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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, October 27, 2005
2006 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Lee 1b .309 .398 .582 159 593 104 183 44 2 38 114 84 121 14 5 Ramirez 3b .302 .359 .541 142 549 83 166 33 1 32 104 45 75 1 2 Garciaparra ss .287 .335 .483 108 439 66 126 23 6 17 63 27 43 8 3 Barrett c .276 .342 .468 125 410 47 113 29 4 14 58 37 60 0 3 Murton lf .289 .350 .430 137 470 64 136 16 4 14 56 42 77 10 5 Sing 1b .239 .345 .449 121 385 64 92 21 0 20 60 61 109 1 4 Walker* 2b .277 .336 .435 125 451 60 125 26 3 13 57 40 49 1 2 Grieve* rf .242 .342 .409 105 264 34 64 15 1 9 34 39 66 0 0 Cedeno ss .287 .332 .412 113 345 46 99 15 2 8 40 20 63 13 4 Craig# 3b .253 .326 .434 108 348 53 88 19 1 14 50 35 84 4 3 Hairston 2b .273 .350 .378 98 333 44 91 22 2 3 31 31 39 9 9 Fontenot* 2b .262 .340 .381 130 454 63 119 23 5 7 43 46 103 10 8 Burnitz* lf .238 .309 .421 147 541 69 129 26 2 23 79 53 110 4 5 Pie* cf .273 .319 .409 87 330 59 90 11 5 8 33 20 93 17 10 Patterson* cf .252 .298 .418 146 564 73 142 23 4 21 68 36 147 23 8 Johnson* c .226 .332 .335 76 221 27 50 13 1 3 23 34 35 1 2 Kelton lf .240 .289 .391 130 455 55 109 25 1 14 56 30 94 7 4 Soto c .236 .312 .334 98 305 35 72 12 0 6 33 33 84 1 1 Murray cf .253 .316 .347 130 427 58 108 20 4 4 37 34 71 11 10 Lewis 2b .241 .301 .355 129 439 56 106 21 4 7 38 35 113 8 6 Perez# ss .259 .288 .353 140 482 46 125 25 1 6 47 19 43 5 3 Dopirak 1b .227 .271 .382 137 503 62 114 21 0 19 65 28 118 2 2 Hoffpauir* 1b .233 .286 .329 121 416 48 97 18 2 6 41 28 81 2 1 Blanco c .204 .258 .351 81 225 22 46 12 0 7 27 15 39 0 2 Macias# 3b .243 .269 .325 106 206 20 50 9 1 2 18 7 35 3 3 Kopitzke c .219 .280 .255 81 251 18 55 7 1 0 16 17 40 1 2 Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Zambrano 3.40 13 9 32 32 209.0 170 79 15 83 198 Prior 3.43 10 7 26 26 168.0 139 64 18 52 202 Wood 3.76 9 7 25 22 146.0 115 61 18 64 177 Wuertz 3.82 3 3 72 0 73.0 57 31 7 38 88 Williamson 3.86 2 2 42 0 42.0 32 18 4 23 50 van Buren 4.00 3 3 57 0 54.0 41 24 6 30 69 Dempster 4.06 4 3 58 5 82.0 71 37 4 45 80 Maddux 4.14 14 14 35 35 215.0 228 99 30 36 129 Williams 4.36 10 11 29 28 165.0 164 80 17 62 104 Guzman 4.39 3 3 9 9 41.0 42 20 6 10 28 Ohman* 4.50 2 3 65 0 50.0 39 25 7 30 63 Aardsma 4.53 8 10 41 21 141.0 147 71 18 43 103 Rusch* 4.53 7 7 39 18 139.0 152 70 12 46 102 Novoa 4.55 6 6 63 0 83.0 84 42 10 32 70 Ryu 4.59 8 9 26 26 155.0 167 79 19 46 110 Mitre 4.72 7 9 31 23 141.0 144 74 17 58 111 Pignatiell 4.73 7 9 35 24 156.0 160 82 22 55 130 Nolasco 4.73 7 9 27 27 154.0 154 81 24 56 143 Hill* 4.78 6 8 30 22 130.0 117 69 21 65 156 Brownlie 4.91 6 8 25 19 110.0 114 60 17 40 83 Bartosh* 4.98 2 3 53 0 56.0 55 31 9 25 52 Koronka* 5.01 8 12 27 24 151.0 155 84 20 67 110 Oliver* 5.02 5 8 25 20 122.0 138 68 16 39 63 Fox 5.14 1 2 26 0 28.0 24 16 2 22 31 Pinto* 5.15 7 11 28 27 145.0 134 83 15 95 144 Rohlicek* 5.23 3 4 56 0 62.0 55 36 4 49 57 Wellemeyer 5.23 3 6 33 12 86.0 80 50 11 55 86 Leicester 5.77 4 9 38 14 106.0 110 68 17 63 87
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Does Dusty encourage hacktastic-ness?
Wow. Someone's new here.
Those projections for the offense are better than I was expecting--I like Cedeno's especially (particularly compared to the proj for His Neifiness, Team MVP). That Burnitz projection is fugly. That might be a little bit pessimistic, but even so--if the Cubs pick up that 7.5M option, they're nuts.
Absolutely. This is the man who ran Bellhorn out of town and benched Choi. His favorite quote is, 'Sometimes the first pitch is the best pitch you'll see.'
He even had Matt Lawton, briefly aboard specifically for his OBP, swinging at everything. Jerry Hairston, usually good OBP, notched up a .307 leading-off this year.
Neifi and Jose Macias are Baker's heartthrobs. They never saw a pitch they didn't try to hit to a middle infielder.
If the Cubs sent out this lineup:
C- Barrett
1B- Lee
2B- Hairston/Todd Walker/half decent FA
SS- Cedeno/Furcal (in which case Cedeno could play 2B)
3B- Aramis
OF- Murton, fungible OF, good FA signing
I think they could have a pretty solid offense. Not many great OBPs, but a lot of hits, no one would have an awful OBP, and some nice power. Burnitz is not the answer to any question the Cubs want to ask.
He gets a ton of groundball outs. Relies on a sinking fastball. (In any event, he's close to a K an inning. Dude throws in the upper 90s consistently, with tons of movement.)
I agree Burnitz might have a pessimistic projection. But he'll be 37 next year, strikes out a ton, and just posted a .322 OBP. He should be a 4th OF at best now.
You did see the part where I said the Cubs would be nuts to pick up his option, right?
That wouldn't show up in DIPS, would it?
I don't know, but his peripherals have been pretty consistent for the past 3 years. His K rate actually rose a bit last year (though his HRs were up some).
I know, of course. But really, aren't groundballs generally supposed to allow more hits than flyballers (HR excepted)? I'm not saying he doesn't have skill at preventing hits, just since the projection is based on DIPS I didn't expect such a low H/IP.
Oh, and if Murton gets 470 ABs, I guarantee he hits more than 14 homers.
I think you're right. I can see why 14 were projected, but I think you're right.
Also file under "fat chance of that happening." The 470 AB part, I mean.
I agree Burnitz might have a pessimistic projection. But he'll be 37 next year, strikes out a ton, and just posted a .322 OBP.
I'm sure ZiPS is still seeing signal from 2003 and before. It seems to be a reasonable projection to me.
- I believe most of the hitter numbers, including Pie, Cedeno, and -- though this hurts -- Patterson.
- ZIPS doesn't believe that Murton's power spike this year was for real. Fair enough, I suppose, though .430 seems a little low.
- ZIPS likes Brandon Sing almost as much as I do. An .800 OPS isn't any great shakes for a first baseman, but it makes for a nice lefty-masher off the bench. Also worth noting that he's projected to have the best walk rate -- by far -- of anyone on the roster. Not bad for a guy who will spend the whole year in Iowa.
- If Angel Guzman gets 9 starts at Wrigley this year, I'll cry warm tears of joy (and yes, I know ZIPS isn't a playing time estimator).
- I'm surprised ZIPS likes Ryu more than Mitre, Nolasco, Hill, and Pinto, the last of whom ZIPS doesn't like much at all. Ryu's the same age as Nolasco and Pinto and had -- to my eye -- worse numbers this year and last.
- This team needs a *big* bat in right field. This should be priority #1 this winter.
- And no, not Jeromy Burnitz.
1) Who should be the Cubs starting right-fielder on Opening Day 2006?
2) Who will be the Cubs starting right-fielder on Opening Day 2006?
I'll say (1) Brian Giles and (2) Jacque Jones.
1 - Giles 2 - Burnitz
His high double play rate would negate this to some extent. I don't know if DIPS accounts for this or not.
I'll go out on a crazy limb and say that Pie and Patterson BOTH are starting on opening day.
Why say it in so soft a manner? Why not say the obvious apparent truth--Giles is too old for a huge contract. So no matter how much money the Cubs seem to have, they will acquire an albatross if they sign him to more than a 2 yr deal, and their future moves will be restricted.
.304 - 13 HR - 487 AB .360/.444
He may hit more homers, but it would mean another power spike for 2006 - he's not there yet.
By the time this happens, I'll long since have switched to the Devil Rays.
I'm not sure I agree with this. Of course there is some price and contract term beyond which Giles becomes a categorically bad signing, but the utility function varies among teams. The Cubs seem to be beginning the downside of their "success" cycle, with their core talent signed for one or two more years at most. At that point (i.e., Years 3 and 4), and assuming a change in manager, the Cubs will likely have several positions filled by players at or around the league minimum. I don't foresee Giles's salary significantly restricting the team's moves at that point.
The Cubs seem to have between $20-30 million to spend this offseason. They desperately need a slugging outfielder. They really don't *need* anything else, although of course they could upgrade in any number of places. Giles is clearly the best FA on the market. Here are his WARP3s since coming over to the NL seven years ago:
9.2
10.3
8.7
11.6
8.3
6.2 (first year in PETCO)
8.7
Even with a subpar (for him) 2004, that's a weighted three-year average of 7.8. (If you're curious, that's exactly what Vlad Guerrero has posted since his breakout year in 1998.)
For a team with the payroll and playoff aspirations of the Cubs, it's perfectly reasonable to pay $2 - 2.5 million per marginal win. I would happily sign Giles to a three-year deal at up to $15 million per, and would consider a fourth year triggered by performance and playing time. This might be more than other teams should be willing to pay, but that fact alone wouldn't necessarily make it a bad deal for the Cubs.
Those projections look pretty good. What does Cedeno look like on defense? Is he going to help the pitching staff or hurt it?
I think with a good off-season the Cubs can be right on track for the playoffs next year. What would you folks think about Manny? Would his contract be worthwhile for you?
Despite his VORPS over the last few years, I would be very reluctant to go beyond 2 years for a player his age.
I actually think the Cubs have the potential to be pretty good, and if Giles can get them over the hump, they may have to swallow hard and do it. Worry about 2008 in 2007.
Urge...to kill...rising.
Urge...to kill...rising.
You'll be explaining this forever, Dan. Somewhere I suppose is an explanation of what ZiPS is and is not, that's probably useful to link as new people are exposed to it.
I'd happily go three for Giles. The Cubs desperately need a player like Giles in their lineup. His counting stats are down because of his ballpark, and his adjusted stats have been steady as a rock for years.
A three year commitment covers ages 35-37. It looks to me like Giles is likely to maintain his current level over that time, more or less. Ages 38 and 39 are more of a concern, but I wouldn't be horrified if the Cubs signed him for four years. It would be the kind of move the Cubs have always make historically, but I'd rather see them do it with someone like Giles than someone like Moises Alou (although Alou had his best year in the last year of his deal, go figure).
At first I was thinking it would be better to get Furcal and forget Giles, but now I'm not so sure. In terms of pure offensive impact, Giles is the better hitter, but Furcal is at a good FA age, he's a good fit to Baker's approach and he's also well above average for his position. However, the Cubs have much worse alternatives in the OF than they do at SS. I'm officially writing off Cedeño, but I think the difference between Furcal and, say, Neifi is not as great as the difference between Giles and whatever Hendry can fashion out of Silly Putty and Scotch tape.
Five years would be too much, but I say Hendry should go for it.
It might. The latter years of the Sosa contract kept us out of the big free agent runs over the past few years (Vlad, Beltran, Pedro, Sheff, etc.). I've got no idea who'll be available over the next two or three seasons, but there is bound to be someone.
This doesn't mean we should horde cash until Miguel Cabrera shows up on the market, but I'd rather see the Cubs try and pay a premium to limit the contract to two years.
Furcal would be pretty nice. A Walker/Cedeno platoon at 2B strikes me as effective. It would help allieve Dusty's fear of youngsters while letting us see if Cedeno is going to be a useful major leaguer.
A Walker/Cedeno platoon is the same thing as Walker getting the starting job - as soon as Cedeno has a 3-for-15 week or Walker gets 3 hits in a game, bye bye platoon.
I disagree. Baker doesn't need a poor performance from the young guy or a good performance from the old guy to justify giving the full-time job to the old guy.
Also, it's unlikely to play out that way. A Walker/Cedeño platoon isn't going to turn into Walker getting the job full time. It's going to turn into Neifi Perez getting the job full-time.
Fair enough, which is why I wouldn't go beyond a certain price or certain length on Giles. My only point was that that price and length might appropriately be higher for the Cubs than for most other teams.
I like Furcal, a lot, but getting Giles would be good for this Cubs team. I'd suggest bringing him in a the hitting instructor / manager also so maybe a few of these Hacking Mass superstars would pick up the idea of getting on base once in a while...
Probably the wildest one they have, or second to Ryan Howard.
Howard projects at a ridiculous .322/.397/.628, 44 homers, 127 RBI. Not quite as good as Pujols, but better than Derek Lee, all while challenging Adam Dunn for the lead with 173 strikeouts.
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