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It's the 2004 offseason all over again. ####### idiots.
Seriously, 6/140? What ever.
If they are looking to sign another pitcher other than CC, and I think they should, and Moose is going to retire, I think these two are the best options out there.
Why not just re-up Pettitte for another year?
I don't like Pettitte, so that may be clouding my thinking, but I think his days as a useful starter are about over. He was pretty lousy in the second half. That being said, his K rate went up a bit, and the rest of his numbers looks stable, so maybe I'm just overreacting and he's still the same 105 ERA+ pitcher he has been.
I don't think the Yankees are foolish if they don't sign Tex. There are legitimate reasons not to want to sign up a 1B for that kind of money/years. (There are obviously reasonable arguments in the other direction, of course.)
To paraphrase Hans Gruber of Die Hard fame, "He's an extraordinary eater." And, not just of innings.
I think the Yankees are engaging in a clever bit of signalling with the LA clubs.
NY clearly wants CC, LAA wants Tex, and LAD wants Manny. NY is the most likely alternative destination for Tex and maybe Manny. Both LAs could be strong bidders for CC.
By trading for Swisher, and publicly denying their ability to get two premier FAs, the Yankees are sending the signal to the LA teams, don't go hard for our guy, and we won't go hard after yours, and we'll all end up with what we want at a lower price.
What about the other 27 teams?
Obviously it doesn't guarantee anything, but we're not talking 27 teams. CC, Tex, and Manny are all $20M+ players, looking for long deals (relative to age). The effective market is much smaller than that.
For CC, we're talking LAA, LAD, NYY, CHC, BOS, MIL (at a big discount), NYM (maybe, but unlikely).
For Tex, LAA, NYY, BAL, WSN
For Manny, LAD, NYY, CHC (?), PHI (?)
If NYY, and the LAs can get their signalling right, they really limit the market for their coveted players.
You think they beat the Dodgers' offer? Or do you think he takes less per year for more years?
I can't see CLE going 3/75 or 4/100.
I don't think there's a realistic possibility that he'll revert to his 2004-05 form. His control has improved dramatically since then: 1.83 BB/9 over the past 3 seasons, compared to 3.14 in 2004-2005. Considering that he seems to be either at or approaching his peak, what are the odds that he just completely loses it and goes back to pitching like he did when he was 23?
And as for his 2008...his first 4 starts really skew his numbers. From April 22 until his trade to the Brewers on July 2, he put up a 2.16 ERA with 109 K's and 20 BB in 104 1/3 IP.
The second one. When Ramirez was traded, I predicted that he would go to CLE, but he hit so well in LA that he changed the calculus. The market crisis may have as well, for some owners.
Still, he fits the Indians' on-field needs very well, and it would make a good story/pr-angle.
I do think Sabathia will sign with NYY and Teixeira will stay with the Angels.
I said this yesterday, so I obviously agree. Both Sheehan and Goldman think Teixeira should be the #1 target, and some of the Yankee guys here--Good Face and CP, for example-seem to feeel the same way.
Obviously Sabathia comes with downside risk. He also comes as one of the five best pitchers in baseball, and the second most durable. And if the first half of 2008 can mark his downside, then you'd have to accept that the second half of 2008 shows he has Greg Maddux upside.
I'm missing some irony here, right? After winning four titles in five years, then winning the division for another six years in a row, the Yankees miss the playoffs once -- with a record that would have won the NL West handily and had them neck and neck for the AL Central. 90% of the teams in baseball have fans who would commit crimes for that kind of run.
I suppose it's not exactly news that a player wouldn't take a team's first offer, but I am curious what CC's goal with this offer is. Does he know that the Yankees will pay more and just tell them to cough up more? Does he shop it with the teams(s) he would prefer to play for and try to get their best offer?
The exceptions are Rangers fans who all start watching football in late July, Marlins fans who have forgotten the team exists, and Mariners fans who are simply extremely law-abiding :)
Let me fix this:
Who's #1 in durability? Matt Clement?
It's 2004 all over again in that they're ignoring an opportunity to fill a hole in their lineup with about as perfect a player to fill it as there is, while focusing on starting pitching, which shouldn't be their top priority.
I'll all for signing Sabathia, but Burnett and Lowe is Wright and Pavano again. Sign Sabathia, sign Pettitte for one year, here's your rotation:
Sabathia
Wang
Pettitte
Chamberlain
Hughes
I'd be very happy with that rotation. Except for injuries, the only problem that's forseeable is if Hughes is still struggling, and fiddling around with your fifth starter isn't a killer problem. Certainly not worth leaving a gaping hole in your lineup all season over.
Unlike 2004, however, the Yanks actually have attractive prospects to trade for first base or other positional help. Possible targets include Adrian Gonzales (perhaps he's untouchable but the Padres are in rebuilding mode and need young players for their anemic system) or Holliday when the A's are out of it at the deadline.
But why would they trade young talent, which they have some, but not a lot of, on a good option when they can just spend money, which they have a ton of, on a great option?
The logical conclusion I can reach is that the Yankees think Tex will be way overpriced, and they want the Angels out of the market for CC (which they will be if they sign Tex).
It's not a strategy I like, but the point is that if the Yanks direct money only to pitching, they still have ways to improve their positional needs unlike in 2004 when passing on Beltran meant they'd have a gaping hole in center for a while. If the Yanks are going to go crazy over pitching and pick up three pitchers, then all that young pitching talent in their system is blocked and is expendable. Also, I think there is another key difference. Beltran threw himself at the Yanks in 2004 and the team stupidly turned its back. In this case, it seems that the Angels are favorites to bring Texeira back. The Yanks could very well be targeting whom they think they're most likely to get.
Also, I'd say Adrian Gonzalez (who I admit is probably not available) is as great an option as Tex at this point.
I'm so excited to trade away the potential of Phil Hughes to get the awesomeness of Derek Lowe and AJ Burnett. It's such an awesome possibility, I can hardly contain myself. I mean, you'll never find pitchers of that caliber on the free agent market again for the rest of your life, assuming of course that you die before next offseason. And I think it's clear that Phil Hughes has proven he'll never been anything more than a sucky pitcher.
Sign CC, sign Tex, sign Pettitte for one season, there's their best possible team for 2009. And if Phil Hughes develops at the ripe old age of 23, you have the best starting rotation in baseball and a very good lineup.
Sign CC, Lowe and Burnett and put Swisher at 1B, you have a decent rotation, and a decent lineup (assuming Cano, Posada and Swisher bounce back and nobody else declines...). You are exceptional nowhere, and you are a third place team.
When you have to cite either four-year-old numbers, or cherry-picked partial seasons, it's usually a good sign that you're not making a strong argument. Likewise with the "second most durable pitcher in MLB is huge injury risk because of his durability" argument.
I'm not saying a collapse is likely; CC is will probably be a very good pitcher for years to come. But every year, very good pitchers sign big contracts and (a) get hurt, (b) become ordinary or worse, or (c) get hurt, then become ordinary or worse. Pitching is hard, and one hundred forty million dollars is a significant amount of money.
Yes, there is risk. But there is also HUGE upside, which is what makes it worth the risk. And for the Yankees, money isn't as big a stumbling block.
The only way to avoid risk is to never give anyone a big contract, which will make you a lousy team until that one season where all your prospects pan out at once. But if you want to get an ace that you haven't developed, it's going to be risky.
Not that I don't prefer your plan, but there's a very good possibility that the Yanks will not get Tex even if they blow him away with the best offer. Also, you don't acknowledge that Hughes and all his awesome potential might actually get the Yanks something decent in a trade. Or do you think he'll be traded away for Rick Rhoden?
Unfortunately, the Mets and Red Sox have as much money as the LA teams (or more) and will push the market solely to raise the Yankees costs if not just for the player.
If the Yankees strategy is signaling they are going to be disappointed. Then again, looking at the decisionmaking in the Cashman era....
Of course neither team is likely to be a serious player for CC or Tex.
You can't just "push the market". If you say 7/160 for CC b/c you think the Yanks are going to 7/170, and for some reason they don't, you've got him. If that wasn't in your budget, your owner will have some choice words for you, and if that player has one even mediocre year, you've likely lost your job.
GM's can't just "price enforce" like some Rotisserie League auction.
I ran a quick model that suggested a 6/160 deal. I wouldn't consider anything longer for health concerns (and I consider him a better bet than most in that department). At 6/140, I'd love to have him on the Red Sox.
Signalling doesn't work, because if you act on some other team's signals, and they after they have got their man cheaply, bid hard on what you thought were your player, you have no recourse. More than yelling "BUT, BUT, YOU WINKED!!!" of course.
Acting on signals is for fools. Sending signals is another matter.
If you're going to collude you're gonna have to be partners in crime. Nothing helps cooperation like a shared dirty secret.
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