Postseason Prediction Thread

Get ‘em in before the games start!

cnnsi FanNation: Should a limit be placed on mound visits?

Interesting subject matter from Verducci:

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci takes issue with the frequency of mound conferences in the last of his Five Cuts from this morning, saying the number of pitcher-catcher powwows made yesterday’s Angels-Red Sox playoff game almost impossible to watch…

Do you think mound conferences make baseball “unwatchable” or are they a natural part of the game’s dramatic build-up? Should baseball look into limiting the number of mound visits at next month’s GM meetings? What would you suggest?

Woman reunited with dad’s ashes, readers give fan sacred Shea dirt

Shades of Hitchcock’s “The Jar”...Ashburn appears at Shea.

The Mets vowed not to budge - but three big-hearted Daily News readers were eager to help a woman barred from retrieving her father’s ashes at Shea Stadium.

The story of Lisa Hasson’s failed attempt to scoop dirt, and hopefully some of her father’s remains, from the ballpark’s pitching mound on Saturday touched one worker.  So the worker, who said he was dismantling the doomed stadium’s bleachers, contacted The News and offered to give Hasson a plastic bag of dirt he took from the mound.

“I took this for myself but it means more to her than it means to me,” said carpenter Chris McGonigle, 26, of Queens, as he handed over a jar full of dirt to Hasson and her 10-year-old son, Ben, last night.

...Hasson, 48, said she was following the final wishes of her father by sprinkling his ashes on the mound 12 years ago. She planned to save some of the soil and sprinkle the rest in the new Citi Field.

Mets spokesman Jay Horwitz said the organization could not let Hasson on the field for “safety reasons,” as workers were tearing out the bleachers and using large machinery.

“"I’m not trying to be hard about it,” Horwitz said. “But the stadium is closed.”

Thanks to The Eddie Kranepool Society.

Rosenthal: With Brewers out, CC sweepstakes can begin

No McLouth to the Yankees? Quick...somebody hook Francesspool up to the nearest Fountain le Acesulfame K, pronto!

PIRATES: LOOKING FOR BATS

The idea of the Pirates adding Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano makes sense; the team could attempt to reconstruct its entire middle infield this offseason, trading both shortstop Jack Wilson and second baseman Freddy Sanchez.

The Pirates, however, would not deal center fielder Nate McLouth for Cano, and they will not move McLouth at all unless it was for “a dramatic overpay,” according to a baseball executive with knowledge of the team’s plans.

Nyjer Morgan, who batted .347 in August and September, is a more likely trade candidate among the Pirates’ center-field types — Morgan is 28, and the team’s top outfield prospect, Andrew McCutchen, is nearly ready for the majors.

First base and left field are two other positions the Pirates could address. Third base is set long-term now that the team has signed No. 1 draft pick Pedro Alvarez, who eventually figures to pass Andy LaRoche and Neil Walker.

Salon: Kaufman: The real reason the Cubs lost: Scouting

If I’m not mistaken...didn’t The Piniella-Verducci Theory record for Scrotummy Records in the 70’s?

If scouting a team for three weeks instead of for a series or two had any real effect, wouldn’t every team do it all the time? What would it cost, a couple million bucks a year? Teams spend that on a utility infielder.

The Piniella-Verducci theory is one of those attempts to find a complicated explanation for something pretty simple. Those are thick on the ground after postseason sweeps. The simple thing is that for—in this case—three days, one team played well and the other didn’t. When it happens in June everybody just shrugs their shoulders. When it happens in October, we must find reasons.

But it’s the same game. The games mean more, but the game is the same.

Bronx Banter: Klapisch: Lasting Yankee Stadium Memory #29

Klap your hands say Wells!

There was no debate: a source is a source. I’m not sure I would’ve gone to jail to protect them, but luckily for me, I wasn’t facing a judge after the game, only Boomer, who was too impatient to wait at his locker. There he was, at the door outside the room, like some hired muscle working the rope at a night club.

“What’s it going to be, Bob,” he asked, closing in on my airspace.

“We’re done, Boomer,” I said, holding my ground.

“####### right we’re done,” Wells said, walking away. It was the last time we spoke, but that’s not to say the big lefty was finished with this story. In fact, he himself became the leak, repeating the incident to anyone and everyone – his teammates as well as the rest of
the League.

I watched with amusement about two weeks later, as Wells was standing with several Orioles during batting practice. He was roaring with laughter as he mimicked Steinbrenner’s most cutting remark – “no one wants your fat ass.”

Not true, of course. Wells’ career lasted another 10 years, but true to his word, he never spoke to me again. He had his principles, I suppose, I had mine. Someday in his retirement Wells might realize I was right. But I’m not holding my breath.

NCAA lawsuit over role of baseball “advisor”

Under N.C.A.A. rules, amateur players are permitted to select “advisers” who can guide them through the negotiation process, but the advisers may not communicate directly with professional teams.

Now, Oliver is suing the N.C.A.A. in an Ohio court, arguing that the restriction on agents is illegal. In August, a judge granted Oliver a temporary restraining order restoring his college eligibility, and a trial is scheduled for December.

Fighting punishment for a rule that is routinely broken. But how did this arise? Did anyone see the cold hand of a Boras around?

The violation probably never would have become public had Andy Oliver not angered the Barattas by replacing them with the prominent baseball agent Scott Boras this spring, a year before he would become eligible, as a junior, for the draft. The Barattas then mailed the Olivers a bill for their services, totaling more than $100,000.

The Segregated Cornfield

It’s the story of farmer Ray Kinsella (Kevin Costner), who heeds a voice in his head and converts a portion of his farm into a state-of-the-art baseball diamond. Shoeless Joe Jackson (Ray Liotta) and some of his long-since-passed buddies appear at the diamond to play again. Eventually with the help of revolutionary author Terence Mann (James Earl Jones), Kinsella manages to reconnect with his deceased father, also a baseball player, to “have a catch.”

The ghosts, if you will, reside in the cornfield behind the field.  Presumably in a segregated neighborhood.

It’s my all-time pet peeve. Why aren’t there any black players coming out of the cornfield?

While Shoeless Joe speaks of his after-life associations with the likes of Ty Cobb and Gil Hodges, he has no black friends. It seems fitting that a fantasy of this type would have leaped on the opportunity to bring Negro League stars Satchel Paige, Josh Gibson and “Cool Papa” Bell together with their Major League counterparts.

In the commentary on the FoD DVD, the director said basically that “If I could go back and change one thing in the movie, I’d put in Negro League players.”

Home runs and home truths in Trescothick’s benefit bash (AKA Could Cricketeers play Baseball well?)

Trescothick is the man responsible for the temporary transformation of Taunton County Ground into a ballpark. It is his benefit year, and, eschewing the more typical golf days and dinner evenings at the Rotary Club, he has decided to challenge the Great Britain baseball team to a game.

His squad, Banger’s All Stars, is composed entirely of professional cricketers. Geraint Jones is leading off the batting, and Charl Willoughby and Ashley Giles are sharing the pitching duties. Those three and Trescothick have 166 Test caps between them. The rest of the Banger’s line up has been drawn from the Somerset squad.

The Great Britain baseball team are a largely amateur bunch, part-timers with a point to prove. That said, they finished second at the 2007 European Championships, inspired to unprecedented success by their Minor League star Brant Ust.

It’s a pub-table conversation brought to life. An animated hypothetical. Would Trescothick’s hand-eye co-ordination make him a natural slugger? Could Giles’ ability to spin a cricket ball translate into a mean curve? Might Jones make a sharp shortstop? And would the superior athleticism and ball skills of the professionals outweigh the knowledge and understanding of the amateurs?

The answer was an emphatic ‘no’. This became sharply apparent when Giles took to the mound in the third inning and gave up 10 runs in 13 at-bats, a hammering easily equivalent to a bowler going for 36 in a single over. He was even on the receiving end of a grand-slam, Ian Young smashing a homer into the Old Pavilion with the bases loaded. It earned him some merciless ribbing from Jonny Gould, the Channel Five sports factotum doing sterling work on the tannoy.

Okay, now that that is settled, it’s time for Boxers vs. MMA, American Football vs. Canadian Football, Racquetball vs. Squash and Badminton vs. Tennis.

Former MU star pitcher Crow enjoys his break in the action

Jim Bowden said the Nationals went to $3.5 million as the deadline to sign their pick neared and, for the first time, heard that the price for Crow had dropped, now to $4.4 million. Bowden held firm. So did Crow.

“Something could have been worked out, they just were unwilling to move,” Smart said.

Now it’s all over. Crow is sitting in a bar in Columbia, watching baseball on television instead of playing it, not wanting to talk too much about why he’s not a National.

“I was seeing nothing was really going to happen,” he says as he cups a cold beer in his hand and looks off toward the pool tables. “It was a long process. Sure there’s stuff I’d do differently now. For some reason the Nationals thought what I was saying was not what I was saying. They thought they were going to break me. That I’d fold and do whatever they wanted me to do. I wish I’d made it more clear that this is what I wanted. They tried to bully me.”

Crashing worse than Bully: Scholarship Edition. 

De Luca: Cubs: Chokehold on droughts

Chokehold? More like Roadblock’s “Dead End Splash” as a finisher.

Could it be the 100-year weight pressing against the Cubs’ throats?

‘’There’s nothing you can do about 100 years,’’ Soriano said. ‘’We tried the best we can. I live in the present and in the future. Whatever happened in the past means nothing to me.

‘’I feel sorry for Cubs fans who have waited maybe 50 years, but I think about only the present and the future.’’

Said Ramirez: ‘’I don’t believe in that stuff. If you don’t play good ball, you’re not going to win. I don’t care how many years we haven’t won here in Chicago. Everything comes down to playing good on the field.’’

Let’s flip the card to 101 years. That’s what the Cubs will be facing in 2009. The drought still will be there on the North Side, even if many of the current Cubs won’t be.

Pedroia quick to take hit for his poor stats

I haven’t seen Pedroia this worked up...since Dancer’s Image got knocked down!

Dustin Pedroia, as he did in the ALDS last season, had started extraordinarily slowly. His MVP-caliber regular season has devolved into hard-hit outs and little else in the playoffs.

“It’s a tough loss, obviously,” Pedroia said. “It’s my fault, man. I’ve got to get on [expletive] base. That’s it. I’ve got to help our team win. I didn’t do that, haven’t done that all series. So I blame this one on me. Everyone else is battling, I am too, but no results.”

..."I’m frustrated,” Pedroia said. “I hit some balls hard, just didn’t get anything going. It’s a tough time to go 0 for 13, or whatever the heck I am. I’ll battle. Everyone knows that. It’s not a lack of effort. I’ve got to find a way to get on base for these guys.”

..."I don’t think Pedey’s gotten any hits and nobody seems to be panicking there,” Terry Francona said. “He hit a ball that was almost a home run [caught by Garret Anderson at the short wall in left in Game 2]. He hit a liner to second base. Just a small sample size. That’s just the way it goes.”

Backe among 8 held after scuffle with police at isle hotel

Galveston, oh Galveston, I still see your arm waves crashing

Houston Astros pitcher Brandon Backe was among 10 people arrested early Sunday morning during a riot at the San Luis Resort, police said.

...During the brawl, Backe was told by police to back away. He refused, and police attempted to handcuff him, the report said.

Backe struggled with officers. One officer stated in the report that he hit Backe twice in the face before handcuffing him. The officer also reported that Backe smelled of alcohol and had bloodshot eyes.

Both the officer and Backe sustained minor injuries during the fight, according to the police report.

Backe, a 30-year-old Galveston native, was charged with resisting arrest, search and transportation by using force against an officer. He was released on $1,500 bond and wasn’t immediately available for comment.

Primer Dugout 10-6-08

Y Kant Torii Read?

‘Blackout’ electrifies Sox

Of all the almglocken frocken nerve…

The cowbells in Tropicana Field didn’t impress White Sox closer Bobby Jenks at all.

‘’Dumbest thing I ever saw,’’ he said Sunday of the fans’ rallying tactic. ‘’Just annoying. Minor league.’’

But the Sox’ ‘’rolling blackout promotion’’ for fans Sunday at U.S. Cellular Field?

‘’Whoever came up with that idea is a genius,’’ Jenks said. ‘’It brings electricity to us and excites 25 players.’’

Time: Q & A: Political Pollster Nate Silver

The greatest sports/politico Nate since Nate the Skate Archibald Cox of BrilloCrap fanzine fame!

Is politics more conducive than baseball to this type of analysis?

Baseball is a little bit easier. Everything that takes place on the field can be represented statistically pretty well. In politics, our model still relies on polls. There are a lot of little tricks to make the polls more accurate than they are inherently—by weighting them, and by seeing which pollsters have Republican or Democratic leanings, and combining them with some semblance of demographic data. But if polls underestimate youth turnout, we’ll have the same problem. The data isn’t as pure as the fact that Johnny Damon hit a double yesterday.

Sabermetricians have gone on to work in MLB (Bill James is one example) and campaigns obviously have a need for pollsters. Where do you see yourself winding up down the line?

Right now I’m having fun talking to people and informing the discussion. As a matter of practice, I think working for a campaign is probably more likely. Baseball is a small industry. Politics is a touch more open minded.

Foster’s Daily: ‘Tewks’ gives Rochester a taste of baseball

I once went to a shindig like this and Rod Gilbert talked about beignets and crullers for an hour. Nothing like Bob Tewksbury’s rap here.

Tewksbury talked about numbers, statistics and hard data becoming more prevalent among big-league teams in how they judge or grade talent.

“The Red Sox are worried about on-base percentage,” he said. “Not batting average. They want to know how many times you get on base. The more you get on base, the more runs we score.”

...Tewksbury talked about team chemistry, touching on the Manny Ramirez situation and its impact on the Sox.

“We’ve had great chemistry,” Tewksbury added. “Jason Bay coming over (from Pittsburgh) has been amazing. It changed our chemistry 10-fold. When anyone heard Jason Bay speak, did they go ‘wow’ I can understand him. He’s intelligent, he’s bright, not that Manny isn’t — Manny’s a genius in his own way. But I got tired of him talking the way that he talked. Jason Bay is a nice influx of professionalism.”

FOX: Rosenthal reacts to Sunday’s playoff action

White Sox left fielder Dewayne Wise is the kind of player who makes the baseball postseason unlike any other. Wise, 30, didn’t even have a job at the start of spring training. Now, he’s starring in the Division Series.

After hitting a three-run homer in Game 1, Wise was at it again in Game 3, drawing a walk, stealing a base and scoring in the third inning, then hitting a two-run double in the fourth to give the Sox a 4-1 lead.
...
At the start of March, he was set to sign with an independent-league team, according to the Rock Hill (S.C.) Herald. Then his workout partner, White Sox minor-league outfielder David Cook, mentioned him to Sox farm director Buddy Bell, who remembered Wise from their days together in the Reds’ organization; Wise was the Reds’ fifth-round pick in 1997.

One thing led to another, and Wise signed a minor-league deal with the White Sox on March 2.
...
Amazing how this game works: Wise, a left-handed hitting journeyman, suddenly finds himself platooning Nick Swisher, whom the White Sox for three top prospects last winter.

Reynolds: Why Terry Francona is the best Red Sox manager I’ve seen

Why...that’s enough to make Pinky Higgins drive to...(and nobody wants Pinky driving!)

It is that for this particular time, he is the perfect Sox manager.

Which doesn’t mean that he’s an infallible baseball strategist, running a game as if he had mainlined all the moves of the great managers of the past. Nor does it mean that he’s particularly colorful, one of those virtual quote machines we all love, like some modern-day version of Casey Stengel. In fact, he’s the flip side, forever mouthing the party line as if he were some political hack. And the next time Francona criticizes one of his players in public will be the first.

In short, what makes him a great manager for this team are none of the traditional ways on whch we’ve come to measure managers, save for the two rings, of course.

It’s the fact that he’s the perfect manager for this team.

MIL Journal-Sentinel blog: Emotional Sheets says goodbyes

Ben Sheets was emotional after the Brewers’ season ended today with Game 4 of the NLDS, and for good reason. Sheets knew he almost certainly had worn a Milwaukee uniform for the last time.

“Never say never,” said Sheets. “Cirillo thought he took it off and came back years later. You don’t know.”

Still, Sheets’ red eyes and solemn words told the story. Sidelined in the playoffs by an elbow injury that capped four injury-plagued seasons, the veteran right-hander probably will be allowed to leave via free agency.
...
Sheets did not deny that the day was emotional for him, however. “It was a little bit,” he said. “It still is, I guess. Uncertainty has nothing to do with it. It’s being here eight years.”

AP: C-ya, CC? Sabathia says more to consider than cash

projo: Martone: Mike Scioscia pregame in the interview room

The Art of not letting go!

Last night the team from the National League that finished with the best record in that league was eliminated. Lou Piniella sort of lamented the fact that during those three games his team did not play anything like the team that had played through the regular season. You said yesterday that the team that you guys have been hasn’t shown up yet. Do you have any theories about why things like that happen when September turns to October?

MIKE SCIOSCIA: Well, first of all, we’re not getting eliminated tonight, so I’m not going to answer that question. And we’ll talk about that if it comes up, because we’re not going to talk about it now.

I mean more the trend of the play being different?

MIKE SCIOSCIA: We’re not getting eliminated tonight, and we’ll talk about it at some point.

L.A. Times: Welch: Do the Angels still play National League-style ball? (RR)

Stop it, Matt. You’re confusing Jerry Manuel.

No matter how many times Chip Caray tries to tell you any differently tonight, the Angels team in this year’s playoffs is just a whole different beast than versions past when it comes to hitting the long ball. If Scioscia employs a National League-style offense, then so does Red Sox manager Terry Francona, whose team, despite playing half its games in Fenway Park, executed just four fewer sacrifice bunts, nine fewer successful steal attempts, and 13 fewer times caught stealing. The Angels are definitely becoming a more power-hitting team, but has the change been too late and too little?

This is the fourth consecutive year Angels stolen base totals have gone down, from a high of 161 in 2004 to 148 to 139 to 129. The team led not just the American League but all of baseball in SBs in 2004, 2005 and 2006; this year they finished just fifth. Their success rate too has gone down, from a high of 76 percent in 2004 (good for second place in the AL) to a more pedestrian 72 or 73 the past three years.

MLB.com:  Selig ‘emotional’ over fans’ response

Thunderous applause from a sellout Miller Park crowd greeted Commissioner Bud Selig as he strode from the first base dugout to the mound Sunday to throw out the first pitch before Game 4 of the National League Division Series between the Brewers and Phillies.

The roars grew as the founding owner of the Brewers made his way toward the mound, and reached a crescendo when the Commissioner raised his arms above his head to acknowledge the warm reception.

“This was very emotional,” Selig said afterward. “Extremely emotional.”

Retirement one of many options for Edmonds, 39

Edmonds said he hasn’t talked to the Cubs about next year.

‘’I’m definitely interested,’’ he said. ‘’But we’ll see how it goes.

‘’That’s up to them. That’s where the wait-and-see period’s going to be. I’m just going to wait and see who wants me and what the deal is and what the teams look like.’’

The thought of taking another shot with the Cubs definitely seems intriguing to him. And needing just 18 home runs to reach 400 has to be tempting.

‘’It’s funny, because my [11-year-old] daughter said, ‘Daddy, I heard on TV that if you did something-something you’d be one of only five players to ever do it,’’’ he said. ‘’Coming out of her mouth, I said, ‘Wow.’ I think she’s talking about the 400 home runs and something.

That would be the ultra-rare 400 HR, 400 2B and 400 Giorgio Cagnottoesque swan dives club.

MLB.com: Phils advance to first NLCS since ‘93

And then there were six…

And so the Phillies’ dormant offense awoke with a clap, pounding playoff-tested Jeff Suppan and the Brewers, 6-2, in Game 4 of the National League Division Series on Sunday to advance to the NL Championship Series against the Dodgers.
...
Scoring all six runs via the long ball—the first ripple came on Jimmy Rollins’ second career postseason leadoff homer—the Phillies took control by the third, providing a nice cushion for Joe Blanton, who was making his first playoff start.

Bill Smith’s first year as Twins GM: Big and little deals, good moves and bad

Whistling (past the graveyard) Bill Smith…

“Ultimately, (the decision) rests in this chair,” he said. “The ultimate decision on Santana, on Hunter, on making the trade with the Rays, those ultimately stop here. That’s part of this position.”

So far, those decisions have turned out mixed. Smith admits freely that his free-agent acquisitions, for the most part, failed. He signed Craig Monroe, Adam Everett and Livan Hernandez to one-year deals and Mike Lamb to a two-year contract with a third-year option. Only Everett remained when Minnesota’s season ended last week in a one-game playoff with Chicago, and his playing time was limited severely because of ineffectiveness and injury.

Hernandez’s 10 wins make that contract a success in Smith’s mind, and the Twins were helped from eating part of the right-hander’s salary when the Rockies picked him up off waivers. The others were disappointing, but Smith and Antony each said those short-term, low-cost deals significantly diminished the risk.

Was Watching: How Bad Were The ‘08 Yanks Up The Middle?

Not only that...how the hell did Alvaro Espinoza get 2,478 career AB’s?

When was the last time that the Yankees had all four players (min 300 PA) “up the middle” with negative RCAA marks in the same season? That would be 1992:

PLAYER		YEAR	RCAA	PA	POS
Pat Kelly		1992	-9	362	2B
Matt Nokes	1992	-9	430	C
Roberto Kelly	1992	-5	632	CF
Andy Stankiewicz	1992	-8	451	SS

...Funny. The Yankees didn’t finish in first or second place this season. The last time that happened? Like this “up the middle” thing that was also in 1992.

That year - 1992 - was also the last season of a four-year period which has a strong claim towards being the worse run in the Yankees’ timeline – in terms of the team’s relative and collective shortcomings.

This all just gives you a little perspective as to how bad things were in Yankeeland this season.

WFAN: Coleman’s Corner: The Numbers Didn’t Add Up

Long after first discovering Schlitz...Easy Ed Coleman discovers Splits.

Look, the Mets are a dysfunctional team and have been for quite awhile. Changes have to be made and no, they shouldn’t involve David Wright and Jose Reyes. Wright took a lot of grief for not hitting in the clutch this season, and he did hit just .243 with RISP. But check out these OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) and late-inning/pressure situation numbers for the Mets Core Four. Wright’s OPS of 924 led the team - Carlos Beltran was next at 876 - Carlos Delgado followed at 871 - then Reyes at 833. But in late-inning/ pressure situations, Wright’s OPS dropped only 10 points to 914 while hitting .304 - Beltran dropped slightly as well, 43 points to 833, hitting .284 - Delgado dropped off to 756, a difference of 115 points, although he drove in 15 runs - but Reyes plunged all the way to 553, a drop of nearly 300 points while batting just .222. Jose had some fabulous numbers. He led the National League and was third in the majors with 204 hits - he led the majors in both multi-hit games (64) and triples (19) - he scored 113 runs - he stole 56 bases. But he also has to mature and realize his importance to this club on an everyday basis. With Beltran, you won’t find many centerfielders who knock in 112 runs and score another 116. But the disparity in hitting with RISP with less than 2 outs (.379) compared to with 2 outs (.189) is ridiculous. Squeezing the bat too tight, maybe?

Boston Globe: Ryan: How can it be as easy as 1-2-3?

Albie Pearson? Daddy Wags? 1-2-3?...What’s next, a sex-burstin’ Len Barry appearance?

However, what’s up with the Angels? Gary Matthews Jr. isn’t a bad outfielder, but he messed up an Ellsbury liner Wednesday night. Hunter has seven Gold Gloves cluttering up his mantel, but he allowed a very routine fly ball off the bat of Kotsay to bounce off his glove two nights later. That stuff never happened when he was with the Twins. Is there a seldom-discussed Curse of, I dunno, Jim Fregosi? Albie Pearson? Don Baylor? Somebody.

Whatever it is, this is not the team Mike Scioscia saw all season. That’s why he has no choice but to put on the happy face.

...But I’m not going to lie to you. I expected a lot more from the Angels. And so did their manager.

Guillen wants ‘swimming pool’ at first base

And risk having a thick-chested Ned Merrill just show up?

Ozzie Guillen was amused by Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon’s observation that the first-base area at U.S. Cellular Field is likely to be a little soggy in an effort to slow the Rays’ speedsters.

“I’ll talk to (groundskeeper) Roger Bossard about it,” Guillen said. “That’s going to be our advantage. I’ll tell him to make sure you have a swimming pool at first base.

“But I don’t get into that. Believe me, I don’t. Because I think they’re going to run no matter what, even if the field is wet. The field is always wet here because that’s the way they keep it all around the bases. Maybe that’s why my team is slow. Because our field is wet.”