2008 ZiPS Projections, Final Spreadsheet

The title is pretty explanatory. 

2008 ZiPS Projections for Microsoft Excel

The White Sox are officially my least favorite team for 2008 for forcing me to slap some crap together to try and project Alexei Ramirez.  The Reds are the runner-up for making it so I have to project a reliever who hasn’t been active since 2004.

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

The Indians are now at the crossroads. With Sabathia gone, Hafner's career going the wrong way this year, and Carmona being injured (hip) and going and flip-flopping his 2/1 K/BB ratio, the Indians no longer have the luxury of more or less standing pat. At this point, the team simply doesn't have enough "now" talent to compete in 2009 and probably not enough "later" talent to compete in 2011. It'll probably be another year before Matt LaPorta is ready to be a real plus in the majors and a couple more for Mills and others. Yet the team has holes that need to be filled now if they are to compete in 2009.

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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

EXCELLENT
Victor Martinez#         c   30  .293  .366  .447 115 430  56 126 27  0 13  66  48  59  0  0  113  Av 

VERY GOOD
Kelly Shoppach           c   29  .246  .322  .465  93 284  45  70 20  0 14  50  27 102  0  0  105  Av 

FAIR
Chris Gimenez            c   26  .237  .318  .380 107 376  49  89 18  0 12  50  38  88  1  3…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

I can't believe I'm going to say it, but Brian Sabean has actually done a pretty good job in the last year. Although I still think the Rowand signing is a bad idea and the offense is still terrible, the team has a lot of interesting arms and a few offensive prospects that are pretty promising.

As I see it, Sabean's main challenges are:

- Sorting out the positional logjams. Sandoval's got a strong arm and is a much better athlete than he looks like - he can do a little more than fake 3B, though he's raw and unlikely to ever be strong there. He can handle the tools of ignorance too, but Posey's coming up behind him. 1B is likely where Villalona will end up, too. I'd probably give Sandoval first shot at 3B until he proves he can't handle it. The Giants also need to see what they can do with the Lewis/Rowand/Winn outfield - all 3 could be playing center for other teams and it's one of the few organizational surpluses at the MLB level. I'd certainly try to trade Winn at least.

- Thinning out the Ortmeier Cloud. The Giants have about a million positional players…

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Braves - Claimed O’Flaherty

Atlanta Braves - Claimed P Eric O'Flaherty off waivers from the Seattle Mariners.

O'Flaherty was wretched this year - 16 hits in 6 2/3 innings was all it took for him to go from being an important member of the bullpen to pitching for Tacoma. He injured his back before the All-Star Break and that ended his season.

This was a good move by the Braves and a poor one by the Mariners. Terrible year aside, the Mariners still have some easy dead weight on the 40-man roster after adding the players they needed to protect from Rule 5. Unless you have an incredibly deep 40-man roster, you probably have room for a 23-year-old lefty with a 90 MPH fastball and some success (though limited) at the MLB level. I mean, is Zduriencik hanging onto Sean White just in case he got him confused with Sean Green? Does Randy Messenger make great pancakes or something? Are 37-year-old 3rd string catchers the new market inefficiency?

2009 ZiPS Projection - Eric O'Flaherty
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            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
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Projection  2   3  45   0   55   60   29   4  24  38  4.75    91 
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Top Comps:  The…

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Royals - Acquired Crisp

Kansas City Royals - Acquired CF Coco Crisp from the Boston for P Ramon Ramirez

While I appreciate the fact that Dayton Moore is willing to trade reliever at the height of their value, but this is kind of puzzling.

The Royals, a team that has a lot of needs, has had this organizational obsession with making one of their best players, David DeJesus, much less valuable to the team. While Moore has done a reasonable job on a pure value-for-value standpoint, he's yet to do another important task of GMs. Put most simply, a GM should be able to identify organizational strengths and utilize those strengths as much as possible. The Royals have not been a team overflowing with organizational strengths in recent years, but one of them has been DeJesus. As a centerfielder, he's one of the better defensive centerfielders in the league and hits enough that he's a borderline star as a centerfielder. Moving him to left dilutes his strengths. DeJesus isn't a valueless player in left, but as a leftfielder, the value his glove can bring to the team is diminished and his offense becomes merely adequate. Simply put, DeJesus is not an organizational strength as a…

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Cubs - Signed Dempster

Chicago Cubs - Signed P Ryan Dempster to a 4-year contract.

The signing still isn't official and the contractual terms haven't been reported other than something in the $12-$14 million a year range.

If you told me a year ago that the Cubs would do this and I wouldn't burst out in hysterical laughter, I'd think that the Earth was sucked into some creepy Through the Looking Glass world in which I have to watch out for the Jabberwocky and the Lion and the Unicorn sit around eating cake and the Walrus and the Carpenter eat sentient talking clams and Ryan "The Dumpster" Dempster is a good starting pitcher.

I don't quite know how he did it other than throwing a few more fastballs than usual, but Dempster did it, kept the ball in the park, and was an important part of the team, helping replace Rich Hill, who suddenly had trouble keeping his pitches within the same congressional district as the mound. The Cubs are probably overpaying a bit on a pure value standpoint, but as one of the best teams in the NL, it makes sense to overpay a little to keep October games on the schedule, especially with…

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Giants - Signed Affeldt

San Francisco Giants - Signed P Jeremy Affeldt to a 2-year contract.

The terms are undisclosed, but I'm guessing that the total value of the contract is in the $7-$10 million range.

I hate to be complimentary towards Brian Sabean, but now that the team's actually trying actually trying to rebuild, they could compete in a very weak division in the near future and Affeldt is a solid building block in a bullpen that doesn't really have a few dominant relievers that they can rely on heavily. Affeldt's low ERA isn't a product of being a LOOGY either, as Affeldt has always been able to get righties out as easily as lefties during his major league career, though admittedly, some years, he didn't get either batter out.

Affeldt's now had two full seasons in a row as a full-time reliever with no March ambiguity as to his role on the pitching staff. He throws his effective curve a lot more than he used to and it's done nothing but help his very good, but not great, fastball. I expect Affeldt to continue to be good and probably the best member of the Giants bullpen.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Jeremy Affeldt
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2009 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier combined to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, which reflects well on Ned Colletti, even if he put as many barriers in front of the latter playing as possible. The real challenge for Colletti is this offseason, with two of the most important pitchers he inherited, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, both gone and a infield that isn't championship quality. The team was apparently short on cash this season, but a lot of contracts come off the books and Colletti will still have more money to play with than any other team in the division. However, if his starter and infield signings turn out as badly as the Pierre and Jones signings in the outfield, Colletti's fortunes could change very quickly. The team also needs to jettison the Martin-to-3B idea - with the Dodgers' spare catching prospect an All-Star playing for Tampa Bay, actually resting Martin once in a while might be the better idea.

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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS RNG 

EXCELLENT
Russell Martin           c   26  .281  .374  .430 154 540  85 152 31  2 15  72  76  82 16…

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Yankees - Acquired Swisher

New York Yankees - Acquired OF Nick Swisher and P Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for P Jeff Marquez, IF Wilson Betemit and P Jhonny Nunez.

Given how far Swisher's stock has fallen, he must be holding a lot of toxic mortgage-backed securities.

While it's tempting to bash Kenny Williams for getting so little for Swisher, that's more Swisher's fault than KW's. Yes, he hit with his usual power and walks, but you have to be a secondary monster to be valuable hitting .219. "Sure, he hit .219, but he's less awful than most guys that hit .219!" won't convince anyone to part with much value. Maybe Ed Wade if Swisher announced he wanted to move to the bullpen.

The main problem with the Yankees taking a flyer on Swisher, which might be a good idea for a lot of teams, is that the Yankees could use help in center if they've soured on Melky and Swisher probably shouldn't be in center. Sure, it would remind Yankee fans of Bernie Williams Comedy Central-Field Yukathon, but that shouldn't be the goal.

It's not much of a haul. Marquez is still young enough to have a career, but he was bad…

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The Oddsinator aka the Doubly Stochastic Matrix of Doom

No, I haven't come up with an actual name yet, but I wanted to say a few words on the new formatting for my individual player projections in order to stem off any confusion that might result from my general assumption that everybody knows exactly what I'm talking about without me having to explain. And no, there are no Markov chains involved, I just like the sound of it.

Why did I change it? I don't feel that optimistic and pessimistic lines were communicating as much information about a player's projection as they could - they were simply saying that players have really good seasons sometimes and really bad ones sometimes, which you don't need a line to figure out. I feel this way conveys probabilities of players accomplishing certain things without having to print a 5 page series of lines.

First, let's look at the pitchers, using Damaso Marte as an example (I just changed the formatting slightly from what was posted due to some confusion).

ERA+      %
Top 1/3  64
Mid 1/3  28
Bot 1/3   8

This compares Marte to the usual population of pitchers with 30 or more innings pitched (for starters, I use 100 as the cutoff).…

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Cubs - Acquired Gregg

Chicago Cubs - Acquired P Kevin Gregg from the Florida Marlins for P Jose Ceda

Gregg's closed the last few years, but that's mainly because of the state of the Marlins. He's not as good as Wood or Marmol, so can't really make up for a Wood departure, but he's a really solid reliever and will be a very good setup guy next year. Ceda could very well come back to haunt the Cubs, however. He's a physically imposing pitcher with an excellent fastball/slider and has pitched very well in the minors when used as reliever (where he is for good), and while he could blow out his arm tomorrow, he could storm into the league very soon.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Kevin Gregg
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            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
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2009        6   4  68   0   70   58   27   5  33  63  3.47   132
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Top Comps:  Roy Lee Jackson, Felix Rodriguez

ERA     %
66th    53
50th    81
33rd    90

ERA+    %     
>150    35    
>140    44    
>130    56    
>120    68    
>110    79    
>100    89    
>90     95
>80     99
>70     100     

2009 ZiPS Projection - Jose Ceda
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            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER…

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Yanks - Signed Marte

New York Yankees - Signed P Damaso Marte to a 3-year contract.

The guaranteed portion is $12 million, consisting of $3.75 million in 2009, $4 million in 2010 and 2011, with a $250,000 buyout for 2012 or the $4 million option. All told this is a pretty reasonable price, especially for the Yankees who can overpay a little as they should be rolling in even more cash than ever soon, even with a down economy. Marte's ERA had a bit of an uptick, but his peripheral numbers were the same and he should be fine as long as he's healthy, the standard caveat for any person who makes his living throwing a baseball. Barring a transaction we don't know about yet, Marte will be the top bullpen lefty for the Yankees. This might help Phil Coke as well, as the Yankees might be less worried about him with Marte available.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Damaso Marte
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            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
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2009        4   2  71   0   58   47   21   4  26  64  3.26   138 
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Top Comps:  Dennis Cook, Tippy Martinez

ERA     %
66th    47
50th    76
33rd    86

ERA+    %       BB/9…

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Giants - Siigned Phelps

San Franciso Giants - Signed 1B Josh Phelps to a minor-league contract.

Josh Phelps is a pretty good example of how important timing can be. The Kevin Reimer/Dante Bichette trade cost the former and earned the latter millions of dollars. David Ortiz might have ended up as a "poor defensive malcontent AAAA slugger" if Jeremy Giambi's shoulder had been in better condition.

In Phelps's case, he left the Indians before he could have replaced an injured Travis Hafner, the Rays before they decided to give a 1B shot to a solid non-roster invitee in Carlos Pena, played for the Yankees while Jason Giambi was healthy, and then played for a non-DH team with the best 1B in baseball. The Giants are the best situation Phelps has been in for playing-time since he was in Toronto and sadly, he's not the hitter he once was and the Giants have no business giving him a full-time job at 1st when they need to be looking at the younger options like Ishikawa. Phelps, if he makes the team, will be a pinch-hitter, but he's not particularly good at that role.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Josh Phelps (1B)
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              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR…

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Nats - Acquired Willingham and Olsen

Washington Nationals - Acquired LF Josh Willingham and P Scott OlsenEmilio Bonifacio, P P.J. Dean, and 2B-OF Jake Smolinski

A very nice pickup for the Nationals. Willingham is no star and is a poor bet to age well long-term, but he's a good, average bat for a team that couldn't find any, as practically every National but Cristian Guzman underperformed offensively this season. Perhaps Guzman still played well because he's a see ball-hit ball player that Lenny Harris couldn't screw up? Olsen's been disappointing and a general pain in the ass, but he's also just going to be 25 for 2009.

The Nats don't give up too much. Bonifacio is unlikely to hit enough to ever be a starter. Dean's very young and has a solid fastball/curve/change, but he's yet to pitch in a full-season league and a lot of guys like that fall off the radar as they move to the higher-A leagues. Smolinski is generally athletic and has a strong arm, but he's injured a lot, doesn't really have a defensive position he really excels at, and has displayed very little power so far. Dean in particular could come back to the haunt the Nats, but the odds are…

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A’s - Acquired Holliday

Oakland A's - Acquired LF Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies for (reportedly), Huston Street, Greg Smith, and Carlos Gonzalez

OK, everyone who saw this move coming, raise your hand. Liars. I won't even make any jokes about this one coming out of leftfield. Dammit.

Suffice it to say, this was quite the unexpected move on the part of the A's. Holliday being traded is no surprise, but his destination certainly has to be, with the Beane-led A's in complete rebuilding mode and Holliday being a free agent after next season.

With both Holliday and Street, I don't think we can be certain that they've reached their final destinations. However, I go with what I have, so I'll make the assumptions that they're staying on their new teams.

Holliday's an excellent player, though not quite as good as his raw numbers indicate. The fact that people shouldn't just look at a Colorado players road stats has already been talked about ad infinitum in the other BTF thread on the Holliday trade, but I do want to mention that, when developing ZiPS some years back, I specifically took a look at whether knowing a player's actual home/road splits increased the predictability you…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

For the third year in a row, the Diamondback offense was rather lackluster, but this time around, Pythagoras caught up with the team and they went from outperforming their RS/RA by 11 games to hitting the figure right on the nose.

Eric Byrnes did no favor to the Diamondbacks this season, playing terribly and eventually tearing his hamstring, thus ending any hopes of Arizona being able to sell high before the salary increase to $11 million kicks in for 2009. Now the team is faced with paying $11 million to an easily replaceable player that could have been used for a more important purpose like bringing Orlando Hudson back. Overpaying to bring back a popular, mediocre player might be fun when you're coming off a 90-win playoff season, but like binge drinking, it becomes a lot less enjoyable in the morning.

The Diamondbacks have a great top 3 rotation and some solid position players, but they really need to add an impact hitter (and if Byrnes becomes a 4th outfielder, so be it), shore up the infield, and another solid relief arm or two. Luckily for Arizona, they're in the same division as Colorado and San Francisco, San Diego's going to…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs

A second disappointing first-round sweep in the playoffs aside, I still maintain that the Cubs are the best team in the National League. With no gaping holes on either side of the ball, good depth in a lot of places, and the willingness to spend money if need be, I expect the Cubs to once again be one of the best teams in the league. While they were fortunate in some instances, such as Ryan Theriot putting up an easy career-best season, there were also a number of disappointments to balance out the equation, from Hill's strange command issues to Fukudome's unfortunate lack of power (from a HR every 20 at-bats in Japan to a HR in every 50 AB in the US. Samardzija is probably the most interesting projection to watch as he an extremely odd season, going from not being able to do much with AA hitters and then mowing down MLB hitters, so while I wouldn't be surprised if his projection was accurate, I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if it wasn't horrifically wrong. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS CThr 

EXCELLENT
Geovany…

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Royals - Acquired Jacobs

Kansas City Royals - Acquired 1B Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins for P Leo Nunez. From a pure value-for-value standpoint, Mike Jacobs is worth giving up Leo Nunez, who isn't really a 143 ERA+ reliever. However, I just don't see it as a good move for this team in particular team. The team does improve going from Ross Gload to Jacobs (you have to feel for Gload, finally getting real shots on the far slope of his career), but the Royals aren't a serious contender in 2009. A rebuilding team always has questions that it seeks to answer and a lot of the questions the Royals have involve the 1B/DH position. It gets even more crowded if Alex Gordon continues to develop as a hitter but plays as poorly defensively at third as he did this season. Sure, in theory, they could flip Mike Jacobs later on, but Jacobs also happens to be a very limited defensive platoon 1B and if he could be flipped for something more valuable than Leo Nunez, the Marlins probably would have done it.

The Marlins will probably have the 1B spot fairly wide open in the spring training, with Cantu/McPherson/Sanchez and probably a few…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

While the Cardinals disappointed after the All-Star Break, playing only .500 ball and dropping from a strong 2nd place contender in the NL Central to a very slight 4th behind the Astros, I don't think I'd characterize the season as a failure. The expectations weren't that high and they got several players on the cheap (Ryan Ludwick and Kyle Lohse obviously, but Todd Wellemeyer also was a contributor) that turned out to be keepers. Of course, Lohse isn't cheap any more...

A lot depends on Chris Carpenter. If resting this offseason is really enough to cure the nerve damage in his shoulder, the Cards, all caveats about future offseason moves noted, should be one of the top wild card contenders with the Brewers having great challenges at the top of the rotation and the Astros having serious depth issues and not a lot of flexibility. I don't expect them to be in the Sabathia hunt, but the team's not deep enough to lose Looper and not replace him with another mid-rotation guy. Sheets and Burnett might be out of the question, as I believe the losers in the Sabathia bidding are likely to throw money at the best starters left, but…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

The Sabathia trade paid off very nicely in the short-term for the Brewers. While it's obviously disappointing that the Phillies proceeded to eliminate the Brewers in 4 games, the Brewers should still be proud of the season they had.

The Brewers have a few challenges this offseason, but the offense shouldn't be one of them. Fielder and Braun are two of the best young players in the game, Hardy took another step forward to that tier below Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez, and while both were a bit disappointing, both Weeks and Hart are important contributors.

Replacing Sabathia and Sheets, on the other hand, is a major challenge. If there ever was a time for the team to seriously open up their wallet, it's now, with both crucial for the rotation. I like a healthy Yovani Gallardo a lot, but it's too much to ask him to replace one of the top two starters. Milwaukee's best chance to bring one back is probably Ben Sheets - with a few huge names on the starting market, perhaps the injury risk will cause him to fall under the radar a bit.

I'm trying out a new report format (explanation down at the bottom), so any…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

Not exactly the year the Braves had in mind. Competitive in the division until the end of May, the Braves went 45-68 after being only a game out of first in the NL East on May 24. With Glavine being ineffective and out with elbow problems, General Zod being essentially done after April, and James being unable to hit the broadside of Jim Bowden's sense of self-satisfaction with any pitch, there just wasn't enough pitching depth to compete. Even Tim Hudson, normally a quite durable pitcher, went on the shelf and didn't make it too far in the 2nd half.

The Braves have an offense that can compete, though it's a bit fragile and a little shallow in the outfield. The rotation will continue to be a problem, with the careers of Glavine and Smoltz both very much in the air and Hudson out for most of 2009 from his Tommy John surgery. Jair Jurrjens really came through for the team this year but the top of the rotation will remain quite thin. Either Parr or Hanson could surprise and be contributors, but I don't know if it'll be 2009 and I'm fairly sure it wouldn't be enough to replace what…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays led the AL in ERA this season and almost all of that staff is guaranteed to be back next year, but the offense has a lot of work to do. None of the hitters are actually terrible per se, but there just haven't been a lot of pleasant surprises for the team. Like the Angels, the Jays are a team that really needs to take advantage of one of the best free agent crops in recent seasons and if they can't do that, they can't be in the hunt for the playoffs and they need to clean house and rebuild. This isn't the NL West and striving to win 86 games and complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox won't get the Jays into October. When the Orioles are being more decisive about organizational direction than your team is, you need to take a long, hard look at your short and long-term goals and I don't think Ricciardi's shown that he does anything but fly by the seat of his pants.

Nothing illustrates the Jays problem than Matt Watson, who's always had the potential to be a good 4th outfielder, being 2nd on the below list.

Name                     P  Age…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Oakland Athletics

Make no mistake about it, the A's aren't doing a quick rebuild. There's little chance of competing with the Angels in 2009 unless the team's fortunate in some of the young hitters really stepping up, like Carlos Gonzalez. Daric Barton probably needs to spend some time in the minors as there's a difference between being disciplined and simply being too passive. Cust can get away with it since he has a lot more power, but Barton has to be more like Mark Grace. If enough breaks right for the team, they could win 80 games, but a number in the 70s is more likely depending on what Beane does in the offseason.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Jack Cust*               dh  30  .246  .387  .471 136 435  66 107 20  0 26  78 100 160  0  1 
Frank Thomas             dh  41  .260  .362  .402  86 296  31  77 12  0 10  41  44  50  0  0 
AVERAGE 1B/DH ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Travis Buck*             rf  24  .252  .335  .403  85 318  40  80 18  3  8  39  36  71  4  1
AVERAGE 3B --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Eric Chavez*…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

Unfortunately, 86 wins while being outscored may very well be the high-water mark for this incarnation of the Astros, with the last few crumbs of the farm system being traded for Miguel Tejada, who was disappointingly average this season. The Astros were the oldest team in the NL in 2008, with the hitters being a nearly full year older on average than the second-oldest offense (the Padres). The Cubs emerging as a truly solid team further complicates the matter for the Astros as there's less chance of being able to pop in for a division crown with 84 wins in the Central. The Astros have enough players at the top that they can compete in 2009 with some luck, but the team needs to go aggressively after a starting pitcher (and I don't mean a Brian Moehler). Depth emerged as a serious issue every time something went wrong this year and there's not a lot to be found in the minors, meaning that they'll also have to buy depth, which isn't exactly the most cost-effective.

As of now (which is obviously extremely early), I'll put the Astros in the 77-81 win range for 2009.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels

One can say the Angels had a fortunate season in 2008 and still had a good team. The hardest challenge the Angels have this offseason is how to upgrade an offense that has entrenched mediocrity in several places rather than a few gaping Willy Taveras-type holes. Looking at OPS+ relative to league average for position (from B-R, of course):

Po    sOPS+
1B    109
CF    109
C     105
RF    103
DH     99
SS     92
2B     87
LF     82
3B     69

LF and 3B were clearly the biggest problems for the team this year (2B will be better next season). Luckily for the Angels, the division should still be rather weak, they are willing to invest in top players, and it's a much better FA crop than the last few offseasons, so I don't mean to sound doom and gloom.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Mark Teixeira#           1b  29  .292  .390  .517 144 545  91 159 37  1 28 103  83 103  2  0 
Vladimir Guerrero        rf  33  .305  .372  .504 143 548  81 167 33  2 24  97  54  69  6  2 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---------------------------------------------------------------- 
Mike Napoli…

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2008 Minor League Translations

2008 zMLE Spreadsheet

Everyone from AAA down through Short-Season low-A leagues are included, hitting and pitching. Fielding is to follow as I'm working on a rudimentary ZR with hit-by-location data from the amazing Jeff Sackmann. I've updated my model since last offseason to eliminate a lot of the linearity in the standard translation models.

2008 Minor League Park Multipliers

Thanks to data provided me from Jeff Sackmann of Minor League Splits, I can now present the 2008 Minor League park multipliers for all regular full-season leagues and the two advanced short-season leagues. Data is presented on a per/PA basis. FirstInning.com has per/BIP basis covered already.

2008 Multipliers are, not suprisingly, the multipliers for the 2008 season. As I remind every years, when I use the term "multiplier" I'm already taking into account road games, so the number does not have to sent hurdling halfway to 1.00 in order to apply to various minor league stats. 3-year data is weighted on a 4-3-2 basis, with the most recent season being 4. Because of the error present in 1-year park data, 3-year numbers for teams in parks that did not exist in previous seasons are regressed towards 1.00. So, for instance, the 3-year run multiplier for the Lehigh Valley TrademarkDiluters will be closer to 1.00 than the 2008 data.

2008

                         R       H      2B      HR      BB       K
Aberdeen              0.98    0.99    0.97    1.13    1.04    1.03
Akron                 1.00    1.00    1.00    0.88    1.00    0.97
Albuquerque           1.18    1.13    1.08    1.14    0.91    0.94
Altoona               0.95    1.01    0.96    0.88    0.99    0.95
Arkansas              0.93    0.97    0.93    0.88    0.96    0.98
Asheville…

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Diamondbacks - Acquired Dunn

Arizona Diamondbacks - Acquired OF Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds for P Dallas Buck and two players to be named.

It's hard to give a final grade to this trade until we know who the players named after the season will be.

However, I'll give this trade a thumbs-up for Arizona for the time being in the expectation that the players to be named don't include names like Jarrod Parker and someone like Brooks Brown would be about as high quality as they would go here.

Dunn isn't quite the hitter Manny Ramirez is, but the Diamondbacks are apparently giving up a good deal less (so little, in fact, you have to wonder about the PTBNL or Walt Jocketty would just take the draft picks) and aren't shackled with big-ticket failures like Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones that they would feel obligated to play in order not to make them cry. Well, there's Eric Byrnes, but he's happily unavailable. We might see Mark Reynolds at 2nd now, which won't improve the defense, but there aren't a lot of other options - no way to get Brian Roberts at this point.

While at first glance I think this is a wretched…

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Retro-Translations - 1983

Some highlights:

Ken Phelps, Salt Lake - 270/357/598
Wally Backman, Tidewater - 275/351/317
Andy van Slyke, Louisville - 313/369/454
Kevin McReynolds, Las Vegas - 303/344/541
Billy Beane, Jackson - 218/250/299
Billy Jo Robidoux, Beloit - 239/297/320

Dwight Gooden, Lynchburg - 4.28 ERA (dropped his walk rate nearly in half going from high-A to the NL!)
Bret Saberhagen, Fort Myers - 3.40 ERA, 106 IP
Jose Rijo, Ft. Lauderdale - 12-8, 3.81
Zane Smith, Durham - 7-17, 6.70 (not a stunning full-season debut)
Bill Wegman, Stockton - 15-6, 2.93 (injured, 16 starts next 2 seasons combined)

Minor League Translations (zMLE), 1983

Red Sox - May or May Not Have Acquired Bay

Boston Red Sox - Engaged in a big 3-way trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates that's too long to describe in a single line.

OK, let's take it one-by-one. Assuming of course, this one is correct. After wacky back-and-forth rumorings-a-transpiring, I don't know what to believe anymore.

The Pirates trade Jason Bay and get Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen. I like this package better than the Brignac deal. They improve the outfield depth and get LaRoche, who, when completely healthy, is a more completed prospect than Brignac is, although not a shortstop. Like I said in the previous Bay trade entry, it's the kind of thing the Pirates do need to do, even if Bonifay and Littlefield were too incompetent to build a team properly. LaRoche has been tentative since coming back, but hopefully that'll be ironed out for '09. Morris-and-Hansen both have issues to work out in the minors, but they're about as good as Niemann.

The Dodgers give up LaRoche and Morris for Manny Ramirez. They should've taken Bay, who I'm not convinced is, at this point in their careers, any lesser a player than Manny when defense is included, and he's…

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