First, since this apparently wasn't seen in the Baseball America Yankee prospects thread where Andrew Brackman was named the 3rd best Yankee prospect (from September 23rd, 2008):

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/ny_sun_goldmanj/

STEVEN GOLDMAN: I only have slight interest in what the scouting bureau said about Brackman, because he didn't pitch much in college due to his interest in basketball. That he got hurt anyway is kind of interesting. I'm glad he has terrific stuff and an amazing curve, and I hope the gamble works out for the Yankees, but given the state of their system and the factor of time, which is working against them given the state of the major league roster, I'm not sure that gambling on the upside was the most responsible thing to do for the organization. As for this draft, you can't develop players who aren't there. I also refer you to what I think is taken for granted in our community by now, the huge disparity in payoff after the first round. The Yankees made a good pick in Cole, and I believe he deceived them more than they miscalculated - it was out of their hands. Still, that's a major setback for this draft class to overcome.

...

JRVJ: Ok, this reasoning I have to disagree with: criticizing the Brackman pick ("given the state of their system and the factor of time, which is working against them give the state of the major league roster, I'm not sure that gambling on the upside was the most responsible thing to do for the organization") while then saying the Yanks made a good pick in Cole (who was a HS pitcher, and would be available in the majors much later, if ever, than Brackman) makes no sense.

...

Steven Goldman: JRVJ, it's not inconsistent at all. It reflects the difference between a healthy high school pitcher and an injured college basketball player.

Second:

STEVE GOLDMAN: "The Yankees will now almost certainly give away one of their two first-round picks, number 26 overall, to sign a free agent. They would give away their other first-rounder, No. 31, but they can't because it's protected. That just means that lower round picks will vanish instead. That means you can likely count on another empty draft."

The Yankees may well end up with 3 protected 1st round picks (if they offer arbitration to Abreu and Marte, its declined and they get signed somewhere else), plus 2 sandwich picks (for Abreu and Marte) and at least two second round pick (the protected pick and one from offering arbitration to I-Rod - who is a Class B FA - having it declined and having I-Rod sign somewhere else).

So the Yanks very easily could end up with 7 picks in the first 2 rounds (including sandwich picks), plus some elite FAs.

None of what I write above is unknown (in fact, it's been commented upon in RLYW, RiverAveBlues and even on Pete Abe's).

Goldman should have waited until the Yanks pick situation clears up before writing this column (or he should have at least waited to see how things shake up instead of writing the lines I quoted).

*Sigh*

if they offer arbitration to Abreu and Marte, its declined and they get signed somewhere else

What if Abreu accepts arbitration? Or if I-Rod does the same?

What if Abreu accepts arbitration? Or if I-Rod does the same?

I gotta think that I-Rod would accept arbitration if offered. Abreu is iffy. The Yankees can't offer either much below what they made last year so both guys could end up with a nice paycheck through arbitration. That would be a fun game of chicken!

The Yankees can't offer either much below what they made last year so both guys could end up with a nice paycheck through arbitration.

Seriously, how many times does this have to be corrected before people stop making this statement? The Yankees can offer them anything they damn well please in arbitration down to the MLB minimum salary. The 20% decrease limit only applies to pre-FA arbitration.

I-Rod would be a decent backup catcher anyway, so even he does accept arbitration, it's not a big deal. Would kinda suck to be stuck with Abreu again, but it's only money and a 1 year deal and I doubt he accepts anyway. He will get a 2-3 year offer from someone.

Seriously, how many times does this have to be corrected before people stop making this statement? The Yankees can offer them anything they damn well please in arbitration down to the MLB minimum salary. The 20% decrease limit only applies to pre-FA arbitration.

That was the last time. I swear!

Abreu is not going to accept arbitration, it continues to amaze me that anyone thinks he will.

Seriously, how many times does this have to be corrected before people stop making this statement? The Yankees can offer them anything they damn well please in arbitration down to the MLB minimum salary. The 20% decrease limit only applies to pre-FA arbitration.

There's a sympathetic reading here - it's not that Shooty is mistakenly applying pre-FA arbitration rules to free agents, but that if the Yankees offer significantly less to Abreu or Rodgriguez than their 2008 salaries, they would lose.

Abreu's counting stats would guarantee him $12M plus in arbitration, and likewise Rodriguez could expect eight figures. The Yankees can't offer less than that because they'd lose the arbitration hearing if they did.

EDIT: guess I'm too nice. shooty's still basically right, though. The Yankees can't offer less, if they go to arb. And one thing to CP - about two months ago, I would have agreed with you. But now, what with the economy and all, there's a danger of salary contraction, and no one really knows what's going to happen. John Moores appears to be broke (see the Hoffman salary story), for instance.

Seriously, how many times does this have to be corrected before people stop making this statement? The Yankees can offer them anything they damn well please in arbitration down to the MLB minimum salary. The 20% decrease limit only applies to pre-FA arbitration.

Once for me -- I didn't know this before and don't remember reading it. :)

Of course there is the practical lower limit -- if Abreu went in for 15M and the Yankees went in for 500K, Abreu would win, right? It's not like the Price Is Right where you can't go over the suggested retail value.

EDIT: MCoA, Pepsi, Coke, Tab or Royal Crown? Caffeine or no? Diet or Regular?

Personally, I like the Abreu to the Cubs rumors. The spectacle of Abreu feeling for a brick wall while still 100 feet away from it could be fun.

I-Rod is a B FA, so he costs nothing pick-wise to a team that needs catching help.

He'll probably be gone by the time the deadline for offering arbitration rolls around, so the Yanks may well not even have to make this choice...

The spectacle of Abreu feeling for a brick wall while still 100 feet away from it could be fun.
Maybe they can train the ivy to shoot out about 10 feet, so he has enough of a margin to be comfortable.

Maybe they can train the ivy to shoot out about 10 feet, so he has enough of a margin to be comfortable.

Yeah, but you have to feed ivy like that human blood.

Don't ($&% with the Jesus!

I-Rod would be a decent backup catcher anyway, so even he does accept arbitration, it's not a big deal. Would kinda suck to be stuck with Abreu again, but it's only money and a 1 year deal and I doubt he accepts anyway. He will get a 2-3 year offer from someone.

Yep. Depending on how much he declines in 2009, Pudge may even be a cromulent starter, although I'd be a lot more comfortable with him as a backup. Either way, him accepting arbitration isn't the worst thing in the world... especially since you can almost certainly flip him at the deadline for a live arm or something.

There's no way in the world Abreu is getting less than 2 years/$24M from somebody, and I expect him to wind up with 3 years someplace. If the Yanks don't want him, offering him arb is a no-brainer.

Ivan Rodriguez described as "cromulent." Can the end of the world be far behind?

Why? He embiggened the thread by using it correctly.

Why? He embiggened the thread by using it correctly.

You stole my bit.

Well done.

hmmm ... goldman ####### about the yankees' 08 draft and the state of the farm system.

yawn.

he's been harping on this since june, no matter who tries to talk him off the ledge with the reminder that the draft didn't end after the 2nd round and that the yankees spent money downdraft on signability picks.

whatever.

If the Yankees sign 3 type A free agents (say sabathia, texiera and lowe), they'll lose their natural 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks.

If Abreu and Pudge sign elsewhere, the worst they could get out of it would be a sandwich and a 2nd, both protected.

Which means that the Yankees could sign 3 top tier free agents and still be absolutely guaranteed a 1st, a supplemental and 2 2nd round picks.

The horror ... the horror!

hmmm ... goldman ####### about the yankees' 08 draft and the state of the farm system.

yawn.

he's been harping on this since june, no matter who tries to talk him off the ledge with the reminder that the draft didn't end after the 2nd round and that the yankees spent money downdraft on signability picks.

whatever.

If the Yankees sign 3 type A free agents (say sabathia, texiera and lowe), they'll lose their natural 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks.

If Abreu and Pudge sign elsewhere, the worst they could get out of it would be a sandwich and a 2nd, both protected.

Which means that the Yankees could sign 3 top tier free agents and still be absolutely guaranteed a 1st, a supplemental and 2 2nd round picks.

The horror ... the horror!

QFT.

Yep. Depending on how much he declines in 2009, Pudge may even be a cromulent starter, although I'd be a lot more comfortable with him as a backup.

"Pudge" will probably be a starter someplace. The market for catchers is always thin. Pudge was terrible in his short stint with the Yankees, but okay with Detroit (a 98 OPS+), and he still seems able to throw out runners. He is 54 games short of breaking the real Pudge's record for games caught, and he might not get that as a back-up.

Some team will take a flyer on him.

Well, the Yanks declined to offer Abreu arbitration. Wowzers!