2008 ZiPS Projections, Final Spreadsheet

The title is pretty explanatory. 

2008 ZiPS Projections for Microsoft Excel

The White Sox are officially my least favorite team for 2008 for forcing me to slap some crap together to try and project Alexei Ramirez.  The Reds are the runner-up for making it so I have to project a reliever who hasn’t been active since 2004.

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays led the AL in ERA this season and almost all of that staff is guaranteed to be back next year, but the offense has a lot of work to do. None of the hitters are actually terrible per se, but there just haven't been a lot of pleasant surprises for the team. Like the Angels, the Jays are a team that really needs to take advantage of one of the best free agent crops in recent seasons and if they can't do that, they can't be in the hunt for the playoffs and they need to clean house and rebuild. This isn't the NL West and striving to win 86 games and complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox won't get the Jays into October. When the Orioles are being more decisive about organizational direction than your team is, you need to take a long, hard look at your short and long-term goals and I don't think Ricciardi's shown that he does anything but fly by the seat of his pants.

Nothing illustrates the Jays problem than Matt Watson, who's always had the potential to be a good 4th outfielder, being 2nd on the below list.

Name                     P  Age…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Oakland Athletics

Make no mistake about it, the A's aren't doing a quick rebuild. There's little chance of competing with the Angels in 2009 unless the team's fortunate in some of the young hitters really stepping up, like Carlos Gonzalez. Daric Barton probably needs to spend some time in the minors as there's a difference between being disciplined and simply being too passive. Cust can get away with it since he has a lot more power, but Barton has to be more like Mark Grace. If enough breaks right for the team, they could win 80 games, but a number in the 70s is more likely depending on what Beane does in the offseason.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Jack Cust*               dh  30  .246  .387  .471 136 435  66 107 20  0 26  78 100 160  0  1 
Frank Thomas             dh  41  .260  .362  .402  86 296  31  77 12  0 10  41  44  50  0  0 
AVERAGE 1B/DH ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Travis Buck*             rf  24  .252  .335  .403  85 318  40  80 18  3  8  39  36  71  4  1
AVERAGE 3B --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Eric Chavez*…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

Unfortunately, 86 wins while being outscored may very well be the high-water mark for this incarnation of the Astros, with the last few crumbs of the farm system being traded for Miguel Tejada, who was disappointingly average this season. The Astros were the oldest team in the NL in 2008, with the hitters being a nearly full year older on average than the second-oldest offense (the Padres). The Cubs emerging as a truly solid team further complicates the matter for the Astros as there's less chance of being able to pop in for a division crown with 84 wins in the Central. The Astros have enough players at the top that they can compete in 2009 with some luck, but the team needs to go aggressively after a starting pitcher (and I don't mean a Brian Moehler). Depth emerged as a serious issue every time something went wrong this year and there's not a lot to be found in the minors, meaning that they'll also have to buy depth, which isn't exactly the most cost-effective.

As of now (which is obviously extremely early), I'll put the Astros in the 77-81 win range for 2009.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G…

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels

One can say the Angels had a fortunate season in 2008 and still had a good team. The hardest challenge the Angels have this offseason is how to upgrade an offense that has entrenched mediocrity in several places rather than a few gaping Willy Taveras-type holes. Looking at OPS+ relative to league average for position (from B-R, of course):

Po    sOPS+
1B    109
CF    109
C     105
RF    103
DH     99
SS     92
2B     87
LF     82
3B     69

LF and 3B were clearly the biggest problems for the team this year (2B will be better next season). Luckily for the Angels, the division should still be rather weak, they are willing to invest in top players, and it's a much better FA crop than the last few offseasons, so I don't mean to sound doom and gloom.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Mark Teixeira#           1b  29  .292  .390  .517 144 545  91 159 37  1 28 103  83 103  2  0 
Vladimir Guerrero        rf  33  .305  .372  .504 143 548  81 167 33  2 24  97  54  69  6  2 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---------------------------------------------------------------- 
Mike Napoli…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - In-Season Projection Tool

2008 ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool

Just a little tool I give out every year to make estimated recalculations of projections for the rest of the season.  As usual with my spreadsheets, green cells are ones you put stuff into.  Someone more clever than I might be able to figure out how to data-mine a few of those cells automatically.  Remember, it’s really early in a season, so I probably wouldn’t use this too much, especially for starting pitchers, for another couple of weeks.

ZiPS Career Projection - David Ortiz

There was a discussion of this recently in the thread talking about David Ortiz and the Hall of Fame and how he compared to Edgar Martinez.

2008 ZiPS Projections for Diamond Mind 9 and Microsoft Excel, Build 1.1

The title is pretty explanatory. 

2008 ZiPS Projections for Microsoft Excel

2008 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9

2/8 Update

The DMB disk has been updated with SG’s version with depth charts, plus a few new signings (Hinske, Miller, etc.) a couple of other minor league signings, Slayden moved to PHI, and projections for Ramon Nivar (256/295/331, Edgar Gonzalez (259/319/370), and John Hudgins (4.98).  Remember to let me know of additional player requests!

So, what’s done here?  Projections for 1036 pitchers and 1005 hitters.  If you play Diamond Mind, 40-man rosters (with the exceptions of players I don’t do like whathisface from Cuba and David Price) and as many non-roster invitees as I have been able to verify are on the team, either as a non-roster invitee, an offseason minor league signing, or a carryover player not eligible for minor league free agency.

SG has provided the 2008 schedule, so that’s done.

What’s then left is making any corrections, adding any players that you wish to see projected that I can reasonably do (some 300 players here did not have projections for the team-by-team rundowns), and eventually making rosters.  In particular, if any DMB players would like to contribute a…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

As obvious as one of the main storylines of 2007 was, the pitching being top-notch and the offense being, well, otherwise, the park made these actually more extreme, masking to some degree just how good the pitching was and just how bad the hitting was. After all, the surges of the Rockies and Phillies, bringing Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday to the front of the pack, might have saved us from Eric Byrnes of the 104 OPS+ in left being taken seriously as an MVP candidate (as he was at times in the middle of the season).

The offense should be better but the pitching shouldn't drop off too much, which makes the Diamondbacks yet another contender in a crowded NL field. What makes the Diamondbacks especially dangerous is those little twos in the age column - the major league squad is chock-full of players that are at ages they can improve. Counting on an individual young player to improve is generally not as good a bet as most people think. However, when massed as they are in Arizona, they act almost as an index stock - it doesn't really matter if it's Mark Reynolds or Conor Jackson or Chris Young…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

It's starting to look like the Braves' 2006 total of 79 wins represents the low-water mark for a while.

Considering their prominence in the NL over the last 15 years, it's surprising how quiet the Braves snuck back towards contention last year. On the offensive side, if the Big 5 can stay healthy, Atlanta has to be one of the favorites for the Wild Card and a contender for the division. The path of Kelly Johnson and Matt Die-az are clearer nw than ever before and there's little reason to think Brian McCann can't get back to his 2006 level of play, though catchers seem to age in bizarre ways at times. This offense plus General Zod and Hudson and this is a very dangerous October team.

The Braves are, however, probably more susceptible to injuries than the average team. There aren't a lot of backups at the offensive positions (they could survive with Pena at catcher and Prado/Lillibridge in the middle infield) and the rotation has little depth past the major leaguers. The Braves system has some really interesting players, but they're mainly very far off and even the ones I projected, like Schafer and Flowers, are a few years…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

Before doing the Baltimore projections, I fearlessly claimed that the Red Sox had the best projections of any AL team. After doing the Orioles projections, I'm not revising that opinion.

There are some reasons to like the franchise. That is, if you close your eyes and pretend that this is the time that Angelos won't short-circuit a long-term rebuilding job. Angelos seems to want a painless rebuild, but the time to get a relatively painless rebuild was 10 years ago. While they could have rebuilt after the 1997 season, it's hard to expect any team to rebuild after a 98-win season. But during the 1998 season, when it was clear that they weren't a contender, Angelos stood in the way of any change of direction. Palmeiro and Alomar and Eric Davis simply walked at the end of the season, there wasn't even a whisper of Brady Anderson or B.J. Surhoff being moved, and so on. The major league talent moved on, no minor league talent replaced them for years, and the team took one of the highest concentrations of high draft picks in history (7 of the first 50 picks in the draft) and turned it into Brian Roberts.

Now, a…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

This might not come as a great shock considering the Red Sox just won the World Series for the 2nd time this decade, but ZiPS sees the Red Sox as the best team in the AL. Well, technically, I haven't done the Orioles yet, but I'm taking a wild guess that the Orioles aren't going to look better than the Sox on e-paper.

No real suprises here. It's a deep team. While they obviously don't have spare better-than-average 1B, DH or LF/RF backups stashed away, nobody really does, and the team is very deep everywhere else. The amount of minor leaguers that project to be non-terrible at up-the-middle positions is downright staggering and I'm not even counting guys like Lars Anderson who should pop up in the 2009 projections.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
David Ortiz*             dh  32  .297  .400  .593 153 573 111 170 38  0 44 138  97 121  1  0 
Manny Ramirez            lf  36  .278  .381  .493 123 442  75 123 26  0 23  98  71  98  0  1 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .290  .367  .489 ------------------------------------------
Kevin Youkilis           1b  29  .286  .388  .444…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs

It always feels to me like I should be mocking them for something, but there just isn't a lot for me to complain about. The Cubs aren't an elite organization, but I think they're still the best in the Central and don't have any gaping holes. This team wouldn't compete in the AL East or Central and would need some luck in the AL West, but they don't have to worry about that. When I look at the roster, I feel like there are only a few players that Ed Wade would sign for the Astros, which is a Very Good Thing - much is made about teams with ex-Cubs not winning the World Series, but I think the current-Astros curse will be considerably more potent the next couple of years. Really, the only thing I can whine about is the team just doesn't like Matt Murton.

No, I will not projection Josh Vitters.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Derrek Lee               1b  32  .300  .382  .517 123 460  76 138 32  1 22  78  57  97  7  3 
Aramis Ramirez           3b  30  .292  .354  .531 138 524  78…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

The White Sox don't seem to have noticed it yet, but they're no longer even a heavy favorite to beat out the Royals for 4th place in the division. Like the team they beat in the World Series in 2005, the Astros, Kenny Williams and the rest of the Pale Hose seem to be looking at the team, hoping that if they squint hard enough, the team will look like 2005. The team will continue to suffer the next few years as a result of the organization not accurately assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the team during and after the 2006 season. Not much else to say - despite a few bright spots, this is a bad, old team, with a thin farm system (though not Astro-bad). Gio Gonzalez is one of the bright spots in the organization, but despite a solid 2007, the Met is an extreme pitcher's park in a very strong pitcher's league and Gonzalez would be best served with some serious time in the less hospitable Knights Stadium in Charlotte.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Jim Thome*               dh  37  .253  .378  .487 111…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

The Reds should be another one of the NL's huge middle class. That's always tricky for management because there can be a tendency to not completely commit to either short or long-term planning and play it safe, taking the mediocre middleway, resulting in neither goal being pursued effectively. However, the Reds are better off than a team like the Astros as, while Krivsky hasn't exactly shown himself to be a genius, he also hasn't dumped the team's prospects and depth in an attempt to focus on a relative weakness - Ed Wade would've dumped Cueto or Votto for a middle reliever by now. While the Reds have had bullpen problems, they charged after value and got probably the best reliever available.

The team has a terrific front 4 of prospects in Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, and Votto, plus some guys that could still pan out like Drew Stubbs and the surprising Rog...err...Daniel Dorn. There are also several guys that had impressive 1st and 2nd seasons at very low levels that aren't listed below but should appear next year, such as Brandon Waring.

Krivsky's next test will be if he can handle the team's weaknesses outside of the obvious need for pitching. The…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

The Indians should be one of the Big 5 again in 2008. While they didn't do something big like land Cabrera (which, of course, would be nice), they're still a solid team that has a terrific 1-2 punch for the playoffs, possibly the best 1-2 in baseball unless Liriano quickly gets bad to where he is. The pitching rotation has a bunch of spares, especially if Jeremy Sowers can turn things around a bit. The offense is shallower, but none of their prime contributors are all that old. I wouldn't be suprised if the Indians are a player in the trade deadline this year and trade off a pitcher or two for an outfielder. Garko will beat that projection.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Travis Hafner*           dh  31  .276  .389  .508 143 508  87 140 29  1 29 108  88 116  1  1 
Grady Sizemore*          cf  25  .287  .376  .491 160 637 122 183 39  8 25  96  78 134 23  8 
Victor Martinez#         c   29  .303  .378  .472 146 551  76 167 36  0 19  97  63  73  0  0 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .279  .359…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies

World Series appearance or not, I believe it's more accurate to call the Rockies a good team rather than one of the elite teams in the NL. Why were they good in 2007? Despite the flowery summations over hunger and scrappiness and so forth, the Rockies success was essentially based on two things:

1) Dan O'Dowd finally abandoning the notion of trying to find a gimmicky team to win in Coors and simply assembling a team of the best players he could find. Coors Field is less of a hitter's park than it used to be, but it's still a very strong hitter's park, just not the best hitter's park in MLB history by a substantial margin, as it was in the earlier days. OK, Mile High was just as bad, but I think people reading can get the gist - Mile High and Coors were massive hitter's parks for similar reasons. This Rockies team was made to win in every stadium they played in, not simply 1 of the 30 parks.

2) The front-line hitters were very good and, quite importantly, very healthy. The Big 5 of Helton, Atkins, Hawpe, Tulowitzki, and Holliday combined for an OPS+ of 126 and…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

Pretty clearly, the Tigers are one of the AL's Big 5, but I think they're probably still 5th, for the simple reason that they're ill-suited to handle injuries and various other unfortunate happenstances that can arise during the season. After the Renteria and Cabrera trades, the minor league system becomes quite a bit thinner and they simply don't have many player now, other than Porcello, that could expect to fetch much during the season. Obviously, it's a sacrifice you can make for Cabrera and Willis, but I think that's kind of a stretch for Renteria, an average SS who's still living off a defensive reputation earned years ago.

Now, if the starters stay healthy, this looks a lot like a 95-win team to me, but if Bonderman or Rogers go down, there's nobody you'd really want to plug into the rotation for a contending team - Jurrjens and Miller are gone and Durbin would be hard-pressed to put in an ERA under 5 again. There's still a whole winter to address this issue, however, so these concerns could be premature.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Miguel Cabrera           3b…

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2008 ZIPS Projections - Florida Marlins

While the pitching was pretty ugly this past season, a sizable chunk of that was due to what is a pretty bad defense, with Ramirez, Uggla, and Willingham being pretty bottom of the barrel, and Cabrera and Jacobs not much better. It's hard to tell, however, if this is going to be a long-term issue because with the Marlins still being unwilling to invest in their team until such time they get a welfare stadium, the team might start getting antsy as these players hit their arbitration years.

The team is still very much in flux as neither Cabrera nor Willis strike me as terribly long for Florida. The best thing they can do is get some offensive prospects that can field their positions (the team is far deeper in pitching than hitting prospects), see if they can flip Uggla, and explore moving Ramirez to an easier position. And until such time that they do any of this, they probably should shy away from ground-ball pitchers. I think Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe would have a nervous breakdown by the end of May in front of these infielders, not that there's any danger of either of them becoming a Marlin.

Name…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

The Astros are essentially the NL version of the Orioles. Both teams aren't rich enough to be free-wheelin', aren't poor enough that they feel the need to be creative, and mistake taking the middle road as not having a plan at all, leaving them just sort of meandering around. Sure, they managed to get to the World Series in 2005, but even that team only won 89 games despite having the 3 of the NL's top 6 starters in ERA+ that year and neither of that 1-2 punch, Clemens and Pettitte, aren't Astros now and won't be in 2008. Hiring Ed Wade doesn't exactly suggest a solid plan will be put in place at any time in the near future. Like the Orioles, the Astros have a supportive fanbase that will reward them if they put together a solid team in the long-term.

I did the spotlight for Jason Jennings. I know he's not technically an Astro anymore, but in an amazingly weak free agent market for pitching, he's one of the more interesting hurlers out there and might be one of the few bargains after a 2007 season he'd like to forget (like Bartolo Colon).

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

While the projections aren't exactly the rosiest for 2008, there's a lot more to like here than there was this time last year. Dayton Moore has had a lot of work to do since taking over and he will continue to have a lot to do as there was simply a lot of organizational mess to clean up from the previous regime. But Moore's done a good job so far cleaning out the Augean stables and there really are good reasons to hope. Gordon will be fine in the long run, Butler's way to a DH job is more clear with some of the leftovers now safely out of the way. Hochevar and Cortes aren't ready yet, but should continue to develop nicely and if Greinke's various issues are out of the way, he could beat that projection impressively. I think 3 league-average or better starting pitchers is the best ZiPS has projected in years!

As long as the Royals stay on task, keep trying out young pitchers (I projected a dozen 25-and-under hurlers and there are more in the low levels), they should find some more gems, as they did with Soria. That's the best part about truly rebuilding -…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels

With the A's maybe rebuilding, the Mariners a team with some talent run by Buzzie's Other Idiot Son, and the Rangers, well, the Rangers, the Angels should have by far the easiest path to a 2008 playoff spot in baseball. The strengths of the team are pretty obvious; a terrific trio of Escobar, Lackey, and the Dream Weaver (Jeff being the Nightmare Weaver), and a still potent Vlad. While ZiPS might look down on the offense, it's not really as bad as the high position of those average lines make it look (unlike, say, the Giants) as pretty much everyone is just ever-so-slightly below their average and there are no horrific holes in the offense with the overdue dumping of Shea Hillenbrand back in July. It didn't quite work in 2007, but the Angels do still have the ability to go deep in the playoffs.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Vladimir Guerrero        rf  32  .310  .384  .517 154 588  95 182 36  1 28 111  66  63  8  3
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .284  .363  .457 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .282  .353  .461 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

Two years into his stint with the Dodgers, Ned Colletti still hasn't shown that he understands the strengths and weakness of the team and has never shown the slightest sign that he makes player moves with any regard to any kind of plan, whether short-term, or long-term, or even good or bad. Like a 6-year-old bawling in a grocery store, Colitis sees familiar brand names and bright shiny colors, and stale gum in fancy-looking machines, and wants wants WANTS it NOW NOW NOW. The Juan Pierre signing was bad on so many levels - he misidentified a need, got a player that wouldn't fix that need even if it did exist, and then he paid that player as if that player was not only capable of filling that non-existent need, but actually contributing even more. And now the rumors are that Pierre's going to move to left, making him even less valuable to the team. If Johan Santana is really available for Kemp and another prospect, the Dodgers might as well pull the trigger now and let the kid have a career.

It really is a shame. Dan Evans did a wonderful job putting together a top-notch player development plan. DePodesta…

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Cubs - Dumped Jones, Monroe

Chicago Cubs - Traded OF Jacque Jones to the Detroit Tigers for IF Omar Infante, Traded OF Craig Monroe to the Twins for a player to be named later.

The Chicago Cubs are the clear winner here as they probably got the two most valuable players of the four, assuming that the player to be named is a sentient being that isn't Nick Punto.

Yes, Craig Monroe and Jacque Jones are both usable as platoon players. Problem is, the whole purpose of platoon players is that it's damn easy to find one. So what if Craig Monroe can hit lefty pitchers? So does any right-handed outfielder that can slug a has a bit of isolated power - it's not a rare skill. Hell, I could also buy a used car for $2000, put a little flag on it, park it at the edge of the driveway, and it would be a perfectly serviceable mailbox. Or, I could act like someone with a room temperature IQ and buy an actual mailbox for $40.

Jones is a little better and played admirably in center, but he's also another limited player, who just had a dramatic loss of power well past his 30th birthday…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers look again like they'll be a pretty good team. The biggest concern I think is that the team needs to sort out who plays where - the defense looks a little like one of those small picture puzzles which has 15 sliding squares and room for 16 but you have to manipulate them into the proper order to see the sailboat or the puppy dog or Linus Pauling. Probably their best SS option remains their centerfielder, their best 2B option after the centerfielder is probably at short, their 2B probably shouldn't be at second but should be somewhere, and their 3B should probably be in left. How do you get the defense lined ideally without annoying half the lineup over the winter? Having Gallardo, Braun, and Sheets for a full-season and a fully-healthy Weeks will help the Brewers from falling to the Plexiglass Principle, but it's hard to count on Sheets for a full season. The Brewers are cutting loose Jenkins at just about the right time. He meant a lot to the team over the last decade, but it was the right thing to do.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins

About 20 years ago (geez, I feel old), in one of the Elias Baseball Analysts, they did a study on which types of teams are most likely show big improvement and they found that teams with glaring weaknesses and some strengths improved more and more quickly than teams that were just generally mediocre all-round. I think the Twins are a good example of the former team. 2B, 3B, LF, and to an extent, DH, were so awful offensively for the Twins that the team will substantially improve if they just could find some players that aren't truly awful there.

Obviously, the Twins would miss Santana, but if they're not going to re-sign him, they could really pick up some offensive value if they chose to do so. Just upgrading Punto at 3rd to a player 15 runs better than replacement is worth 4 wins. The team could easily pick up another 2 wins at each of the other 3 positions with non-horrible players and if they do all this, they've already replaced Hunter's value and are starting to chip a little off the Santana loss. Liriano, Baker, Garza, and Slowey combined for only 49 starts and with a little fortune on…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

While the Ny Mets are not my favorite squadron, reports of the Mets' demise are grossly premature. When a team collapses as badly as the Mets did the last few months of the season, people always look for some narrative to explain that loss. That the Mets are just a very good team that just played badly for awhile is generally not sexy enough for the headlines, but that's what most likely happened. How often did one hear OMG 4.67 SEC0ND HALF ERA!!!!!! the last few weeks of the season? While that's extremely disappointing, April, May, June, and the first third of July aren't exhibition games and the Mets did a very good job at getting those same big leaguers out over that span. Even with the bad second half, the Mets for the season got above-average performance out of both their rotation and their bullpen. Maine and Perez are young and back and while Pedro's health is likely going to always be a question-mark, 5 starts is certainly below Pedro's mean health projection.

ZiPS really likes Kevin Mulvey, which puts him on my Antacid Watch List next year as I'll probably follow him daily in a hope I can telepathically…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees

ZiPS sees no reason to believe that the Yankees won't be one of the top teams in baseball again in 2008. With one of the top young pitching troikas in Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy, I'm not holding my breath for the Orioles to make a grand charge at a playoff spot. Losing A-Rod is huge, but the Yankees have enough money to remedy that situation somewhat and the pitching may very well be better if the young starters don't blow out an arm-part.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Alex Rodriguez           3b  32  .305  .410  .583 159 590 127 180 30  1 44 151  93 132 16  3 
Jason Giambi*            dh  37  .241  .398  .482 110 340  58  82 13  0 23  77  75  86  0  0 
Bobby Abreu*             rf  34  .284  .391  .445 156 573 106 163 37  2 17 111  99 117 22  7 
Hideki Matsui*           lf  34  .290  .368  .476 142 544  95 158 33  4 20 106  67  71  2  2 
Jorge Posada#            c   36  .283  .380  .447 133 452  67 128 29  0 15  78  66  92  2  0 
Derek Jeter              ss  34  .308  .386  .435 151…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s

The most notable thing about the A's disappointing, injury-filled 2007 season is how many blind squirrels it brought out of the woodwork, people that had been declaring the green-and-gold doomed every year for the last 5 or so years, and when the team finally has a real down season, declaring how smart they are. Beane never should have written that book...

The season wasn't a complete washout. Danny Haren had a huge season and Travis Buck gives the A's a surplus at the hitting positions. And Jack Cust, who strikes out way too much to ever hit major league pitching and who statheads don't realize won't ever hit in the majors, was made mincemeat out of by AL hurlers to the tune of finishing 8th in the AL in OPS+. There could be a downside to all the 1B/LF/RF/DH types being healthy - Swisher in CF. Yikes! On the downside, the A's starting pitching really doesn't look all that impressive and the minor league depth just isn't there.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Jack Cust*               dh  29  .264  .394  .470 135 428  65 113 22  0 22  70…

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2008 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies aren't a hard team to get a handle on. Impressive front-line talent of Howard, Utley, Burrell, Rollins, and Hamels, and very poor depth. The team unfortunately has let a couple of gaping holes just hang out there because of their impressive front-line talent, most notably giving actually having Abraham Nunez and Jose Mesa play baseball. The front-line talent plus an excellent season by Rowand (and a good one by Victorino thanks to some swanky defense in right) was enough to give the team a great offense and make a final charge to the playoffs despite a rather bad pitching staff. There's not much hope on the farm, either - it's bone dry and there's very little organizational depth anywhere.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Ryan Howard*             1b  28  .294  .406  .622 149 537  97 158 26  0 50 148 100 177  0  0 
Chase Utley*             2b  29  .299  .381  .515 147 582 109 174 40  4 26 108  62 104 12  3 
Pat Burrell              lf  31  .249  .377  .479 141 461  71 115 22  0 28 103  94 128  0  0 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ----…

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