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Monday, February 08, 2010

Yahoo: Ask Alex: What will Tommy Hanson’s sophomore season bring?

The Question: How much can the Braves really expect to get out of a 23-year-old who pitched only 127 big league innings in 2009? How do they handle him with baby gloves while also capitalizing on his great first season?

The Analysis: With any young pitcher, the need to protect their health is paramount. In fact, Hanson and the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw(notes) did something that only seven other under-23 pitchers have done in the past 25 years, posting a 2.89 ERA in at least 127 innings.

The others to achieve the same feat? Kevin Appier, Mark Prior(notes), Bruce Ruffin, Lance McCullers, Sid Fernandez, Bret Saberhagen and Doc Gooden (twice). Each saw their careers hampered by injury and were more or less out of baseball by their mid-30s. All were fabulously talented — Appier, Gooden, Saberhagen and Prior finished third or better in the Cy Young voting by their 25th birthday — which undoubtedly encouraged their managers to put a lot of miles on their arms.

But sooner or later, they all paid the piper. A great year for Hanson in 2010 could have adverse affects down the line, if the Braves aren’t careful with his innings.

Tripon Posted: February 08, 2010 at 04:45 PM | 7 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:11 PM (#3456276)
But for all the hoopla about HoF pitchers with long careers being underworked till they are 25, there are counter examples right? Afterall, that is just a hypothesis with some empirical confirmation.
For Hanson, Clemens would be an appropriate comparison. Power RH pitcher breaking in the early 20s. Any others?
   2. dejarouehg Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3456290)
What will Tommy Hanson's sophomore season bring?

Another reason for Mets fans to be envious. This guy's a stud!
   3. Ron Johnson Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:53 PM (#3456334)
#1, There's Jim Palmer. He broke but recovered. Bob Feller of course. Don Sutton would seem to qualify (at least on workload -- didn't pitch all that well and was nothing like the kind of power pitcher we're talking about). Tom Seaver. Bert Blyleven (tough comp. Worked fairly hard young but not a great comp for anybody). Robin Roberts (who threw pretty hard when he came up)

Craig Wright's study in The Diamond Appraised is a good place to start.
   4. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:57 PM (#3456341)
Thanks Ron.
Looking at the Merritt thread reminded me of TOm Seaver. The problem here though is that comparing anyone to Clemens or Seaver or Palmer is disingenuous, as by definition of HoF, those guys are exceptions.

I will look up the Wright study. Thanks.
   5. Crispix Attacks Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3456351)
Kerry Wood was a power RH pitcher who broke in his early 20s. 233 strikeouts in 167 innings at age 21, with a 3.40 ERA in the somewhat pitcher-unfriendly year of 1998.

And then of course 0 strikeouts in 0 innings at age 22.
   6. jdbkaput Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3456352)
Clemens had labrum surgery in 1985. He may have recovered exceptionally (perhaps historically) well, but I don't know if I'd use him as a counterexample in this particular argument.
   7. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:19 PM (#3456361)
But for all the hoopla about HoF pitchers with long careers being underworked till they are 25, there are counter examples right?


Of course. The article has just limited itself with artificial criteria (namely, 22 and under rather than 25 or even 23, and BETTER than 128 ERA+). Just sticking with other noteworthy Braves, here are some presumptive HOF Age 22 seasons:

Smoltz: 208 IP, 124 ERA+
Maddux: 249 IP, 114 ERA+
Glavine: 195.1 IP, 80 ERA+

Those guys saw more action at the same age as Hanson was this year, they just weren't quite as good as him on a rate basis. Other HOF-caliber players with big IP totals under 25:

Mussina (23): 241 IP, 157 ERA+
Clemens (23): 254 IP, 169 ERA+
Sabathia (21): 210 IP, 100 ERA+
Seaver (22): 251 IP, 122 ERA+
Blyleven (20): 278 IP, 126 ERA+
Drysdale (22): 270.2 IP, 122 ERA+
etc.

Not all these guys were paragons of health across their whole careers, but most pitchers aren't, regardless of what age they break in.
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