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Wednesday, November 04, 2009

WSJ: Biderman: Best Second Baseman Ever? Utley Makes a Case

ZOOOOOM!...Moving quicker to the top than Jax Teller!

Given that the New York Yankees are soaking up all the World Series oxygen, it’s no wonder Philadelphia’s Chase Utley isn’t getting heaps of praise. But here’s something to ponder while watching Game 6: Mr. Utley may be the best second baseman in baseball. Ever.

Mr. Utley, whose two home runs and four RBIs on Monday kept the Phillies’ season alive, has numbers that make his colleagues drool. He’s already recorded three seasons with at least 30 home runs, tied for the most ever by a second baseman, and his career .902 on-base plus slugging percentage—a statistic that combines power with the ability to get on base—is better than that of Jackie Robinson and second only to Rogers Hornsby—both baseball immortals.

And in case you were wondering, Mr. Utley’s not bad with his glove. Using a combination of “range factor” and “UZR,” statistics that quantify defensive range and overall contributions compared to an average player, Mr. Utley has been the best second baseman in the majors the past three seasons.

Certainly, Mr. Hornsby, Eddie Collins or Joe Morgan, all Hall of Fame second basemen, might have a bone to pick. But Mr. Utley, 30, is on pace to have more hits than Mr. Morgan’s 2,517, he’s got infinitely more power than Mr. Collins—who, admittedly, played in a very different era—and is a better defender than Mr. Hornsby.

Repoz Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:11 AM | 61 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Joe Mauer Power Hour Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:26 AM (#3376952)
Whatever you please, man.
   2. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:31 AM (#3376953)
Infinitely more power? That's a lot of power!
   3. God Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:31 AM (#3376954)
Um. No.

Next question.
   4. cardsfanboy Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:33 AM (#3376955)
how is he on pace for more hits than Joe Morgan? what criteria are they using, I'm guessing first five or six years, but Morgan had roughly 500 more hits at Utleys age.

shouldn't Utley pass Sandberg or Kent before entering a Morgan/Hornsby discussion?
   5. Robert Machemer Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:54 AM (#3376962)
Chase Utley did nothing worth mentioning in this sort of discussion until the age of 26.

OPS+s ages 26-30 (in descending order)

Hornsby222210207188124
Collins
176165164140128
Morgan
:  159154149116113
Utley
:   145135135132125 
   6. Gern Blanston Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:03 AM (#3376963)
shouldn't Utley pass Sandberg or Kent before entering a Morgan/Hornsby discussion?

Or, hell, Lou Whitaker.

OK, I'm kidding, sort of--Utley's got Whitaker on peak already, but has a good ways to go to match him on career, which sort of highlights how absurd the Hornsby comparison is.
   7. Gern Blanston Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:08 AM (#3376973)
Collins: 176, 165, 164, 140, 128

And that was preceded by his 22-25 stretch: 171 152 162 156
And followed by a late-career surge at 36-39: 141 134 135 139 (And he was still really good between 30 and 36, just not *as* good.)

The length, quality and consistency of Collins' career was amazing. I think Bill James wrote something to the effect that it's hard to pick Collins' best season, but whichever one it is he had it about 16 times.
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:13 AM (#3376975)
OK, I'm kidding, sort of--Utley's got Whitaker on peak already, but has a good ways to go to match him on career, which sort of highlights how absurd the Hornsby comparison is.

that is what I mean, I was looking for any 4 or 5 all star second baseman in history, and would bet that they have as good of a case or stronger as being better than Utley. Just looking at the all star list, Alomar, Whitaker, Carew, Gehringer, etc... Utley isn't in the top 20 of all time discussion yet. I'm a fan of Utley because he is underrated, but late development pretty much eliminates any chances he has of being top 5? 10? of all time.

and I'm not sure that I would say he has Whitaker on peak either, if you define peak as five best seasons it's pretty close, and then Whitaker has the other 14 or so seasons tacked onto that.
   9. Juan V is the mustard of your doom! Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:16 AM (#3376976)
I'm a fan of Utley because he is underrated


Not anymore, I guess...
   10. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:20 AM (#3376977)
Grich compares very well also.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:21 AM (#3376978)
Not anymore, I guess...

we'll see in the National League MVP vote, if Howard finishes ahead of Utley, then he is still underrated. (I know that Howard will finish ahead of Utley, just think it's ridiculous--my guess for mvp goes Pujols, Hanley, Howard, Fielder----then who knows after that, there is a very good chance Howard finishes ahead of Hanley, but I just can't believe the writes are that stupid)
   12. Gern Blanston Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:30 AM (#3376983)
and I'm not sure that I would say he has Whitaker on peak either, if you define peak as five best seasons it's pretty close,

Well, I'd define peak as being a sustained multi-year stretch of comparably high performance (Whitaker never really had a blow-you-away awesome season, and his best seasons were scattered throughout his career--he never had a stretch of consecutive seasons like what Utley's put up over the last 5), but I get what you're saying.
   13. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:41 AM (#3376992)
we'll see in the National League MVP vote, if Howard finishes ahead of Utley, then he is still underrated.

Technically, this would just mean that Utley was still underrated at the end of the regular season.

As far as the BEST EVAR talk goes... what everyone else said.
   14. A triple short of the cycle Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:42 AM (#3376993)
Second base sure is an underrated position. I will throw in Roberto Alomar. Isn't he there with the Grich-Randolph-Kent-Sandberg group below the elite?
   15. Textbook Editor Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:45 AM (#3376999)
Utley was blocked by Polanco of all people in 2003 and 2004, another genius Ed Wade move. If he had looked at Utley's 2002 at AAA, he would have seen that his 2B "problem" (Marlon Anderson played the majority of 2B in 2002!) could have been solved from within. There's no way to know whether or not he would have played well in 2003 (Age 24 season) or 2004 (Age 25 season), but it is reasonable to assume the adjustment period he wound up having at 26 might not have started sooner, and thus he's have put up even better #'s sooner.

The POV of the article is overheated, of course--that's what folks do in the dead tree trade these days--but Utley does have an outside shot to be in the discussion of best second baseman ever; he'll just need an atypical decline period. But as far as catching Morgan for hits... He'd have to average ~160 per season for the next TEN to do that, and I don't see him being 40 and manning the keystone.

But if Utley doesn't pass Morgan (and I'm guessing he won't), Ed Wade gets some of the blame.
   16. Blackadder Posted: November 04, 2009 at 05:55 AM (#3377005)
I wish people would stop comparing the career rate stats of active players who have yet to go through a decline phase with those of retired players. There are other issues too, obviously, but this is a particularly annoying one.
   17. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: November 04, 2009 at 06:00 AM (#3377007)
But Mr. Utley, 30, is on pace to have more hits than Mr. Morgan’s 2,517, he’s got infinitely more power than Mr. Collins—who, admittedly, played in a very different era—and is a better defender than Mr. Hornsby.


Jimmy Rollins has more home runs than Ozzie Smith, he's got infinitely more speed than Cal Ripken and is a better defender than Ernie Banks. Time to start that discussion, too, I guess. How does this Phillies team ever lose a game?
   18. Mark Donelson Posted: November 04, 2009 at 06:05 AM (#3377012)
How does this Phillies team ever lose a game?

Brad Lidge, of course!
   19. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 04, 2009 at 06:23 AM (#3377019)
Utley just finished his age-30 season and has 978 hits. Morgan had 360 more hits after his age-30 season. I guess Utley could pass him in hits if he doesn't averages 180 hits a year for the next 9 years but I would hardly say he is on pace to pass Morgan in hits.
   20. Argu!!!! SATAN!!!! (Sessile Fielder) Posted: November 04, 2009 at 06:23 AM (#3377020)
I always thought of Utley as a good on-base guy, and he is, but I didn't notice until just now that he's led MLB in HBP three years running and only this year really stepped up the walks.
   21. NYCTigersfan Posted: November 04, 2009 at 06:36 AM (#3377024)
Pablo Sandoval has to be in the discussion for best third baseman ever. His .924 career OPS ranks third all-time, just behind A-Rod and Chipper.
   22. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 04, 2009 at 07:10 AM (#3377032)
Best hitter of all time: John Paciorek.
   23. Not The Real Fausto Carmona (Dan Lee) Posted: November 04, 2009 at 08:10 AM (#3377045)
Want to see one of the ten greatest hitters of all time? Look no further than Todd Helton, whose .994 OPS puts him tenth on the career leaderboard, ahead of Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, and Ty Cobb.
   24. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: November 04, 2009 at 08:47 AM (#3377048)
Holy lack of context, Batman!
   25. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: November 04, 2009 at 10:11 AM (#3377057)
While articles like this are ridiculous, they reassure me about Utley's HoF case: obviously nonexistent at the moment, but (as discussed often on BTF) he seems like an excellent candidate to get a raw deal some day (very good at everything, overshadowed by a less well-rounded teammate [Howard], relatively bland guy (at least public face-wise), etc..) I'm very glad at the WS breakout for that reason too.

Utley's defense is really very, very good, something that I doubt the average fan is aware of (as per Nichols' Law.)
   26. pinball1973 Posted: November 04, 2009 at 10:49 AM (#3377060)
I hear the WSJ covers financial news very well, so why are insane, absurd clowns given the run of the sports section and the editorial page?

Too dumb to even get upset about, or laugh at. Refund my time and electrons, please. (And to hell with "sportswriters.")
   27. Craig Calcaterra Posted: November 04, 2009 at 10:54 AM (#3377061)
I can run faster than Steven Hawking, sing better than Albert Einstein, shoot better than Ghandi and shave closer than Lincoln.

Where's the article extolling my greatness?
   28. AndrewJ Posted: November 04, 2009 at 11:49 AM (#3377067)
I love Chase Utley too, but "best second baseman ever" is wayyyyyy too much praise.

relatively bland guy (at least public face-wise)


Uh, he did drop the f-bomb on live TV at last year's World Series celebration.
   29. greenback Posted: November 04, 2009 at 12:13 PM (#3377068)
They're all failed shortstops anyway.
   30. Young Blasarius yonder Posted: November 04, 2009 at 01:05 PM (#3377074)
Infinitely more power? That's a lot of power!


Yes, but is he also a homestar runner?
   31. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: November 04, 2009 at 01:10 PM (#3377076)
sing better than Albert Einstein

Mr. NBC is already getting a big head, I see.
   32. AJM Posted: November 04, 2009 at 01:13 PM (#3377077)
Best ever? Thom Brennaman won't be too happy to learn Jeff Kent has been overthrown.
   33. Let the bears pay the bear tax, I pay the Homer ta Posted: November 04, 2009 at 01:24 PM (#3377078)
Let's not leave Craig Biggio out. Utley's good, but best ever? This is a conversation you have in 5-7 more years, not now.
   34. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:01 PM (#3377094)
Utley also dropped the F bomb in the ASG a couple years ago. IIRC, the New York fans booed him at the beginning of the home run derby and out it came.
   35. DanG Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:14 PM (#3377108)
Highest OPS+, 750+ G at 2B through age-30 season

Cnt Player            OPS+  RC    G    PA  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
 *
1 Rogers Hornsby     178 1409 1534  6617 1915 1926 
 
*2 Nap Lajoie         166  891 1040  4561 1896 1905 
 
*3 Eddie Collins      154  930 1479  6336 1906 1917 
  4 Fred Dunlap        135  555  939  4157 1880 1889 
 
*5 Rod Carew          132  847 1328  5635 1967 1976 
 
*6 Joe Morgan         132  922 1346  5939 1963 1974 
  7 Chase Utley        129  695  891  3813 2003 2009 
  8 Cupid Childs       129  779 1131  5316 1888 1898 
 
*9 Tony Lazzeri       127  848 1253  5358 1926 1934 
 10 Larry Doyle        127  789 1441  6134 1907 1917 
 11 Bobby Grich        125  646 1135  4769 1970 1979 
*12 Joe Gordon         125  570  888  3785 1938 1943 
 13 Jimmy Williams     121  666 1198  5078 1899 1907 
*14 Charlie Gehringer  119  800 1140  5037 1924 1933 
 15 Del Pratt          118  488 1031  4295 1912 1918 
 16 Roberto Alomar     117 1025 1563  6889 1988 1998 
*17 Frankie Frisch     117  970 1432  6370 1919 1929 
 18 Danny Murphy       117  363  780  3163 1900 1907 
*19 Ryne Sandberg      115  883 1389  6060 1981 1990 
 20 Alfonso Soriano    114  661  961  4218 1999 2006 
*21 Bobby Doerr        114  886 1471  6279 1937 1948 
 22 Chuck Knoblauch    113  915 1313  5992 1991 1999 
 23 Jose Vidro         112  640 1060  4242 1997 2005 
*24 Billy Herman       112  840 1333  6121 1931 1940 
 25 Davey Johnson      110  554 1152  4580 1965 1973 
 26 Bill Doran         109  487  914  3927 1982 1988 
 27 Lou Whitaker       109  797 1432  6078 1977 1987 
 28 Tony Cuccinello    108  668 1258  5233 1930 1938 
*29 Johnny Evers       108  532 1273  5111 1902 1912 
*30 Bid McPhee         108  492 1043  4597 1882 1890 
   36. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:16 PM (#3377113)
I hear the WSJ covers financial news very well, so why are insane, absurd clowns given the run of the sports section and the editorial page?


Let's shoot 'em all.
   37. Lassus: Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:19 PM (#3377117)
Uh, he did drop the f-bomb on live TV at last year's World Series celebration.

I believe for this one you're thinking of Cole Hamels, the "World ####### Champions" thing.
   38. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:21 PM (#3377121)
No, it was Utley.
   39. AROM Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:22 PM (#3377124)
How about Joe Crede's case for best 3B of all time?

He's got more power than Wade Boggs, is a better defender than George Brett, and strikes out infinitely less than Michael Jack Schmidt.
   40. Lassus: Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:24 PM (#3377127)
No, it was Utley.

Really? Huh. Boy, I had really remembered that wrong. I always think of Utley as stoic, so it must have messed with my head as I thought back.
   41. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo) Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:26 PM (#3377131)
I can run faster than Steven Hawking, sing better than Albert Einstein, shoot better than Ghandi and shave closer than Lincoln.

Where's the article extolling my greatness?

When you have been a character on the Simpsons, been played by Sam Jaffe in a movie (more or less), walked across the country and had your visage on the penny, then I will write you the greatest tribute ever. I promise.
   42. AROM Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:27 PM (#3377136)
Joe Morgan has a better OPS+ through age 30, despite making it to the big leagues earlier and having a few learning curve seasons before his peak. For whatever reason Utley was held in the minors a while, and just about his whole career is peak.

He's great, but Joe Morgan from 1972-1976 was insane, he averaged a 10 WAR season those years.

Utley's been a 6-7 WAR player the last few years.
   43. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:29 PM (#3377139)
Tony Lazzeri's batting line through his first seven seasons, which takes him through age 28: 305/383/486/869 for an OPS+ of 128.

Utley's at 295/379/523/902, OPS+ 129.

Realistically, that's Utley's territory at the moment – somewhere around Lazzeri, Larry Doyle, Joe Gordon, on the outskirts of the various Halls if he plays this well long enough to be eligible. Outstanding ballplayer, and as everyone has mentioned, not in the Top Ten competition at all.
   44. AROM Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:38 PM (#3377149)
Was Lazzeri considered a good defender? If he was I'm not aware of it, so I think Utley has him beat. Joe Gordon was a very good defender, and probably an excellent all-around comp to Utley.

Looking at the B-ref page, I think Gordon is the perfect comp. He had the walks and power, and in his first 5 years even stole a good number of bases. Few people ran back then, his 18 steals in 1940 was 3rd in the league.
   45. RJ in TO Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3377150)
I can run faster than Steven Hawking, sing better than Albert Einstein, shoot better than Ghandi and shave closer than Lincoln.

Where's the article extolling my greatness?


It's over here.
   46. DL from MN Posted: November 04, 2009 at 02:54 PM (#3377171)
Somewhere between Joe Gordon (who just got elected umpteen years after his death) and Bobby Grich (who never gets any consideration from the writers) is the best 2B ever?
   47. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: November 04, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3377180)
somewhere around Lazzeri, Larry Doyle, Joe Gordon,

Well, there's a big difference between these three guys. One of them could field. That one is (now) in the Hall; the others aren't.

Utley can field. Whether he'll actually be recognized as someone who can field is another question entirely.

Edit: And I'm late. Coke to AROM.
   48. sunnyday2 Posted: November 04, 2009 at 03:04 PM (#3377185)
The problem with Gordon as a comp is he missed 2 years during WWII. Sans that he's got more like 1100 games in by then. He came up at age 23. As a rookie he hit 25-97-.255 (or .255/.340/.502/109 if you prefer) with a great glove. His offense improved in year 2 to .284/.370/.508/124 and ultimately to a 157 OPS+ at age 27. It was the very next 2 years that he was out. So he was better than his raw numbers suggest.

As has been pointed out, Utley was in AA at age 23 and played only 43 games at age 25 by which time Gordon had almost 10X as many games. Gordon was worn out at age 35. I would guess that at age 35 they'll still be fairly comparable because, as I said, Gordon's missing years came before he turned 30. But again, Gordon missed age 28-29 versus Utley missing age 23-24 not in the majors yet. Advantage Gordon. If Utley goes beyond 35, maybe.

And all of that is why Lazzeri is probably a better comp offensively, but not a great defender. Gordon > Utley > Lazzeri.
   49. John DiFool2 Posted: November 04, 2009 at 03:17 PM (#3377198)
Heck, I'm just happy that a Stealth All-Star caliber player is finally getting his due-let's be grateful for that.

Any hypotheses on why star players are often getting late starts to their careers a lot more often these days, as compared to earlier epochs? His teammate Howard being another example of same...
   50. cardsfanboy Posted: November 04, 2009 at 03:25 PM (#3377206)
Any hypotheses on why star players are often getting late starts to their careers a lot more often these days, as compared to earlier epochs? His teammate Howard being another example of same...

Phillly had players in place ahead of them that were good and making good money, that it wasn't worth the trouble to bring up either guy while they still owed the players money.

as to the first part, are you sure that is really happening? I thought most studies have shown that players on average were reaching the majors quicker. Great players(inner circle guys that is) make the majors early (you're Maddux, Clemens, Pujols, Griffey, Arod, Jeter etc) The second tier of players may seem like they are getting held back, and realistically speaking it's in a teams best interest to be positive the player is major league worthy to take full advantage of their seven years of control.
   51. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 04, 2009 at 03:26 PM (#3377208)
That one is (now) in the Hall; the others aren't.


Lazzeri and Gordon are both in the Hall.
   52. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:10 PM (#3377284)
I dunno, Hornsby hasn't made an error in a while.
   53. Tuque Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:22 PM (#3377312)
Proving AndrewJ and Crispix attack right, here is video of Utley: "Boo? #### you!"

This clip was at the All-Star Game though, not the World Series.
   54. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: November 04, 2009 at 04:56 PM (#3377379)
Lazzeri and Gordon are both in the Hall.

(head smack)
   55. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 04, 2009 at 07:09 PM (#3377598)
Utley for greatest Phillie second baseman is an attainable goal. Utley for greatest second baseman ever is not.
   56. Jose Canusee Posted: November 04, 2009 at 07:27 PM (#3377637)
Considering he is in the HOF it was surprising how far you had to read the thread to find Lajoie.

As far as Craig's "I can run faster than Steven Hawking, sing better than Albert Einstein, shoot better than Ghandi and shave closer than Lincoln.

Where's the article extolling my greatness?" I was going to say (Gandhi) you spell better than Quayle but now I'm not sure. Quick, spell out "Yaz" and "Minky"!
   57. AndrewJ Posted: November 05, 2009 at 03:56 AM (#3378778)
Utley for greatest Phillie second baseman is an attainable goal.


With the exception of Lajoie, whose Phillies career was pretty short anyway, Utley is already there.
   58. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:07 AM (#3379088)
Howard has a ways to go before he surpasses Fred Luderus, though.
   59. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 05, 2009 at 12:30 PM (#3379337)
With the exception of Lajoie, whose Phillies career was pretty short anyway, Utley is already there.


Lajoie was a first baseman his first two seasons with the Phils, too. Yeah, Utley has the crown now.
   60. DanG Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:33 PM (#3379894)
Yeah, Utley has the crown now.
Yes, probably. All players with 300+ G at 2B and 1500 PA for the Phillies.

Cnt Player            OPS+  RC    G    PA  From  To
+--+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
  
1 Nap Lajoie         146  395  492  2204 1896 1900 
  2 Chase Utley        129  695  891  3813 2003 2009 
  3 Juan Samuel        104  483  852  3780 1983 1989 
  4 Dave Cash           99  268  484  2238 1974 1976 
  5 Manny Trillo        89  212  502  2022 1979 1982 
  6 Fresco Thompson     89  332  575  2595 1927 1930 
  7 Tony Taylor         88  651 1669  6424 1960 1976 
  8 Bert Niehoff        88  137  408  1592 1915 1917 
  9 Otto Knabe          88  351  946  4057 1907 1913 
 10 Al Myers            88  171  420  1859 1885 1891 
 11 Mickey Morandini    86  426  965  3829 1990 2000 
 12 Bill Hallman        86  497 1060  4663 1888 1903 
 13 Granny Hamner       84  673 1501  6222 1944 1959 
 14 Cookie Rojas        82  302  880  3369 1963 1969 
 15 Bernie Friberg      81  322  795  2885 1925 1932 
 16 Marlon Anderson     80  204  479  1869 1998 2002 
 17 Kid Gleason         79  252  769  3191 1888 1908 
 18 Denny Doyle         66  139  446  1710 1970 1973 
   61. jscmeagol Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3379914)
I am not sure that you can say that Utley was blocked by Polanco, i would say that he was blocked by the really stupid signing of David Bell. Polanco was (still is?) a useful player with GG level defense at 2nd and 3rd, David Bell was not. To me, it was Bell's presence that blocked Utley.
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