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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, October 23, 2005
2006 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
Some of the highlights:
Schilling - 14-6, 3.47 ERA
Hansen - 82 IP, 76 K, 3.51 ERA
Foulke - 3.73 ERA
Sanchez - 7-6, 4.24 ERA
Ortiz - 298/392/595, 40 HR, 123 RBI
Pedroia - 275/343/403
Freedom - 270/374/492
Youkilis - .400 OBP
Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Schilling 3.47 14 6 30 24 174.0 166 67 17 30 156
Hansen 3.51 3 2 42 0 82.0 74 32 4 29 76
Timlin 3.67 6 4 77 0 81.0 82 33 6 18 55
Foulke 3.73 6 3 62 0 70.0 64 29 8 18 65
Meredith 4.03 5 3 65 0 76.0 77 34 8 19 52
Arroyo 4.07 12 8 33 30 188.0 194 85 18 47 118
Wells* 4.08 12 9 30 30 194.0 219 88 22 20 94
Papelbon 4.14 9 6 32 22 137.0 129 63 17 45 130
Sanchez 4.24 7 6 23 23 119.0 109 56 15 44 118
Malaska* 4.26 4 3 45 3 76.0 72 36 6 34 62
Delcarmen 4.28 7 5 46 0 61.0 52 29 5 35 66
Lester* 4.30 9 7 25 24 132.0 121 63 13 58 125
Dinardo* 4.30 6 3 29 20 115.0 112 55 10 34 90
Miller 4.33 12 9 27 27 156.0 154 75 14 65 122
Clement 4.33 12 9 31 31 187.0 181 90 19 72 150
Bradford 4.42 5 4 59 0 55.0 55 27 5 22 38
Mantei 4.50 2 2 38 0 36.0 32 18 4 19 38
Alvarez* 4.56 10 8 28 26 146.0 157 74 22 34 99
Wakefield 4.74 12 12 33 32 205.0 213 108 28 70 140
Pauley 4.78 9 8 27 27 158.0 173 84 21 45 97
Gonzalez 4.80 6 6 34 19 137.0 146 73 18 47 89
Bottalico 4.81 2 3 54 0 58.0 57 31 5 30 40
Tomoro 4.84 4 5 34 6 80.0 90 43 12 19 45
Cressend 5.20 5 5 40 3 71.0 77 41 13 22 52
Myers* 5.21 2 2 67 0 38.0 40 22 4 19 21
Harville 5.25 2 3 57 0 60.0 60 35 8 32 47
Perisho* 5.69 3 5 56 2 49.0 52 31 7 27 35
Narveson* 5.81 5 8 25 24 127.0 138 82 20 68 85
Bausher 5.87 4 7 34 11 95.0 102 62 20 44 79
Zink 6.07 6 10 29 19 129.0 142 87 16 82 70
Rozier* 6.58 4 7 21 20 93.0 108 68 13 62 42
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Ortiz* 1b .298 .392 .595 148 560 99 167 42 2 40 123 88 110 0 0
Ramirez lf .292 .389 .563 148 542 99 158 34 1 37 114 82 108 1 2
Nixon* rf .294 .381 .499 113 371 60 109 24 2 16 61 51 61 2 1
Petagine* 1b .270 .374 .492 97 319 53 86 18 1 17 57 53 62 1 2
Youkilis 3b .268 .400 .417 109 343 59 92 25 1 8 42 67 59 2 2
Varitek# c .274 .361 .473 135 457 61 125 29 1 20 71 59 113 4 2
Mueller# 3b .289 .369 .441 137 481 67 139 34 3 11 62 57 67 1 2
Damon* cf .297 .363 .437 145 606 106 180 34 6 13 74 64 66 18 5
Hyzdu rf .242 .355 .457 121 363 76 88 28 1 16 71 61 78 4 3
Renteria ss .299 .357 .419 151 602 93 180 41 2 9 73 55 78 16 8
Millar 1b .271 .357 .421 142 487 63 132 29 1 14 65 57 84 1 2
Olerud* 1b .260 .367 .379 124 388 41 101 25 0 7 50 62 47 0 0
Graffanino 2b .287 .349 .394 92 310 60 89 14 2 5 37 28 43 6 2
Pedroia ss .275 .343 .403 106 400 71 110 20 2 9 47 41 37 5 3
Mirabelli c .241 .319 .428 54 145 19 35 9 0 6 21 15 40 1 0
Moss* rf .273 .333 .401 137 494 82 135 24 3 11 58 42 112 10 4
Shoppach c .233 .312 .436 110 390 56 91 22 0 19 59 40 123 0 0
Cora* 2b .269 .334 .368 127 383 43 103 17 3 5 41 28 41 4 3
Kapler rf .273 .322 .391 106 238 40 65 14 1 4 25 17 39 4 3
Berg ss .267 .337 .353 95 329 45 88 20 1 2 33 35 55 1 0
McCarty 1b .238 .315 .394 105 302 44 72 18 1 9 42 34 67 2 1
Machado 2b .273 .339 .334 133 458 75 125 15 2 3 38 42 61 19 11
Figueroa# 2b .273 .317 .365 116 406 51 111 23 1 4 40 25 28 3 4
West 1b .247 .298 .386 130 466 49 115 28 2 11 49 32 80 1 1
Stern* lf .260 .320 .392 83 288 45 75 19 2 5 31 24 44 17 13
Bailie 1b .239 .284 .406 75 276 34 66 20 1 8 34 17 69 2 1
Pinckney# 3b .253 .292 .386 117 427 63 108 21 3 10 48 20 79 3 2
Sandberg 3b .217 .287 .387 131 442 57 96 31 1 14 55 41 140 2 1
Wooten dh .241 .300 .363 107 353 33 85 19 0 8 40 26 59 0 1
Ramirez# ss .261 .310 .345 115 426 62 111 16 4 4 37 28 62 21 10
Murphy* cf .246 .298 .361 123 427 59 105 20 1 9 48 33 74 6 5
Otness c .256 .295 .337 124 433 44 111 20 0 5 40 20 40 3 3
Ust 3b .234 .271 .359 120 435 47 102 25 1 9 46 19 98 2 2
Name c 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Ortiz* Pr/130
Ramirez Pr/125
Nixon* Vg/105
Petagine* Pr/100
Youkilis Av/100 Pr/100 Av/72
Varitek# Vg/128
Mueller# Pr/180 Av/88
Damon* Vg/70 Av/127 Vg/70
Hyzdu Fr/100 Fr/100
Renteria Av/142
Millar Fr/130 Pr/85 Fr/85
Olerud* Vg/55
Graffanino Vg/100 Av/90 Fr/124 Pr/130
Pedroia Av/100 Av/100
Mirabelli Av/170
Moss* Av/100 Av/100
Shoppach Av/100
Cora* Av/90 Av/109
Kapler Vg/100 Fr/100 Vg/100
Berg Av/100 Av/104 Fr/124 Fr/116 Fr/100 Fr/100
McCarty Av/100 Av/100
Machado Vg/100 Av/100
Figueroa# Vg/100 Vg/100 Av/100
West Pr/100 Fr/100
Stern* Vg/100 Fr/100 Vg/100
Bailie Fr/100
Pinckney# Av/100
Sandberg Av/100 Fr/104
Wooten Fr/76 Av/106 Fr/64
Ramirez# Vg/100 Av/100
Murphy* Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100
Otness Fr/100 Av/100
Ust Vg/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 23, 2005 at 10:23 AM | 31 comment(s)
Related News: Boston, ZIPS
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Dan, can you explain the defense numbers?
Range grade and error rate as a percentage of league average. I really should leave the latter off - projecting error rates for minor leaguers is a nearly futile task.
What are Hansen's numbers based on? Just his short stint in professional baseball?
Yeah. These super-quick college-to-majors guys are annoying. But I couldn't not do a projection for Weeks or Street the last couple of years and I couldn't not do Hansen for next year.
I know ZiPS isn't a playing time projection, but I was wondering, where do the playing time numbers come from then?
I think it's pretty likely that they would be productive major league pitchers next year. AA isn't the majors, but then again, both these guys owned AA to such an extent that ERAs of 4.24 and 4.30 aren't unreasonable translations of what that performance indicates.
Thanks. Can you give any insights on how you came to the range grades? Are you using a published system, or something you created, etc?
Other than that, YAY ZIPS! You have given us a great bullpen!
However, check out his splits vs. LHH for the past few years:
2002: .241/.347/.316
2003: .237/.314/.421
2004: .233/.322/.340
2005: .158/.196/.211
And, how about his wins above replacement (BP's WXRL):
2002: +0.9
2003: -0.2
2004: +0.4
2005: +1.2
We can't expect a repeat of 2005. Still, the 2002-04 Myers is still a solid contributor. During that time his K/BB was 84/61, and if it falls to even we may see something like 2003. So I guess if ZiPS is accurate, Myers will be around replacement level, but it certainly seems pessimistic to me.
Nevertheless, I'm encouraged by a lot of the projections and they seem to justify the Red Sox' sitting tight at the trade deadline. 7 of the top 13 pitchers are in the high minors or just made the bigs.
If it underestimates Wakefield though, I think it overrates Arroyo some. He wasn't the same pitcher after the AS break this year.
Oh, and Pedroia beats that projection handily. You heard it here first. He'll put up a .285 .365 .420 easy.
What about Damon? I like the projection OK but at what price do you bring him back? 3 years, tops, that's for sure but will he command 10 mil per?
Posted 10-18 in Sox Therapy:
I like Pedroia, my guess is he hits .280 with 40 doubles, 10-15 homers, and more BB than K.
He's too short to play major league baseball though. Any chance Dan Duquette can come back, release him and let the Angels pick him up?
No!
Am I right, kevin?
Catfish, relax.
http://www.topplebush.com/photos334.shtml
Btw, if I had to chooose between children getting roids or Kevin Millar coming back... let's load up the syringes
Well, if "even a high level official in Canada" openly calls him that, it must be true. I retract my earlier statement.
A quick search online suggests (unless I missed something, and I may have since it was a very quick search) that the only source for this is Stan Hochman who apparently ignored the fact that Schilling has all sorts of WWII memorabilia in order to focus on the nazi memorabilia from which he drew the same silly conclusion you pretend to be making.
(1) Collecting WWII memorabilia does not make one a nazi. (2) Neither does collecting nazi memorabilia. One can be fascinated without being supportive. (3) Apparently no one has taken Hochman seriously on this until you. (Unless you're Hochman, in which case no one has taken Hochman seriously at all, though again, it's possible I missed something somewhere in my quick search of the internet).
So... are you just trolling then?
Hmm. I'm a Canadian and I can assure you that while we've had a number of politicians and flunkies criticize Bush, none of them are taken that seriously here and many of them are pretty heavily criticized themselves. These same people are pretty bigoted against Americans generally and I wouldn't be too quick to jump into bed with them myself.
I use 0.80 as an MLE base - there's no way Clay's using 0.70; we talked about this awhile back and unless he's drastically changed the way he calculates DTs lately, we're not very different here.
As for my MLEs overrating hitters - of all the minor leaguers , only 12 in professional baseball with 300 PA rate an MLE OBP of .360. Only 9 rate a .500 SLG. And you see a lot of good prospects on that list - Jeremy Hermida, Russell Martin, Justin Huber and a few guys who either have or probably could play at that level like Petagine. The only two real oddball names are Kevin Orie and Rick Short and both were over their heads this year (though I still think Orie's '97 is his real level of ability when he can stay healthy for more than 10 minutes)
Assuming the "he" with the missing antecedent is Bush, I can deny he's a moron. And do. And that has nothing to do with whether or not I agree with his politics. I'm familiar with really smart people. And with really dumb people. Bush (like most people) lies somewhere in between. (No pun intended).
I loathe the guy but wouldn't say that about him. He would, however, be the sort of person who wouldn't let it bother him too much if his friends were torturing people to death, especially if he somehow profitted from it. Not to mention that he's probably nowhere near naturally curious enough to kill someone to feel what it's like to watch him/her die.
But back to the topic at hand...if Schilling does what's projected for him above, the Red Sox will win the division like, to coin a phrase, Secretariat at the Belmont. While he showed some signs of improvement at the tail end of the season, I just don't see it happening.
They just better not trade Manny and get back Erstad, one of the few ways one could do worse than Kevin Millar at 1B.
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