BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2006 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, October 21, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

Hope Mazzone can up some of these! Some highlights:

Ryan - 73 IP, 50 H, 100 K, 2.59 ERA
Bedard - 8-7, 4.04
Tejada - 303/357/511
Roberts - 295/372/432, 46 2B
Markakis - 266/333/398
Steroid Man - 227/317/359, 15 HR

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Ryan*        2.59   4   2  71   0    73.0   50   21   3   28  100 
Ray          3.91   4   3  66   0    69.0   61   30   9   23   75 
Bedard*      4.04   8   7  26  25   147.0  136   66  10   62  128 
Williams     4.25   5   4  66   0    72.0   75   34   5   23   32 
Maine        4.41   9  10  29  28   153.0  145   75  20   59  132 
Rakers       4.56   5   5  61   0    81.0   76   41  14   29   81 
Borkowski    4.61   8  11  30  26   162.0  179   83  21   39   86 
Lopez        4.62  10  14  34  30   187.0  199   96  24   55  115 
Rleal        4.66   3   4  50   0    58.0   57   30   9   21   54 
Cabrera      4.67   9  11  30  30   160.0  145   83  14   92  140 
DuBose*      4.71   9  11  32  24   151.0  153   79  21   54  108 
Chen*        4.77   8  10  33  30   166.0  168   88  28   54  125 
Baldwin      4.81   5   7  28  15   116.0  131   62  18   25   56 
Johnson      4.84   9  10  26  24   145.0  151   78  17   59  116 
Fiore        4.86   5   7  35  20   139.0  151   75  17   47   73 
Stephens     4.86   5   6  24  20   126.0  136   68  22   32   85 
Parrish*     4.93   3   3  50   1    73.0   66   40   6   48   67 
Rodriguez    4.97   2   2  53   0    67.0   62   37   6   42   56 
Bauer        5.00   4   6  36  11    99.0  105   55  12   41   59 
Julio        5.05   3   4  64   0    66.0   65   37  11   30   59 
Byrdak*      5.05   2   4  65   1    66.0   62   37   9   37   63 
Kline*       5.07   2   4  68   0    55.0   57   31   7   27   32 
Penn         5.10   7  11  29  26   143.0  146   81  22   63  112 
Grimsley     5.16   4   5  63   0    61.0   62   35   6   33   40 
Ainsworth    5.24   2   3  12  10    55.0   58   32   8   25   39 
Finch        5.25   8  11  26  26   144.0  162   84  19   57   85 
Bruback      5.43   6  10  29  22   141.0  152   85  23   61   94 
Loewen*      5.75   6  10  26  25   130.0  133   83  12   93  102 
Forystek*    6.13   4   9  23  21   113.0  122   77  22   64   80 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Tejada       ss  .303  .357  .511 162 654  92 198 46  3 28 113  50  74  5  1 
Mora         3b  .292  .366  .471 136 531  79 155 30  1 21  83  54  95  7  5 
Lopez        c   .292  .343  .498 124 466  61 136 26  2 22  76  32  79  0  1 
Roberts#     2b  .295  .372  .432 154 627  99 185 46  5 10  70  78  83 28 13 
Marrero      rf  .273  .335  .449  64 176  23  48 11  1  6  26  16  34  2  1 
Gibbons*     rf  .273  .321  .463 138 510  65 139 30  2 21  78  36  66  0  1 
Freire       1b  .271  .337  .429 134 462  55 125 26  1 15  63  41  79  1  0 
Majewski*    rf  .279  .332  .432 114 412  67 115 17  5 12  56  30  58 14  5 
Byrnes       cf  .262  .331  .428 130 474  64 124 29  4 14  58  43  82 10  2 
Pond*        lf  .262  .329  .422 111 408  49 107 27  1 12  56  38 108  4  3 
Matos        cf  .281  .339  .408 126 466  64 131 26  3  9  50  35  79 15  8 
Markakis*    rf  .266  .333  .398 117 417  62 111 24  2  9  54  41  85  4  2 
Newhan*      2b  .270  .325  .414 125 444  78 120 24  5 10  55  36  86 12  6 
Sosa         rf  .227  .313  .409 119 440  35 100 17  0 21  67  54 106  0  1 
Young*       1b  .251  .309  .418 129 467  59 117 22  1 18  67  31 112  2  2 
Bergeron*    cf  .278  .332  .360 102 378  51 105 14  4  3  31  31  71  9  7 
Castro#      2b  .286  .331  .341 127 475  65 136 17  3  1  35  34  49 28 11 
Reed         rf  .253  .305  .391 111 399  49 101 20  1 11  46  24  88  5  4 
Palmeiro*    1b  .227  .317  .359 134 454  51 103 15  0 15  65  58  57  1  0 
Fiorentino*  lf  .243  .291  .402 106 383  58  93 15  2 14  48  23  94  9  4 
Surhoff*     lf  .260  .302  .344  88 288  30  75 10  1  4  32  17  34  1  1 
Gomez        3b  .257  .318  .325  88 249  26  64  9  1  2  23  22  25  2  2 
Fasano       c   .217  .265  .396  75 207  22  45  7  0 10  31  10  50  0  0 
Spears*      2b  .245  .297  .330 109 400  50  98 14  4  4  30  27  77  5  3 
Raines#      cf  .246  .297  .342 130 456  63 112 21  4  5  37  28 102 23 16 
Johnson      3b  .219  .278  .335 132 474  50 104 21  2 10  48  34 104  5  4 
Whiteside    c   .220  .266  .350  96 309  28  68 17  1  7  32  17  64  1  1 
Nivar        cf  .250  .283  .337 113 436  54 109 16  2  6  40  18  43 16 11 
Huggins      1b  .220  .294  .297 115 387  37  85 15  0  5  34  38  99  1  2 
Gil          c   .225  .279  .306  97 346  35  78 16  0  4  30  23  57  1  1 
Rogers       ss  .233  .275  .322 122 429  51 100 21  1  5  37  21  70 13  9 
Marsters     c   .203  .249  .303 101 330  34  67 18  0  5  28  17  78  1  1 
Rine*        cf  .187  .252  .246 117 402  52  75  9  3  3  24  32  91 16  7 

Name               c       1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      
Tejada                                             Fr/112                          
Mora                               Av/127  Av/102  Av/139  Vg/109  Vg/100  Av/139  
Lopez              Av/114                                                          
Roberts#                           Vg/90           Fr/91                           
Marrero            Fr/100  Av/100                          Av/115  Fr/115  Av/115  
Gibbons*                   Pr/100                          Av/82           Av/70   
Freire                     Av/100                                                  
Majewski*                                                  Av/100  Fr/100  Vg/100  
Byrnes                                                     Av/110  Fr/110  Vg/110  
Pond*                      Av/100          Pr/100          Av/100          Av/100  
Matos                                                      Vg/100  Vg/127  Vg/100  
Markakis*                                                  Vg/100  Fr/100  Vg/100  
Newhan*                    Av/100  Av/100  Pr/100          Vg/100          Vg/100  
Sosa                                                                       Av/125  
Young*                     Fr/100                                                  
Bergeron*                                                  Vg/70   Fr/115          
Castro#                            Fr/100                          Vg/100          
Reed                                                       Av/100          Av/100  
Palmeiro*                  Pr/100                                                  
Fiorentino*                Av/100                          Av/100  Fr/100  Av/100  
Surhoff*                   Vg/76                           Av/76           Fr/76   
Gomez                              Fr/108  Av/100  Fr/100                          
Fasano             Fr/100                                                          
Spears*                            Vg/100          Fr/100                          
Raines#                                                    Vg/100  Vg/100  Vg/100  
Johnson                                    Fr/100                                  
Whiteside          Vg/100                                                          
Nivar                                                      Vg/100  Vg/100  Vg/100  
Huggins                    Av/100                                                  
Gil                Fr/103                                                          
Rogers                                             Vg/100                          
Marsters           Av/100                                                          
Rine*                                                      Vg/100  Vg/100  Vg/100

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 21, 2005 at 04:37 PM | 16 comment(s)
Related News: Baltimore, ZIPS

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1. Dingbat Charlie

Posted: October 21, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1697259)

we'll miss you BJ.

2. Thomas Richard Hamilton Nugent Posted: October 21, 2005 at 06:03 PM (#1697392)

Probably should adjust those ERAs down with Leo Mazzone in the fold.

3. Duffy Duff Posted: October 21, 2005 at 07:00 PM (#1697442)

Sosa .227/.313/.409

My. how the mighty have fallen. Couldn't happen to a nicer, more humble, guy.

4. Nate Posted: October 21, 2005 at 08:47 PM (#1697516)

Dan,

Where are you getting those defensive numbers? What do they mean?

Also, from what I recall from last year, ZiPS is pessimistic when it comes to most pitchers. I really like Rakers chances to beat that projection, if given a shot. And Ray, if he could control the home run a little, would be a dynamite reliever. I'll say both beat the ERA projections by at least a half a run, and thats before the Mazzone factor.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 21, 2005 at 08:57 PM (#1697525)

Also, from what I recall from last year, ZiPS is pessimistic when it comes to most pitchers. I really like Rakers chances to beat that projection, if given a shot. And Ray, if he could control the home run a little, would be a dynamite reliever. I'll say both beat the ERA projections by at least a half a run, and thats before the Mazzone factor.

Overall, pro-rating the pitcher projections with reality, ZiPS wasn't pessimistic - it just saw offense at '02-'04 levels instead of '05 levels. Compared to league, outperformers were nearly identical to underperformers.

Also, you're looking at mean projections essentially, so the range is going to be smaller. But we see the overachievers at the top while the underachievers at the bottom end of the range are down in the minors playing poorly.

6. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 21, 2005 at 09:01 PM (#1697529)

Sosa .227/.313/.409

My. how the mighty have fallen. Couldn't happen to a nicer, more humble, guy.

Palmeiro .227/.317/.359

7. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 21, 2005 at 09:08 PM (#1697532)

BJ Surhoff .260/.302/.344

The Orioles need to lure Alomar out of retirement.

8. Rob Base Posted: October 22, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1698099)

Steroid Man - 227/317/359, 15 HR

PWN3D

9. Bunny Vincennes Posted: October 24, 2005 at 12:35 AM (#1701027)

So BJ finally retired? Somehow I missed that. What an interesting baseball career he has had.

10. Dingbat Charlie

Posted: October 24, 2005 at 09:05 AM (#1701188)

Jack, I was referring to the other BJ, the one we will be losing to free agency.

11. Bunny Vincennes Posted: October 24, 2005 at 11:52 AM (#1701486)

Oh, of course, Charlie. I just assumed that Surhoff was going to finally pack it in.

12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 24, 2005 at 07:34 PM (#1702220)

Anybody know whether Aaron Rakers is related to the Jason Rakers who used to pitch for the Royals?

13. SABRJoe Posted: October 28, 2005 at 04:10 AM (#1709073)

Jack, I was referring to the other BJ, the one we will be losing to free agency.

I thought he was talking about Denny Neagle.

14. jingoist Posted: November 05, 2005 at 03:14 AM (#1719827)

You can bet your sweet bippy that neither "steroid-man" will be returning to the Orioles.
Sammy is toast; Raffy burned any possible bridges he ever had with his team mates with his fingering of Tejada as his source of the possible steroid.
The O's free up $10M+ by jetisoning those two plus a 41 yr old BJ Surhoff who finally hit bottom last year.
That said they desperatly need a power hitting 1B-man and an every-day LFer. A young catcher with promise should be high on the list as well 'cause the days of Javy catching 120 games are over; he needs to DH 2 out of 5 games.

15. Bmore Boy (Thailand edition) Posted: November 16, 2005 at 08:18 AM (#1733727)

My hope is exhausted. If we're lucky, it'll be a coupla years - but I fully expect the O's to make at least one albatross signing this offseason with the dearth of talent available and Angelos' "best product" philosophy... which is essentially a Yanks/BoSox strategy minus the endless bucks (and intelligent front offices).

Can't we just officially rebuild one year so we can compete sometime in the next ten? We've got some good players coming up a couple years from now, when Cabrera might be a star and Markakis a solid or maybe plus player... but you know we'll be paying someone old $15 mil to rehab by then...

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Friday, October 21, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

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