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Sunday, September 07, 2008

Will the 250,000th Home Run be Hit Today?

I know it’s bad form to use the keys to plug your own stuff, but it is the start of the NFL season and a few weeks from the nitty gritty of the pennant race, so I figured baseball fans might need something to do today. And I could really use some help as well. By the best accounting available, there were 249,969 regular season home runs hit from 1876 to the end of play yesterday. Given there are fifteen games today (The Orioles have no Sunday game scheduled?) and the league averages just over two home runs a game we could get to #250,000 sometime late today. There were 40+ hit yesterday. I am hoping to keep a running log on BBTF today so that with some exactness we can determine just who hit #250,000. Thank you for any help you are willing to provide.

Sean Forman Posted: September 07, 2008 at 12:49 PM | 200 comment(s)
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101. Halofan Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:05 AM (#2932673)

RECOUNT! It is a plot so a Red Sox will do this.

102. baseclog Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:09 AM (#2932674)

I am saying Youkillis off Jackson (total guess..no real analysis).

103. Halofan Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:12 AM (#2932676)

SEE WHAT I MEAN, SEE WHAT I MEAN

104. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 08, 2008 at 03:58 AM (#2932702)

The day he scored that historic millionth run is still vivid in [Bob] Watson's memory.... He received a Seiko watch, one million Tootsie Rolls and one million pennies. The pennies were donated to charity. The Tootsie Rolls were donated to the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts.

If it had been Willie Stargell, the Scouts would have been lucky to end up with 500 Tootsie Rolls.

105. Craig K Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:56 AM (#2932707)

If it had been Willie Stargell, the Scouts would have been lucky to end up with 500 Tootsie Rolls.

If it had been Cecil Fielder, he would have asked for 2 million.

106. Repoz

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:59 AM (#2932708)

If it had been Cecil Fielder, he would have asked for 2 million.

Rolls of the dice...

107. Dag Nabbit: formerly tolerant of lactose Posted: September 08, 2008 at 08:15 AM (#2932736)

Screw conventional picks -- I say it'll be Joe Blanton.

With an inside-the-park home run.

108. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!) Posted: September 08, 2008 at 08:38 AM (#2932750)

Screw conventional picks -- I say it'll be Joe Blanton.

With an inside-the-park home run

If Joe Blanton has to huff it around the bases for home run number 250,000 any accolades he receieves are going to be osthumous.

109. Ball Point Pen Guy (Will Young) Posted: September 08, 2008 at 09:31 AM (#2932781)

So my pick of Francouer off Livan on 9/9 could still happen?! Livan could allow both 200,000 and 250,000. C'mon, make me look like a genius.

110. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2008 at 10:19 AM (#2932823)

John McDonald off Vazquez

111. aleskel

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#2932825)

ARod off of Garland. And it will be reviewed via instant replay. And called back.

112. Edmundo is Super Average Man

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 11:00 AM (#2932862)

ARod with hit 249,999 and 250,001 and Jeter will hit 250,000, further proving that Jeter is Captain Clutch and ARod only hits homers when they don't count.

113. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life. Posted: September 08, 2008 at 11:02 AM (#2932864)

Augie Ojeda off Tim Lincecum

114. pthomas Posted: September 08, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2933140)

If only Rick Camp was still playing.....

115. gps Posted: September 08, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2933256)

Carlos Pena off Jon Lester, although if that one happens it'd probably be too early in the evening.

116. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 05:14 PM (#2933345)

If only Rick Camp was still playing.....

How about lighting up Dennis Lamp, oncemore....

117. SacBunt Posted: September 08, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2933368)

Cust off Miner.

118. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2933372)

Just getting ready.

249,997
249,998
249.999

250,000

119. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:21 PM (#2933393)

249,997 - Jason Bay (BOS)

120. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2933398)

249,997 - Jason Bay (BOS) off Edwin Jackson (TBR)
249,998
249.999

250,000

121. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#2933402)

249,998 - Magglio Ordonez (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

122. shoewizard Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:35 PM (#2933404)

This is kinda fun. Thanks for doing this Sean.

123. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2933405)

249,997 - Jason Bay (BOS) off Edwin Jackson (TBR)
249,998 - Magglio Ordonez (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
249.999

250,000

124. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:37 PM (#2933407)

249,999 - Gary Sheffield (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

125. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:39 PM (#2933408)

249,997 - Jason Bay (BOS) off Edwin Jackson (TBR)
249,998 - Magglio Ordonez (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
249.999 - Gary Sheffield (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

250,000

126. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:46 PM (#2933414)

I'm guessing Hanley Ramirez

127. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:46 PM (#2933416)

Blanton's batting! :-)

128. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2933418)

Joe Blanton just hit a sac fly. Don't know how deep, but that would have been a spooky good call by Jaffe.

129. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2933419)

249,997 - Jason Bay (BOS) off Edwin Jackson (TBR)
249,998 - Magglio Ordonez (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
249.999 - Gary Sheffield (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

250,000 -

Thought Ben Francisco had hit it

130. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2933420)

Deep enough that matt Stairs could score

131. Repoz

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2933421)

PUSH UP THE STARTING TIME FOR THAT CINCY GAME!

~~Votto~~

132. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2933422)

I sure hope it happens in the next 15 minutes because tracking 8 active games will be a real pain.

133. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2933423)

Joe Blanton just hit a sac fly. Don't know how deep, but that would have been a spooky good call by Jaffe.

Yeah, "in play, run-scoring play" would have made me crap myself.

134. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2933424)

Between this and waiting for the 8 PM Hurricane Ike update, I'm all verklempt.

135. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:53 PM (#2933426)

Utley's up. That could be it.

Or Howard

136. Repoz

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2933428)

I'm all verklempt

You picked him?

137. shoewizard Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2933432)

A lot of rain in this Detroit game. If the game gets rained out before it's official you have to back up your count.

138. Repoz

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2933433)

Sheff, Pena, Howard up....

139. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2933434)

Stats still count for that game don't they?

140. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2933435)

It will probably be suspended and then completed later.

141. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2933436)

I'm all verklempt.

Am I the only one who (every time I heard this phrase) thinks of Werner Klemperer (Colonel Klink od Hogan's Heroes 4 all the kiddies...).

142. zonk Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2933437)

not unless they get through 2 1/2 more innings

143. shoewizard Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2933438)

Sheffield did it, Grand Slam

144. JJ1986 Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2933439)

Sheffield - Grand Slam

145. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2933440)

Sheff!!!

146. zonk Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2933441)

It's SHEFFIELD!

147. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2933442)

Sheff Slam!

148. Andrew Edwards Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2933443)

Nice that it was a grand slam

149. Repoz

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2933445)

Gonna make Harvey's day...

150. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2933446)

Well, Gio Gonzalez sure sped this puppy up.

151. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:03 PM (#2933447)

Gio Gonzalez deserves some of the credit also

152. SacBunt Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#2933449)

All this because chicks dig the long ball.

153. shoewizard Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#2933450)

Now you just gotta hope they get this one in.

Stats are not official until game is official.

154. Repoz

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#2933451)

Sean, you gonna stick around and keep this thread open for the next 250,000?

155. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#2933452)

I am glad it wasnt hit in Comiskey since they sold out their starting time for Slurpees and Big Gulps.

156. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:05 PM (#2933453)

Gio Gonzalez sure sped this puppy up.

AKA the Phillies'-Chisox yo-yo whose stats in Winter Ball will not get him into the HOF. At least they kept Floyd (Chi. did)!

157. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:05 PM (#2933455)

260,000 is due sometime in 2010 I am betting on Brandon Wood

158. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2933456)

159. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2933457)

If the Detroit game counts, I got the pitcher right last night.

160. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:07 PM (#2933460)

It was career HR number 496 for Sheff. How cool would it have been if it was his 500th? Of course if he had 4 more career HR, then #250,000 would have been Delgado last night.

161. shoewizard Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:07 PM (#2933461)

May want to track the next three just in case the DET game is thrown out due to weather.

Good idea.

BTW, does Gio Gonzalez have a PRI account ? Looks like he was trying to help you out here. ;)

162. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:09 PM (#2933464)

The A's have a reliever named Outman? That's gotta be the greatest thing ever.

163. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:10 PM (#2933465)

If the Detroit game counts, I got the pitcher right last night.

Saw that! Congratz Rusty. Loved your 1981(?) Coke Can! ;)

164. OCF Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:11 PM (#2933466)

Between this and waiting for the 8 PM Hurricane Ike update, I'm all verklempt.

70 knot Category 1 storm, central pressure 966 mb, located just off shore off the south coast of Cuba. NHS is still quite reluctant to commit to a location for U.S. landfall, and regards the intensity in the northern Gulf as highly uncertain. Their forecast track still points generally toward Texas.

165. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:11 PM (#2933467)

Sean Now that it is in the books, I have to stir the pot and ask, what if Shef's HR went to replay, and someone else hit one before they ruled his was good??

166. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:12 PM (#2933470)

The A's have a reliever named Outman? That's gotta be the greatest thing ever.

Check out his pic on MLB.com. Another Phillies' castoff. HR Mike Jacobs vs. PHILA. BTW....

167. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2933471)

168. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2933472)

Gonzalez has now given up 9 HR's in 28 IP.

Ouch.

169. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:14 PM (#2933473)

Jaconbs homered for FLA

170. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:15 PM (#2933475)

Sean Now that it is in the books, I have to stir the pot and ask, what if Shef's HR went to replay, and someone else hit one before they ruled his was good??

What if Sheffield went into a slow trot and a couple of seconds later somebody hit an inside-the-park HR and beat him home?

171. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:15 PM (#2933476)

172. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:16 PM (#2933479)

70 knot Category 1 storm, central pressure 966 mb, located just off shore off the south coast of Cuba. NHS is still quite reluctant to commit to a location for U.S. landfall, and regards the intensity in the northern Gulf as highly uncertain. Their forecast track still points generally toward Texas.

The storm just passed my longitude at about 3.3 degrees south of me, so about 200 miles. I'm getting 20-25 knots steady with occasional gusts at 40+. That's unbelievable for being 200 miles away from a minimal hurricane.

My third near miss in about a month. Might have to break out the "...cone of error" handle.

173. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:19 PM (#2933480)

Sean Now that it is in the books, I have to stir the pot and ask, what if Shef's HR went to replay, and someone else hit one before they ruled his was good??

I would probably contend that if it was ruled a HR on the field it was a HR when it was hit. If it wasn't it became a home run when the replay was reviewed, but that is just my gut feeling.

174. OCF Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#2933483)

So Misirlou lives somewhere in the Miami metro area?

175. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:21 PM (#2933485)

Florida keys

176. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:21 PM (#2933487)

sounds fair to me, Unless my guy was 250,001 because of your ruling.

BTW Misirlou As the late great George Carlin said, those weren't near misses--- they were near hits.

177. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:26 PM (#2933494)

178. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2933501)

179. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2933504)

Nobody correctly guess the day, batter or pitcher.

180. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2933505)

Miggy C. Of course we still need another one.

181. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#2933506)

70 knot Category 1 storm

Hannah sat down on my High School in Allentown on Saturdayhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DOYb1hyr2w: Category EF (Enhanced Fujita) 1 Tornado, 95 MPH--taking off a good portion of its roof! Makes me miss Oklahoma City (May 3, 1999 Category 5 {old scale} 318 MPH)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pbqGsS5iB4.

182. STEROIDS!!!!! Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:35 PM (#2933507)

Are the A's just serving up BP in the hopes of delaying the game long enough that it gets wiped out?

183. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2933515)

Nobody correctly guess the day, batter or pitcher.

Rusty Kuntz ... Rusty Cars: Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#2932650) I'm going to guess Magglio Ordonez off Gio Gonzalez.

Gios Mio!

184. spartanbill Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:40 PM (#2933517)

The A's have been serving up BP since they traded Blanton and Harden and began mailing it in.

185. mikeschmidtman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2933522)

Jason Kendall!--250,000 without the Detroit game....

186. shoewizard Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2933523)

Jason Kendall just went deep for Milwaukee...so I think thats your insurance HR.

187. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:46 PM (#2933529)

And that's why he's the 10th greatest catcher of all time.

188. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:49 PM (#2933535)

249,997 - Jason Bay (BOS) off Edwin Jackson (TBR)
249,998 - Magglio Ordonez (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
249.999 - Gary Sheffield (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

250,000 - Gary Sheffield (DET) off Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
250,001 - Mike Jacobs (FLA) off Joe Blanton (PHI)
250,002 - Luke Scott (BAL) off Fausto Carmona (CLE)
250,003 - Miguel Cabrera (DET) off Josh Outman (OAK) I hope they get the game in.
250,004 - Jason Kendall (MIL) off Edinson Volquez (CIN)

OK, weather's good here, good in Boston, good in Baltimore, Milwaukee's a dome, so it is either Sheff or Kendall.

189. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:52 PM (#2933538)

Need another half inning in Detroit.

190. Sean Forman Posted: September 08, 2008 at 07:54 PM (#2933542)

Thanks for the help guys. I got a text that they posted Sheff's 250k on the scoreboard at Fenway.

191. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 08, 2008 at 08:29 PM (#2933591)

Gios Mio!

I wouldn't have even been close in the original thread.

I'm going with Ken Griffey V (who will go by the name "George") off Barack Fassero for #500,000.

192. Brandon in MO (Fire Trey Hillman) Posted: September 08, 2008 at 08:31 PM (#2933594)

Josh Outman sure did do his almamater (The University of Central Missouri) proud by giving up the 250003rd home run in baseball history.

193. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 08, 2008 at 09:08 PM (#2933618)

Maybe we should keep this up to chart 250,125 just in case they ever decided to throw the Union Association out of the encyclopedia.

194. Monty Posted: September 08, 2008 at 09:58 PM (#2933645)

AP has the story a bit wrong:

Gary Sheffield 's second home run of the night - a grand slam - was the 250,000th hit in major league history and the Detroit Tigers beat the Oakland Athletics 14-8 on Monday night.

195. Eric J Posted: September 08, 2008 at 10:05 PM (#2933648)

Could just be a badly-executed antecedent.

196. Misirlou had a hedge back home in the suburbs Posted: September 08, 2008 at 10:05 PM (#2933649)

The article has been edited. The word hit has been removed. Still, it may not have been wrong, just poorly worded, as in "Gary Sheffield 's second home run of the night - a grand slam - was the 250,000th (home run) hit in major league history..."

edit: BTW, that's a hell of a mug shot of Casey Fossum there.

197. Repoz

Posted: September 08, 2008 at 11:26 PM (#2933690)

100. Repoz Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:22 AM (#2932658)

I'll go Joey Votto off Dave Bush.

HR - J Votto (19, 8th inning off D Bush 0 on, 2 Out).

As Judge Chamberlain Haller used to say..."DARN! DARN! DARN!"

198. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 08, 2008 at 11:59 PM (#2933699)

ESPN News is running it in the scroll, citing Baseball Reference in the text. A nice bit of exposure for BBRef, and a nice change of pace for ESPN (properly citing, that is).

199. shoewizard Posted: September 09, 2008 at 12:51 AM (#2933705)

Pretty weak that the AP story didn't cite.

200. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life. Posted: September 09, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2933707)

SportsCenter is talking about it right now...cites Ross Barnes off Cherokee Fisher, 1876, as the first MLB homer. That square with what you have?

That was of course Ross Barnes's 5th career home run.

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