That’s right, he hit 13 and 14 homeruns, successively, in his two seasons playing for the Astros - in one of baseball’s featured HOMERUN DERBY HAVENS.

Okay, let's be factual here. In 2009, Minute Maid Park was ranked No. 11 in HR park factor, and Camden Yard was No. 5. For the overall ballpark factor (runs), Minute Maid Park was ranked No. 21 and Camden was ranked No. 11. Minute Maid Park is favorable to HRs in one location (Crawford Boxes), but less favorable in the power alleys, and kills HRs in CF.

Tejada's HR power declined, but he led the NL in doubles (46)in 2009. That is the second highest doubles total of his career, and he achieved a league leading doubles total in a ballpark ranked No. 27 in doubles park factor. Tejada's power declined at the age of 35, and he compensated with more doubles. He's not the same player that he was in his late 20's (or what was thought to be his late 20's). That is why he signed for only $6 million.

Three-word response to this article: One Year Deal.

Does Tejada have any chance at the HOF? He's got the MVP, will probably retire with 300+ homers and 1200+ RBI. His OPS+ is currently 112, which will probably drop by retirement, but vewy good for a shortstop. He's got only 12 full seasons so far, but has been very durable (10 seasons of 158 games or more). I'm not sure how Tejada's defense has been rated.

The steroids allegation will hurt, of course, and I don't think he's viewed as a great teammate.

That's 20 seconds of my life I'll never get back.

And, evidence exists to suggest he influenced other teammates.

Such as...

And, evidence exists to suggest he influenced other teammates.

Such as...

Palmeiro's claim about the "B-12" shot.

My top 10 shortstops among guys who have retired since around 1970

1. Rodriguez
2. Yount
3. Ripken
4. Jeter
5. Larkin
6. Banks
7. Trammell
8. Nomar
9. Fregosi
10. Tejada

And I have Ozzie Smith at 11. This is my first foray into ranking people, and I think I may be putting more value on peak than I'd like to, so I'm sure more informed people than me will point out where I'm way off, but I'd put the Hall of Fame line after Trammell. With a good year or two Tejada could pass Nomar and Fregosi, but I doubt Trammell.

EDIT: I also have Luis Aparicio way down at #20 behind Jay Bell and Rico Petrocelli. I'm sure my main problem is that I'm using Win Shares, but that seems wrong to me.

Does Tejada have any chance at the HOF?

I'd say none whatsoever.

Does Tejada have any chance at the HOF?

I'd say none whatsoever.

He's at 146 on the HOF monitor, and could easily pad those numbers during a 3-4 year decline.

However, with the whole PED thing, and the obviously better contemporaries, he's almost certainly not going to make it.

However, with the whole PED thing, and the obviously better contemporaries, he's almost certainly not going to make it.

Yes, that's what I meant. I'm not talking "deserves". The guy has zero HoF buzz, and a huge PED cloud.

What surprises me is not that he has so little buzz now, but that he also had so little buzz before the whole PED cloud descended on him. This was a 30+ HR shortstop who won an MVP, and then threw together a 150 RBI season on top of it. With those sort of numbers, you would have expected to hear at least some "If he keeps it up..." talk, but I can't remember anything like that about him.

Three-word response to this article: One Year Deal.

That, and the guys that the Orioles were trotting out there at short last year - mostly Izturis and Andino - were virtually automatic outs. (Of course, Izturis if memory serves was pretty solid defensively.)

IIRC they have nothing in the farm system resembling a prospect at the position either.

If you're the Orioles and facing a wave of fan indifference, there are worse things to do than sign a player most causal fans have heard of to play a position where you have no obvious solution in the organization to a one year deal.

What surprises me is not that he has so little buzz now, but that he also had so little buzz before the whole PED cloud descended on him. This was a 30+ HR shortstop who won an MVP, and then threw together a 150 RBI season on top of it. With those sort of numbers, you would have expected to hear at least some "If he keeps it up..." talk, but I can't remember anything like that about him.

That's because he moved to the nothing-interesting-has-happened-here-since-Cal-Ripken-retired baseball town of Baltimore, where the only "buzz" has been around Rafael Palmeiro failing a drug test. When Tejada was in Oakland, there was plenty of HOF buzz. Gammons (IIRC) kept trying to elevate him into the pantheon with Jeter-Nomar-ARod.

you would have expected to hear at least some "If he keeps it up..." talk, but I can't remember anything like that about him.

The keeping up would have been in Baltimore. Hence, the lack of buzz.

That, and the guys that the Orioles were trotting out there at short last year - mostly Izturis and Andino - were virtually automatic outs. (Of course, Izturis if memory serves was pretty solid defensively.)

Miggy's not going to be playing SS for the Orioles. He's replacing Mora at 3B. That's still likely to be an offensive upgrade, but you'll still have to endure the hit stylings of Izturis.

Miggy's not going to be playing SS for the Orioles. He's replacing Mora at 3B. That's still likely to be an offensive upgrade, but you'll still have to endure the hit stylings of Izturis.

Well, Mora sucked too (almost as bad as the shortstops, and that's saying something) and the organizational picture isn't much better at 3B than at SS, or else Mora would have gotten less playing time last year.

The organizational picture is much better at 3b -- they have Josh Bell. Hence the 1 year deal for Tejada.

Izturis can't hit, but he's terrific defensively, and overall was perfectly decent last year. I'd love the get a long term solution at SS, but Izturis is fine for now.

Josh Bell stopped by to say hello, and ask that you not forget about him.

Hi Josh!

Josh Bell owes you a coke.

Has anyone run projections/sims for the 2010 standings yet?

Eyeballing AROM’s projections puts the O’s right around .500 (+5W offense, +1W defense, -4W pitching, -?W AL East), but that seems high to me.

CAIRO's always first out of the block with that

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_projected_2010_al_east_standings_as_of_january_16

As of 1/16, they had the o's at 70 wins.

70 seems low, that’s only a one game improvement from their pythag from last year.

Actually, CAIRO’s RS/RA allowed seems pretty reasonable (maybe a little low on the RS), but they are projecting the O’s to miss their pythag by about 4 wins.

My gut says 790-800 RS, 800-825 RA (more variability with the pitching), and 78-82 wins. Of course, if Tampa, Boston, and NY are all healthy, the Orioles could play very well and still only win 70 games. Or a couple of those teams could sustain major injuries and the division will be more balanced.

Eyeballing AROM’s projections puts the O’s right around .500 (+5W offense, +1W defense, -4W pitching, -?W AL East), but that seems high to me.

That's step 1. Step 2 is making sure the team projections add up to .500 for the league. If the projections have BAL showing .500 at first glance but Toronto there too, TB at .580, Boston at .600, and Yankees at .650, then you know you're in for another long summer.

18. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 25, 2010 at 12:17 PM (#3445804)
Josh Bell stopped by to say hello, and ask that you not forget about him.
19. Confined to the Halls of Congers (formerly Y...) Posted: January 25, 2010 at 12:21 PM (#3445813)
Hi Josh!
20. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 25, 2010 at 12:26 PM (#3445817)
Josh Bell owes you a coke.

Hilarpus.

That's step 1. Step 2 is making sure the team projections add up to .500 for the league. If the projections have BAL showing .500 at first glance but Toronto there too, TB at .580, Boston at .600, and Yankees at .650, then you know you're in for another long summer.

Step 2 takes way more time than I’m willing to invest, but the big three in the division are 5-10 wins ahead of the O’s just comparing the starting lineups. They also all have much better pitching, so it’s definitely going to be a long summer.

Cairo has not done league projections, but their projections for AL East wins (423) is pretty close to what happened last year (421). So, at least that partial consistency check seems OK.

Three-word response to this article: One Year Deal.

Yeah, but was any other team out there offering him anywhere near $6 million? It seems to me like a lot of money to waste on a guy who does nothing to help the team long term.