2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9, Final

This is the final 2009 build of the ZiPS projection disk for Diamond Mind Baseball. You can download it here.

The disk contains all known fixes to-date, with a very few new projections (Walter Silva, Chris Duffy, a couple of others). The disk contains "compromise" rosters in that the rosters are all 25-man but they represent the "average" expectation of what the roster will look like for the rest of the year. This is because DMB does not have an auto-manager, so things like A-Rod and 3/5 of the Angels rotation coming back would not be represented in a pure opening day build but are important events to their teams as the season goes on. For players in that situation, the playing time on the depth charts has been reduced to reflect the lower contributions. I do the same for players with teams playing the Arbitration Clock Game such as Matt Wieters and David Price.

There are a few additional cases that I had a great deal of problems wrestling with. The two most notable I can think of at the moment are what to do with Troy Glaus and Jeff Clement. I could not include Jeff Clement on the depth…

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2009 ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool

Should be pretty self-explanatory.

2009 ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool

2009 ZiPS In-Season Projections:  Pitchers through April 30

Same as the hitter spreadsheet, but for pitchers. All pitchers with at least 7 innings pitched are included, with the exception of a few players that I hadn't done a pre-season projection for (that didn't come up with the hitters). Those players will be in the end-of-May spreadsheet.

Spreadsheet for Excel 2003

Projected Full-Season Leaders

Wins
Halladay - 18
Santana - 18
Billingsley - 17

Losses
Olsen - 15
Silva - 14
Arroyo - 14

Innings
Halladay - 228.1
Santana - 225.2
Sabathia - 224.2

Hits Allowed
Cook - 233
Halladay - 228
Oswalt - 225

Homers Allowed
Arroyo - 32
Pitcher of Fail - 30
Hamels - 30

Walks Allowed
Jimenez - 109
Cabrera - 106
Volquez - 101

Strikeouts
Santana - 254
Lincecum - 247
Vazquez - 227

ERA
Santana - 2.87
Lincecum - 2.98
Haren - 3.09

2009, ZiPS In-Season Projections:  Hitters through April 28

This is the first build of what will be a monthly feature for hitters and pitchers, updated ZiPS projections that takes into account the changes in probability new data creates. I am also including full-season projections, which are the sum of to-date statistics and rest-of-season projections. Minimum 40 PA required for inclusion and no minor league data is considered.

Spreadsheet for Excel 2003

Projected Full-Season Leaders

Runs
Sizemore - 119
Bay - 119
Utley - 118

Hits
Reyes - 201
Cano - 196
Cabrera - 195

Doubles
Markakis - 52
Roberts - 46
Pedroia - 46

Triples
Reyes - 15
Granderson - 11
Crawford - 10

Home Runs
Howard - 47
Braun - 45
Fielder - 41

Runs Batted In
Pujols - 136
Howard - 133
Braun - 133

Walks
Dunn - 116
Bay - 104
Cust - 104

Strikeouts
Howard - 183
Reynols - 183
Davis - 178

Stolen Bases
Reyes - 58
Ellsbury - 53
Taveras - 45

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk Emergency Update

Sometimes, a final disk isn't quite a final disk.

Rod Miller has informed me of an extremely serious error in the final disk. I have Randy Johnson's splits reversed, causing him to be tougher against righties than lefties. I've uploaded a new copy of the final disk here which fixes this error. I've also fixed Madison Bumgarner's first name from Madixon to Madison, though that's a very small fix.

To leagues already running, please simply edit Randy Johnson's splits at the earliest possible convenience if you haven't noticed it already.

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0 and Excel Spreadsheet, Build 2 (UPDATED)

This build features a number of fixes and updates from the first build.

The Excel spreadsheet now has all teams listed and projections for all the players listed below.

The Diamond Mind disk features a number of small typo fixes and data entry errors, sorts players onto their teams, splits for a few more players. Since the first build, the following players have been added: Travis Blackley, Jose Marte, Kyler Newby, Cesar Valdez, Pedro Ciriaco, Todd Redmond, Marcus Mateo, Zach Kroenke, Gilbert de la Vara, Jeff Fulchino, Tyler Lumsden, Drew Sutton, Lee Gronkiewicz, John Rheinecker, Al Reyes, Akinori Otsuka, Clay Hensley, Matthew Buschmann, Brandon Medders, Mike Mussina, Andrew Sisco, Sean Smith, Chin-hui Tsao, Jason Windsor, Jason Anderson, Brandon Claussen, Anthony Ortega, Rafael Rodriguez, Jesus Castillo, Victor Garate, Brent Leach, Omar Aguilar, Eduardo Morlan, Alexander Periard, Ryan Webb, Jae-Kuk Ryu, Jesse English, Luis Perdomo, Charlie Manning, Chase Wright, Howie Clark, Javier Brito, Dan Johnson, Mike Carp, Jesus Guzman, Kala Kaaihue, Mark Trumbo, Reegie Corona, and Casey McGehee.

Projection Disk Build 1 Discussion
Spreadsheet Build 1 Discussion

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9c, Build 2
2009 ZiPS Projections for Excel 2003, Build 2

The next, final build, mainly for "real" season…

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2009 ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet First Build

2009 ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet, First Build - All players are projected to their current or, in the case of unemployed players, their most recent teams.

Player requests are always welcome, though I can't guarantee I'll fill every single one. I try to project players for whom there's a good basis to project. For example, Yonder Alonso, a frequently requested player, is one I can't do because there's little basis so far for a 2009 MLB projection. Unfortunately, I also can't do a projection for Mark Prior, who has pitched only a few games in 3 years.

Players are not listed next to their teams (though their stats reflect it) and will not until the end of the week. This is a long story due to an organizational issue. As noted, the stats do reflect their most recent or current teams.

The first build of the 2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0 will follow shortly, probably tomorrow afternoon. I have about 2 hours more work to put in it for the first build to be released (entering in already-calculated splits for 108ish pitchers and seasons batting data for pitchers with more than 200 AB in the majors).

Dan is a…

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ZiPS Projections/ZiPS Projection Disk News Update

Just wanted to give an update as to where I am in making the Diamond Mind disk/ZiPS spreadsheet.

SPREADSHEET

Projections for about 2000 players are done and ready to roll.

I am working through a list of 152 requests.

PROJECTION DISK FOR DIAMOND MIND 9

Of the 2000 players above, roughly 1850 are entered into Diamond Mind, with event tables for Yankees and White Sox players still needing to be entered. Platoon splits for those players with adequate sample size are entered in and there are about 40 pitchers of the 152 requests above that need to be created as well.

Right now, it looks like I should have the first build of both the spreadsheet and the disk posted in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. My initial hope was to have it up Sunday evening/Monday morning, but I got a little surprised by the number of new projection requests I've received.

2009 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins

With no dominating teams in the Central, the Twins, like everyone outside the Royals, have a realistic shot at winning the division (and even the Royals having a good season wouldn't be a huge out-of-the-world shock).

Denard Span suddenly drawing walks has left the Twins with an interesting dilemma. If 2008 wasn't a fluke, the team has a centerfielder clearly better than Gomez. Trying to win now, Span's the better bet in centerfielder and the team's offense is top-heavy enough that they can't really risk playing Span in a corner. That the Twins looked at the glut of free agent hitters still around and went after Joe Crede while not doing anything to keep Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell from going to other possible playoff teams is a serious miscalculation. Despite finishing 3rd in the league in runs scored, the Twins are extremely reliant on their two big stars to move the offense. From an "actual replacement" standpoint, Joe Mauer's probably the most valuable player in baseball.

The rotation should be solid with Liriano-Slowey-Baker, though the team would still benefit from another starter, though you can say that about almost any team.

Don't be alarmed by the Ben Revere projection; it's…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

The Tigers had a terrible start to the season, losing 10 of the first 12 games, and never recovered en route to their first last-place finish since the 43-119 in Alan Trammell's first season as manager.

It's not hard to ascertain exactly what went wrong for the team last year. The offense was good, as was advertised, with Miguel Cabrera quietly delivering and overall finishing 3rd in the league in OPS+ and 4th in runs. The pitching, unfortunately, was either injured or ineffective and only some comical ineptitude by Orioles and Rangers hurlers enabled the Tigers to avoid allowing the most runs in the league.

Will it get better? Probably. Verlander looked to be getting it back together after a terrible April, only to lose it again in the second-half. Bonderman missed a lot of time in 2008 coming off a disappointing 2007, but he's supposedly healthy and his circulation problems seem to be behind him. Galarraga was one of the few Tiger pitchers to overachieve last year and his peripherals are generally unimpressive, but he's serviceable. Jackson was tantalizingly useful in 2008 but still has control issues. It seems that the rotation has a lot of guys that walk a…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

Dayton Moore has had a mixed record in Kansas City and while he did a good job turning the Royals from a laughingstock basement-dweller to a respectable, though mediocre, team, it's still a very open question as to whether he's the right man to guide the team towards the next step of becoming a team capable of competing for the playoffs.

So far, I'd have to give a qualified no to the second question. You can't run a poor-to-middling team in the same manner that you would run a truly competitive team. The risks a team in the Royals position should be willing to take are far greater than those that a team like the Red Sox should be willing to take.

The Red Sox or Yankees aren't able to do a whole lot of high-risk plays. Neither can afford to aggressively promote a Kala Kaaihue or a Carlos Rosa or give Ryan Shealy a shot to see where he is. A good team might, if the structure of the team calls for it, need to acquire Mike Jacobs or Coco Crisp or sign Jose Guillen or Kyle Farnsworth or even Horacio Ramirez (I'm not sure even a team in Italy…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies

The problem with the Rockies isn't that they're a poorly-run team. They're not. Dan O'Dowd's a smart guy, the Rockies are decent at developing players of all types. They rarely do mind-blowingly stupid things.

The problem with the Rockies is that they're not really run at all. All decisions seem to be made at the tactical level: Is X player better than Y player? Would we rather have Z or trade him for A and B?

What's missing is some kind of long-term strategy. This is an ongoing problem for the Rockies for at least half-a-decade. The team had that huge run in 2007 to finish 90-73 and eventually get to the World Series. What did they do to try to repeat in 2008? Nothing. Like Homer and his nuclear physics test, the plan was essentially to hide under a pile of coats and hope that everything would just work out.

It didn't and the team finished 74-88. Winning 74 games isn't the end of the world and the Rockies have some decent talent all over the place. But they essentially wasted the year in that they answered very few questions about the team going forward. What's the team doing with…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

While Walt Jocketty made a complete botch of the outfield situation, the Reds aren't really as bad as some people are making the team out to play. Yes, the offense should be mediocre, but the Reds are at the point at which the pitching is a solid, not spectacular, plus, and there are still a few good players, especially Jay Bruce who ZiPS absolutely loves.

And make no mistake about it, it was quite a botching. The team replaced Dunn by signing Taveras and allegedly having Hopper split time with Dickerson in left. Yes, Jay Bruce is a better rightfielder than a centerfielder, but so's everyone else and he played quite well in the majors defensively in center. Bruce in center and a couple of the random below-average corner outfielders they have hanging around is a much better outfield than any configuration that has Taveras starting and Hopper getting way too many, courtesy of the Dust.

Jocketty (and the Reds fanbase) may prefer the Reds to be a team of slapping swifties, but from Publius Quinctilius Varus to George W. Bush, we have ample evidence that making decisions based on the conditions you want rather than the conditions you have doesn't…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

For my money, this is still the team to beat in baseball. While the Red Sox can't match Tampa's massive stable of young pitching, the team is probably the deepest in baseball overall.

Some of the depth will be harder to keep around long-term as the players aren't young and a lot of the pitchers, like Smoltz and Penny, are fliers on pitchers with injury concerns, but there aren't many things that could happen that could really kill Boston's chances in 2009. Even Ortiz "going Hafner" is something the team could survive. Not much else to say; this team is a known commodity and there really aren't a lot of open questions.

As an aside, I've started a ZiPS Facebook Group for those that want to get raw projections quicker before the reports are ready for prime time here.

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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ THR 

AVERAGE
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George Kottaras*         c   26  .256  .336  .417 131 465  62 119 33  0 14  62  55 117  1  1   93  Fr 
Josh Bard#               c   31  .263  .342  .385  88 262  27  69 17  0  5  34  31…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays obviously had a tremendous 2008 season and while a lot of things went the team's way, there really wasn't a single performance on the team that just shouted out "fluke."

There's every indication that the Rays can repeat their success. The offense, which is generally very young with the exception of Carlos Pena and Pat Burrell, isn't one of the elite offenses in the league, but they're good enough everywhere and have a lot of depth. At almost every position, there's a player that could fill-in for the starter and, while not necessarily replacing the missing production, not be a complete embarrassment.

The pitching staff and the defensive improvement is the team's biggest strength. The pitching staff is extremely young and extremely deep, with ZiPS seeing a full rotation with a few spare starters, even before taking into account development of Hellickson and Rollins and the return of Clockhands McGee from Tommy John surgery.

What also makes the Rays a good bet to repeat is that they haven't fallen into the trap into which a lot of winning teams fall. There's a tendency, when a team attains a high level of success, to not want to tinker with the…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

As usual, the Rangers problems start with the pitching, followed by a generally mediocre, though not terrible, defense that makes the pitching look even worse than it already is.

It has to hurt quite a lot to see Volquez, Young, and Danks all finding success elsewhere, but the Rangers did get Josh Hamilton in the exchange and the others have to be considered water under the bridge. The team has two excellent starting prospects in Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland that should be in the majors very shortly and one has to hope that Jon Daniels, even if he pulled off some truly terrible trades, will hang onto those two as if his life depended on it.

The offense won't be as good as last year, with 3 players having MVP-type seasons, but it will still be solid, which is why the Rangers won't be contending for the division, unless something absolutely unforseen happens. After all, the team has a 115 OPS+ and scored 901 runs and didn't break 900 and the team didn't exactly sign Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia in the offseason. The Michael Young situation might be a happy distraction for a team when, yet again, they're losing…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a Long Drive for Someone With Nothing to Think About, The Moon & Antarctica, Good News for People Who Love Bad News, We Were Dead Before the Ship Even Sank.

Despite an organization that has slowly started to turn things around, the last 15 years of the Pirates have consisted of salting the earth, tilling the soil, and resalting, leaving an organization with a major league team that looks like the inspiration for a Modest Mouse album.

There's hope for the future, but it's hard to be too hard on fans that are skeptical about Rebuilding Plan #27. It's needed, since Rebuilding Plans #1-26 were criminally incompetent in execution, so Pirate fans are going to have little choice but to sit and wait, and hope yearly that the Steelers provide enough sports happiness to tide Pittsburgh fans over for the spring and summer. It's not like they can un-buy the beautiful monument to corporate welfare.

As for the team, they have a few above-average hitters, neither of whom are good defensively at their positions. Adam LaRoche is probably the only one that is adequate both offensively and defensively at his position. The pitching is worse. Andy LaRoche will get…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

While new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. made a completely muck-up of the leftfield situation, losing a draft pick when the team didn't offer arbitration to Pat Burrell and another to sign Raul Ibanez, who's no better a player than Pat Burrell (and if one's better than the other, the check mark is probably not in the Ibanez column), the team still has enough front-line talent on offense to survive a bit of nincompoopery.

The pitching staff isn't exciting, but it's also almost entirely intact. There's nobody in the rotation that scares anyone after Cole Hamels, but even the weak link, Kyle Kendrick, is much better than your typical 5th starter.

Utley's signed through 2013 but the team's going to have to decide what to do with Howard and Rollins long-term. The Phils strike me as more likely to sign Rollins than Howard, but there's no Jason Donald that can fill-in adequately at first base in the next couple of years.

All-in-all, the Phillies should contend strongly for the division, especially as the Mets have apparently decided to ignore the starting rotation and hope everything will just be OK. Sure, Fred Wilpon has apparently lost a lot of money in the Bernie…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

The Padres were one of the biggest disappointments in baseball in 2008, dropping from an 89-win season to a 63-win season, better than only the Nats and Mariners and probably the weakest schedule of the trio.

The Friars should get some type of dead cat bounce, but dead cats don't bounce that high and it's hard to see the team exceeding 70 wins without some luck.

Unlike some other terrible teams, the Padres are held back more by circumstances beyond their control moreso than poor decision-making. John Moores is liquidating his property left and right because of a pending divorce and while Jeff Moorad's group is in negotiations for the sale of the franchise, it could take some time and until then, the Padres are going to be shopping at the dollar store and pawning whatever they can.

The team has some gigantic holes that they are only allowed to fill cheaply and from within, but they just don't have the players yet. One major problem is that the players closest to contributing, Blanks and Kulbacki, don't play positions where they have the holes. Kulbacki is probably the eventual Giles replacement, but they're probably going to trade Blanks, though given the…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

Wieters!

There hasn't been a lot to get excited about with the Orioles, but seeing the Orioles best offensive prospect in a quarter-century for a full season should serve to dull the pain of another likely last-place season. Markakis and Jones are very good young players, but the last time I was this excited about seeing an Oriole game since Mussina's last game of the 1991 season and the first time I got to see him pitch in person.

Luckily, the O's didn't leave any room for error with Wieters. They don't have a single catcher on the 40-man roster right now and only invited a bunch of clear non-starters with NRIs, so the chances of the team freaking out at a 4-for-30 stretch and sending him to the minors are quite low.

Overall, the team's putting together a nice offensive core to build around of Wieters/Markakis/Jones. Reimold should be a decent fill-in. The unresolved question is the pitching. The Orioles have a lot of arms, none of which are polished, complete pitchers, and there's going to be a lot of ugly auditions the next couple of years.

I'd say the rebuilding has gone pretty well. It would be nice if…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

As strange as it may sound, the Nats had one of the best terrible offenses in baseball this generation. Upon reviewing last year's projections (adding in the benefit of knowing the 2008 park factor and league offense), I still ended up with an amazing amount of offensive underperformers. It wasn't an organizational issue - Nat minor leaguers didn't underperform at all as a group. It seemed to simply be localized in the majors.

If it was luck, not much you can do to "fix" that. If the Nationals were putting Polonium-210 in the clubhouse drinking water, well, they could stop doing that. If it was Lenny Harris, who didn't fare any better as a hitting coach anecdotally, the Nats are in luck, as he was easily and mercifully fired at the end of last season.

Washington's two main problems right now are lack of high-quality pitchers and Nick Johnson's wrist. The team can't do much about the fact that Nick Johnson has some genetic flaw that caused his hand to be connected to his arm by Scotch Tape that had been previous stuck on a carpet, but they can put some resources into bringing in some pitching, both in free agency,…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

The Mets are a hard team to evaluate at this point in the offseason as they're one of the teams actually looking to invest in their team, which they obviously need to do while Delgado's still decent, Beltran's not aging, and Wright/Reyes are cheap (both signed through 2011 at well below market value). The Mets, more than most other teams, would be smart to overpay for an inning eater for the rotation now that the problems with the bullpen have been filled aggressively.

There are still some questions that need to be answered at a few positions, most notably 2B (as already debated over in Dialed In earlier this week). The Mets will likely stand pat with the starting lineup as much as possible.

Overall, the Mets should be one of the best NL teams in 2009. Choking is overrated - the team came up short due to some holes and they've been doing their best this offseason to fill them.

And yes, I know Billy Wagner's injured and not going to pitch in 2009. I know I reiterate this kind of thing every time in the disclaimer, but in my experience, disclaimers are rarely read.

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CATCHERS
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Name                     P…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

It's hard to talk a lot about the Florida Marlins because when people talk about a team's future, they talk about the team in the context of a baseball team and winning games. Jeff Loria isn't trying to run a baseball team but instead, the sports equivalent of a slum lord. He puts out a horrible product and waits for his government honeypot. Sure, the Marlins take steps forward on the field and occasionally even do well, but Loria actually saps the joy out of any success by ensuring that any step forward is only meaningful to the extent that it helps or hinder his personal payday.

Marlins fans haven't supported the team, but it's not their fault. Who can blame them? The Marlins have shown absolutely no loyalty to their fans.

The team? The Marlins have some excellent players and at least one future star in Michael Stanton. But what does it matter? They'll all eventually move on to organizations that give a ####.

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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ ARM 

FAIR
John Baker*              c   28  .251  .326  .368  99 323  38  81 18…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

If luck truly is the residue of design, Bill Bavasi, Buzzie's Other Idiot Son, truly created a Dionysian revel of misfortune in 2008.

The Mariners' roster moves over the last year were made based on the false impression that the Mariners were a solid playoff team, in contention for a playoff run. They weren't and the assumptions weren't just wrong on the team level, but the individual level as well. So, what made up the Mulligan stew of wishcasting and stupidity? Let us count the ways.

- There was no need to have a Plan B for either Jose Vidro or Richie Sexson. Sure, Sexson's career numbers were dropping faster than the Dow and Vidro had become virtually immobile in the field and swung a bat like the doughnuts were still on the end, but it'll all be OK.

After Sexson and Vidro were terrible, the Mariners demonstrated their lack of planning by the spectacle of Miguel Cairo getting the most 1B starts after Sexson was mercifully dumped. As for designated hitter, the Mariners were reduced to randomly dropping players there, from their top catching prospect, blocked by a ridiculous decision to sign Johjima for 3 more years, to middle infielders…

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Brewers - Signed Thorman

Milwaukee Brewers - Signed 1B Scott Thorman to a minor-league contract.

He gets an invitation to spring training, but there's little to no chance that he gets an invitation to Milwaukee, so there's little chance of any lèse majesté committed against Fielder. Now, injuries do happen and the chairs at Old Country Buffet can be pretty sketchy, so Thorman will ensure that the Brewers don't have to do anything laugh-inducing like teams sometimes do with Miguel Cairo.

ZiPS Projection - Scott Thorman (1B)
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              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009         387  37  91  22   1  17   56  22   82   4 .235 .277 .429   82 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps:  Aaron Rifkin, Larry Broadway

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

Offense %
STAR    3
AVG     11
REP LV  35

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
>160    0       >.400   0       >10     0       >200    0
>140    1       >.375   0       >5      0       >150    0
>120    6       >.350   1
>100    22      >.325   7       2B      %
>80     50      >.300   20      >45     0
>60     81                      >30     0

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
>.350   0       >.550   3       >50     0       >70     0
>.325   0       >.500   11…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

The Indians are now at the crossroads. With Sabathia gone, Hafner's career going the wrong way this year, and Carmona being injured (hip) and going and flip-flopping his 2/1 K/BB ratio, the Indians no longer have the luxury of more or less standing pat. At this point, the team simply doesn't have enough "now" talent to compete in 2009 and probably not enough "later" talent to compete in 2011. It'll probably be another year before Matt LaPorta is ready to be a real plus in the majors and a couple more for Mills and others. Yet the team has holes that need to be filled now if they are to compete in 2009.

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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

EXCELLENT
Victor Martinez#         c   30  .293  .366  .447 115 430  56 126 27  0 13  66  48  59  0  0  113  Av 

VERY GOOD
Kelly Shoppach           c   29  .246  .322  .465  93 284  45  70 20  0 14  50  27 102  0  0  105  Av 

FAIR
Chris Gimenez            c   26  .237  .318  .380 107 376  49  89 18  0 12  50  38  88  1  3…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

I can't believe I'm going to say it, but Brian Sabean has actually done a pretty good job in the last year. Although I still think the Rowand signing is a bad idea and the offense is still terrible, the team has a lot of interesting arms and a few offensive prospects that are pretty promising.

As I see it, Sabean's main challenges are:

- Sorting out the positional logjams. Sandoval's got a strong arm and is a much better athlete than he looks like - he can do a little more than fake 3B, though he's raw and unlikely to ever be strong there. He can handle the tools of ignorance too, but Posey's coming up behind him. 1B is likely where Villalona will end up, too. I'd probably give Sandoval first shot at 3B until he proves he can't handle it. The Giants also need to see what they can do with the Lewis/Rowand/Winn outfield - all 3 could be playing center for other teams and it's one of the few organizational surpluses at the MLB level. I'd certainly try to trade Winn at least.

- Thinning out the Ortmeier Cloud. The Giants have about a million positional players…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier combined to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, which reflects well on Ned Colletti, even if he put as many barriers in front of the latter playing as possible. The real challenge for Colletti is this offseason, with two of the most important pitchers he inherited, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, both gone and a infield that isn't championship quality. The team was apparently short on cash this season, but a lot of contracts come off the books and Colletti will still have more money to play with than any other team in the division. However, if his starter and infield signings turn out as badly as the Pierre and Jones signings in the outfield, Colletti's fortunes could change very quickly. The team also needs to jettison the Martin-to-3B idea - with the Dodgers' spare catching prospect an All-Star playing for Tampa Bay, actually resting Martin once in a while might be the better idea.

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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS RNG 

EXCELLENT
Russell Martin           c   26  .281  .374  .430 154 540  85 152 31  2 15  72  76  82 16…

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Yankees - Acquired Swisher

New York Yankees - Acquired OF Nick Swisher and P Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for P Jeff Marquez, IF Wilson Betemit and P Jhonny Nunez.

Given how far Swisher's stock has fallen, he must be holding a lot of toxic mortgage-backed securities.

While it's tempting to bash Kenny Williams for getting so little for Swisher, that's more Swisher's fault than KW's. Yes, he hit with his usual power and walks, but you have to be a secondary monster to be valuable hitting .219. "Sure, he hit .219, but he's less awful than most guys that hit .219!" won't convince anyone to part with much value. Maybe Ed Wade if Swisher announced he wanted to move to the bullpen.

The main problem with the Yankees taking a flyer on Swisher, which might be a good idea for a lot of teams, is that the Yankees could use help in center if they've soured on Melky and Swisher probably shouldn't be in center. Sure, it would remind Yankee fans of Bernie Williams Comedy Central-Field Yukathon, but that shouldn't be the goal.

It's not much of a haul. Marquez is still young enough to have a career, but he was bad…

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The Oddsinator aka the Doubly Stochastic Matrix of Doom

No, I haven't come up with an actual name yet, but I wanted to say a few words on the new formatting for my individual player projections in order to stem off any confusion that might result from my general assumption that everybody knows exactly what I'm talking about without me having to explain. And no, there are no Markov chains involved, I just like the sound of it.

Why did I change it? I don't feel that optimistic and pessimistic lines were communicating as much information about a player's projection as they could - they were simply saying that players have really good seasons sometimes and really bad ones sometimes, which you don't need a line to figure out. I feel this way conveys probabilities of players accomplishing certain things without having to print a 5 page series of lines.

First, let's look at the pitchers, using Damaso Marte as an example (I just changed the formatting slightly from what was posted due to some confusion).

ERA+      %
Top 1/3  64
Mid 1/3  28
Bot 1/3   8

This compares Marte to the usual population of pitchers with 30 or more innings pitched (for starters, I use 100 as the cutoff).…

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