, no "teabagging" reference?

72. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:50 PM (#2932174)

YOU JUST GOT TEABAGGED BY THE GARDENER, DELCARMEN!

Of course the Rangers are still losing 7-1, so taunting right now is kind of a Yang Yang move.

73. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2932175)

15 runs through 4 innings in SF and no home runs. What's wrong with those people?

74. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#2932178)

Ten games tomorrow, so it will definitely happen tomorrow night barring a lot of home runs in the remaining games.

75. manchestermets Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:56 PM (#2932179)

I've set up a little script that downloads a live scoreboard every 30 seconds

Where do you download that from? Is this a publically available feed?

76. Chase Utley, America's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2932180)

those people?

THOSE people??

77. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:58 PM (#2932181)

Basically, it is just a perl script that uses lynx to dump your favorite site's scoreboard page and then uses regular expressions to pullout all of the HR lines. Something I put together in 5-10 minutes. Run a loop and tell it to sleep for 30 seconds at the end of the loop and voila.

78. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:01 PM (#2932182)

I find the "15 runs" a lot more shocking than the "no homers", since the Giants are running their all-scrappy-youngsters lineup out there (plus Randy Winn) and Nate McLouth had to leave the game after getting hit in the face with a ball.

79. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:19 PM (#2932188)

THOSE people??

Crispix started it. He said Yang Yang.

80. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2932190)

249,993 -- Jose Lopez (SEA) (again)

81. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2932191)

Jose Lopez - SEA (again) 3:25 PDT

82. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#2932193)

Need a couple more in the three active games to have a realistic chance of today.

83. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#2932195)

84. Dan Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:29 PM (#2932196)

7 more between the Mets - Phillies game and the last few innings of Ari-LAD and PIT - SF? Not looking likely.

85. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:32 PM (#2932197)

7 more between the Mets - Phillies game and the last few innings of Ari-LAD and PIT - SF? Not looking likely.

Yeah, probably by 8pm tomorrow night, though.

86. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:38 PM (#2932199)

I predicted it would be Yuniesky Betancourt -- did Jose Lopez devour him and gain his powers?

Of course, I also predicted it would happen 4 days later than now.

87. jwb Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:47 PM (#2932203)

Santana. Not likely to be much exposure for the Mets' 'pen.

88. TerpNats Posted: September 07, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2932213)

Is Taylor Teagarden related to the fabled jazz trombonist/vocalist Jack Teagarden (who was a native Texan)?

89. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2932218)

jazz trombonist/vocalist Jack Teagarden

Think maybe I should check www.jazz-tromonist-reference.com???

90. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 07, 2008 at 08:17 PM (#2932231)

According to this site:
So is the sophomore catcher related to jazz giant Jack Teagarden, the legendary Texas trombonist and vocalist whose work contributed heavily to the development of the genre? The answer is yes. According to an interview on the Web site www.texassports.com, the baseball-playing Teagarden believes the trombone-playing Teagarden was his great-great-uncle.

91. Stevis Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:09 PM (#2932376)

Ryan Howard, 9:08pm

92. Stevis Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:13 PM (#2932387)

Carlos Delgado, 9:13pm

93. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:16 PM (#2932398)

249,970 - Milledge (WAS) homered
249,971 - Albert Pujols (STL) homered (2:30)
249,972 - Dusty Ryan (DET) (2:37)
....
249,989 - Adrian Beltre (SEA)
249,990 - Adam Dunn (ARI)
249,991 - Jose Lopez (SEA)
249,992 - Taylor Teagarden (TEX)
249,993 - Jose Lopez (SEA)
249,994 - Ryan Howard (PHI)
249,995 - Carlos Delgado (NYM)

94. TerpNats Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:17 PM (#2932399)

According to this site:
So is the sophomore catcher related to jazz giant Jack Teagarden, the legendary Texas trombonist and vocalist whose work contributed heavily to the development of the genre? The answer is yes. According to an interview on the Web site www.texassports.com, the baseball-playing Teagarden believes the trombone-playing Teagarden was his great-great-uncle.

Yet somehow I doubt he would use "Rockin' Chair" or one of his great-great-uncle's other classics as his batting intro music...though I'd like to see him try it.

95. Stevis Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:45 PM (#2932440)

Delgado wants to get us there tonight.

96. JJ1986 Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:45 PM (#2932441)

Delgado again.

97. Edmundo, survivor of 7 right-sourcings Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:56 PM (#2932464)

Delgado's two homers must have gone close to a combined 900'. Hamels hung a curve for the first one and then hung a change-up for the second. They were monster shots.

98. Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 11:10 PM (#2932614)

99. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#2932650)

I'm going to guess Magglio Ordonez off Gio Gonzalez.

100. Repoz Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:22 AM (#2932658)

I'll go Joey Votto off Dave Bush.

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