Postseason Prediction Thread

Get ‘em in before the games start!

Russo: Yankees To Have Competition In Burnett Sweepstakes

More serious biz from Russo…

Buster Olney broke the news on the Michael Kay Show Friday that the Blue Jays are preparing to offer A.J. Burnett a new, revamped, 2 year deal worth $13 million per season. IF this is true, it almost assures that he will opt out of his contract early. Most baseball people believe he could get as much as $19 - $21 million per season if he goes free agent.

If he does opt out, everyone knows that the Yankees will be one of the first ones knocking on his door. The Yankees absolutely love Burnett, who finished the 2008 campaign with an 18-10 record in 35 games, while accruing 221 1/3 innings of work and a league leading 231 strikeouts.

But New York will have major competition for his services. After making some inquiries to my sources, I received a list of teams who either could, or will be, competing…

N.Y. Times: Anderson: An Ebbets Field Confession From That ‘Brennan’ Kid (RR)

Eatcha heart out, Rick Reilly.

If confession is good for the soul, it’s even more healing when it occurs after more than 60 years and some 3,000 miles from the site of the dastardly deeds.

Bob Natiello, who grew up in the Crown Heights section of Brooklyn, is a retired New York advertising executive living in Sedona, Ariz. But in a letter to me not long ago, he pleaded guilty to his life of crime as a turnstile boy at Ebbets Field in 1944, when a seventh-place Dodgers team played there. Instead of turning over his confession to the authorities, I’m reprinting much of it here, with his permission, as a lesson to anyone who may be tempted to betray an employer.

On the first day the 14-year-old Natiello arrived for the turnstile shape-up, he was rejected, but as he turned away, the hiring boss yelled: “I need one kid for the bleacher gate. I want an Irish kid. Who’s Irish?”

Thinking quickly but deceitfully, Natiello, knowing his Italian name wouldn’t work, realized that one of his Jesuit teachers at Brooklyn Prep had nicknamed him Murphy because of the Irish features he inherited from his Irish grandmother.

“I’m Irish,” he shouted.

Palladino: On Hits, Runs, and NO MORE Errors

With the Rudolf Friml filmfest over. Joe Palladino hits the keys.

There are many things about baseball that I no longer understand. As someone who played the game since I was able to walk, and played it through college, I always thought I knew a thing or two about it.

Apparently, I know nothing.

For instance, why can’t professional baseball players bunt? Why do most display show no fundamental knowledge of how to run the bases properly? Has anyone ever mentioned to A-Rod that he’s the cut-off man on a base hit to left?

But the gripe today is not about fundamentals, sort of, but about scoring. Did you watch Game 1 of the NLCS Thursday night? Did you wonder what I wondered? Doesn’t anyone get charged with an error any more?

...How about Game 1 of the ALCS? A huge play in the eighth inning gave the Red Sox an insurance run. It was a line drive to left by Youk. Carl Crawford made a horrendous play on the ball, diving when he didn’t need to dive, and the ball broke off his glove. It was scored a double. Wrong. It was an ERROR, not a hit.

Obama flip-flops, becomes a Phillies Phan

Standing in Philadelphia, in front of thousands of residents of Philadelphia, he went out on a limb. “I am a White Sox fan,” he said, “but since the White Sox are out of it, I’ll root for the Phillies now.” So there you have it, Obama is now pulling for the Phillies.  Write it in stone. Hold him to it.  Sure, there is a lot to like in the Phillies.  Lefty Jamie Moyer, for instance, pitching into his late 40’s, is defying the limits of age (take notice John McCain). The Phillies have nice uniforms and a nice stadium too.  There is a lot to like, but is that really what Obama likes?  Could it be that the Phillies are from Philadelphia which is in Pennsylvania, which is a battleground state?  And does it help that they are playing the Dodgers from Los Angeles which is in California, which is a safe Democratic state?  Who really needs the Dodgers anyway?

Will Obama stick to this position when he campaigns in Florida?  After all, the Tampa Bay Rays are in the playoffs, and are located smack in the middle of key swing territory in the Sunshine State. Will Obama be brave enough to tell Rays fans (all 6 of them) that he is rooting for the Phillies?  Or will he try to claim dual allegiance to a National League Team (the Phillies) and an American League team (the Rays)? And if he does that, what about the millions of truly moral, excellent, and just fans of the Boston Red Sox? Massachusetts is no swing state, but Red Sox Nation knows no borders, and there are thousands of rabid fans in New Hampshire, a key battleground state.

Yes. Another Political thing. I post them but then never reply in them, which may be the smart way to go.

Gruden’s Day Job Keeps Him From Rays-Red Sox

“phase of the tournament” ??!!  Sufferin’ Salukis!...I forgot to fill out my bracket!

There is a downside to being the head coach of an NFL team, and Bucs coach Jon Gruden is experiencing it right now.

..."In some ways, I’m very disappointed in my inability to keep in touch with reality,” Gruden said. “There’s an election coming on here and I really haven’t even gotten a chance to get to know either candidate, honestly.

“And I’m really a big baseball fan. I was a heck of a player once, too. Hit a home run one day. And I’ve been to so many Rays games. I think they’re the greatest story in sports.”

Gruden will be rooting, even if he’s not watching.

“I have a lot of respect for pro sports and what it takes to get to this phase of the tournament, so I just hope they can put an exclamation point on what has already been one very exciting year for me and my kids,” he said.

N.Y. Times: Architect of Phillies, Gillick Will Listen to Anyone’s Plans (RR)

“Listen to Anyone’s Plans*” (*cackles like a mad scientist)

When Gillick came to Philadelphia, he found a team on a treadmill. For five seasons, the Phillies had won 80 to 88 games and had not reached the playoffs. After another near miss in 2006, they have made consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since 1980 and ’81.

Gillick has made mistakes, like signing starter Adam Eaton and trading Gavin Floyd to the Chicago White Sox for Freddy García. But other big moves have worked, like dealing for Brad Lidge and shipping out Bobby Abreu, which saved more than $20 million and cleared a spot for Shane Victorino.

Most notable is Gillick’s knack for finding complementary players. From Jayson Werth to Chad Durbin to Scott Eyre to Greg Dobbs, Gillick is skilled at finding bargain contributors.

“There’s some guys we’ve really zeroed in on, not the sexy, big-name guys that everybody knows about,” Amaro said. “But for the piece that’s going to help our club be better, he is fantastic. It’s really helped getting a guy like Matt Stairs or J. C. Romero — the pieces that give your team some marginal advantage.”

Texas Rangers Fall Instructional League Report: Part 2

I recently had the privilege of attending the FIL and I’d like to share some of my observations on the players whom I was able to either see play in game/simulated/side action, speak with personally, or gather information about from the players/scouts in attendance.

Martin Perez: Exceptional player/person. I watched Perez throw a side session and I was really impressed with his stuff. His clean, repeatable mechanics in combination with excellent raw stuff point to a pitcher that far exceeds the 17 years of Martin Perez.

His fastball has excellent life and sources say he can already run it up to 94 mph. His curveball, perhaps his best pitch, is a serious hammer. He can drop it into the strike zone at will. His change-up shows promise and will end up giving Perez an arsenal of three above-average pitches to choose from.

I had the privilege of conducting a lengthy interview with Perez, and I can honestly say that it was one of my favorite ones ever. Perez is extremely confident in his ability, but, like Michael Main, doesn’t feel the need to wear it like a badge on his sleeve, or as a chip on his shoulder. He is also one of the smartest players I have ever talked to.

The cool thing is that his knowledge isn’t limited to just the baseball diamond. Perez can speak intelligently about anything you throw at him. I really can’t say enough about this kid. I have a feeling that he could end up being one of the top prospects in baseball at some point. No joke.

My interview with Perez should be ready to go later on this fall.

Fraley: Dice-K breaks all the rules and still wins

Randomness shocks Fraley. Writes column.

Before he is finished, Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka could destroy every long-held belief about pitching in the majors.

Go ahead and start hitters off with ball one. It doesn’t matter.

Walks? Four or five a game are no big deal.

Let the opponent fill the bases. All that does is make them more frustrated.

He was at his Matsuzakian best in Friday night’s opener of the American League Championship Series at Tropicana Field. That is to say he did everything that pitching coaches have said for 100 years is wrong and flirted with a no-hitter in the 2-0 victory.

...That does not fully explain Matsuzaka’s uncanny ability to wriggle out of jams.

HANK: I’M STILL IN CHARGE HERE! (RR)

Neat! I’m pretty sure The Piss-Ant Employees opened for The Vice Creems at one point.

“There is one very important point here,” Steinbrenner told The Post during an exclusive half-hour session. “The most important thing to remember is this: If you didn’t get it from me or my brother [Hal], it doesn’t mean [anything]. I don’t care about some piss-ant employee. If you don’t get it from me or Hal, it’s meaningless. I have a lot of things [in Tampa] and Hal is in New York, which is good.”

Asked if he has taken a step back, Steinbrenner emphatically said, “No.”

Since The Boss turned over the day-to-day operations to his sons, Hank has one regret.

“I should have pushed harder for the [Johan] Santana deal,” said Hank, who was talked out of signing Santana by Hal and GM Brian Cashman because they believed the Yankees’ talent (Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera) and the money (Santana signed a six-year, $137.5 million extension with the Mets) was too costly.

“My dad wanted to do that,” Hank said. “But that doesn’t mean we would have won if we got into the playoffs, because [Chien-Ming] Wang was hurt.”

ESPN: Nelson: Billingsley plays blame game after rough outing

Ward, It was the Beaver who burned the ####### pot roast.

But after the game, Billingsley was awkward when answering questions and unable to provide any details other than saying that catcher Russell Martin calls the games behind the plate and that “pitch selection” was most likely the culprit.

“I felt good; I felt I had good stuff,” said Billingsley, who added that a lot of the hits went the other way or found holes. “I didn’t do well [Friday] and I didn’t get the job done and I think pitch selection was kind of what the problem was.”

He also said that when he’s not feeling comfortable with what Martin’s calling behind the plate, he’ll shake him off. When Martin was asked whether Billingsley was shaking him off, he said, “Not necessarily. Not that I noticed. Not more than usual.”

...And so the potential ace was anything but one Friday. As for him basically assigning the blame to Martin, one teammate said, “He’ll learn.”

David Forst of the Oakland A’s is no longer a Mariners GM candidate

Cross David Forst off the Mariners’ list of general-manager candidates.

Forst, the Oakland A’s assistant GM, has decided not to interview with Seattle, according to A’s general manager Billy Beane.

Beane said that the A’s plan to provide a greater role for Forst in future years.

“David is a critical member of the A’s management team, and we anticipate him taking on a prominent role in the future,” Beane said in an e-mail to The Times.

Beane then quickly returned to playing Castlevania: Harmony of Dissonance.

Plaschke: Impostors ruining Dodgers’ feel-good story (RR)

A Case of Tichborne to go please.

Who is this manager who allowed his starting pitcher to wilt for a second consecutive game? What happened to the great Joe Torre?

Who is this outfielder who has one bloop hit in seven at-bats, zero hits in five chances with men on base and one big center-field boot? Where is the likable Matt Kemp?

What about the leadoff hitter who has one hit in nine at-bats, a game-changing wild throw, and all sorts of uncomfortable grimaces? Who took the beloved Rafael Furcal?

The Dodgers didn’t just leave Citizens Bank Park field Friday, they were thrown out by a Phillies team that pushed them to the door just before snatching their swagger.

Gone is the clubhouse music. Gone are the hopeful smiles. Gone is the idea that Manny Ramirez can carry them.

Jenkins: 3-Dot Lounge: Time to shut up baseball owners and shorten the season

and shorten the 3-Dot Lounge down to 2 while you’re at it!

Ignore those over-the-top groundskeepers (notably David Mellor in Boston) who destroy the pure aesthetic of grass fields by cutting patterns or cutesy designs into the outfield. The Giants’ unblemished sea of green is among the gems of Peter Magowan’s legacy; don’t mess with it . . . You really have to wonder about the Dodgers’ eye for pitchers if Chan Ho Park is anywhere near the staff, especially now ... Fox made its postseason debut with Game 1 of the NLCS, and one of the “Ford Keys to the Game” was - no kidding - “Beating (Cole) Hamels would be ‘hot.’ “ Then Tim McCarver chimed in: “A real hip term.” Is it even possible to be that out of touch? ... Then again, it’s a relief to be temporarily free of TBS, with the miscast Tony Gwynn (can’t go on the air with that voice), the digitally superimposed “9” near first base (as if 9 feet is some sort of magic number for a runner’s lead), and the relentless plugs for Frank Caliendo’s TV show (so oppressively intrusive, he ceases to be funny).

Dugout Central: Pagliarulo: This Manny Criticism Has to Stop!

Full Stop. Ranking Full Stop.
Said Ranking Full Stop
This Rankings Gotta Stop!

Let me be clear: this is not a criticism of the way the Red Sox do things.  They’ve won two World Championships in the past four years and have somewhere around a 25% chance to win another this year – and they’re well situated to contend for the foreseeable future. They’re one of the best-run organizations – perhaps the best. The benefit of having a relaxed culture has obviously been far greater than the negatives associated with giving Ramirez extra latitude.

“But hold on,” you might be screaming. “You can’t blame the environment.  After all, you don’t see Pedroia, Varitek, Youkilis and other Red Sox lollygagging.” You don’t see those guys lollygagging, you’re correct.  But not everyone responds to their environment the same ways.  Some guys will thrive without structure; some guys won’t. Ramirez did for a while, but deep down every player wants structure.

The current Red Sox organization didn’t acquire Ramirez; they inherited him.  Given that they intentionally set out to create a relaxed culture, they probably wouldn’t sign a Ramirez type today, even with the gaudy numbers.  Ramirez is a fish out of water in the current Sox. With the Dodgers, he’s where he needs to be – in a structured environment.  That’s why he’s more productive now.  And if he puts it in cruise control for the Dodgers, he’ll be taken out of the line-up, just like everyone else.

Canseco detained at Mexican border for ‘roids

If true, the allegation is more than a little embarrassing for Canseco, considering the function of the steroid he was allegedly in possession of.

Canseco was allegedly caught with the steroid HCG, which is short for Human chorionic gonadotropin.

Wikipedia notes, “In males, hCG mimics L H and helps restore and maintain testosterone production in the testes. As such, hCG is commonly used during and after steroid cycles to maintain and restore testicular size as well as endogenous testosterone production. However, if hCG is used for too long and in too high a dose, the resulting rise in natural testosterone will eventually inhibit its own production via negative feedback on the hypothalamus and pituitary.”

Balls. Knockers. Testes. Hangers. Sacs.

NBC.com: Debating the Cubs with Bill Murray (Video)

Hit and miss SNL...but William Murray’s face is classic.

Thanks to The Joe Schaffernothings.

N.Y. Times: With Stadiums Going, Going, Ashes May Be Gone (RR)

As Jawaharlal “Hawk” Nehru once said..."Without peace, all other dreams vanish and are reduced to ashes on a forgotten ballfield.”

Robin Brass, who scattered her sister’s ashes at Shea in August 2004, attended that last game. She and her sister, Marilyn, were devoted fans, but Ms. Brass did not feel the need to take home a clump of dirt.

“Where I put the ashes is in that little triangle in foul territory where they put those recliners where people sat,” said Ms. Brass, an administrative assistant at a Long Island company that maintains medical equipment. “They put recliners on top of my sister. I was annoyed about that. Those people were sitting on my sister. Now she’s going to be in the parking lot. Don’t laugh. I’m going to figure out where she is in that new parking lot, and park on top of her.”

Charlie Manuel’s mother passes away, plans to manage Game 2

Charlie Manuel plans to manage the Philadelphia Phillies against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS despite the death of his mother.

The Phillies said that June Manuel died Friday morning. No other information was immediately available.

Manuel watched batting practice from his customary spot behind the cage, but did not talk to the media and his usual pregame press conference was canceled.

Lookout Landing: 2008 in a Nutshell - Lawn Dart

Proust had his madeleine. Van Gogh had his field of poppies. Mariners fans now have their YES/HD animated Raul Ibañez LawnDart.gif, endlessly looping. Be mesmerized.

If the Yankee Stadium field is 2008, then Raul Ibanez is the Mariners: talented but deeply flawed. And as the ball rolls towards his glove - signifying the opportunity to make a move presented when the Angels lost 40% of their rotation - Raul reaches down, seizes the opportunity, and instantly puts his flaws on display for the whole world to observe. It’s comical in its feebleness. The degree of ineptitude and the haste with which it reveals itself are mesmerizing. ... The Mariners entered the 2008 season ecstatic to have a chance and made it one day before crossing paths with the #### Parade. One day. Raul’s throw flew about two feet.

The final shred of symbolism? The one bit of nutshellitude that really puts this over the top? Not only is Lawn Dart a .gif, but it’s a .gif of an instant replay. 2008 wasn’t just a nightmare of a season; it was a nightmare of a season that we had to live over and over again with every passing day.

TSN: Lutovsky: Q&A with Billy Beane

Associate editor Matt Lutovsky is a fantasy baseball expert and, obviously...Billy Beane is not.

Beane, an avid video game player—he called it his “hidden vice” and said he gets “yelled at by his wife all the time” for playing—talked about his involvement with MLB Front Office Manager and offered his thoughts on fantasy baseball (he’s scared to play). He also addressed some of the issues fantasy owners love to argue about—which stat categories are best, how to know when it’s time to trade a player and what to look for when trying to figure out if minor leaguers will have success in the majors.

One of the features is on-line fantasy leagues. How much do you know about fantasy baseball in general?

BB: I’ll tell you one thing—I’ll never play on-line myself because I don’t really feel like being outsmarted and embarrassed. I say this with total candor and honesty. Particularly with Major League Baseball, if you look at the type of people who are running clubs now and then you go to the fantasy leagues and on-line gaming, they’re really starting to blend into two. I’ve had many people say, “Hey, why don’t you join my fantasy league baseball league with me?” And, quite frankly, I’m not really willing to expose myself to that arena because there are some really bright people out there.

Bruce Dal Canton, R.I.P.

51-49, 3.67.  Not shabby.

Dodgers’ Andruw Jones is rooting for his team

Andruw was our leader; he saw the truth. He changed the world. Took us back – back to a simpler time, a time of peace, tranquility and 170 lbs. of value.

Jones said he has maintained contact with Rafael Furcal, Angel Berroa and Manny Ramirez. Asked if he thought the Dodgers should re-sign Ramirez, he said, “I’m sure they should. He’s a great hitter.”

But, he added, “If they sign him, there’s going to be another issue. We’ll still have me and Juan Pierre. [Andre] Ethier has to play. Matt Kemp’s going to have to play.

“After they win the World Series, it’s going to be interesting.”

Jones said he expects to be the everyday center fielder next season.

“I’m an everyday guy or I need to move out,” he said.

L.A. Times: Dodgers-Phillies and a disturbing commercial (RR)

To them, it simply is another commercial. To us, it is The Beast.

In the NLCS and ALCS, the team that has won Game 1 in a best-of-seven format has gone on to win the series 27 times. They have lost the series 17 times.

Just when you thought it was safe to watch the playoffs without having to see all of those annoying “Frank TV” ads, along comes a commerical that makes those seem harmless.

I’m talking about the DirecTV ad featuring Craig T. Nelson and Heather O’Rourke from a scene in the 1982 movie “Poltergeist.” Who can watch that commerical without recalling that O’Rourke died when she was 12 years old? So, DirecTV is using a movie about ghosts featuring a girl who died when she was 12 to pimp their product. Am I the only one disturbed by this? And the fact that this commerical comes on seemingly every five minutes makes it worse.

Thanks to Art Martone of the Borley Rectory Society.

WSJ: Blacks in Baseball: A Statistical Change-Up [OT]

In the past decade, though, dozens of articles have lamented the declining proportion of black players, from 27% of all major leaguers in the mid-1970s to 8.2% last season, even as the percentage of Americans who are of African descent has inched up in recent decades.

For all its currency, that decline appears to be way off. In recent years, two baseball researchers, working independently, have found that blacks probably never made up more than 20% of major leaguers.

The findings are interesting because research on race in baseball can have an impact beyond the diamond. Baseball is a popular laboratory for workplace studies of diversity and discrimination, including how race influences assignments to specific jobs and how diversity affects company success.

SHEA STADIUM AUCTION: Outfield Wall Panel with AIG Advertisement

Hit Sign Win Lawsuit.

Item Description

This outfield wall panel was located on the field at Shea Stadium during the 2008 season, the Mets’ final season at Shea. This panel has the AIG advertisement on it.

Each item is one-of-a-kind, as is, as it stands in Shea. If for any reason your item is unable to be removed from Shea, or inadvertently destroyed during dismantling, you will receive a full refund.

Thanks to DeLessio.

WEEI: Speier: New Thinking Has Rays, Sox Prioritizing Defense

Pulls de Bono’s “The Mechanism of Mind” off shelf...finds lost roach clip hidden behind it...puts book back.

This year, the Rays led the majors in defensive efficiency with a 71.0 percent rate of converting balls in play into outs. One executive suggested the Rays had one of the biggest single season defensive improvements in big-league history. Another, while acknowledging the challenges of measuring defense, said that the Rays might have improved by as many as 15 wins purely on the basis of improved work in the field.

While the Rays led baseball in defensive efficiency, the Sox finished fifth in the majors with a 69.9 percent conversion rate. A franchise that had been known in the recent past as a bunch of immobile mashers—Francona has admitted that in past seasons his team could be described as “plodding”—has transformed into a group that mixes athleticism with tremendous defensive instincts and positioning.

The outfield now features players with excellent instincts in Jason Bay and J.D. Drew in the corners. Center is occupied alternately by Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury, both of whom were rated by an American League coach as elite defenders.

Passan: Rays’ numbers game

Quick, somebody contact the International Congress of Mathematicians! Give Maddon the Tropicana Fields Medal right now!

By the middle of the season, Maddon had revealed the second part of his equation. (Oh, yes, it got even more complicated than 9 = 8.)

He wanted the team to play 27 games better than last season, a 96-win pace that would’ve registered as ludicrous had the Rays not kept winning and winning. Maddon divvied up those 27 victories: nine from its bullpen, one of baseball’s best after finishing among the worst of all time in 2007; nine from its fielders, whose improvement was nearly as staggering; and nine from its lineup, fortified by rookie Evan Longoria and others.

“I didn’t look at 27 as much as I did nine,” reliever J.P. Howell said. “Little bits. Little increments. It helped me. Instead of making everything complicated, we made it a little simpler.”

Maddon really is a genius. Getting his players to think that 9 = 8 simplifies things.

USA Today: Torre’s brother: What Yanks did to Joe ‘was not right’

Well, let me tell you, Frank Torre was fortunate he was born in the Torre family...how else could he lounge around ML dugouts, get transplants and cool stuff like that.

Frank Torre, the 76-year-old brother of Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre, walked onto the field Thursday at Citizens Bank Park, and had one question:

“I wonder what the (New York) Yankees are thinking now while they’re fishing or doing whatever,” Torre said, smiling. “I have friends there. I will always root for Derek Jeter. But what they did to my brother was not right. Really, it was pathetic what they did. There was no class.”

What really disturbs Frank Torre is not so much the Yankees didn’t want his brother back, but the way they’ve acted since his departure.

“I hear (Yankees co-chairman) Hank Steinbrenner say where would Joe Torre be without the Yankees,” Frank Torre said. “Well, let me tell you, Hank Steinbrenner was fortunate he was born in the Steinbrenner family. His inheritance is a whole lot bigger now than it would have been if not for my brother. I think he gained a lot more money than my brother after all of those World Series.”

Is Moores looking to sell? If so, his timing could hardly be worse

Characterizing a story as “highly speculative” is attorney talk for “none of your business.” It is neither a confirmation nor a denial, but a transparent tactic designed to create doubt without actually disputing any of the specific assertions.

Somebody has been watching the debates.

Given the petty nature of the disputes that have become public during Moores’ divorce proceedings, the sale of a significant portion of the Padres has seemed inevitable for many weeks. Yet even if the divorce were more amicable, it would be difficult to bridge the irreconcilable differences between baseball’s requirement of a single controlling partner and California’s community property laws.