First Santana, and now Zito is having trouble again. Is the NL just that much better than the AL?!?!?

If I had to pay that much income tax, I'd have a crappy Spring too.

I'm just encouraged that the offense managed to score 5.

Considering that this was his first outing of the spring, I don't think there's much reason to be concerned. He was still humping that fastball up there at 82-83. He still has his stuff. He'll be fine.

He said he felt good, and that was the important thing.

Russ Ortiz said that after every spanking he received in a Dbacks uniform.

From a poster over on DBBP who was at the A's-Giants game today, a report on Zito's mechanics.

I was going to make this post:

All he needs is a .780 DER and he'll be fine.

Then I saw that he had a .740 DER last year. Now I'm going with this:

I'd be intimidated by Greg Smith, too.

The pennant is ours!

Judging by the score, I'd say the teams tried to commemorate Zito's big 2002 season.

Kevin, thanks for the laugh.

Zito always has a comment to qualify his performance.

For what it's worth, I happened to see his first spring starts the last two years, and he was well out of sorts each time. I didn't take such specific notes on his mechanics, but he was clearly not using his normal windup and was mostly stretching out his arm by throwing all fastballs and an occasional changeup.

And, somewhere, Pedro Martinez sees that box score and smiles. It would've been too boring for the writers to have given Pedro the Cy Young award he deserved in 2002. Zicasso! was fresh. He was new. He had his own pink pillow on the road. Let's vote for him. Screw ERA differences, park effects and quality of defense behind a guy. He's new! He's fresh!

Even with Zicasso! pitching more innings, BP has Pedro saving more runs.

By "BP" do you mean "Clay Davenport's crappy stuff"? VORP had Pedro 4th.

And, somewhere, Pedro Martinez sees that box score and smiles. It would've been too boring for the writers to have given Pedro the Cy Young award he deserved in 2002. Zicasso! was fresh. He was new. He had his own pink pillow on the road. Let's vote for him. Screw ERA differences, park effects and quality of defense behind a guy. He's new! He's fresh!

Even with Zicasso! pitching more innings, BP has Pedro saving more runs.

As noted, you're simply wrong about saving more runs after adjusting for park.

In terms of defense, Zito was just so blessed to be a flyball pitcher with Jeremy Giambi and a 36 year old David Justice in LF, Terrence Long in CF, and Dye/Mabry in RF. Oakland and Boston allowed the same .284 BABIP in 2002, despite Oakland's par suppressing BABIP far more than Fenway (which is already accounted for by adjusting for park).

In terms of defense, Zito was just so blessed to be a flyball pitcher with Jeremy Giambi and a 36 year old David Justice in LF, Terrence Long in CF, and Dye/Mabry in RF. Oakland and Boston allowed the same .284 BABIP in 2002, despite Oakland's par suppressing BABIP far more than Fenway (which is already accounted for by adjusting for park).

Why would you anecdotally reference the A's lousy outfield defenders behnd poor Barry Zito and then numerically compare team level BABIPs?

Wouldn't it have been more straighforward to simply note that Zito's BABIP was .251 and Martinez's was .276?

Ah, more straightfoward, but decidedly less helpful.

Only if we're pretending extreme flyball pitchers don't have any control over that.

By "BP" do you mean "Clay Davenport's crappy stuff"? VORP had Pedro 4th.

Since when was EQA and EQR, considered as "crappy stuff"?

Since when do EqA and EqR have anything to do with pitchers?

well, it's just practice..let's wait and see if he can get a couple outs in a real game. They say 10% of fly balls are going over anyway. The rest, doubles, triples..you know, i think he CAN..mean at least 2 get caught in the air..over the season..the REAL problem is the screaming line drives in the stands..may want to make the fine print bigger..like NOT RESPONSIBLE

Since when do EqA and EqR have anything to do with pitchers?

Pitching Runs above average.

Back to Zito:

Zito took solace in his fastball, which he said he threw "downhill," and from his perception that most of Oakland's hits off him came on low pitches.
"I want to start missing below the glove this year," Zito said. "If I'm throwing balls, I want to be down."

IF??

Why would you anecdotally reference the A's lousy outfield defenders behnd poor Barry Zito and then numerically compare team level BABIPs?

Wouldn't it have been more straighforward to simply note that Zito's BABIP was .251 and Martinez's was .276?

Ah, more straightfoward, but decidedly less helpful.

I was trying to dispel the oft-repeated claim that Zito had great defense behind him in 2004.

And, no, simply listing the BABIP of Pedro and Zito would not be of much help at all in demonstrating who benefited more from the defense behind them. First, as I noted earlier, Oakland's park suppresses BABIP while Fenway does the opposite. That has nothing to do with quality of defense and is already accounted for when adjusting for park. The fact that Boston allowed the same BABIP as Oakland despite the difference in park factors is an indication that Boston had better defense (not proof, of course).

Second, Zito has shown a repeated a ability to suppress BABIP, partly because he's an extreme FB pitcher.

So, no, simply stating their BABIPs is not decidedly more helpful. The fact that Kevin is on your side virtually proves my case.

Pitching Runs above average.

Most people think average performance has value.

Most people think average performance has value.

Sure. There's also pitching runs above replacement. Zito and Pedro both were at 101.

The fact that Kevin is on your side virtually proves my case.

Well the fact that he's also correct that Lowe was better than Zito in 02 doesn't make this the most compelling thread to point that out.

I assume you'll change the metrics to suite your needs again, but in your last post you implied a fealty to runs above replacement instead of average.

Lowe's PRAR was 108, a handful of runs higher than both Zito and Martinez.

More to the point, your focus on the overall A's defensive ability doesn't address how they played behind Zito and yet you pointedly claimed the age of his OF defense as "evidence" that Zito was not given good defensive support in 2002.

Zito does have a history of below average BABIPs and as a result his DH for his career is quite low at -14.1 per 200 IP. In 2002 it was -23 in 228 IP. That suggests that his defense helped him by the tune of about 6 hits into outs above and beyond his own hit suppressing ability. It's not a huge difference, but it exists and is either a) worth mentioning because it's true or b) sholdn't be covered up with irrelevent anecdotes and insults.

Davenport's pitching replacement level is too low, yet he also gives entirely too much of the credit for run prevention to fielders. Good luck trying to wrap your brain around the ramifications of that.

Well the fact that he's also correct that Lowe was better than Zito in 02 doesn't make this the most compelling thread to point that out.

I assume you'll change the metrics to suite your needs again, but in your last post you implied a fealty to runs above replacement instead of average.

Lowe's PRAR was 108, a handful of runs higher than both Zito and Martinez.

You'd have somewhat of a point if I had ever said that Zito deserved the CYA or that he was better than Lowe. I said neither, of course, which leaves you with no point. In fact, I think Lowe deserved the CYA, and I've said so several times on Primer.

Good effort at "irrelevant anecdotes and insults," but you swung and missed.

Zito does have a history of below average BABIPs and as a result his DH for his career is quite low at -14.1 per 200 IP. In 2002 it was -23 in 228 IP. That suggests that his defense helped him by the tune of about 6 hits into outs above and beyond his own hit suppressing ability. It's not a huge difference, but it exists and is either a) worth mentioning because it's true or b) not trying to obfuscate with irrelevent anecdotes and insults.

Or maybe it's because Zito had the best infield flyball percentage of his career (17.8% compared to 14.5% for his career). Or, maybe it was just his FB% being higher than his career average. Or maybe the same skill that caused him to have better peripherals than his career average also increased his ability to suppress BABIP.

I'm not really sure which it is, and neither are you. But you're still being an ass, as usual, for no apparent reason.

Shouldn't this discussion really be about how this game proved that the As are on the right track this year and that Beane >>>> Colletti. I can't wait until the Bay Area Columnists(tm) acknowledge the obvious...

What on earth has this game got to do with Colletti?

What on earth has this game got to do with Colletti?

Everything has to do with Colletti.

It's almost been forgotten that the A's needlessly started Zito on the last day of the 2002 season. They apparently had a plan to line him up for game 1 against the yankees. Instead of getting the lefty in there twice against the lefty vulnerable Twins, he pitched once and the Twins beat the A's. (And the Angels beat the yankees, too). Oh, and starting that game helped Zicasso's case for the Cy Young award.

Oh, and starting that game helped Zicasso's case for the Cy Young award.

Pedro didn't make his last start of the season either that year, giving it to the late Josh Hancock. A win in that game gives him 21 wins and more than 200 IP which might have been enough to get his 4th Cy Young.

It's almost been forgotten that the A's needlessly started Zito on the last day of the 2002 season. They apparently had a plan to line him up for game 1 against the yankees. Instead of getting the lefty in there twice against the lefty vulnerable Twins, he pitched once and the Twins beat the A's.

That, or they were tied with the Yankees and wanted homefield advantage for a potential ALCS. Or they wanted to keep everyone on regular rest. Or they knew that Zito has a reverse platoon split (especially in 2002, when he allowed a .587 OPS against RHB compared to .791 against LHB).

Or that Tim Hudson was the A's best pitcher in 2002...

Everything has to do with Colletti.

Colletti, evil spawn of Sabean, from deaths door I stab at thee!