at 32, he has at least five more years at peak production

So your peak is from 22 to 37?

Anyone here have the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract Hall of Fame criteria (A, B, C, D) handy? Were Jeter to retire today, under which of those (if any) would he qualify?

Stolen from </blockquote>Baseball Reference

Black Ink: Batting - 6 (322) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 95 (231) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 45.9 (101) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 161.5 (62) (Likely HOFer > 100)

Criteria not needed. He's going to be in, and he deserves it.

So your peak is from 22 to 37?

It is if you're Derek Jeter!!!!!11111oneoneoneeleventyone!

Really, is there any doubt? For over the last decade the only time he didn't have a good season at the plate is when he had a great season at the plate. He's a Yankee, he's got rings, he's personable, he's dated Jessica Alba. If he had more range, the folks on the Rapture Ready board would have flipped out a ling time ago.

One of you people with nothing better to do should dig up the worst player who has more XX and more YY than several HOF SS, and ask Pepe if he belongs in the HOF.

"my dad can lick your little brother"

he has a higher batting average than Harmon Killebrew, more home runs than Pee Wee Reese and has slept with Mariah Carey more times than Arky Vaughn did

Jeter's a HOFer--you don't have to resort to stupid arguments

So your peak is from 22 to 37?

It is if you're Derek Jeter!!!!!11111oneoneoneeleventyone!

Really, is there any doubt? For all the heat he takes here about what he isn't, he's better than any shortstop my favorite team has ever had.

Criteria not needed. He's going to be in, and he deserves it.

I agree, which makes the shitty arguments in Pepe's article make him look that much dumber.

Sheesh. Sorry.

He is no Jose Reyes.

Can't we let people finish theor careers before we puit them into the Hall. Can't we just call them great players instead of "Future Hall Of Famers"?

a higher batting average than Luke Appling, Cronin, Robin Yount, Ripken, and Pee Wee Reese.


This part I think at least stands up. I don't know about the rest, but Yount and Ripken were considered very good hitters partly because of there BA.

Of course, playing off of each hitters strength, rather than weakness would make a stronger case.

I think Jete gets in because of the hype at this point, but he needs a couple of more "peak production" years to deserve it.

I love this game. One of you people with nothing better to do should dig up the worst player who has more XX and more YY than several HOF SS, and ask Pepe if he belongs in the HOF.

Neifi Perez has more HRs than Pee Wee Reese, Dave Bancroft, Joe Sewell, Joe Tinker, Bobby Wallace, Ozzie Smith and Phil Rizzuto.

Jeter's offense is about 400 RCAA at SS. That's a no brainer HOF. How many SS's did that for their careers?

Jeter has had more homers caught by Jeff Maier than ANYONE in the Hall of Fame.

Oops. Not Reese, just the other guys.

I guess Neifi will have to wait for the Veterans' Presence Committee.

Neifi Perez has more HRs than Pee Wee Reese, Dave Bancroft, Joe Sewell, Joe Tinker, Bobby Wallace, Ozzie Smith and Phil Rizzuto.

He does? First ballot, here he comes!

Isn't it a given that anyone who played 10 years on the Yankees or Red Sox belongs in the hall of fame?
Alan Trammell on the other hand played in Detroit, so he can't be in the hall.

I think Jete gets in because of the hype at this point, but he needs a couple of more "peak production" years to deserve it.

That's absurd. At this point there have been exactly three shortstops with better career offensive numbers than Jeter: Wagner, ARod, and Vaughn. Counting stats aren't nearly as important as the number of 130+ game seasons where your performance is at a high level. Jeter has 10 of these already, he'll have 11 by the end of 2006, and he's still all of 32 and shows no signs of tailing off at the plate. If ARod stays at third, and barring injury, Jeter is almost certainly going to wind up behind only Wagner on the all-time list of shortstops, his range factor notwithstanding. That inability to get a good jump on balls to his left, in fact, is just about his only weakness as a ballplayer.

hat inability to get a good jump on balls to his left, in fact, is just about his only weakness as a ballplayer.

his plaque will say "past a diving Jeter!"

Isn't it a given that anyone who played 10 years on the Yankees or Red Sox belongs in the hall of fame?

Alan Trammell on the other hand played in Detroit, so he can't be in the hall.

99% of the anti-Jeter "case" can be summarized by this comment. Reminds me of the French in the obvious projection of their inferiority complexes.

Jeter has a career not all that different than Larkin, minus the defense. I think they end up with similiar numbers.

Reggie Sanders has more homers than Ty Cobb

Barry Larkin was awesome. He should be in the hall.

Jeter has a career not all that different than Larkin, minus the defense. I think they end up with similiar numbers.

Jeter suits up more and it isn't even close.

Jeter's career is the one Larkin would have had if he could have stayed healthy, which he couldn't.

Andy,
I honestly believe Jeter is a hall of famer. However, I did not believe that 5 years ago when people started proclaiming him a future hall of famer. There are plenty of things I don't like about Jeter (like his defense). But the thing that bugs me most is the fact that even a player as good as him is over rated because he plays for either the Red Sox or Yankees.

Jeter has a career not all that different than Larkin, minus the defense. I think they end up with similiar numbers.

This is deeply flawed. Through 11 years (not including this year), Jeter has 6167 ABs - that's 560 a year, and 1159 Runs Scored (to pick a semi-random PT stat). Through 19 years, Larkin had 7137 ABs - 375 a year, and 1329 Runs Scored. I'm not saying that a naked stat like Runs Scored is the be-all end-all, but it's a measure of effective playing time, as is ABs. Larkin missed a LOT of time through injury, and while his rate stats might look like Jeter's, his teams were forced to play replacement-level (or below) SSs for a significant part of his 19 seasons. Jeter has been remarkably durable.

Jeter suits up more and it isn't even close.

Jeter at age 32 has had nine 140+ game seasons, seven of which were actually 150+. When Larkin retired at 40, his corresponding numbers were six and three. Larkin is still a HOFer in my book (and so is Trammell), but they're not on Jeter's level of consistent offensive excellence and durability.

Jeter is the awesomeness. If I was starting a team, he would be my first non pitcher pick. Fist pump!

This is deeply flawed. Through 11 years (not including this year), Jeter has 6167 ABs - that's 560 a year, and 1159 Runs Scored (to pick a semi-random PT stat). Through 19 years, Larkin had 7137 ABs - 375 a year, and 1329 Runs Scored. I'm not saying that a naked stat like Runs Scored is the be-all end-all, but it's a measure of effective playing time, as is ABs. Larkin missed a LOT of time through injury, and while his rate stats might look like Jeter's, his teams were forced to play replacement-level (or below) SSs for a significant part of his 19 seasons. Jeter has been remarkably durable.

I agree about playing time, I suppose I should have stated that their rate numbers are similiar, reminding me of the same type of hitter.

Andy,
I honestly believe Jeter is a hall of famer. However, I did not believe that 5 years ago when people started proclaiming him a future hall of famer. There are plenty of things I don't like about Jeter (like his defense). But the thing that bugs me most is the fact that even a player as good as him is over rated because he plays for either the Red Sox or Yankees.

I agree that the national announcers tend to overlook Jeter's one big flaw, and that they often tend to act like schoolgirls in describing him.

But why do they do this? Because as ballplayers themselves, they appreciate things like durability, the ability to get on base, baserunning skills (look at his SB percentage), and the way he approaches the game---not with his mouth, but with his hustle, and by his accomplishments.

And I don't think that it's the NY or Boston factor per se that accounts for the gushing. It think it's a combination of the added exposure you get when you have a long career with a team that gets deep in the playoffs nearly every year, and the factors I mention in the above paragraph.

The bottom line is that "past the diving Jeter" aside, his offensive skill set is A-level on all counts, including power if you add in the position factor. And aside from his range factor to his left, his defense isn't all that bad, either. The fact that he wears pinstripes is about 95% irrelevant to all this. Did Ozzie Smith play in New York, and do you really think that Ozzie Smith (career OPS+ of 87) provided more value to his team than Jeter has?

(perish the thought; at 32, he has at least five more years at peak production),

fwiw - Jeter's top 2 BBREF comps (through age 31) were Trammel and Alomar, both had just 2 years of "peak" production left...

#3 is Arky Vaughn- no peak production years left- but that could be due to WWII
#4 is Sandberg (2 left- really 1...)- but that could be ex-wife influenced
#5 is Joe Torre (WTF) he had zero years of peak production left
#6 is Frisch, # 7 is Doerr, #8 is TRavis Jackson; #9 is Vern Stephens;
no years of peak prodution left

wow as a Yankee hater that was fun- but #10- Joe Cronin DID have 5 years of peak production left...

You know, a Robbie Alomar style cliff dive is just as likely (if not more so) than 5 more years of peak production...

if there's a god...

Did Ozzie Smith play in New York, and do you really think that Ozzie Smith (career OPS+ of 87) provided more value to his team than Jeter has?

For what it's worth, Smith has nearly double the WARP1 of Jeter.

For what it's worth, Smith has nearly double the WARP1 of Jeter.

that's because BPro's fielding metrics REALLY savage Jeter

I hate Jeter, but I find it hard to believe he costs the Yankees that many runs a year with his glove -135 runs worse than average, they give Ozzie plus 257 runs above average

Jeter would need a 392 run advantage - he currently has a 298 run advantage- to over come Ozzie...

No ####, Phil. No ####.

that's because BPro's fielding metrics REALLY savage Jeter

I hate Jeter, but I find it hard to believe he costs the Yankees that many runs a year with his glove -135 runs worse than average, they give Ozzie plus 257 runs above average

Jeter would need a 392 run advantage - he currently has a 298 run advantage- to over come Ozzie...

What you meant to say was "thats because Jeter really sucks at defense and my love of OPS prevents me from taking into account that it undervalues OBP which makes Ozzies horrible offense look worse than it was"

We all know that the writers will see his rings, especially now playing next to "no rings" A-Rod, and vote him in around 90% on the first ballot. Whether or not he deserves it is a different story. Curiously, would Barry Larkin have been a Hall of Famer ten years ago, before shortstops like Jeter, A-Rod, Tejada, and Garciaparra started pounding the ball?

Isn't it a given that anyone who played 10 years on the Yankees or Red Sox belongs in the hall of fame?
Alan Trammell on the other hand played in Detroit, so he can't be in the hall.

Isn't it time to retire this inaccurate meme? The last nine players who spent a fair number of prime years in Boston or New York to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the writers were Wade Boggs (2005), Dave Winfield (2001), Carlton Fisk (2000), Reggie Jackson (1993), Tom Seaver (1992), Carl Yastrzemski (1989), Willie Mays (1979), and Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford (1974). It's hard to argue that any of the nine got unfair "buzz."

That covers 30-plus years. I'm assuming that Eckersley and Niekro did not get in as a Red Sox and a Yankee. The two debatable 40/60-type players were Gary Carter (2003) whose Cooperstown cap shows an Expos insignia, and Catfish Hunter (1987), whose Cooperstown cap is blank.

The HOF ballot experiences of players like Gossage, Mattingly, Rice, Guidry, Dwight Evans, Tommy John, Keith Hernandez, Munson, Nettles, Tiant-- some of whom have an argument-- doesn't indicate any "NY/Boston bump."

The last Boston pitcher not named "Roger" or "Pedro" to win a Cy Young Award was Jim Lonborg. The Yankees have one Cy Young winner since Ron Guidry-- and it's Clemens.

The Yankees have had three AL MVPs in the last 40 years. The Red Sox have had five, none in a decade.

"thats because Jeter really sucks at defense and my love of OPS prevents me from taking into account that it undervalues OBP which makes Ozzies horrible offense look worse than it was"

????

Jeter's OPS is OBP heavy too (not as much as Ozzie's of course)
and Ozzie's offense- for a SS back then wasn't "horrible" by any means
if you want an inexplicably well regarded SS from Smith's era with legitimately horrible offense look at Larry Bowa, or Ozzie Guillen or Alfredo Griffin or ...

Isn't it a given that anyone who played 10 years on the Yankees or Red Sox belongs in the hall of fame?
Alan Trammell on the other hand played in Detroit, so he can't be in the hall.

Isn't it time to retire this inaccurate meme? The last nine players who spent a fair number of prime years in Boston or New York to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the writers were Wade Boggs (2005), Dave Winfield (2001), Carlton Fisk (2000), Reggie Jackson (1993), Tom Seaver (1992), Carl Yastrzemski (1989), Willie Mays (1979), and Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford (1974). It's hard to argue that any of the nine got unfair "buzz."

That covers 30-plus years. I'm assuming that Eckersley and Niekro did not get in as a Red Sox and a Yankee. The two debatable 40/60-type players were Gary Carter (2003) whose Cooperstown cap shows an Expos insignia, and Catfish Hunter (1987), whose Cooperstown cap is blank.

The HOF ballot experiences of players like Gossage, Mattingly, Rice, Guidry, Dwight Evans, Tommy John, Keith Hernandez, Munson, Nettles, Tiant-- some of whom have an argument-- doesn't indicate any "NY/Boston bump."

The last Boston pitcher not named "Roger" or "Pedro" to win a Cy Young Award was Jim Lonborg. The Yankees have one Cy Young winner since Ron Guidry-- and it's Clemens.

The Yankees have had three AL MVPs in the last 40 years. The Red Sox have had five, none in a decade.

Isn't it a given that anyone who played 10 years on the Yankees or Red Sox belongs in the hall of fame?
Alan Trammell on the other hand played in Detroit, so he can't be in the hall.

Isn't it time to retire this inaccurate meme? The last nine players who spent a fair number of prime years in Boston or New York to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the writers were Wade Boggs (2005), Dave Winfield (2001), Carlton Fisk (2000), Reggie Jackson (1993), Tom Seaver (1992), Carl Yastrzemski (1989), Willie Mays (1979), and Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford (1974). It's hard to argue that any of the nine got unfair "buzz."

That covers 30-plus years. I'm assuming that Eckersley and Niekro did not get in as a Red Sox and a Yankee. The two debatable 40/60-type players were Gary Carter (2003) whose Cooperstown cap shows an Expos insignia, and Catfish Hunter (1987), whose Cooperstown cap is blank.

The HOF ballot experiences of players like Gossage, Mattingly, Rice, Guidry, Dwight Evans, Tommy John, Keith Hernandez, Munson, Nettles, Tiant-- some of whom have an argument-- doesn't indicate any "NY/Boston bump."

The last Boston pitcher not named "Roger" or "Pedro" to win a Cy Young Award was Jim Lonborg. The Yankees have one Cy Young winner since Ron Guidry-- and it's Clemens.

The Yankees have had three AL MVPs in the last 40 years. The Red Sox have had five, none in a decade.

look at Larry Bowa, or Ozzie Guillen or Alfredo Griffin


and turn to stone

I have no idea why that happened... my server must operate out of either Boston or New York.

I hate Jeter, but I find it hard to believe he costs the Yankees that many runs a year with his glove -135 runs worse than average, they give Ozzie plus 257 runs above average

If it's plausible that the best fielding SS in history was 14 runs (20 plays) above average -- which I think it is -- why isn't it believable that one of the worst could be 13 runs (19 plays) below average? I don't know if Jeter is really that bad, but it's certainly possible.

I'm only going to respond once - the continuing of that meme is driven, in large part, to the "discussion" of fringe HoF candidates, like Mattingly. I don't think anyone is foolish enough to try to defend "election to the Hall is hopelessly big media-market biased", but I do think it's accurate to say "discussion of HoF merits is done disproportionately for players who toiled mostly in large markets".

Is this because there are more columnists in NYC than in KC, and there's more competition to fill column inches with baseball discussion? That's what I'd point to.

JP:

Ozzie was a pretty darn effective offensive player during most of the 80's thanks to walks and stolen bases.

And the shorstops you list as being highly regarded for "inexplicable" reasons were all pretty sharp players. And to quote a pretty famous guy around here, you cannot underestimate having smart players in the middle of the diamond.

Which is one of the things that makes Jeter so valuable. Here the intangible may not be measureable but it surely exists. Derek Jeter is one d*mn smart ballplayer. Toss in the hustle, the durability, and the determination to succeed and if the guy was hitting .240 he could play for me all day long. That he hits .300 makes him inner-circle. And folks who b*tch about that fact are just jealous.

And if anyone tabs me as a "Yankee lover" they don't have a clue as to what the h*ll they are writing about and should just hush.

Of course he's HOF, but what if...

....if he had a Dale Murphy-like implosion, hit .220 for a couple of years and retired glumly in 09? WOuld he still be then?

JP:

Ozzie was a pretty darn effective offensive player during most of the 80's thanks to walks and stolen bases.

I never said he wasn't.

And the shorstops you list as being highly regarded for "inexplicable" reasons were all pretty sharp players.

Griffin wasn't, Ozzie was, Bowa was such a rockhead as a manager that I refuse to contemplate that he wasn't a rockhead as a player (I hated him when he played too- never let it be said that I don't admit to my biases)

....if he had a Dale Murphy-like implosion, hit .220 for a couple of years and retired glumly in 09? WOuld he still be then?

that was the purpose of my BBREF comp exercise above... One can only hope :-)

By the way, I enjoyed "retired glumly".

I could just see the Droopy Dog-like press conference:

*in Jon Stewart's Joe Lieberman/Droopy Dog impression*

"I'm so sorry, guys. Woe is me."

JP:

Alfredo Griffen was playing regularly at 21 and spent more then 15 years in the majors. He never walked and he sometimes ran the bases like a scared rabbit but the guy always kept the opposition on its toes.

TraderDave:

Yes. If Derek retired today he would be a Hall of Famer. He is arguably the best player of a team that has been in contention for over a decade and won four World Championships. I can think of about fifty current Hall of Famers who don't have that resume.

Again, this is a quick summary so if someone wants to be dumb and accuse me of simply "Counting the Rings" have at it. I just don't see how the best everyday player on a great team can't be a Hall of Famer when that mantle has lasted this long. It's foolish to suggest otherwise.....

He is arguably the best player of a team that has been in contention for over a decade and won four World Championships.

Harvey's, I think Jeter made serious contributions to that dynasty, but I believe that more valuable to those teams than him:

Mariano Rivera

maybe Jorge Posada
maybe Bernie Williams
maybe Paul O'Neill

Of those guys, I think Posada, Williams, and O'Neill deserve Hall of Merit consideration, but I personally don't feel that any of them really make HoF easily.

Anyone here have the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract Hall of Fame criteria (A, B, C, D) handy? Were Jeter to retire today, under which of those (if any) would he qualify?

Definition D: "A player who rises well above the level of the average player, and who would be capable of contributing to a pennant-winning team."

Check

Definition C: "A player who is consistently among the best at his position."

Check

Definition B: "A player who is one of the greatest players ever at the position that he plays, and (ordinarily) the dominant player of his time at his position."

This is sticky, but I think Jeter meets this definition. The 'ordinarily' is there as a safety valve for situations where you have a huge glut, like Willie, Mickey and the Duke; Speaker and Cobb; Foxx and Gehrig . . . and ARod, Jeter, Nomar (if not injured) and Tejada. In a typical era, Jeter would be the dominant SS in the game. I also think he's one of the 10-15 greatest ever at the position.

Definition A: "A player who could reasonably be argued to be the greatest ever at the position he plays."

He's not Honus. #2 would be (IMO) Arky Vaughan or Cal Ripken, depending on whether you prefer peak or career. Jeter has been great - but he hasn't been Arky Vaughan at his peak, who was just incredible.

Even if you say Jeter is a league average fielder, he isn't the hitter Vaughan was. Vaughan played from 20-31, and put up a .324 EQA and 136 OPS+. Jeter has played from 21-32 and is at .301 and 121. And Vaughan was an above average fielder too.

From 1934-36, Vaugan put up EQAs of .328, .372, .330, and OPS+ of 149, 190, 148. He also had 37 FRAA over those 3 years.

Jeter from 1998-2000 was .295, .324, .301; Jeter has OPS+ of 126, 161, 123. We'll leave the fielding out since we know what the numbers say.

Jeter to me is a clear Definition B Hall of Famer. To me that means unless you want a Hall of Fame that has about 30 players in it Jeter belongs, even if you are a 'small hall' guy. You'd have to be a 'tiny hall' guy (which to me would be a 'pointless hall' guy) to have Jeter out, looking at it reasonably.

BTW, I'm not saying Jeter is one of the 30-40 best players ever with that last paragraph in post 55.

I'm saying once you open it past 30 (the top 2 or 3 at each position, plus 8-12 pitchers) you have to open it up to about 100-120, because of the way the far right of the bell curve works. Jeter's in that group from 31-120 for sure.

Harvey's, I think Jeter made serious contributions to that dynasty, but I believe that more valuable to those teams than him:

Mariano Rivera

maybe Jorge Posada
maybe Bernie Williams
maybe Paul O'Neill


Rivera??? So nine innings of sterling performance EVERY day is worth less than 1 inning a couple days a a week?

The diving into the stands has to count towards the HOF selection right? Oh and that back-handed shovel pass to throw out Jeremy Giambi at the plate in the ALCS.

Still, I think he's a lock and I'm no Jeter fan.

I think we can all agree on this:

Based on how the HoF works now, Jeter is first ballot.
Based on how the HoF should work, Jeter should be in, but not inner circle.

JP:

Alfredo Griffen was playing regularly at 21 and spent more then 15 years in the majors. He never walked and he sometimes ran the bases like a scared rabbit but the guy always kept the opposition on its toes.

He was a fun player to watch, but to say he was a "pretty sharp" ballpalyer is really pushing it- unless you're using a different definition that I am.

And Vaughan was an above average fielder too.

It's not that I disagree with this (because I don't know), but how do you state this so authoritatively, Joe? From press reports and Gold Gloves, wouldn't people of 70 years from now think the same of St. Derek?

TVerik:

Derek has been there from the day the Yankees got scary again and except for a time when the Jays hired an assassin has played regularly at a high level. None of the others you list can compare to that contribution.

JP:

For every "what a friggin' idiot" play Alfredo made 3 that had you shaking your head in admiration. AG was always pushing the envelope. I think it's that impatience in wanting to make things happen that worked against him at the plate and on the bases at times.

From press reports and Gold Gloves, wouldn't people of 70 years from now think the same of St. Derek?

unfortunately yes they will most likely

Barry Larkin - 2180 games played, .290 EqA, very good fielder
Derek Jeter - just under 1700 games played, .290 EqA, below avg fielder.
Cal Ripken - 3001 games played, .273 EqA, very good fielder

Yes, if Jeter retired today, he would deserve to go into the HoF. His prime performance IS among the best ever. But AFTER Barry Larkin!!!! How people can think things like "Jeter suits up more and it isn't even close." or "Jeter's career is the one Larkin would have had if he could have stayed healthy" (gee, again, Barry has 480 more games played to date). Yes, if Jeter stays healthy and productive, he COULD be the consensus #2 all-time shortstop (since there really IS no consensus #2). And of course, it's only because A-Rod got inexplicably moved to third base, which is really the sorriest thing about Rodriguez going to the Yankees; it severly damaged the possibility that we could watch what might have been the greatest career shortstop ever.

If staying in the lineup is all that impt, Cal is so obviously ahead of Jeter right now it's silly.

The Jeter bashers are foolish to not see how excellent he has been, but his proponents can be equally as silly. I haven't seen such passion and different-colored glasses on a player since Pete Rose.

Rivera??? So nine innings of sterling performance EVERY day is worth less than 1 inning a couple days a a week?

yup.

There's an awful lot of people taking my name in vain today. Repent, heathens.

Alfredo Griffin has a reputation of being a very smart guy; there's a passage in Men at Work where he's sitting on Chavez Ravine's bench, watching the other team's shortstop, and accurately calling all the pitches.

If ARod stays at third, and barring injury, Jeter is almost certainly going to wind up behind only Wagner on the all-time list of shortstops, his range factor notwithstanding.

I think Jeter has a ways to go to top Vaughan and Ripken, Vaughan in particular. As good a hitter as Jeter's been, Vaughan was even better, and I don't think his defense was any worse. The Jeter will have a career-length claim over Vaughan, however.

Let's see where his decline phase leaves him.

Heh, Pepe is the same guy whose "argument" for Rizzuto was taken apart by James.

Rizzuto hit for a higher lifetime average [than Pee Wee Reese], .273 to .269... To me, Reese and Rizzuto are as close as two players can be, their careers an almost exact parallel of each other... In all measurable departments, there is little to choose between the two, except that Reese had better power statistics which can be attributed to the fact he played in a much smaller ballpark.

So, yes, Phil Pepe, not exactly a titan of baseball analysis. On the other hand, Jeter's a HOFer; don't be silly.

Of those guys, I think Posada, Williams, and O'Neill deserve Hall of Merit consideration, but I personally don't feel that any of them really make HoF easily.

I was looking over Bernie the other day . . . man, his case looks better and better every-time I look.

Take the CF list James has in the NHBA:

He's obviously not top 7 (Mays, Cobb, Mantle, Speaker, DiMaggio, Snider, Griffey).

But after that?

*Hall of Famer; +Hall of Merit (through 1980).

8. Kirby Puckett*
9. Billy Hamilton*+ (should be #8, easily, James timelines way too hard)
10. Jimmy Wynn
11. Larry Doby*+
12. Dale Murphy
13. Wally Berger
14. Earl Averill*+
15. Edd Roush*
16. Richie Ashburn*+
17. Fred Lynn
18. Vada Pinson
19. Hack Wilson*
20. Hugh Duffy*
21. Cesar Cedeno
22. Amos Otis
23. Max Carey*+ (one of our worst selections)
24. Dom DiMaggio
25. Brett Butler

James listed Andre Dawson and Reggie Smith as RF, they should be listed as CF, IMO (that's where their peak years were), or they'd be on the list too. I'd guess Smith would be between Cedeno and Otis, Dawson would probably be right above Smith.

See what I'm getting at? We know Bernie was a better player that Brett Butler or Amos Otis or Cesar Cedeno.

Personally, I'd put Bernie in the top 15, I think he was better than Ashburn.

According the definitions (post 55), he's clearly D, and a strong C.

As for B, it's borderline - does one of the greatest ever mean one of the 15-20 greatest or one of the 5-8 greatest? Was Bernie the best CF of his time? No Griffey was, but he's an all-time great. After that? It's Bernie or Edmonds I'd say, maybe I'm forgetting someone.

I tend to draw my personal line somewhere above "C" (a player who is consistently among the best at his position) and below "B" - meaning a player who is one of the 15-20 greatest players ever at the position that he plays, but he doesn't have to be the dominant player of his time. I think Bernie fits there.

As a hitter he's comparable to Dave Parker, Dwight Evans, Tony Perez and Bobby Bonilla . . . but he played CF, which should get him a big bump - don't know if it will.

My gut tells me he isn't going to get in if guys like Dale Murphy with two MVPs are having trouble.

more RBIs than Luis Aparicio, Boudreau and Davey Bancroft,

In my World Series career, I've hit as many home runs as Cy Young and I've lost fewer games. Yes, that Cy Young.

After that? It's Bernie or Edmonds I'd say, maybe I'm forgetting someone.

Kenny Lofton has semi-quietly had a heck of a career.

To invoke a another name that draws either love or hatred, where would Jeter fit on Bill Simmons' HOF pyramid? Five floors, I'm not sure how he ordered them but let's call #1 the inner circle guys. At this point, I would say that Jeter would fit on #3, but has a shot at #2. He is going to compile some big arse counting stats.

Personal prediction: of the players that were part of the Yankee Championship run of 1996-2001 Clemens, Mariano, Mussina and Jeter are voted into the HoF (I know Boggs is already in).

Clemens is a no-brainer, as well as Mariano and Jeter (yes, I realize some people have issues about whether a reliever is worthy of being elected to the HoF, but to reasonably argue that Mariano WON'T get voted into the HoF is spurious IMO).

Mussina is the borderline case, but right now I'm guardedly optimistic of his getting elected (as to him getting to 300 wins, well, this season has certainly improved his chances, but it's going to come down to the proverbial wire).

I also think that Posada and Bernie will get voted in by the Veterans Committee (Posada just might get voted in directly, though I tend to think he won't).

Rivera??? So nine innings of sterling performance EVERY day is worth less than 1 inning a couple days a a week?

According to Michael Kay (on his radio show yesterday), Rivera is not only the greatest reliever ever, but now the greatest pitcher ever. Because 400 saves mean 400 wins.

Just for fun, Mariano's playoff stats:

72G, 111.7 IP, 8-1, 34 saves, 0.81 ERA, 0.75 whip.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/riverma01.shtml

Delta, Mussina arrived after the championship run, and suffered a few down years. I wouldn't classify his late-career as "disappointing", but it could have been better. I think he's still associated with the Orioles, where he never won one either.

One can make a case that Giambi has been about as much of a contributer as Mussina. They were signed in the same offseason.

My personal guess is that Mussina will just miss induction. But he can still change that.

Rivera is not only the greatest reliever ever, but now the greatest pitcher ever. Because 400 saves mean 400 wins.

reminds me of a thread a while back, someone argued that X was a good an RBI man (if not better) than Y, because Y had many more RBI opportunities.

Someone else argued that opportunity was irrelevant- ALL that mattered was that Y had more RBIs, the fact that X had more opps didn't matter, you couldn't asume that given more opps that X would do anything with them- you couldn't assume he'd convert any of them.

Rivera has 400 saves, how manty of those "wins" would the Yankees have failed to convert without Rivera? The casual fan will likely pull a # out of his A$$ and will unshakeably hold onto it.
They will asume that X number would have been lost- and some will assume 10-15 games a year.

My biggest issue with Jeter is the lack of slugging power. I keep on holding on to the belief that as he matures/declines, he'll make up for it by increasing his power numbers. So far nothing. But he's still the same type of hitter he's been, early inning bunt attempts and all.

Rivera is as close to an "ace reliever" and not a closer as one gets in the real world of baseball in the playoffs. I forget the stat, but I think some absurd number like 80% of the time his saves are of more than a single inning in that atmosphere.

We're talking about probably the best player ever to play his position (which, I understand, didn't really exist pre-Eckersley), and Jeter may be somewhere in the top ten on the SS list, with some good baseball left in both of them.

I said "valuable". Put a replacement-level SS in the field for those teams, and put a replacement-level closer on those teams. The effects can be argued, but it'll take some convincin' if you want to say that non-Jeter teams would outperform non-Rivera teams.

I think player y was Joe Carter, JPWF13. If we're thinking about the same thread.

My personal guess is that Mussina will just miss induction. But he can still change that.

He may need a 20 win season more than he needs a ring...
If he picked up both, he's 235-130 now (has anyone with a 100 win differential NOT made the HOF?)
his chances would probably go from "pretty low" to "pretty much a lock"

I keep on holding on to the belief that as he matures/declines, he'll make up for it by increasing his power numbers. So far nothing.

To be fair, though, Jeter's career progression hasn't really followed any age-related decline "rules" as of yet. It's certainly not too late for him to compensate for the sliding of other skills by slugging a bit more.

(has anyone with a 100 win differential NOT made the HOF?)
I don't think so, unless it was when the mound was 50 ft from home plate.

pitchers with >100 wins minus losses, 1900 thru 1999 (hand calculated)

C Mathewson 185
G Alexander. 165
L Grove....... 159
W Johnson... 137
W Ford........ 130
W Spahn..... 118
J Palmer...... 116
Clemens...... 111
T F Brown.... 110
T Seaver..... 106
B Feller....... 104
J Marichal.... 101

To invoke a another name that draws either love or hatred, where would Jeter fit on Bill Simmons' HOF pyramid? Five floors, I'm not sure how he ordered them but let's call #1 the inner circle guys. At this point, I would say that Jeter would fit on #3, but has a shot at #2. He is going to compile some big arse counting stats.



You're going to pay for my therapy after reminding me of the dumbest column ever written:


Level 1: Ground floor of The Pyramid ... designated for marginal guys who were considered "Borderline Hall of Famers" ... [Gary] Carter, Sutton, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Gossage, Rice, Morris, Catfish Hunter, Wade Boggs, Tony Perez, Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers, Tom Glavine (if he keeps going strong). You get the idea.

Level 2: [R]eserved for guys who were definitely Hall of Famers, but didn't quite possess a Level 3 résumé ... Robin Yount, Carlton Fisk, Dave Winfield, Willie Stargell, Rod Carew, Jim Palmer, Ryne Sandberg, Kirby Puckett, Carl Yastrzemski, Paul Molitor

Level 3: Reserved for the "No-Doubt-About-It" Hall of Famers ... there's a distinct, crucial difference between Level 3 and Level 4 (explanation coming) ... Joe Morgan, Ozzie Smith (more on him later), George Brett, Roberto Clemente, Brooks Robinson, Rickey Henderson, Tony Gwynn, Robbie Alomar, Eddie Murray, Greg Maddux (assuming he keeps cruising along), Randy Johnson (ditto), Dennis Eckersley (a unique case, but definitely)

Level 4: These are basically "L3" guys, only there's something just inherently "greater" about them ... Reggie Jackson, Steve Carlton, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Cal Ripken Jr., Nolan Ryan (a great argument here -- some don't even consider him a Hall of Famer), Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds (maybe even a little low for him, as scary as that sounds), Roger Clemens (it hurts, but it's true)

Level 5: Take a deep breath. Level 5 is the top of the pyramid, literally and figuratively. You can rattle the L5 guys off the top of your head: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Joe DiMaggio, Grover Alexander, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson and Honus Wagner.

Sixteen in all. That's it. That's Level 5. The best of the best. The Pantheon.

I don't mean this as a knock on TVerik, he's not the first one that's said it . . . but it cracks me up that Mussina gets blame for 'never having won one'.

He's one pitcher. How exactly was it his fault the Orioles didn't win in 1997. You know the year that he was 15-8 with a 137 OPS+. The year he made 4 postseason starts and gave up 4 ER in 29 IP. With 41 strikeouts and 7 BB. Was it his fault his team couldn't get him a run in game 6, where he threw 1-hit, shutout ball for 8 innings with 10 K and 2 BB?

I know he had the one bad start in Game 1 of the 2001 series, but they were 3-hit by Schilling, so I doubt a good start from him would have mattered. He did pitch a gem in Game 5 that year. He won his start in the 2003 WS, giving up 1 run in 7 IP.

It's not Mussina's fault his teams haven't won the big one. Not by a long-shot.

Make that a 137 ERA+ for Mussina in 1997, whoops!

"My biggest issue with Jeter is the lack of slugging power."

Since when do shortstops have to be power hitters to get into the Hall of Fame.

Ripken always had to deal with the same issues. Because he was a good hitter, he got compared to other power hitters instead of other shortstops.

I think player y was Joe Carter, JPWF13. If we're thinking about the same thread.

you know you're right, there was a thread like that on Joe Carter- as well as one last year on Andruw Jones...

(has anyone with a 100 win differential NOT made the HOF?)

Nobody since the 1800s.

Sixteen in all. That's it. That's Level 5. The best of the best. The Pantheon.

Far be it for me to dispute the "pantheon", but how do Pete Alexander and Mathewson rate above Clemens?

anyway- it's pretty clear what the crucial distinction between levels 2 and 4 are- it's the author's subjective mental impression connected with each name (an impression which may or may not be shared with anyone else)

Mussina vs. Marichal (someone that everyone agrees is a Hall of Famer) . . .

Mussina 235-130, 125 ERA+, 3141 IP
Marichal 243-142, 122 ERA+, 3506 IP

(The W-L, IP counts this year, ERA+ doesn't)

Best ERA+

Mussina 163, 159, 149, 142
Marichal 169, 166, 165, 144

Years over 119 ERA+ (since Marichal had a 119 year)

Mussina 9 (will be 10 after 2006)
Marichal 7

Pretty comparable, considering starting pitchers throw many fewer innings now than in Marichal's time, when they threw more innings than any since the 1920s. Marichal has him slightly on peak, but Mussina is right there in career and prime.

In a fair universe, the only way Mike Mussina isn't a Hall of Famer is if the standards have gone up dramatically. I don't see any reason why that should be the case.

I'm not saying he's not going to have trouble getting in, just that it's ridiculous that that's the case.

Not to mention that Marichal achieved that W-L record with insane run support, if I recall the RSI numbers correctly. I'm not sure what Mussina's RSI looks like. I'd imagine it's good, but I doubt it's anything like what Marichal had.

The 20-win thing cracks me up too. He won 18 games 5 times, and led the league once. The only reason he didn't win 20 2x was the 1994-95 strike, he would easily have won 20 both years.

6 times he was top 5 in his league in wins. I don't think winning 20 should mean a thing, but obviously it will.

I say this every time this topic comes up, but Bernie Williams will walk into the Hall easily. His post season record will be the most cited fact, but Joe's list upthread shows that you can make an argument for him as the 9th best centrefielder of all-time and he is easily in the top 18, which at this point in the Hall's history is about the cutoff point.

Mussina will make it too with one more good season. He might make it without.

Jeter and Rivera are locks.

He also finished in the top 6 in the Cy Young voting 8 times in a 10-year stretch, as high as 2nd in 1999. But I guess if you aren't the best pitcher in the league in any one season, that's not worth anything either.

n a fair universe, the only way Mike Mussina isn't a Hall of Famer is if the standards have gone up dramatically. I don't see any reason why that should be the case.

What "standards"? The standards as we see them. I mean it's pretty obvious to us that Mussina is a pretty good match for Marichal- but YOU KNOW the typical hall voter will say:

"Some numbnuts wrote that Mussina was as good as Marichal, that's just nuts, Marichal won 20 games or more 6 times, he had a career ERA nearly a full run lower than Mussina..."

Agreed JPWF13 . . . things like this were part of the inspiration for the Hall of Merit :-)

How people can think things like "Jeter suits up more and it isn't even close"...If staying in the lineup is all that impt, Cal is so obviously ahead of Jeter right now it's silly.

Staying in the lineup is extremely important. You don't lead your team to a pennant playing in 105 games with 417 PA. Does Jeter's career exceed Larkin's? I didn't say that. I don't know where Cal Ripken entered the picture.

TVErik,

I purposefully referred to the 1996-2001 run, and Mussina was part of the 2001 Yankees (yes, I realize that this buys into the whole Buster Olney argument that the Yankee run ended in 2001 - not 2000 - , but I agree with that - really, Mariano pivots correctly on the throw to 2B in the 9th inning of Game 7 of the 2001 WS and there'd be no discussion of this).

BTW - Mussina was signed in the 2000-2001 off-season (the off-season in which the top free agents were A-ROD, Manny Ramirez, Mike Hampton and Mike Mussina).

Giambi was signed in the 2001-2002 off-season (when Giambi, together with Barry Bonds, were the top free agents).

Joe, I was probably imprecise in my terms. I wasn't trying to say that if Mussina reaches 20 wins (and 19 don't count) or his teams win a championship that this makes him a better player, but I'll continue to think that HoF voters in the real world do consider these things, good or bad.

Jeter has a lack of slugging? .461 career SLG, .147 ISO.

Trammell: .415, .130
Biggio: .437, .152
Ripken: .447, .171
Sandberg: .452, .167
Larkin: .444, .149
Alomar: .426, .150

Jeter only has a lack of slugging when compared to ARod, Tejeda, or a few other guys.