I agree, but this is a little odd:

in his first six full seasons in the United States, he has done the following:

• Never failed to hit lower than .303

How many of us can say the same?

Three questions, all strongly related:

1. How much credit should Hall of Merit voters give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?
2. How much credit should Hall of Fame voters give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?
3. How much credit should those individuals who try and make ratings lists (NBJHBA lists, for example) give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?

These questions will also apply for players like Hideki Matsui, Hideo Nomo, and anyone else with a significant career on both sides of the Pacific.

1. How much credit should Hall of Merit voters give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?
2. How much credit should Hall of Fame voters give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?
3. How much credit should those individuals who try and make ratings lists (NBJHBA lists, for example) give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?

I also want to see the same criteria applied to Sadaharu Oh.

1278 hits in NPB, 1436 and counting in MLB. He'll be approaching 3000 around late summer 2008, and that'll be a lot of fun.

My hope, on the Hall of Fame front, is that the obvious reasons to include Ichiro's greatness in Japan in making the case for his candidacy will lead the Hall to work with Japanese experts and authorities to determine the best way to honor the great ballplayers who played their entire careers in NPB. Wouldn't that induction ceremony be a great thing?

If I'd maintained an average of 225 hits per season since I was born, I would have 7425 hits by the end of this year. Making my accomplishment more impressive is that I would have maintained that average even through three labor-problem-shortened seasons, puberty, learning to walk, and the time I broke my arm playing basketball.

You've got my vote.

Since the rules in Japan and the US essentially prevented these guys from showcasing their skills in MLB, it seems only fair to consider their entire careers as best as possible, just as has been done for the Negro Leaguers. It doesn't seem hard at all to come up with some pretty accurate MLEs for Ichiro--his performance in the US has been very close to what he did in Japan, with a somewhat lower average but greater hit totals due to the longer seasons. I'd put him in today, waiving the ten year rule. If he makes it to ten years or beyond, I don't think there's a good argument for leaving him out.

It would be trickier with Oh, given the period in which he played, but it certainly could be done--didn't BP just provide some home run translations that suggested he'd have about 500 homers in today's context?--and I'd have no problem with him being considered for the Hall of Fame. It should be noted, though, that the Hall has honored only those people who contributed at some point to the game in the US. I don't know if that's written in stone somewhere, but it might be.

Should Oh go into the Mexican hall or the Cuban one? Should Ichiro? If not, that makes a pretty good case for leaving Oh out of Cooperstown.

By the time he's done Ichiro will have a very strong near lock case even if you ignore his time in japan.

I would also like it noted that I made the outlandish claim that Ichiro would end up with more hits than Rose well over a year ago. Phil Pepe is just riding my coattails.

the Hall has honored only those people who contributed at some point to the game in the US.

The Hockey Hall of Fame used to be like that (only players/builders in North America), but they opened up to let Tretiak in despite never playing a game in a North American league. I think if you want to be a true sport hall of fame (and not a league hall of fame), you want to allow foreign players/builders in as well.

Are there any people in baseball's hall of fame that never contributed to the major leagues?
Like minor league owners/builders?

I also want to see the same criteria applied to Sadaharu Oh.

The problem is that the HoM was created as an alternate view of the HOF. Since Oh at the present time is not eligible in Cooperstown, we have to follow suit.

As far as I know, everybody in the HoF, other than some of the Negro Leaguers, was involved with the majors at some point.

Alexander Cartwright never made it to the big leagues.

I think when assessing a potential HOFer who has a significant degree in Japan--don't look too closely at the numbers or trying to establish an EQA or MLE or some such device. I think you need to take more of a Keltner List approach.

Was the player considered a star, a superstar, a legend, or a god? Star or superstar....well, that includes Tuffy Rhodes. Oh and Ichiro were legends and gods--that deserves weight. If he had an amazing career in America but didn't have enough years to amass the counting stats that pretty much make you a lock (300 wins, 4000 K, 3000 hits, 500 HR etc.) then being a legend/god in Japan tips it in his favour.

Best Regards

John

Alexander Cartwright never made it to the big leagues.

And he still has better Hall of Fame stats than Tommy McCarthy, Ray Schalk, Jesse Haines, Rabit Maranville, Chick Hafey, Travis Jackson, Jim Bottomley, and Joe Tinker.

By the time he's done Ichiro will have a very strong near lock case even if you ignore his time in japan.

Not unless he raises his game to a new level -- granted switching to CF does that -- and has several more strong seasons left in his career. I mean, let's not get too carried away here. The man has never had a great season. He's finished in the top 10 in OPS+ once, and he's been a corner OF for most of his career. (And yes, I know OPS doesn't take steals into account. But in his best OPS+ season, a 135, he was 36-11 in stolen bases; the steals didn't add a _huge_ amount of value.)

He's got a long way to go in the majors before he can sniff the career value of guys like Jack/Will Clark, and Dwight/Darrell Evans, and Dave Parker, and Fred Lynn. Let alone your average Hall of Famers.

By the time he's done Ichiro will have a very strong near lock case even if you ignore his time in japan.

I don't disagree as much as Ray does in #16 because I think Ichiro will more or (probably, slightly) less keep doing what he's been doing at center but he raises valid points about comparing Ichiro to the Clarks and Evanses.

However, I do think that Ichiro in Japan + Ichiro in MLB = HoF

Don't the Japanese leagues have their own hall of fame? Why would we need to recognize someone like Oh in ours?

Don't the Japanese leagues have their own hall of fame? Why would we need to recognize someone like Oh in ours?

I'd rather not see the one in Cooperstown as "ours." I'd rather see a more definitive, universal, and global Baseball HoF that honors the best in the entire sport, no matter where they happened to play.

I know that players with speed tend to age relatively well, but I don't see any reason to believe that Ichiro will be a better hitter from ages 34-40 than he was from ages 27-33. Or even the same hitter.

He doesn't walk much and has little power. So his game basically depends on his speed; when he starts losing his speed, his batting average will decrease, he'll start walking less, he'll start hitting for less power, his steals will decrease, and he'll lose some of his defense. His speed drives all of those things. It drives the batting average because of the infield hits, and the batting average drives the walks: over 1/3 of his walks are intentional, and pitchers won't walk him intentionally if he's only hitting .300. His speed also drives the power because of the speed-related doubles, and it drives his defense.

Since he won't be as fast from ages 34-40 as he was from ages 27-33, I see no reason to believe that he'll be the same hitter.

I doubt that he'll get many votes but Nomo deserves credit for proving that Japanese players could cut it in the big leagues. I know he wasn't the first guy to play but he was the first Japanese player to have great success.

By the time he's done Ichiro will have a very strong near lock case even if you ignore his time in japan.

Not unless he raises his game to a new level -- granted switching to CF does that -- and has several more strong seasons left in his career. I mean, let's not get too carried away here. The man has never had a great season. He's finished in the top 10 in OPS+ once, and he's been a corner OF for most of his career. (And yes, I know OPS doesn't take steals into account. But in his best OPS+ season, a 135, he was 36-11 in stolen bases; the steals didn't add a _huge_ amount of value.)

He's got a long way to go in the majors before he can sniff the career value of guys like Jack/Will Clark, and Dwight/Darrell Evans, and Dave Parker, and Fred Lynn. Let alone your average Hall of Famers.

Assuming Ichiro continues to play at the same pace until 2010 or beyond, I think, ignoring Japan, he's a perfect case of the difference between the Hall of Fame and the Hall of Merit. Ichiro has had a much more <u>significant</u> major-league career than any of the guys you mention. He was perceived as the best player on the team that tied the Major-League record for regular-season wins. He broke an 80-year-old record that more or less <u>defines</u> hitting, total number of hits in a season. He was the first Japanese position player of any note in the Major Leagues and arguably the first Japanese superstar in the North American major leagues (Nomo was a sensation but didn't really maintain it as well). My impression is that Ichiro! was also a key factor in increasing interest in MLB in Japan - in some ways, one could argue that the WBC is one of Ichiro's legacies. Maybe I'm overstating his case, but Ichiro! has been <u>important</u> to Major League Baseball in ways that Fred Lynn and Darrell Evans never were.

Ichiro has had a much more significant major-league career than any of the guys you mention.

Not to me he hasn't.

He was perceived as the best player on the team that tied the Major-League record for regular-season wins.

Not by me he wasn't. I'll take Bret Boone's and Freddy Garcia's seasons over his, and maybe Edgar's also.

He broke an 80-year-old record that more or less defines hitting, total number of hits in a season.

Not to me it doesn't.

He was the first Japanese position player of any note in the Major Leagues and arguably the first Japanese superstar in the North American major leagues (Nomo was a sensation but didn't really maintain it as well).

Ichiro has never been a superstar as far as I'm concerned. For example, his best season by OPS+ hasn't equaled ARod's _average_ season.

Since he won't be as fast from ages 34-40 as he was from ages 27-33, I see no reason to believe that he'll be the same hitter

Almost nobody's as good at 34-40 as they were 27-33. But it's worth noting that Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn, both in the same small category of hitter as Ichiro, were very good in their mid-to-late 30s, after most of their speed was gone. The big change for them was that they didn't stay in the lineup nearly as well any more, but they could hit .330 when they were in it. Ichiro has been amazingly durable, but one would not expect him to keep playing 160 games a year for many more years.

Ichiro has never been a superstar as far as I'm concerned.

You're entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't change that fact that almost everyone else does see him that way. Kiko is right -- he's had a significant impact on the sport and is regarded by almost all fans, writers, and players as a superstar.

What Kiko said.

Also, Ray, I totally agree of all your reasons not to believe that Ichiro won't age well. He very well may not but I also think that Ichrio has earned some benefit of doubt simply because he is very much unlike any MLB hitter before him. Not only does he have a much different philosophy of hitting, he has a much different training regime than his American peers, something that's basically unprecedented and unquantifiable that we really can't predict with any real confidence how he'll age.

But in his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons, Ichiro has adapted to center field amazingly well and automatically increased his value just by moving there. He is also suddenly posting historic SB percentages (96% last year, 92% this year) which, to me, says that he's learning how to make up for his oncoming physical decline. I don't think that he'll be worth his new contract but I do think that he can fight off his inevitable decline for a few more years and solidify a HoF resume.

To me, it's like all these 40+ year-old pitchers playing these days. Every year, we can say that this will be the year that Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, David Wells, and Jamie Moyer will finally hit a brick wall and sooner or later, we'll be right. But because we're playing in a such a unique age that there's no precedent for these kinds of guys, we just won't know which Age it'll happen in until it happens.

Ichiro has had a much more significant major-league career than any of the guys you mention.

Not to me he hasn't.

He was perceived as the best player on the team that tied the Major-League record for regular-season wins.

Not by me he wasn't. I'll take Bret Boone's and Freddy Garcia's seasons over his, and maybe Edgar's also.

He broke an 80-year-old record that more or less defines hitting, total number of hits in a season.

Not to me it doesn't.

All of which establishes persuasively that Ichiro won't be making it into the Hall of Ray DiPerna.

It drives the batting average because of the infield hits

While I would concede the loss of speed will impact his game, I'm not sure how much his BA is going to suffer. I think based on the way he handles the bat, he will not hit the ball on the ground as often when his speed starts to decline.

Don't you have both Pete Rose and Joe Jackson in the Hall of Merit?

I was referring to eligibility beyond an outright ban (de facto or de jure) like Rose and Jackson received from the HOF.

... he is very much unlike any MLB hitter before him. Not only does he have a much different philosophy of hitting, he has a much different training regime than his American peers, something that's basically unprecedented and unquantifiable that we really can't predict with any real confidence how he'll age.

I'll have to disagree. Ichiro is indeed very much unlike the vast majority of hitters in this home run-happy era, but there certainly have been MLB hitters like him in the past. His approach and swing seem quite reminiscent of the way many dead-ball era hitters have been described, as well as the many contact-oriented line-drive hitters who continued to largely populate lineups through the 1920s and 30s. I've often thought a particular guy with a whole lot in common with Ichiro was Paul Waner.

It's enormously overstating things to call Ichiro "unprecedented and unquantifiable."

Almost nobody's as good at 34-40 as they were 27-33. But it's worth noting that Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn, both in the same small category of hitter as Ichiro, were very good in their mid-to-late 30s, after most of their speed was gone. The big change for them was that they didn't stay in the lineup nearly as well any more, but they could hit .330 when they were in it.

19% of Ichiro's hits from 2002-2007 were infield hits. I can't find his numbers for 2001 or the numbers for Gwynn and Carew. But Ichiro has led the league in infield hits at least a couple of times. Did Gwynn and Carew have such a high percentage of infield hits? That's why I think Ichiro's offense is so tied to his speed.

I note that Gwynn and Carew didn't have as high a percentage of raw singles as Ichiro does: 81% of Ichiro's hits have been singles. It's 79% for Carew, and 76% for Gwynn. And Carew and Gwynn played in an era in which extra base hits were less frequent as a percentage of hits.

John speaks for the HOM more than just about anyone, but I'll take a stab at the three questions posed above.

1. How much credit should Hall of Merit voters give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?

As full credit as he would be entitled to were he a Negro Leaguer or a MiL guy like Arlett or Cravath. MLEs are instructive here, and they will be somewhat more accurate, I'm sure, than our NgL MLEs. I would expect that the HOM members would also delve into his pre-NPB days in an effort to see if he played Japanese minor league ball, and to find out what the transition from amatuer to pro is like in Japan. For some he may, therefore, fall under the show-me season rationale whereby players in non-MLB leagues are not credited fully for extra-MLB play, but only for the first season after which they demonstrate MLB-level performance.

In addition, I second the other John's notion that we need to ask Keltner questions about his Japanese time. Many voters eschew MLEs in favor of a Keltner-type approach. Some only use MLEs. Some combine them to buttress one with the other. The diversity of approaches is, to me, a HOM strength, and I think Ichiro's case will bring them all to bear.

In addition, I should note that I disagree with one thing Pepe says in that Ichiro's hit total should realistically be seen as (NPB MLE Hits) + MLB hits, rather than as simply NPB hits + MLB hits.

2. How much credit should Hall of Fame voters give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?

I personally believe they should take it as a positive in his case no matter what (be it in hand-waving away their concerns about whether or not his NPB time should count or in using a less formal MLE-type approach). A very big part of Ichiro's case is fame. The fame that brought us Catfish and Rollie (or the infame that keeps Dick Allen out) also plays a role in this case. As to exactly how much credit, well, I think the Negro League is an instructive precedent, but I also think given the newness of the NPB migration, the Hall of Fame should probably give the voters some instruction.

3. How much credit should those individuals who try and make ratings lists (NBJHBA lists, for example) give Ichiro for his time in Japan, if any?

Full credit. such listings are generally asking this question: Who is the best? Ichiro should be ranked then on his total body of work, because to not do so would obscure how great he actually was. List makers are constrained only by their own rules, and they should craft these lists knowing that NgLs, MiL-indentured guys, and war-era draftees all fall under this similar rubric. As one longtime HOM voter puts it: guys who are affected by the accident of their birthdate, geography, and skin color are candidates for consideration of their circumstances. Any list without these considerations is necessarily limited, and, in my opinion, of limited interest. But that's just my feeling.

These questions will also apply for players like Hideki Matsui, Hideo Nomo, and anyone else with a significant career on both sides of the Pacific.

I wholly agree with this, and it's possible, even probable, that Hideki Matsui will merit induction into at least one of the two Halls as a result.

But the Japanese guys are merely the latest guys whose cases are not cut-and-dried in this way. In fact, the recent HOF NgL special election passed on some candidates who played in the NgLs in the US and should have been looked at in a more extra-MLB way [working off the top of my head on this one, sorry for omissions or inaccuracies]:
Quincy Trouppe (for Mexican League play)
Pancho Coimbre (for play throughout the Carribean)
Dobie Moore (for play before the NNL in the 17th Infantry Wreckers---I think it was 17th, someone please correct me)
pitchers Ramon Bragana and Cocania Garcia (for Mexican and Carribean play)
Bus Clarkson (for post-integration MiL play and Mexican play)
Artie Wilson (for PCL play after integration)
Tetelo Vargas (Caribbean play).

Plus tack on Cravath and Arlett, and a couple other guys whose cases might be construed as having an opportunity for credit, and it's a long list of guys who could be assessed more accurately in this way.

Lots of folks disagree in that "it didn't happen in the majors" and/or "it's a slippery slope." Well, yeah, it is, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't look at every piece of information or that you should go off half-cocked on everyone who might have hit .350 in a minor league.

Anyway, just my thoughts as a HOM guy.

For example, his best season by OPS+ hasn't equaled ARod's _average_ season.

That's a pretty bogus baseline. OPS+ is probably the worst way in the world to sum up Ichiro. Ichiro has been a very plus defender his entire career, he is routinely in the top 5 in PAs, he is a great (potentially historically great given his SB%) baserunner, and his value is in getting on base.

It's enormously overstating things to call Ichiro "unprecedented and unquantifiable."

Ichiro grew up 80 years later on a completely different diet, in a different country, with different training. And that only scratches the surface of the differences. If the best comp you can find with regard to Ichiro is Paul Waner, then I would guess that there is no way to predict how Ichiro is going to age. There are so many differences between Ichiro and the deadball hitters off the field, that even if their numbers and stlye are similiar, I don't think you can draw any meaningful conclusions on how Ichiro's career will proceed from theirs.

All of which establishes persuasively that Ichiro won't be making it into the Hall of Ray DiPerna.

I agree that he stands an excellent chance of _actually_ being elected. And I personally would give him some credit for his Japan years, since it's clear that he was good enough to play in the majors during that time.

But what I am saying is that his career to this point has simply not been overly impressive to me, and certainly not of Hall of Fame quality. He's had a nice career, and it's a neat story that he was able to translate his game to the majors. But to me, the Hall of Fame is about _value_, absent some extenuating circumstance. And on that score he is less deserving than a whole host of players who are not in. If you want to see him inducted because of who he is, fine -- and I may even listen -- but just admit that that's what you're doing. Don't try to distract me with his shiny batting average while you're lifting my wallet.

Treder,

Agreed. But how come Paul Waner? Waner's got a lot more power (with many, many of those triples being HR in any park but Forbes) and a lot less speed (I think).

and certainly not of Hall of Fame quality.

Ray, he well exceeds the resume of probably 1/4th of the Hall already (if you take some Japan into account...maybe even if you don't!).

Paul Waner, to follow on Ray's point in #32, had 71% singles in his career hits. Now, Lloyd Waner had 83% singles ...

Willie Keeler is another distant relative of Ichiro in terms of style. 86% career singles, and he was useless after he turned 35 ... though that was 100 years ago ...

and certainly not of Hall of Fame quality.

Ray, he well exceeds the resume of probably 1/4th of the Hall already (if you take some Japan into account...maybe even if you don't!).

I'm sorry, but 7 seasons, consisting of 3 mediocre, 3 very good, and possibly 1 great (if we give him this year)? _That_ exceeds probably 1/4 of the Hall already?

For example, his best season by OPS+ hasn't equaled ARod's _average_ season.

That's a pretty bogus baseline. OPS+ is probably the worst way in the world to sum up Ichiro. Ichiro has been a very plus defender his entire career, he is routinely in the top 5 in PAs, he is a great (potentially historically great given his SB%) baserunner, and his value is in getting on base.

He's been a plus defender -- but at a corner OF position (and now CF but only recently). And you make a good point about his durability, but it's not like players like ARod, Jeter, Pujols, and Vlad Guerrero haven't stayed in the lineup (remember, we're comparing him to Hall of Famers).

He's averaging 40-9 SB-CS per 162 games. It's very good, but again, not a huge amount of value, and it's not like the players listed above don't steal bases.

His .379 OBP is excellent, but the players listed above all have higher OBPs. With higher SLGs. Remember -- we're comparing him to Hall of Famers.

I did say you should take some Japan into account... Let's just say you give him enough for 10-12 years (so five years of NPB credit):

Earle Combs
Jesse Haines
Travis Jackson
Rick Ferrell
Rube Marquard
Luis Aparicio
Jack Chesbro
Catfish Hunter
Chick Hafey
Waite Hoyt
George Kell
George Kelly
Fred Lindstrom
Tommy McCarthy
Herb Pennock
(probably even with Puckett)
Red Schoendienst
Paul Waner
Ross Youngs
Bruce Sutter
Ray Schalk

In just a couple-few more years he'll pass by lots of others too. A quarter was hyperbolic, if we're only giving 5 NPB years, but these 20+ guys represent about 10% of the Hall's players. And many guys I left off this list are prime/career-oriented guys like Lou Brock, Harry Hooper, or Dave Bancroft who Ichiro will pass pretty easily if he's good through his new contract.

Remember -- we're comparing him to Hall of Famers.

Shouldn't we compare him to leadoff men, then? Because that's what he is. We didn't compare Wade Boggs to Hank Aaron.

His .379 OBP is excellent, but the players listed above all have higher OBPs. With higher SLGs. Remember -- we're comparing him to Hall of Famers.

Oh yeah, I don't think Ichiro is a HOFer yet. I just think that citing OPS+ is an unusually incomplete picture of his value as a player.

But I do think he's going to age really well and play for ever, and be a HOFer by the time he's done. I also think that if offense comes down (which I hope it does), Ichiro's raw numbers will be unaffected, and his adjusted rate stats will be better. And no, I have no evidence to back any of this up (although all his good years have come in the below average offensive years of his career).

Shouldn't we compare him to leadoff men, then? Because that's what he is. We didn't compare Wade Boggs to Hank Aaron.

I see no reason why we would want to. Lineup positions are fungible.

"Leadoff man" is not a position. Right field is a position. Third base is a position. The manager doesn't play hunches and decide to move McGwire from 1B to SS on a whim, like he might move McGwire from 4th to 3rd in the lineup on any given day.

We didn't compare Wade Boggs to Hank Aaron -- but we _did_ compare him to George Brett.

19% of Ichiro's hits from 2002-2007 were infield hits. I can't find his numbers for 2001 or the numbers for Gwynn and Carew.

Out of Gwynn's 2,378 career singles, 285 appear to be infield hits (hits where any of P, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, or SS were the players that "fielded" the single). There are 472 singles we don't know about, so 15% of the singles we know about were infield hits.

For Carew, it's also 15%, but a bit higher.

Ichiro!? 19%.

In just a couple-few more years he'll pass by lots of others too. A quarter was hyperbolic, if we're only giving 5 NPB years, but these 20+ guys represent about 10% of the Hall's players.

Eric, your post #41 is a good one. But what you're essentially saying is that if we give Ichiro 5 years of credit, _then_ he can be compared to the bottom 10% of the Hall. Well, guys like the ones I mentioned (the Evanses, the Clarks, Rice, Murphy, Parker, Dawson) can be compared to the bottom 10% of the Hall. How does Ichiro's career distinguish from them?

I think if you want to be a true sport hall of fame (and not a league hall of fame), you want to allow foreign players/builders in as well.

It's not a true sport hall of fame. Its official name is The National Baseball Hall of Fame, putting its context definitively as baseball played in America.

I'm with Ray on this one. He says things just like I think.

(Didn't want you to think you were alone, Ray)

(Didn't want you to think you were alone, Ray)

Thanks. I was beginning to wonder if I was a lone voice in the wilderness :-)

Thanks. I was beginning to wonder if I was a lone voice in the wilderness.

I'm there often enough against the UNion and mgl.

The manager doesn't play hunches and decide to move McGwire from 1B to SS on a whim, like he might move McGwire from 4th to 3rd in the lineup on any given day.

I don't think it quite works that way. When you have so many outstanding hitters you can't decide whom to bat 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, that's a good problem to have. When you have that many hitters who all play the outfield, the guys who are more valuable are the guys who play premium defensive at least competently, and there will still probably be a hitter left on the bench. In Ichiro's case (CF), he's among the very best in the game, as he was when he was a RF.

I also disagree that "leadoff man" is not a position. It's not a literal position, sure, but Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Paul Molitor and even Richie Ashburn have all built HoF cases because of their leadoff exploits. The greatest leadoff hitters led off because they were the best kind of hitters one could be without having the power to hit elsewhere. Even leadoff hitters with an occasional brilliant seasons like '92 Dykstra or '06 Reyes created a lot of value leading off the game by getting on base and stealing and scoring their way home from second utilizing their speed and base-running smarts. I think Ichiro belongs in that category.

'93 Dykstra, I mean.

Here's a question: regardless of all other considerations of his quality, if a player knocks out 3000 hits in fifteen seasons or fewer, would that make him a Hall of Famer? Say a DH or a clumsy first baseman who hits basically nothing but singles.

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I'd think that anyone who could manage 200 hits a year for fifteen years would have made a strong case for the hall even if he brought nothing else to the table. Anything else would be gravy. And Ichiro provides a lot of gravy.

The manager doesn't play hunches and decide to move McGwire from 1B to SS on a whim, like he might move McGwire from 4th to 3rd in the lineup on any given day.

I don't think it quite works that way. When you have so many outstanding hitters you can't decide whom to bat 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, that's a good problem to have. When you have that many hitters who all play the outfield, the guys who are more valuable are the guys who play premium defensive at least competently, and there will still probably be a hitter left on the bench. In Ichiro's case (CF), he's among the very best in the game, as he was when he was a RF.

Hmm. I'm not trying to be difficult here -- but I'm not quite following that. I certainly don't see its relevance to my statement above. I talked about how players can't switch defensive positions on a whim, and you followed with a statement that related only to outfielders.

Anyway, as for batting them 2nd-6th, you can almost pick the names out of a hat; there's not much of a difference between any reasonable lineup.

I also disagree that "leadoff man" is not a position. It's not a literal position, sure, but Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Paul Molitor and even Richie Ashburn have all built HoF cases because of their leadoff exploits. The greatest leadoff hitters led off because they were the best kind of hitters one could be without having the power to hit elsewhere.

These guys could all hit elsewhere in the lineup (indeed, Raines hit third for a stretch). It's just that a more sensible lineup has them at the top. Guys like Henderson and Raines certainly had a fair amount of power in their primes.

I'm sorry, but 7 seasons, consisting of 3 mediocre, 3 very good, and possibly 1 great (if we give him this year)? _That_ exceeds probably 1/4 of the Hall already?

Interesting definition of mediocre. In his three worst seasons, Ichiro had WARPs of 8.2, 8.5, and 9.1. IOW, in his worst seasons he was better than Travis Hafner

I also disagree that "leadoff man" is not a position. It's not a literal position, sure, but Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Paul Molitor and even Richie Ashburn have all built HoF cases because of their leadoff exploits.

Leadoff man isn't a position.
Molitor definitely made the HOF on the second half of his career. He wasn't even a real candidate as a leadoff hitter. He got ~1100 of his hits *after* turning 35 and moving to the 3 hole (hmmm...)

Interesting definition of mediocre. In his three worst seasons, Ichiro had WARPs of 8.2, 8.5, and 9.1. IOW, in his worst seasons he was better than Travis Hafner

Doesn't WARP include BPro's defense "rankings"? Where do their offenses compare? Because the defense stats of BPro isn't worth the electrons sending that information.

My fault for not articulating it well enough but I was actually trying to say that the manager can't move McGwire from 1st to SS on a whim; he can't move him to anywhere but DH on a whim. What he can do, however, is move Ichiro from CF and RF or, if he wants to give him a day off from fielding, DH if he so pleases. The fact that Ichiro plays a premium up-the-middle position exceptionally well as well as run the bases at a near-historic rate (at least lately), adds a lot of value in Ichiro's favor as far as the offensive difference between him and, say, McGwire.

Certainly you could pick 2-6 out of a hat and I also agree that Rickey and Timmy Raines could hit elsewhere in the lineup. Molitor also hit 3rd for a stretch. But because of their base-running combined with their OBP, a manager would be inclined to extract every last run he could by hitting them 1st. The fact that Rickey and Timmy had power is what made them arguably the best and second-best lead-off men in history.

Maybe you and I have conflicting definitions of a HoF. I tend to compare lead-off men to like lead-off men (as much as I did Boggs to Brett), just as I won't compare shutdown 9th inning relievers to starters once Mariano gets in. I think the HoF is about being among the best at what you do during your era. While Ichiro may not be a Pujols/A-Rod-level superduper star, he IS a perennial All-Star who does every thing very well but hit for power, has for years, and is the best lead-off hitter of his time as well as among the best defensive players of his time.

Henderson and Raines probably have more career value than Ichiro, yes. I would agree with Bill James's assertion that if you divide Henderson in half, you'd have two HoFs. But if you don't divide Ichiro in half, you would still have one Hall of Famer.

Doesn't WARP include BPro's defense "rankings"? Where do their offenses compare? Because the defense stats of BPro isn't worth the electrons sending that information.

OK, in his three worst seasons, Ichiro had EQRs of 105, 113, and 114. In his best three years, Hafner had EQRs of 113, 121, and 126. So Hafner has ~10 EQR advantage per year. Wasted electrons or no, surely 160 games of GG caliber defense in right vs a DH is worth about 10 runs a year, no?

The fact that Ichiro plays a premium up-the-middle position exceptionally well

Hold on - can he play at least one season there first?

Hold on - can he play at least one season there first?

He's played a season and a half. That's at least one.

surely 160 games of GG caliber defense in right vs a DH is worth about 10 runs a year, no?

Isn't EQR a counting stat? There's a massive gap in their EQAs. I mean *massive*. And I have long differed on the Gold Gloved-ness of Ichiro's actual defense. But *Maybe* Ichiro is as good as Hafner all-around. I hate the DH. Still, anyone think Hafner is a HOFer?

He's played a season and a half. That's at least one.

No, he hasn't. He's played about 1100 innings. A *single* season is about 1350 innings. (ed. and only 129 games)

No, he hasn't. He's played about 1100 innings. A *single* season is about 1350 innings. (ed. and only 129 games)

Touche. I made a knee-jerk, d/che-bag response and you burned me. But I do think that Ichiro can be one of the best defensive center fielders in the game for another couple years, at least as long to pad his HoF resume, if not as long as his contract. Which was the point I was trying to make from the beginning.

I would expect that the HOM members would also delve into his pre-NPB days in an effort to see if he played Japanese minor league ball, and to find out what the transition from amatuer to pro is like in Japan.

Ichiro spent two years (age 18 and 19) in the Japanese minor leagues (Japan Western League), and hit .366 and .371. I'm not sure how many plate appearances were needed to qulify for the batting title in that league, but I have heard announcers on the Mariners' broadcasts note that he won two minor-league and seven major-league batting championships in Japan.

Still, anyone think Hafner is a HOFer?

Of course not. But does anyone think of Hafner as mediocre?

But *Maybe* Ichiro is as good as Hafner all-around.

In his worst seasons. I brought Hafner into the discussion only to refute Ray's charcterazation of Ichiro's three worst seasons as mediocre.

Yes, EqR is a counting stat. It tells you how unimpressive those seasons were that a guy giving up 100+ plate appearances comes out ahead when measuring against a baseline of zero. Measure against replacement and the gap widens considerably.


I brought Hafner into the discussion only to refute Ray's charcterazation of Ichiro's three worst seasons as mediocre.

.275-.280 EqAs out of a corner outfielder aren't far from it.

In his worst seasons.

Um, disagree. Ichiro has two (counting this season) EQAs over .300. Hafner has three over .320. Ichiro in his BEST seasons might be as good as Hafner.

But I do think that Ichiro can be one of the best defensive center fielders in the game for another couple years, at least as long to pad his HoF resume, if not as long as his contract. Which was the point I was trying to make from the beginning.

As I said, "we'll see". He has been (IMO) a better CF than he ever was a RF (I wrote a long time ago they should play him in CF rather than RF).

But your point is taken. I don't think he shouold be elected, although it wouldn't surprise me, given the voters. Remember, his accomplishments will be in the HOF.

Maybe you and I have conflicting definitions of a HoF. I tend to compare lead-off men to like lead-off men (as much as I did Boggs to Brett), just as I won't compare shutdown 9th inning relievers to starters once Mariano gets in.

I think we do have conflicting definitions of a HOFer. Like here, when you just automatically take it as a given that Rivera goes in. Don't get me wrong -- I'd probably put him in and he's certainly qualified by the Sutter standard, but I'd still need to think long and hard about it. I mean, 920 innings. My god. I don't see why he's a HOFer, yet someone like Kevin Brown is on the outside looking in.

Take Johan Santana, as another example. Nobody thinks he's done close to enough at this stage, and yet he _already_ has 300 more innings than Rivera. And is tied for the 3rd best ERA+ in history. (Granted Rivera is first.)

I think the HoF is about being among the best at what you do during your era.

The obvious counter-example is a pinch hitter. How about a mop-up man? Pinch runner? Should the leader in triples be in, regardless of how good a player he was? Steals? We already see the problem with this logic by looking at the career saves statistic, which has changed hands four times in the last 15 years; by this logic, all of Reardon, Smith, Franco, and Hoffman are in. With Saberhagen and Jimmy Key and Dave Stieb on the outside. To say nothing of the revitalized cases the Kent Tekulves of the world would have.

While Ichiro may not be a Pujols/A-Rod-level superduper star, he IS a perennial All-Star who does every thing very well but hit for power, has for years, and is the best lead-off hitter of his time as well as among the best defensive players of his time.

So now we need the word "superduper star" to classify players that are clearly better than Ichiro, once we lift him to "superstar"? :)

The power can't just be hand-waved away. It's why he's not up to the level of the others. And I can't let you get away with "best defensive players of his time." The best defensive players of his time are playing short, and second, and catcher, and center field (which he now plays). The defensive position itself is typically more important than quality of defense at a random position.

And this comment isn't directed towards you, but I find it funny how people can tend to complain about a guy because he strikes out a lot, with the claim that striking out is so horrible because it doesn't advance runners like productive outs can -- and yet, some of those same people overlook the fact that Ichiro's infield hits only advance runners at most one base, and less than a typical single to the outfield.

In an attempt to bring the warring parties together (or maybe drive them farther apart) I'll ask again: if a player knocks out 3000 hits in fifteen seasons or fewer, would that make him a Hall of Famer?

I think the HoF is about being among the best at what you do during your era.

<shudder>

f a player knocks out 3000 hits in fifteen seasons or fewer, would that make him a Hall of Famer?

In MLB? Absolutely.

As long as he doesn't bet on baseball.

I brought Hafner into the discussion only to refute Ray's charcterazation of Ichiro's three worst seasons as mediocre.

Ichiro has OPS+s of 110, 109, and 109 in his three worst seasons. And not all that OBP-heavy, either. 109 is about the league average for RFs. I mean, how much credit do you want to give him for 40 steals?

And Hafner blows Ichiro away in Ichiro's worst seasons.

Does anyone disagree? I'm honestly interested in knowing if Ray or anyone else in the thread wouldn't vote in a slap hitter with 3K hits accumulated in less than a couple of decades. Who's the worst hitter with 3000 MLB hits? Lou Brock, maybe? It took him 19 years.

OK, Ichiro's got almost 2750 hits in less than fourteen years, including seven 135-game seasons in Japan's major league. Despite the less competitive environment he was in with the Orix Blue Wave, his hit totals each season have been higher for the Mariners, presumably because of the longer seasons. The majority of his career hits have been in the US. Barring a bizarre catastrophe, there's no way he doesn't reach 3000 total by the end of next year.

So the next question is how much his first seven seasons get discounted, if at all.

Should he maintain his average of 225 hits a season through the life of his new contract, Ichiro will have accumulated more than 2,800 hits, which may be incentive enough for him to continue playing beyond the length of his new contract to pass the 3,000-hit mark.

Should broccoli taste like chocolate, Cookie Monster be Veggie Monster. Sesame Street try that. You see what happen? Me slap them down like ten-dollar lady of evening. Should codeword for hope pray will be. Not happen.

Ooh, OPS+ as a comparison tool for a OBP heavy leadoff man. Rob Neyer is spinning in his flannel.

Incidentally, the studies I've seen say that OBP is even more weighted in the leadoff spot than from the middle of the line up. Is there data that suggests otherwise? Furthermore, isn't baserunning value more than SB/CS? You can't tell me that the difference between Ichiro and Hafner on 1B is just in CS/SB.

He's been extremely consistent and compares well with Raines, another solid HoF (whether the electorate figures it out or not) plus all the pioneer stuff.

Plus, he seems to be fine in CF. If he had put up the same numbers at CF up until now, wouldn't he be the best CF in the game over the time period.

Rightfully, it's probably a moot point. The HoF is a place that deals with tangible and intangible entities, and Ichiro is on the right side of all of the intangibles...

hafner has never played 150 games or managed 600 PA. ichiro's value comes in part from his durability.

Hilarious, CookieMonster.

Does anyone disagree? I'm honestly interested in knowing if Ray or anyone else in the thread wouldn't vote in a slap hitter with 3K hits accumulated in less than a couple of decades.

I think we're with you here.

OK, Ichiro's got almost 2750 hits in less than fourteen years, including seven 135-game seasons in Japan's major league

Oops. I said "In MLB".

So the next question is how much his first seven seasons get discounted, if at all.

In my book, they get discounted 100%. They DON'T COUNT AT ALL.

Just like they didn't count when he was ROY. Was he ROY?

hafner has never played 150 games or managed 600 PA. ichiro's value comes in part from his durability.

Well, VORP takes into account playing time and defensive position, and it shows Hafner lapping Ichiro in Ichiro's worst seasons.

hafner has never played 150 games or managed 600 PA.

Managerial decisions (when he plays as well as batting 4th/5th vs 1st - that's 40 PAs right there).

Managerial decisions (when he plays as well as batting 4th/5th vs 1st - that's 40 PAs right there).

Now who's wishcasting things that didn't happen?

Hafner is worth more in 4th, so he bats fourth.

In my book, they get discounted 100%. They DON'T COUNT AT ALL.

Just like they didn't count when he was ROY. Was he ROY?

Why?

He was Rookie of the Year because it was his first year in MLB, like say Jackie Robinson. However, Suzuki was the first position player from his league--a league which was well within the range for a Major League according to our historical precedents.

Now who's wishcasting things that didn't happen?

WTF? Who said anything about "wishcasting"?

Hafner is worth more in 4th, so he bats fourth.

So? It's not a strike against Hafner that Ichiro has more PAs. He has fewer PAs because he's a better hitter.

Why?

Minor league astats don't count toward the HOF. Never have.

However, Suzuki was the first position player from his league

That doesn't sound right.

a league which was well within the range for a Major League according to our historical precedents.

I disagree. What the AA and Federal League were 100 years ago don't really mean the same as today. The NPB IS NOT a "major league" right now.

Or do you support the induction of Roberto Petagine to the HOF?

Or do you support the induction of Roberto Petagine to the HOF?

Do you support the induction of yourself into the dickish question HoF?

If you are going to make that argument, could you be bothered to come up with someone who actually would have an argument for the HoF if we counted NPB stats?

Or do you support the induction of Homey the Clown into the HoF?

I disagree. What the AA and Federal League were 100 years ago don't really mean the same as today. The NPB IS NOT a "major league" right now.

Why? What are your standards for a "major league"?

So? It's not a strike against Hafner that Ichiro has more PAs. He has fewer PAs because he's a better hitter.

No, he has fewer PAs because he's more effective in the position he bats in than in the leadoff spot.

No, he has fewer PAs because he's more effective in the position he bats in than in the leadoff spot.

Are you denying that Hafner bats 4th because he's a better hitter? Or that a hitter batting 4th will get less PAs than a hitter batting leadoff?

Hint: Hafner would be a better leadoff hitter than Ichiro is. It's just that leadoff isn't the optimal lineup slot for him.

If you are going to make that argument, could you be bothered to come up with someone who actually would have an argument for the HoF if we counted NPB stats?

Do you realize how good Roberto was in Japan? (A lot better than Ichiro has been in the U.S.)

Why is it that I'm the first one to mention that the reason Hafner has had so few plate appearances is because he keeps getting injured? His lineup slot doesn't help, but that's not been the major factor.

Ichiro is a mortal lock for the Hall of Fame.

Anyone read Terry Pratchett?

Well reading this reminds me of the auditors dismantling a paiting atom by atom to find "beauty".

Later

Its official name is The National Baseball Hall of Fame, putting its context definitively as baseball played in America.

No, its full name is The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, and as far as the museum goes, its context is most definitely not baseball played in America, but rather baseball played all over the world.

The "National" name argument is the most specious of all the HOF arguments concerning Japanese players. All the more so when we have an "American League" with a team in Toronto, and until recently had a "National League" with a team in Montreal. Let alone all the non-native players in these leagues. Hell, you can knock me over with a feather, but not all of the Chicago Cubs live in Chicago!

National Gallery of Art? Guess what, it includes art from all over the world. National Public Radio? Neither its broadcast nor its content is exclusive to the United States. How many First National Banks are there that do business with overseas clients?

More baseball? The Society for American Baseball Research is neither limited in scope to American baseball (research committees for Latino Baseball and Asian Baseball) nor to American researchers (research committees in the UK, Canada, and Japan).

The "National" in the HoF was meant to make it sound important, and to distinguish it from local and team Halls of Fame around the country. Professional baseball in Japan and Mexico were in their infancy, and as far as the powers-that-were in Cooperstown in 1939 were concerned, calling it "The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum" covered all the meaningful and high level baseball at the time. As baseball has spread and grown, the Hall has retained its exclusive ties with MLB for HoF induction, but as far as the museum goes, the whole history of the game, including baseball played in other countries, is subject to exhibition and celebration.

So please, argue the strict letter of the law (i.e., rules for induction) if you like, but can we please put this old "National" dog to rest?

Now, the question becomes should the Hall of Fame wing be tied exclusively to MLB play? Well, really, with the induction of Negro Leaguers, that ship has sailed. And yes, the Negro Leagues and NPB are not a directly analogous situation, of course. Negro Leaguer induction was much about "reparations", as it were. The point is, it wouldn't break the Hall to alter its rules and allow by special committee the induction of some of the world's top players.

Very simply, if there isn't a Hall of Fame and Museum for baseball all over the world, then there should be. And given the fact that this (the US) is where baseball started, and where the top level is played, I think it's altogether appropriate and fitting that it be in the States. And since the HoF in Cooperstown has already taken a lead in celebrating baseball all over the world, it would be altogether fitting for it to take the lead in honoring the best players. Not to mention the ridiculous economic sense it would make for the Museum.

Do you realize how good Roberto was in Japan? (A lot better than Ichiro has been in the U.S.)

Do you realize how many years Roberto was good in Japan?

Here's a link to his line for 5 1/2 seasons.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Roberto-Petagine.shtml

I have no idea what you mean by saying he's been a lot better than Ichiro has been in the U.S. Are you saying that the two leagues are equal level? Are you using EQR? Are you accounting for defense/position? Are you accounting for PA?

Are you denying that Hafner bats 4th because he's a better hitter? Or that a hitter batting 4th will get less PAs than a hitter batting leadoff?

Hint: Hafner would be a better leadoff hitter than Ichiro is. It's just that leadoff isn't the optimal lineup slot for him.

Perhaps, or perhaps the fact that he is a scary-looking, plodding baserunner would cause you to over estimate his OBP's impact from the leadoff position.

Furthermore, rate stats are cute, but Hafner has played as many games by 30 as Ichiro would play in 3.75 seasons. Even assuming that Hafner continues to play as many as he has per year up to this point (which is a generous assumption), it would take him until he was 42-43 just to equal Ichiro's playing time up until now.

That's with him at DH.

Furthermore, I'm not sure what the point of this is. If Hafner did somehow play long enough and get enough PAs at his current rate stats, he would sail into the HoF...

Eastern Iowa International Airport doesn't have any international flights.

Ichiro is going to be a first ballot HOFer.

I think the general principle is that high-OBP power hitters would make good leadoff men, and Ichiro types would make less-good cleanup men. Though perhaps that's nonsense; one also hears that batting order doesn't matter very much. I'm inclined to think that OBP matters more than anything -- the main object of the defense's game is to get you out -- and Ichiro's OBP has simply not been outstanding. It's been good -- he's a good leadoff man -- but he is no Richie Ashburn out there.

One thing that I hypothesized is that there's a little extra benefit to Ichiro because he is a contrarian type of hitter. If your other eight hitters have a true-outcomes power approach, does a little slap hitter give you the ability to win against certain types of power pitching, perhaps, by complementing the other guys' approach? Certainly the 2001 Mariners rarely lost to anybody.

But just eyeballing Ichiro's career record against pitchers, I think that's nonsense too. He does poorly against K-Rod, Schilling, Clemens, El Duque, Mo, Matsuzaka, Wang, Suppan, Pedro, Wakefield, and Kenny Rogers. Which incorporates just about every possible variety of pitcher, the common denominator simply being that they're all good. He does especially well against Kevin Gregg, Aaron Sele, Ponson, Padilla, Darren Oliver, John Wasdin, Jose Lima -- and a lot of guys do. Among the stars he has hit exceptionally well are Mulder, Pettitte, and the Unit -- which might mean something (at least, he isn't overmatched against strong lefthanders) and might not mean much at all.

I think that Ichiro is simply a very good baseball player -- I'd want him on the Rangers in a heartbeat -- but he does not really come up to Hall of Fame standards for low-power non-walking outfielders, even with speed and defense factored in. Lloyd Waner, again -- he's a bit better than Lloyd Waner, but I think the consensus is that one should be a good deal better than Lloyd Waner to make the Hall nowadays.

I can't think of any reasonable pattern of aging short of a career-ending injury in the near future that wouldn't end with Ichiro being elected to the HOF.

However, does he deserve to be is a far more interesting question. If those who want to value his Japanese stats highly aren't satisfied with Petagine, will you address the argument if we find someone who accumulated HOF-calibre stats in Japan? The accomplishments some of you seem to want to treat as equal or almost equal for Ichiro (accomplished in a league "well within the stanards for a major league according to historical precedent") apply equally to this player, so can we assume you support their candidacy for the HOF?

Yes. I would especially support the election of Hawaiian Japanese Americans who had HoF careers in NPB.

I'll throw a question back. Is Tim Raines a HoFer?

Clay Davenport did the research, and his findings suggest that the conversion rate for NPB to MLB is something like .94 on EQA, which means about .86 in terms of runs. That puts it at about the same as AAA in terms of its conversion rate. In that sense, it does not play as a major league in the modern sense.

But since Japanese players had no mechanism to get to MLB due to the accident of their birthdate and birth country (they live in a time when their professional migration was restricted by the rules of baseball in their birthplace), there's good reason to use MLE statistics to verify their greatness in a more familiar context and to better understand the bulk of their career.

If I remember correctly, the effect for a .86 (on runs) league is going to be a reduction of around .93 on AVG. I'll go ahead on this premise, someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Ichiro batted .353 in his years in Japan, with 3619 ABs. So that would be .328 in the U.S., which would reduce his hits from 1278 to 1187. That would mean he's at 2673 MLE + MLB hits. Note, no park or league-run adjustments here.

However, as noted upthread, the seasons in Japan are 20-30 games shorter than in the U.S. Conservatively, let's say that Ichiro was playing in 135 game seasons. In which case, his ABs would increase to around 4340. .328 at 4340 MLE 1424 hits. He's at 2910 MLE + MLB hits today.

Obviously I might have the mechanism wrong, as I've noted, and this isn't a terribly sophisticated take on things. But, I just thought I'd go through the process to see what happened.

He's got a long way to go in the majors before he can sniff the career value of guys like Jack/Will Clark, and Dwight/Darrell Evans, and Dave Parker, and Fred Lynn.

2 1st basemen, and a cokehead? C'mon.

It's not the International Baseball Hall of Fame that's located in Cooperstown. For better or worse, the Hall is tied to accomplishments in MLB, so I don't believe you should use Ichiro's years in Japan to boost his candidacy by counting them on a par with his MLB tenure. However, I do think they justify giving full consideration to what might otherwise be a minimally elilgible 10-season MLB career and also making some age adjustment to Ichiro's MLB stats. That makes him a likely candidate for induction, IMHO, if he plays 10 years and doesn't tail off too badly.

Here's a question: regardless of all other considerations of his quality, if a player knocks out 3000 hits in fifteen seasons or fewer, would that make him a Hall of Famer? Say a DH or a clumsy first baseman who hits basically nothing but singles.


In MLB? Absolutely.

No way. What you are describing is a modern day Lloyd Waner or Doc Cramer, with much less defensive and baserunning value. From 1933-1943, Doc Cramer amassed nearly 2200 hits (adjusting to a 162 game schedule) with an OPS+ in the mid 80's. 4 more years of that certainly would not have made him a HOFer, and he was a centerfielder.