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BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot Counter

UPDATED AS THEY COME IN!

% on 82 Full Ballots

  98.8 - Rickey Henderson
  81.7 - Jim Rice
  76.8 - Bert Blyleven
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  68.3 - Andre Dawson
  48.8 - Jack Morris
  34.1 - Lee Smith
  26.8 - Tim Raines
  24.4 - Alan Trammell
  24.4 - Tommy John
  20.7 - Mark McGwire     

After 96 Partial/Full HOF Ballots  (82 Full & 14 Partials)

92 - Rickey Henderson                              
73 - Jim Rice
64 - Bert Blyleven  
58 - Andre Dawson
45 - Jack Morris
28 - Lee Smith
22 - Tim Raines
20 - Mark McGwire
20 - Tommy John
20 - Alan Trammell
 8 - Dale Murphy
 6 - Don Mattingly
 5 - Harold Baines
 4 - Dave Parker
 1 - David Cone
 1 - Matt Williams
 1 - Mark Grace
 1 - Pete Rose (Write-In) 

Primer Dugout 1-8-09

Happy Birthday to Bruce Sutter.

Dewan: Top ten reasons to like what the Cubs are doing this winter

Paul Shaffer makes my crawling skin crawl. That is all.

#7—Milton Bradley may have been a DH for Texas last year, but he can play a decent outfield. He’s played all three outfield positions in the last three years. His plus/minus over that time is zero, meaning he’s an average outfielder; not below average. He’ll be fine in right field for the Cubs.

#6—Without Bradley the Cubs would have to play two of these three: Felix Pie, Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome. Pie’s OPS (On Base + Slugging) for next year projects to be .756, Johnson projects to .735, and Fukudome projects to .802. One of the two lineup slots will be replaced by Bradley’s projected .879 OPS, and the Cubs will benefit by adding lots of offense.

#5—Steve Stone (best analyst in baseball—bar none) said Bradley’s numbers were padded in Texas. Sure enough, the Texas ballpark run factor for the last three years is 107 meaning 7% more runs are scored in Texas home games than road games. Wrigley field’s factor is 110 and even BETTER than that of Texas so, while we are projecting less than the .999 OPS Bradley just had in his caree

NBC: Robinson: Don’t deny Rice the Hall of Fame

Good luck, 49ers! Punt, pass and catch yourself chewing flammables...he’s all yours now!

What do we glean from these numbers? Blyleven had statistical quality, excelling in so many areas that measure pitchers. (Strikeouts are not mentioned here although it is the number most often quoted in support of Blyleven.

Personal bias: I have never understood nor has anyone rationally convinced me how strikeout totals validate the relative worth of a starting pitcher. Why did these stats fail to translate into more wins? I was shocked at the low rank for Blyleven in each category tied to games won, especially the years winning half of your starts.

Personal bias 2: I like Blyleven and hope he is elected. Thus, I acknowledge the last voters standing in Blyleven’s path may be wrestling with that very question. Why didn’t he win more games? Run support is the oft-cited answer (my Elias Sports Bureau sage, Rob Tracy, told me Blyleven had one of the lowest career run support totals in history.) Then I think of Tom Seaver, a pitcher whose first 11 seasons were with the run-challenged Mets, preaching that if a starter gets one run of support, he must pitch a shutout. If he gets two runs, he must hold the opponent to one. There does seem some validity to that concept when talking about the game’s greatest honor.

BPro: Jacques: Euphemistically Speaking, the MLB Network

Derek Jacques finds fault with the MLB Network...all without ever mentioning the wee ARF escapee sleeping on Joe Magrane’s head.

However, there was a stray phrase in one segment of Tuesday’s Hot Stove that made me do a double-take, and risks dampening my enthusiasm for the network as a whole. The segment was about the Yankees‘ history of spending on high-profile free agents. In it, reporter Greg Amsinger divided the Steinbrenner era into four parts–1973-1981, when the team spent on premier free agents like Catfish Hunter, Reggie Jackson, Goose Gossage and Dave Winfield, and won championships; 1982-1995, when the team “join[ed] other franchises in self-restraint and a change of philosophy that led to a title drought in the 80s;” 1996-2000, when the team built from within and used mid-market signings to become a champion again; and 2001-present, when the Yankees have been on a fruitless spending spree with no end in sight.

If the quotes didn’t give it away, it’s the description of that second part that rubbed me the wrong way. Set aside that the description doesn’t quite fit the time period carved out–the Yankees spent freely on the market for all but a short part of that fourteen-year period–the fact is, there’s a very specific term for the “change in philosophy” that caused the Yankees to briefly join other franchises in “self restraint.” It was called collusion, a dark period when baseball’s owners brazenly violated their labor agreement with the players, and had to be ordered to pay nearly $300 million in damages as a result.

I’m hoping that the “c-word” just slipped Amsinger’s mind while preparing the segment. Otherwise, it’s a real unpromising sign of what we can expect from the MLB Network going forward. Collusion wasn’t self-restraint, it was an illegal agreement between baseball’s clubs to restrain each other. More importantly, the collusion era is old news–if the MLB Network is going to put a glossy pro-ownership spin on embarrassing events that happened over 20 years ago, how can we trust them to report reliably on current events?

MLB.com: Hoffman, Brewers close in on deal

The Brewers are nearing a deal to sign free-agent closer Trevor Hoffman, a baseball source close to the negotiations told MLB.com in the wee hours on Thursday morning.

The one-year deal with an option for 2010 would move “Trevor Time” and the all-time leader with 554 saves from San Diego to Milwaukee.

“It’s pretty close. It looks like it’s going to happen,” the source said.

Seattle Times: Baker: The great divide

Starting at the Youcon Territory...Geoff Baker goes off.

There was very little dissension from the pack in those days. You either believed that Ricciardi was a genius, a guy who could have written “Moneyball’’ on his own if Michael Lewis hadn’t beaten him to it, or you were out of touch. In fact, even some of us who questioned Ricciardi early on found ourselves wondering if we really had been left behind. If our views were too clouded by “old school” thinking.

Nowadays, of course, things have changed. Ricciardi is almost universally loathed by the Toronto fan base, still waiting for him to deliver on his “Five year Plan’’—now heading into Year 8. Right-hand man Law and Ricciardi had a much-publicized falling out, with the former heading back to the media world. Ricciardi, while not exactly repudiating Moneyball, has gone out of his way to recast himself as a “scouts GM’’ who values tools as much as any spreadsheet. And why not? After all, his baseball team has stopped trying to portray itself as “The Little Engine That Could”, getting by on $50 million payrolls, and now spends money up near $100 million just like everyone else in the AL East save the Rays.

The first three-plus years of the Ricciardi regime amounted to a pile of B.S....

38 Pitches: Schilling: CHB plays the fool, again

Woo-Hoo!....I haven’t seen a Bostonian this ticked off since Mono Man Conolly’s money belt exploded at Maxwell’s!

Your ‘inside’ sources are crap because you and pretty much everyone else had no idea how the 2007-08 off season went and the events that occurred during that time frame. Your ‘hit and run’ journalism is so far beyond tired and boring it’s laughable.

After all these years and all that crap you’re now on the moral high ground? I have yet to hear the full story from anyone regarding both sides of this story so I can wait until then. How is it though that after all these years you can take this stance? You of all people know how sports and contracts work. It’s not, and never will be, like the ‘Real World’ right? It can’t be. You want contracts to be two-sided when far more teams and schools throw loyalty out the window than any number of athletes ever could. Loyalty in your sense of the word is a selfish and personal thing. It’s only ‘loyalty’ if it offends or pleases you.

Looking back on the Rocket’s tenure here I can’t decide when you hated him, when you loved him, when you hated the Sox and when you loved them. You flip-flop more than an epileptic toad.

Do you stand for anything? Truly? I know life’s been a challenge since that ‘group of frauds’ won it all in 2004 and destroyed a thing you’d created, but someone with your talent in writing certainly has better things to do, or at least more meaningful ones right?

Bill Plaschke: Dodgers are playing the Manny Ramirez game perfectly

We knew it would be a tightrope.

We had no idea it would stretch into January.We knew the Dodgers had the money and the attitude.

We had no idea they had the stomach.

They do. It has served them well. The Dodgers have found the perfect balance in this perilous walk toward Manny Ramirez, weathering the hot stove’s blasts, enduring the Boras spin, stepping through thick smoke screens to come within a few yards of a dreadlocked destination.

Now, if they can only keep their balance and finish it.

Finish it by signing Ramirez to the same two-year, $45-million deal they offered him two months ago—just enough to keep him hungry, their fans happy, and the team contending.

Anything longer will turn Ramirez back into a dog. Anything richer will make the Dodgers look like fools.

Nobody will give him more. No other place will love him more. If he can get a better deal elsewhere, fine, but so far, he hasn’t, and here’s guessing he won’t.

Two years, and the Dodgers can ensure he will keep trying, while Ramirez can be assured fans will keep cheering.

Two years, and everyone is happy but five-year-seeking Scott Boras, whose winter commission dollars will be reduced to a gazillion.

Rosenthal: Sources: Red Sox nearing deal with Smoltz

John Smoltz is leaving Atlanta for the most stunning of destinations.

The Boston Red Sox.

Smoltz, 41, is on the verge of signing a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Red Sox, according to major-league sources.

The deal also will include $4.5 million in incentives, giving Smoltz the chance to earn a total of $10 million, sources said.

With Smoltz, who is coming off shoulder surgery, the Red Sox would have six veteran starters.

The team’s rotation currently includes Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny.

Thanks to Schuck Chilling

MLB: Baldelli will join ‘hometown’ Red Sox

Well...half the DiMaggio deal is in place.

Rocco Baldelli all along had planned to attend Boston’s baseball writers awards banquet on Thursday night, to accept an honor reflecting his courageous battle back from injury.

Apparently, Baldelli will also receive something else: a contract to play for the Red Sox.

A popular option for Boston’s outfield ever since Coco Crisp was dealt away, the Rhode Island-born outfielder has agreed to terms with the Red Sox, according to a Wednesday night report by ESPN.com.

The deal is expected to be announced at the Thursday night social function, which would provide a properly dramatic forum for a man who has dealt with a debilitating illness for years and whom the Red Sox have always regarded a hometown guy.

espn: McClatchy steps away from Pirates

Former Pirates managing general partner Kevin McClatchy has sold his remaining shares in the team, ending a 13-year relationship that began with the newspaper heir ensuring that the club remained in Pittsburgh…
“While this move will mark the end of Kevin’s direct involvement with the Pirates after more than 13 years, he will always remain a part of the Pirates family,” Nutting said in a statement. “He has made a lasting positive impact on the Pirates and our city. On behalf of the entire organization, I personally thank him for all he has done for the cub and the city of Pittsburgh.”

Does this even change anything?

Hartford Courant: More ‘Baseball’ from Ken Burns

“From 2000 to 2010 the United States endured the candidacies of Sarah Palin and Al Franken, and saw the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox each win their first World Series in nine decades. John Paul II and Ted Williams died and Anna Nicole Smith died. The Patriot Act and the Washington Nationals and the 10th installment of a PBS perennial were born...”

Cue: techno version of “Take Me Out to the Ball Game.”

“So much has transpired in baseball since we last examined the game and all of its many nuances,” Burns said in a statement. “Above all, this new installment furthers a sense of celebration and introspection around one of our nation’s greatest institutions, the seemingly simple stick and ball game whose infinite variations and possibilities have entranced our ever-changing nation for nearly 200 years.”

(...)

Many of the voices of the original series will return including Roger Angell, Dan Okrent, Gerald Early, Bob Costas and Doris Kearns Goodwin, but add those of Felipe Alou, Joe Torre, Omar Vizquel and Ichiro Suzuki.

WBC news tonight: Feliciano is in for Puerto Rico and the US starting rotation is doomed (maybe)

(link: Pedro Feliciano joins Puerto Rico)

Pedro Feliciano has joined Team Puerto Rico. Other major Mets in WBC news:

Feliciano, a left-handed reliever who produced a spotless ERA in the inaugural Classic, will join already-confirmed Mets teammates Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado on the Puerto Rican roster. His confirmation brings the total number of Mets in the Classic to four—David Wright also announced that he will play for Team USA.

In addition, Venezuelan pitchers Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez have said that they would like to play for their national team, and Dominican shortstop Jose Reyes has said that he would like to do the same.

But closer to home, America’s starting rotation continues to empty. Cliff Lee is the latest to announce he is not going to participate. As it stands right now, the two starters who come to mind as definitely being in the WBC for the USA are Roy Oswalt and John Lackey. Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles has actually said he’d like to be considered, but let’s face it: If he’s in as anything more than a “if somebody gets hurt” alternate or something, it’ll mean that about 35 more American starting pitchers have said no, including Mike Mussina and Greg Maddux (I still say Davey Johnson should at least try).

Japanese team proposed for Tucson spring training

Tourism officials want to bring a Japanese club to play up to 15 spring training games in Tucson by 2010 to replace the Chicago White Sox, who have moved their spring-training base to the Phoenix area.

Pima County Sports and Tourism Authority chairman Tom Tracy said Wednesday the Baseline Group also has proposed using the Tucson Electric Park facility as a year-round international player development center.

Not sure what the draw of this would be for anyone beyond the die-hard ball fans.  Although if they would be playing MLB teams, I can see the appeal.

Steve Forbes: My Favorite Ballplayers (Slide show)

I gotta check my files...because I’m pretty sure I sent these in to Junior Scholastic Magazine in 1966.

Babe Ruth

He’s probably the finest athlete who’s ever lived on this earth. His feats in terms of hitting the ball, when measured, far exceed what people can do today…If you had the baseball parks in the 1920s that you have today, he would have hit 104 home runs in 1924.

He also did a lot of performances with what they call the “dead ball,” which makes it even more impressive. He was also a tolerant man. He played as much as he could in exhibition games with the “Negro Leagues.”

Sandy Koufax

He was probably the finest pitcher in baseball who had very little hitting support from his team. He was originally disdained by the manager of the Dodgers, but stuck it out and achieved extraordinary records. He studied very hard the physics of throwing and how to improve his pitching.

And if we had the modern medicine in the ‘60s that we have now, he probably would have done even better and had a longer career. But he really distorted his arm to do what he did, and pitched through considerable pain. He was also low-key--not a headline hog and no stimulants.

Bill James: Boycott the BCS!

2. There is no genuine interest here in using statistical analysis to figure out how the teams compare with one another. The real purpose is to create some gobbledygook math to endorse the coaches’ and sportswriters’ vote.

Throughout the 11 years of the BCS, whenever the “computer” rankings have diverged markedly from the polls, the consensus reaction has been, we have to do something about those computers. And they have; whenever the computer rankings don’t jibe with the “human polls,” they fix the computers. In 2000, the computers didn’t pick Miami as one of the top two teams. The coaches and sportswriters thought Miami should have been there, so they changed the computer system.

In 2001, according to Stern, “the BCS selected once-beaten Nebraska over once-beaten Oregon despite the fact that Nebraska had lost badly in their last regular season game. Popular perception this time was that the computer ratings paid too much attention to the large margin of victory in Nebraska’s early season triumphs while not putting enough value on Oregon’s steady but unspectacular performances.” What did they do? Fix the computers. In 2003, the computer rankings once more disagreed with the coaches’ and the fans’ and the writers’ perceptions, and so, once more, the computer rankings were fixed to prevent a recurrence of whatever the problem was.

Baseball’s stats man shows why the BCS sucks.

Finn: Gammons’s take

Funny, Familiar, Forgotten, Feelings...They slipped us a Mickey Newbury.

On why Teixeira chose the Yankees over the Red Sox when the conventional wisdom was that he would sign with Boston:

Gammons: As we saw over the time line, once [Yankees general manager Brian] Cashman went to his house—first Terry Francona and Theo {Epstein] went there—five or six days later Cashman went, and that was decided that the Red Sox were the stalking horse and the Red Sox would go to a number and then the Yankees will sign him. And the Yankees did a very good job of saying, ‘We’re not in it, we’re not in it’ . . . all along, that’s where he was going. Not because his father was a [high school] teammate of Bucky Dent, but he made it very clear watching it yesterday [and wading] through the baloney . . . Teixeira is Scott Boras’s ultimate client, and he’s very well-programmed . . . The Red Sox didn’t know it, and in the end there was nothing they could do about it. He wanted to go to the Yankees, his wife doesn’t like Boston—apparently she doesn’t like the stores on Newbury Street or something—and in the end that’s the way it goes.

On how he sees the AL East at the moment:

Gammons: They actually asked me to do this last night on “SportsCenter.” I took Tampa third, and I really like Tampa. Buster Olney disagreed—he thinks Tampa is the team to beat with all of their young pitching . . . I don’t see their bullpen coming close to doing what they did last year. I picked the Red Sox second, just because we don’t know about the health of David Ortiz and Mike Lowell, and I think Josh Beckett will be fine. You never know about J.D. Drew’s health. And the Yankees, with the innings that [CC] Sabathia and [Chien-Ming] Wang can give them and all the offense they should have, they clearly have to be the favorites.

MLB.com: John Patterson retires

Right-hander John Patterson, best known for his years with the Nationals, announced on Wednesday that he is retiring from baseball because of persistent pain in his right forearm.

Patterson, 30, has had forearm problems dating back to the 2006 season, and two surgeries were unable to fix the problem.

“I started throwing about a month ago, and it hasn’t been going well,” Patterson said by telephone. “I have my good days and I have my bad days. So I decided to not play anymore. I’m going to retire.”

Simon: Citi Field: Where Homeruns Go To Die

Talk about bad patches…

Eric Simon: For starters, what makes Citi Field a “Grand Canyon” where Shea Stadium was merely a decent pitcher’s park? The park dimensions are nearly identical, with Shea actually slightly deeper in many cases.

Greg Rybarczyk: I’m sure most people have not had access to the drawn-to-scale Citi Field prints, as I have, but when you compare the dimensions you get there for Citi Field with the ones for Shea Stadium that you get from overhead satellite photos, you will see that Citi Field is actually deeper in almost every part of the park, and by a large amount. You will see that only in the corners is Shea deeper, and then only barely so in LF and a bit more so in RF, while Citi Field is a) hugely deeper in RF and RCF, and b) somewhat deeper with much taller fences in LF and LCF.

...Really, Citi Field is not even close to Shea dimension-wise, and home runs will be drastically reduced. I predict this because over the last three years, my analysis of every home run hit in MLB revealed that approximately 29% of all home runs have cleared the fence by 10 feet or less. At least half of the Citi Field outfield fence is either 10 or more feet deeper, or effectively 10 or more feet deeper due to a combination of longer distance and higher fence height.

Now, there could be some change in the wind patterns that makes Citi Field more favorable than Shea, as Shea was open in center field and frequently had wind coming in, while CF is more sheltered. We’ll have to see how that turns out, but I haven’t seen any convincing evidence that the wind will be more or less favorable in CF than it was in Shea. A few people have stated what the wind was doing on a particular day in November when they got inside Citi Field, in the particular spot they were standing in, but that’s not much to hang one’s hat on.

ESPN: Caple: Bert Blyleven: Hall of Famer or not?

And nothing like MLB.comeagain? with Hal Badley showing a clip of Jeff Reardon instead of Bert Blyleven. Fine job.

UPDATE: MLB.competent? just pulled the Bodley Reardon/Blyleven clip. (As the interns scramble to find tape of Blyleven in action..."What team did he play for?")

THE VERDICT

For a number of years I didn’t vote for Blyleven. He isn’t a slam dunk candidate but the Hall of Fame isn’t reserved only for 300-win, multiple Cy Young slam dunks. There is room for pitchers other than Tom Seaver. Blyleven was a very good pitcher for a very long time and I always second-guessed myself for not voting for him. I now vote for him and feel very confident with that vote. He belongs in the Hall.

Fan Graphs: Cartwright: What I Hate About Line Drives

From ponderosa to ponderates...LD, that is.

Today I am going to start off by climbing up on my soapbox to address one of my pet peeves, the use of Line Drive rates as a predictor for Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). The standard practice is to estimate BABIP by LD/Balls in Play + .12. It is claimed that LD rateas are more stable than BABIP from year to year, and that when the actual observed BABIP varies from the predicted by a large margin, this indicates a future regression to the mean.

I’m in the process of updating my park factors for 2008, along with adding in 1999, 1955 and 1953 that the folks at RetroSheet have included in their most recent release. I’ve added a couple more categories, foul flies and line drives. Now, I’ve never heard anyone mention park factors when using LD rates, but in fact they are quite large. I might guess that there could different opinions of what is a line drive from one ballpak to another, or maybe it’s the air or the hitting background. I limited my LD factors to 2003-2008, when the RetroSheet data has complete information on whether a ball is a line drive, ground ball, fly ball or popup on every batted ball, including hits. In Arlington, a batter is 18% more likely to have a batted ball coded as a LD, which may have helped Milton Bradley to have the 2nd highest LD rate in 2008 - while in Minneapolis, it’s 20% less likely. Four of the lowest six LD rates belong to Michael Bourn, Geoff Blum, Ty Wigginton and Hunter Pence, and Minute Maid Park has the second lowest LD park factor at 0.82. This is not saying that Houston batters hit fewer line drives - it’s that Houston and it opponents both have 18% fewer balls scored as liners in Houston than they do on the road.

NYTimes.com :  Apples for a Nickel, and Plenty of Empty Seats (RR)

As Americans grapple with what could be the worst economic downturn since the 1930s, many are asking whether major league baseball, and professional sports more broadly, will prove impervious to the grim realities of the economic cycle, or will suffer as teams did then.

ajc: Moore: Andruw good fit for Braves (RR)

Only if they take Jumbo Nash’s uniform out of storage…

Worse, Jones is rather larger. He was listed as 210 pounds during his last impressive season with the Braves in 2006 (41 homers, 129 RBIs). His agent, Scott Boras recently told O’Brien that Jones is currently “down” to 230 pounds.

Definitely not good.

This is good: If the Braves could get Jones for a one-year deal at nearly $1 million with a bunch of incentives, they could see if he is close to his old self (and weight) in spring training. If he is, they could use Jones to keep center field warm until prospect Jordan Schafer is ready — which he isn’t.

If Jones isn’t anywhere near the vicinity of his old self, the Braves could move on to Plan B with Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco or somebody else.

My hunch is that the Braves’ Plan A will work. That’s Plan A, as in “A” for Andruw, as in somebody who will spend more time in the batting cage this season than at the postgame buffet.

Teixeira officially out, Romero eligibility unknown in 1-7’s WBC news (ALSO: FULL TAIWAN ROSTER)

(Link: Article on Romero, which mentions the fact his eligibility for the WBC is under question given the suspension)

Well, J.C. Romero is suspended. So what does that mean for his WBC status? Not sure.

Still to be determined is whether Romero, a native of Puerto Rico, will be allowed to pitch in the World Baseball Classic in March.

Confirming what everyone suspected, Mark Teixeira won’t be in the Classic.

“It’s very important that I learn my teammates, learn my coaches, and just have that solid base to start the season,” Teixeira said. “I would feel terrible if I showed up to spring training and two days later said, ‘See you guys, see you in three weeks.’ I want to be a part of the team in spring training. That was my choice, and I told every team that was my plan.”

Then there is Chan Ho Park who is unsure if he’ll play. He wants to work harder on winning a starting spot.

Finally, some were complaining how no names were on the Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) press release on the preliminary roster being released. Well, a Taiwan Baseball blog has a roster up. I don’t know if it is legit, but it’s the best I can find. It can be found at this link.

Sickels: San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2009

Widd Workman watch wover…

1) Kyle Blanks, 1B, Grade B+: I don’t know where he fits except as trade bait, but I’m convinced that the bat is real. Considered Grade B, but that’s what I gave him last year and he improved in ’08.
2) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B: Need to see at higher levels, could be a cross between Brian Giles and Matt Stairs.
3) Mat Latos, RHP, Grade B: I believe in his ceiling, and while the intercostal injury is annoying, he pitched very well when on the mound.
4) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade B: The Winner of the 2009 Josh Willingham Award, given to a guy who can really f**king hit, but who doesn’t get as much respect as he deserves due to lack of tools.
5) Cedric Hunter, OF, Grade B-: Improved slightly compared to ’07. Young, hits liners, Double-A will tell us a lot.
6) James Darnell, 3B-OF, Grade B-: Although drafted behind Allan Dykstra, his balance of tools and skills is likely more valuable in the long run.
7) Allan Dykstra, 1B, Grade B-: Will hit homers and draw walks, but where does he play?
8) Will Inman, RHP, Grade B-: Continues to defy the scouts. Needs to lower the walk rate but K/IP continues to stand out. Considering downgrade to C+.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF
I expected this system to be thin, but if you sit down and look at it, it is not as bad as people say. There is a definite lack of sure-fire stars, but there is considerable depth in C+ types.
Of the Bs, Blanks looks like he can be a solid first baseman, and Decker’s bat could be very special indeed. Kulbacki, Darnell, Hunter, and Dykstra should all be contributors in one way or another, and all of them have a chance to be regulars. I remain highly intrigued with Latos, if only he can stay healthy. I like Inman more than the scouts do, and yes I have seen him in person. He’s got flaws and I might go down to C+, but there is just something about him that makes me think he will continue to surprise people. We will see if that remains true in the PCL.
Antonelli is a huge enigma, and no I don’t know what to expect.

The Baseball Analysts: Lederer: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

Gainesville! Gainesville! Bert Blyleven has moved up...but does he have enough to hold on?

The numbers game is working against Blyleven this year. According to Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times, “In the last half-century, the BBWAA elected three players in only four elections. None of those votes (1972, 1984, 1991, and 1999) are good comps for 2009. On top of that, it’s very difficult for two backloggers to win a plaque in the same year, so [Blyleven and Dawson] are unlikely to join Rice. In the last 30 years, there have been only four times more than one backlogger made it in.”

If not in 2009, then one of the next two years is shaping up as a good opportunity for Blyleven to finally earn his due. While I would be in favor of Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin in 2010 and Jeff Bagwell in 2011, I’m not at all convinced that any of these three players will make it in their first attempts. As such, Blyleven could be the odds-on favorite to have his day in Cooperstown in one of the following two summers, especially if he beats out Dawson this year.

Memo to BBWAA: Don’t let this go too far. Memo to Bert: Don’t let it get to you. While the waiting is the hardest part, it’s going to feel like something from a dream very soon.

IIATMS: Rosenberg: More on Mitre; Dissecting Romero’s claims

Ergo, pharm them out…

I managed to get hold of Matt Sosnick from Sosnick-Cobbe Sports, the firm that represents Sergio Mitre. Sosnick is not Mitre’s representative; Paul Cobbe is. Matt was kind enough to take a few moments to help clarify some things about Mitre’s story.

IIAMTS: Why should we believe Mitre’s story?
Sosnick: Paul and Sergio have been dealing with this issue for months, working with the MLBPA. Based on what I know about the situation, I believe there is zero chance that Sergio would be making this up.

IIATMS: It was noted in Peter Gammons’ original article that Romero claims he was offered a more lenient suspension (25 games) if he plead guilty. Was Mitre offered that same deal?
Sosnick: Mitre was not offered that deal. A lot of scenarios were bantered around as possibilities but Mitre was never offered a choice. My partner Paul Cobbe handled the entire deal with Mitre and the MLBPA hearing/appeals process. He was never offered a choice. We hoped for zero games; it came down as a 50 game [suspension] for both Romero and Mitre. We, along with the MLBPA thought that was unfair. If Romero claims he was offered 25 games to admit guilt, that comes as a surprise to us since Mitre was never made that offer.

IIATMS: Who knew about this and for how long?
Sosnick: Only myself, Paul and Sergio [and the MLBPA] were aware. We’ve been working on it for months. Paul and Sergio have been to NYC to discuss and meet with MLB officials. Once we knew that the league would release this today, the only person that I called was Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman, out of respect for him and our working relationship. We released Sergio’s statement after the Romero statement was released.

Klapisch: Infield of dreams

Giambi’s athleticism was so dismal, he simply stopped trying after a while. The Yankees eventually turned a desperate gaze to Wilson Betemit, Shelly Duncan and Richie Sexson. The yearlong experiment was a failure: The phalanx of Yankee first baseman combined for a -5.2 UZR (ultimate zone rating), which was the third-worst in baseball last year.

Teixeira, by contrast, finished 2008 with a UZR of 11.7 – tops among major league first basemen. This metric is a growing favorite in the sabermetric community, its basic purpose to measure the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on his ability to get to balls in his vicinity.

Of course, it doesn’t take detailed data to grasp how the Yankees will benefit from a first baseman who, like Mattingly and Keith Hernandez from an earlier era, makes his infielders more proficient.

Specifically, that means A-Rod, whose sidearm delivery often creates a “drift” in his throws to first base, usually into the path of the oncoming runner. Even the normally steady Derek Jeter suffered throwing lapses last year, pulling Giambi off the bag for no apparent reason. Starting next month in Tampa, the shortstop will be heartened to know that it’s Teixeira, not Giambi, on the other end of those patented spin throws from deep in the hole.

Paid Teixeira on his tiptoed feet
Pulling Teixeira from the bag