3 Decades of Minor League Translations

So, what value do these have? For me, two things stand out as the most important. First, having these either reminds us or introduces us to fine players that never got a shot in the majors. We live in a time when Japan is a real alternative option for Ken Phelpsers like Greg LaRocca to have lucrative careers playing baseball and when increased understanding of the usefulness of minor league statistics in the mainstream has resulted in fewer guys getting completely overlooked.

Second, more information helps us increase our knowledge of how players age and develop. For systems that look at…

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk Emergency Update

Rod Miller has informed me of an extremely serious error in the final disk. I have Randy Johnson's splits reversed, causing him to be tougher against righties than lefties. I've uploaded a new copy of the final disk here which fixes this error. I've also fixed Madison Bumgarner's first name from Madixon to Madison, though that's a very small fix.

To leagues already running, please simply edit Randy Johnson's splits at the earliest possible convenience if you haven't noticed it already.

2010 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

The Anthopoulos regime is going to have problems if they try to do any quick fixes. The team can contend, but it's going to need a long-term plan.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Adam Lind*               lf  26  .277  .339  .488 152 582  84 161 38  2 27 102  53 119  1  1   117 
Aaron Hill               2b  28  .275  .323  .447 131 528  72 145 32  1 19  73  36  82  3  1   103 
Lyle Overbay*            1b  33  .251  .339  .416 130…

2010 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

Now, the team's a darkhorse for a reason as the Braves seriously contending does require a little luck with injuries because the positions where the team is most susceptible to boo-boos. Glaus missed almost the entire season with shoulder injuries and Jones is always an injury risk, but the team has very poor upper-minors depth at both positions. The rotation, if the projected 1-5 plays, is very strong and Hanson/Jar-Jar could be the new Smoltz/Glavine, but the team's 6-10 options on the mound aren't the best and Tim Hudson is still coming off major surgery.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Chipper Jones#           3b…

2010 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Prince Fielder*          1b…

2010 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

The offense, however, should keep the Cards in the thick of things in a rather weak division. Pujols and Holliday gives any team a great head start and while there aren't any other stars in the supporting cast (though Ludwick should be better), there also aren't any serious holes and most positions have viable fill-ins. Assuming of course, there's no repeat of the 2009 3B situation, with the stubbornly sticking through some pretty awful Joe Thurston play.

In this division, the Cards look like an 85-90 win team, which makes them contenders, but there are a few places where some things going horribly wrong could drop that…

2010 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs

Despite some of the problems, the Bradley issues being the most prominent, the team still finished 83-78 and almost all the key contributors return this season. Harden is the biggest loss, but the rest of the rotation is strong, especially if Lilly returns on schedule and the team resists the temptation to use Shipwreck Silva or Jeff Samardzija in, well, games of baseball.

The team does have long-term offensive concerns, with most of the core in their 30s, but they still have enough time to develop a power bat or two (Vitters still has some serious issues to iron out and may not be one of them) and aren't playing in the NL East. The Cubs should seriously contend this year.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Aramis Ramirez           3b  32  .295  .368  .519 112 420  64 124 27  2 21 101  43  59  1  1   126 
Derrek Lee               1b  34  .293  .372  .502 125 482  75 141 31  2…

Rangers - Signed Lewis

Terrific, terrific signing by the Rangers. I'm not generally a fan of some of the team's moves (though there haven't been any repeats of the infamous Eaton trade), but this shows imagination and creativity and aggression in an area that hasn't been really been looked at by most major league clubs. Sure, teams go after Japanese talent, especially top talent, with far more gusto than they used to, but the value of using NPB as a higher-level minor-league than AAA, a place to watch players that either haven't gotten a chance in the majors or still need time to work out things in an easier-than-MLB-but-better-than-AAA environment, has generally been overlooked at MLB teams. Now, the Japanese might not be crazy about being considered an elite MLB minor league, but I'm looking at this from the viewpoint of MLB teams.

Lewis, of course, was a disappointment in the majors for the Rangers after being a top prospect. He had serious issues with his command, but also serious issues with his shoulder, and any chance of him coming back from a miserable 2003 was dashed by a torn rotator cuff…

2010 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona really isn't a 70-92 team, despite 2009's disappointing record. The team's clearly inferior to the Dodgers, but there's enough of a core here, with some things going right, to be a player in the wild card race.

The team made some very quiet, solid pickup in LaRoche and Kelly Johnson and the offense ought to be better than 10th in the NL in runs scored. There are some definite concerns with the pitching staff, with Webb being a concern until he actually takes the field and not a lot of depth after the top 3 in the rotation. Bringing in an inning-eater at this point and another reliever are needed additions, but the market is kind of thin and Arizona, burned by the contract given to the recently released Eric Byrnes, might not want to jump into bidding wars for Garland or Pineiro.

The minors are very thin at the upper levels, with most of the help being speculative and…

A Child’s Plea to Stop Steroids in Baseball

2010 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

One thing the Dodgers demonstrate is that who the GM is can be overrated - the organization itself is top-notch and a testament to the work that Dan Evans and to a lesser extent, Paul DePodesta kept the team running while it recovered from the Kevin Malone era.

Even with a lot of the names on the list here only because they haven't signed yet, the Dodgers could trade the entire current bullpen and cobble together a fairly decent one from the remaining depth. Luckily, they don't have to do that. Of the pitchers I've projected so far (I've done most of the pitchers for all but the Braves, A's, and Angels), the Dodger bullpen sports 3 of the 6 lowest reliever ERA+s.

The team still could use another starter and they'll probably add one (at last check, they're still in the running to bring Jon Garland back).

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+…

The Big Yawn

One of the world’s worst kept secrets was finally revealed this week.  Mark McGwire used steroids during his playing career.

The earth-shattering revelation served as a tincture to a rather slow news cycle and soon we got to hear what everyone thought about the biggest outrage since the Black Sox threw the 1919 World Series.  Or was it the Crusades?  We got to hear what Hank Aaron thought about the news.  We got to hear what Lance Berkman and Claire McCaskill thought about it.  At this point, I feel a little cheated that the government hasn’t leaked exactly what the Underwear Bomber thinks of McGwire. 

So, what exactly does this signify for the validity of home run records and baseball history?  Nothing.

Numbers play a big part in baseball.  Sabermetrics has become increasingly popular over the last 15 years and numbers like 4256 and .400 capture the imagination of baseball fans without any further explanation.  Numbers tell stories, they preserve memories of games played that nobody now remembers, and many fans have memories of poring over box scores.

Numbers, however, really aren’t important in of themselves.  Without being placed in context, a number is meaningless.  Hitting .400 and winning 20 games…

Royals - Signed Scott of the Pod People

Kansas City Royals - Signed OF Scott Podsednik, pending physical of Podsednik and Dayton Moore’s competency hearing.

Red Sox - Signed Beltre

This is a 1-year, $9 million contract with a $1 million buyout and a player option for $5 million that becomes $10 million if Beltre has 640 plate appearances. He hasn't done that since 2006, but it could happen.

Not the sexiest move in the world with Holliday's contract being big news, but Beltre's glove makes this a very good signing for the team. The team clearly does not want Mike Lowell anywhere near 3B and would have already gotten rid of him if not for the injury. Beltre, overrated at the time of his last contract, has become underrated in general due to a park that makes his hitting look worse than it is and excellent defense. For some reason, while the general public does appreciate (and probably overappreciates) defense, it seems speedy, up-the-middle players are the ones that get the due for defense, even if they're not all that good.

The Sox have made some fairly quiet moves that drastically upgrade the defense - the Ellsbury/Cameron/Drew outfield and the hot corner upgrade should result in some of the starters having "surprising" good years.

On a side note,…

2010 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

Something's not quite right! So, you put in an engine you found in a 1984 Dodge Dart at the junk yard and after doing your best to install the engine, using duct tape, honey, and twist ties from packages of hot dog rolls, that darn car just will not start! What's the problem? You have no idea.

You might not be a very good mechanic, but you might be Brian Sabean. The Giants have a ridiculous starting rotation, anchored by Lincecum, perhaps the leading candidate for best starting pitcher of the teens, Cain, one of the best number twos around, one of the best prospects around in Bumgarner, and the interesting Sanchez. Sure, Zito's overpaid, but if he's your 5th starter, your rotation's probably pretty good.

The offense is not, mainly consisting of Sandoval and the Seven Dwarves. A team mediocre everywhere and a playoff-ready rotation just screams to overpay for an actual slugger, but Mark DeRosa appears to have been the big target, though the…

Cardinals - Signed Holliday

A big one and a big risk. The latter isn't because of any ability foibles but simply because the Cardinals absolutely must sign Pujols as well. Now, the team isn't cheap, but with $40 million (at least) tied up in 2 players, the organization is going to have to start developing more players that usual in-house and even more Dave Duncan Specials, because this will make it harder to bring in Lohses and Pennies for $10 million per. On the plus side, there is at least some cost certainty in a lot of places, with Wainwright and Carpenter locked up for the next few years, but the team's going to have to eventually choose one (I'd choose the former, given their ages and injury histories).

No doubt comparisons will be made between the Bay and Holliday signings, but honestly, I feel (and ZiPS agrees) that Holliday's a better player. If you give Bay a break on his defensive stats because of Fenway, he's still likely 10 runs or so below-average and if you knock off 5 of Holliday's combined UZR/RTZ/Dial range numbers of recent years because you…

2010 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

Don't get me wrong, the team isn't devoid of talent and if a few of the starting prospects stepping forward could make the Indians competitive fairly soon. It's a weak division and while the team has similar issues to the Orioles (but slightly worse), there's no juggernaut in the Central to worry about, let alone two.

Do remember, however, that some of the team's best pitching prospects aren't projected because they are still pretty far away. If one or two of Jason Knapp, Nick Hagadone, and Alex White pan out, the situation starts to look a little less bleak. The team can hardly be counting on Scott Lewis or…

Mets - Signed Bengie

Unfortunately for the Mets, there aren't a lot of great options out there for a team wanting a solid catcher for a few years. Statheads love Josh Thole, but his defense needs work and he has absolutely no power and he is pretty much the only slightly palatable option for the Mets. Bengie Molina is unlikely to be very good, but when your team plays Omir Santos on purpose, he represents a decent stopgap. Don't expect too much from Molina - he's still a 35-year-old catcher in lousy shape coming off an 86 OPS+.

No dollar figures released, but it's presumably not a figure large enough that it will prevent the Mets from doing what they absolutely have to - grabbing the last bits of good pitching on the market as if their lives depended on it (because they do).

ZiPS Projection - Bengie Molina (C)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010         444  43 116  22   1  16   88  16  52   0 .261 .290 .423   88      
2011         413  39 106  19   1  14   82  14  49   0 .257…

Giants - Signed DeRosa

DeRosa's extremely useful, but he *is* at an age when players that are extremely useful have a tendency to suddenly become very less so.

DeRosa's one of the best Plan B players around, being able to fill-in admirably anywhere but SS, C, and CF and be a plus. He's not really good enough offensively or defensively to be a solid starter anywhere logical for the Giants, assuming they don't make the short-sighted move of giving up on Kung Fu Panda at the hot corner. And the big problem for the Giants is most of the Plan As aren't very good. This is a team that lost their cleanup hitter offseason and even worse, that cleanup hitter was Bengie Molina.

None of that is DeRosa's fault, of course. He's a suitable stopgap anywhere, but the Giants have most of a lineup of a suitable stopgaps.

ZiPS Projection - Mark DeRosa (3B)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+   DEF
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010         433  63 118  24   2  14   73  44  88   2 .273 .345 .434   104    AV
2011         401  57 108…

Mets - Signed Bay

This contract comes with an option for a 5th season.

This is a pretty good signing for the Mets, but with a few caveats. The team and the fans have to remember that while they're getting a solid player in Bay, he's not a superstar. The Mets needed a bat like Bay's, but he's not one of the best hitters in the league and his defense leaves much to be desired. Fenway and LF always seems to be an ongoing issue for defensive statistics, but Bay had a UZR of -12 in his last full year in Pittsburgh, so it's not a stretch to say he's a significantly below-average defensive player.

The Mets really have to get what pitching they can at this point. The problems with the team are such that even adding a needed bat in left doesn't make the job done. To use a poker term, the Mets are "pot committed" after this signing. The team was at a crossroads, with too much talent to rebuild and perhaps not good enough to win the division, so if the team is going for it, they…

2010 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

The M's aren't a perfect team, however, so one can't count the Angels out. Seattle has an impressive defense, but the team really misses that one big bat in the middle of the lineup. Bradley has an amazing 2008 season with the Rangers, but he can hardly be counted on to repeat that in 2010, even if he's a model citizen. Another big bullpen arm would also be a huge bonus, but at this point, the M's look like a team that'll finish 1st in ERA (which they did without Cliff Lee), 10th-12th in runs scored, and hope to edge out the Angels or sneak a Wild Card spot with 92-95 wins or so.

However, the winter isn't done yet and while the Mariners don't appear to be one of Jason Bay's super-secret suitors, they could still make a move for a big bat. Nothing's been rumored, but the Mariners landing Cliff Lee came out of nowhere.

Even if the Mariners don't make the playoffs,…

Nationals - Signed Marquis

I'm pretty gobsmacked. If you told me a month ago, after Marquis won 16 games, was named an All-Star, and had numerous puff pieces about his legendary streak of playoff appearances, that Marquis would only sign for 2/15, I would have thought you were nuts. But that's what happened.

Marquis is the best kind of the inning-eater species. With the exception of one season, Marquis is always pretty healthy and always a bit above-average and this is something the Nationals are desperate for. Suddenly, the 2010 rotation has one less gaping hole and assuming some luck with Strasburg and a successful recovery from Zimmermann, the Nats suddenly have a pretty decent 2011 rotation.

The Nats still have a lot of work to do, but they might stop being in contention for one of the top draft picks in the near future.

ZiPS Projection - Jason Marquis
-----------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2010       11  12  30  30 184.2 195   89  16  65  87  4.34   101    
2011       11  12  29  29 178.1 190   88  15  66  89  4.44    97      
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Blue Jays - Acquired Morrow

Challenge trade! Two pitchers with talent and good reason to think they'll be better than they were in 2009 swap places. Brandon Morrow's the more valuable player, assuming he starts and doesn't blow a gasket about it, with Chavez being the quiet throw-in. Chavez is years away and needs to cut down his swing somewhat, but he took a big step forward in the power department and he's worth watching in 2010.

If he's a starter, Morrow will be a big plus to Toronto's depleted rotation (thanks to the Halladay trade and what I assume to be the abduction murders of Marcum, Litsch, and McGowan) and League gives the Mariners an explosive bullpen arm that they really need. Honestly, this is a solid trade for both sides, with each team getting a pitcher that's more use to them than the other guy (I like Morrow more than the projection).

2010 ZiPS Projections
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Player      W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
League      4   3  58   0  67.2  66   30   7  24  56   3.99 112 
Morrow…

A’s - Signed Crisp

2010 ZiPS Projections  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  OPS+
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crisp        327  43   81  14  4   6  27  35  56  18  .248  .320  .370   85 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Angels - Signed Rodney

This kind of reminds me of the climactic scene from the movie Spartacus. Unwilling to point out which GM is Ed Wade, Tony Reagins bravely stands up, shouts "I am Ed Wade!" and signs a significantly inferior pitcher to a similar contract.

Brendan Donnelly
Mike Fyrhie
Kevin Gregg
Alan Levine
Joel Peralta
Mark Petkovsek
Lou Pote
Francisco Rodriguez
Scot Shields
Ben Weber
Matt Wise

Remember when the Angels could assemble most of a bullpen for a couple of million a year through scrapheap pickups and in-house development?

When it comes down to it, Rodney's essentially a serviceable reliever, whose impressive fastball is surpassed only by an impressive lack of command. I imagine there will be a lot of 8th innings in which Angel fans channel George Stallings. Given that Octavio Dotel, a superior pitcher to Rodney, is expected to sign a 1-year, $3 million contract with the Pirates, the former should think about hiring the latter's agent.

ZiPS Projection - Fernando Rodney
-----------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2010        4   3  56   0  57.2  53   28   6  34  56…

Mariners - Acquired Bradley

When someone points a gun at your child and demands your wallet, you're forced to do it. When you're found guilty of a crime and sentenced to prison you're forced to do it.

When a baseball player has problems with the team in the midst of a disastrous season, you're not forced to trade him. There's nothing in the Chicago-Bradley that couldn't have been repaired with a 6 month offseason cooldown period and the Cubs playing better baseball in 2010. One could say that the Cubs are saving money because they considered Bradley a sunk cost, but there was no reason to consider him as such. Baseball management likes to take shots at cold, unfeeling robot statheads, but for all the rhetoric, if you can't find a way to come to terms with Bradley, a player who can help your team, all your vaunted people skills are for nothing. If my $12K car needs a $1K transmission repair, the annoyance of having the transmission repair doesn't make the car worthless and if I give it up for nothing, I'm stupid, not responsible.

What…

A’s - Acquired Taylor

Can the A's ever resist trying to get a finger in every big blockbuster? It must have killed Billy Beane to not have wormed his way into the Granderson blockbuster.

The Blue Jays should be a little concerned about how quickly the A's traded Wallace. The A's have third basemen on the roster with so many injury problems that they could have bankrupted a single-payer health system by themselves and the team is going to happily give up someone with experience at the hot corner that all his ligaments and bones?

The Jays do plan on using Wallace at first (bye bye Overbay), but Wallace is not a finished prospect at this point and I don't think he's ready for the offensive demands. An .822 OPS in the minors for a more polished college hitter is, in fact, a bit worrisome.

Taylor, all in all, is a more polished player and more likely to have a career in the majors. His long-term defensive potential is uncertain (Taylor is an impressive physical specimen), but he's already shown he can terrorize minor league pitching while Wallace has…

Mariners - Acquired Lee

One can't help but be a little disappointed with the package the Phillies get here. There are some quality players here, but when trading one of the best starters in baseball, with very little concern baggage, you really want to get a player that will cause the GM to lose a little sleep at night. The Jays didn't do the best job they could, but Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek are those types of players (even if the A's had to get involved and snag one of them). In this case, there's nobody like that, here. Gillies could be a really solid player, but Jack Zduriencik can shrug and say "He was a California Leaguer who was years away and we can beat the Angels right now." "Closer prospect with solid stuff but won't ever give us 200 All-Star innings." "A-ball starter who won't be here for a few years."

Maybe this is the best that the Phillies could get for Cliff Lee. But why the rush? Lee has become one of the best pitchers around and is due…

Phillies - Acquired Halladay

As big as the whole Halladay schmozz was, it wasn't really a multi-team trade, but several traditional trades happening at the same time. That makes it a litlte easier to tackle these one at a time.

It's hard to complain about getting Roy Halladay. They Phillies did trade some excellent prospects here, with Taylor ready to be a contributor now, but they do get some certainty and a very reasonable contract with Halladay and didn't have to give up Dom Brown. Lee did very well with the Phillies, but I rather have Halladay and I much rather have Halladay when given the contract considerations involved. With the Jays kicking in $6 million for some strange reason and the Phils signing Halladay to a 3-year, $60 million extension, the latter has essentially given Halladay a 4-year, $69 million contract, extremely reasonable in length and amount for the price of having a lower group of prospects. There's simply no way Cliff Lee would sign a 4-year, $69 million contract and given the attrition rate of pitchers, the length of a…

Minor Correction - Florida ZiPS entry

Thanks for those that tried to name the opera/story I was thinking of but couldn’t remember.  I hadn’t thought to look at the “Cultural References” on the Spanish Inquisition Wiki page until now.  The opera was Il prigioniero by Luigi Dallapiccola off a story by Auguste Villiers de l’Isle-Adam .